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By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 19:42

As it's my team I think I'll just leave it. United with a couple of injuries up front too so leave it at that. I think he'll change those United percentage though surely. 7/4 and West Ham about the same price?

On the day a profit of £ 5.04 so happy with that.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 19:48

his little man is solid yellow, so that should be final now. can't say i agree with them being so close in % terms and neither does the market but it's often been like that with them. i do think man u maybe a little short but they've been backed in since i looked earlier when they were about evens.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 22:11

results in, not such a good round for them again there. -25% for the 8 games. There were some striking %s again, notably with both Manchester sides' games but this time it didn't help them so much. That 'edge' is getting narrower, up 7% overall. If they do tomorrow's game I'll add it in.

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	20.5%	27.7%	51.8%
PB's Implied Odds	4.88	3.61	1.93
Betfair Odds	5.4	4	1.76
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 0	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£40.00	£23.16	£63.16
P/L	-£10.00	£30.00	£13.16	£33.16

Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	33.6%	32.1%	34.3%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	3.12	2.92
Betfair Odds	2.42	3.2	3.55
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.4%	35.5%	29.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	2.82	3.44
Betfair Odds	2.1	3.4	4.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£19.09	£-	£43.00	£62.09
P/L	£9.09	-£10.00	£33.00	£32.09

Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	25.0%	36.3%	38.7%
PB's Implied Odds	4	2.75	2.58
Betfair Odds	9.6	4.9	1.43
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 3	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.0%	32.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.1	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	76.3%	15.5%	8.2%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.45	12.2
Betfair Odds	1.56	4.1	8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 5 - 0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£15.60	£13.23	£11.43	£40.26
P/L	£5.60	£3.23	£1.43	£10.26

Arsenal v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	33.5%	33.1%	33.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.99	3.02	2.99
Betfair Odds	2.76	3.4	2.86
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 2 - 1	Lose	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£15.38	£15.38
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	£5.38	-£14.62

Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	3.41	2.87
Betfair Odds	1.84	3.75	5.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£80.00	£80.00	£80.00	£240.00
Total Return	£34.69	£53.23	£92.97	£180.89
Total p/l	-£45.31	-£26.77	£12.97	-£59.11
% p/l	-56.6%	-33.5%	16.2%	-24.6%

Previous Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Previous Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Previous p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27

Cumulative Stakes	£680.00	£670.00	£680.00	£2,030.00
Cumulative Returns	£754.41	£553.83	£864.92	£2,173.16
Cumulative p/l	£74.41	-£116.17	£184.92	£143.16
Cumulative % p/l	10.9%	-17.3%	27.2%	7.1%

*Key to PB rating basis
A Actual Line up
B Predicted Line up
C No Player data

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 23:53

EAW

Thanks as ever

By:

The Dragon When: 15 Mar 21 21:28

moral of tye story is lay draws and back aways

By:

everyone's a winner When: 20 Mar 21 09:26

well the 'Dragon method' would have certainly worked on the Fulham game last night

. Unfortunately I backed Fulham

. Anyway, here is PB's 'Morning Line' for the weekend premier league games. He's got them upside down again, so, as usual, please double check my handiwork before placing any bets. Not assessed these for myself yet.

Brighton v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	34.8%	30.70%	34.50%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3.26	2.9
Betfair Odds	1.7	3.65	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

West Ham v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	37.1%	30.4%	32.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.7	3.29	3.08
Betfair Odds	2.98	3.55	2.56
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	32.9%	32.6%	34.5%
PB's Implied Odds	3.04	3.07	2.9
Betfair Odds	3.2	3.5	2.48
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

*Key to PB rating basis
A. Actual Line Up
B. Predicted Line Up
C. No Player Data

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 20 Mar 21 09:50

EAW

I've dropped out from following them. Percentages are shown now then when the teams are announced a 6/4 shot could become 2/7?

I'll give it a miss. Probably have a look to see how they've done but that's my lot.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 20 Mar 21 10:30

Hi Lou, that's fine, it was more hassle than it was worth last week, with the last minute changes. I'll do the tables for these 3 and then let it drop. With the international break it's as good as time as any and, as we get to the end of the season things will get more erratic anyway.

I think it's interesting what they are doing but I don't trust the %s enough to blindly follow them and the wild last minute swings are not confidence inspiring. We get that team news is important but the swings are too great, implies there's something not quite right with the underlying ratings data, or the underlying ratings data is insignificant in their model.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 20 Mar 21 12:12

EAW

Had a good run lately with my 'Scores' bet. Today I've done Hamburg @ 6/4. They are Evens to win Outright.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 20 Mar 21 15:34

that's good to hear, I see you got a winner there at 2-0. My picks this last week have been shocking. i've kept the bank afloat with some in play trading but my match odds bets pre k/o been bad since last saturday. I will lay brighton later, so that should guarantee them a win

By:

duey When: 20 Mar 21 16:42

followed the tipsters this morning...they are ****, better off using a monkey!

By:

scandanavian_haven When: 20 Mar 21 16:43

^ there's no such thing as a successful/publicly available betting system, it's common sense anyone making profit with a system would not be sharing it, anyone selling tips is just a chancer, anyone buying tips is just a mug.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 20 Mar 21 17:55

To be fair they're not selling anything just advertising their reckonings on their web page. It's just one page.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 20 Mar 21 18:07

EAW

Feyenoord at 7pm. 2/5 to win (6/5) massive difference.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 20 Mar 21 18:38

i'm on the feyenoord one now as well, think it's a reasonable shout, all things considered. emmen not lost in last 4 but they are bottom

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 20 Mar 21 18:40

Exactly ..... let's see Feyenoord get 4?

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 21 Mar 21 14:20

EAW

Bit unlucky yesterday.

Today Vitesse Arnhem are 4/6 ............... (5/4)

By:

everyone's a winner When: 21 Mar 21 14:54

yeah, i am ashamed to admit i greened at 1-0, was afraid of the draw from the recent form. i'm keeping my powder dry today for the arsenal lay. arsenal fans can rest assured of a win though, as i'm on a roll of about 7 incorrect premier league match odds bets atm

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 21 Mar 21 15:09

Ok good luck. My team have now played about 40 mins and it's still 0-0 which is ok.

By:

keyboard_line When: 21 Mar 21 15:33

just looked at the site, if im reading it right theyve got leverkusen an 82% chance, implied odds of 1.23, just had a wee back of them at 2.18, away to kick off

By:

keyboard_line When: 21 Mar 21 15:38

1-0 down after 4 mins

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 21 Mar 21 15:41

keyboard

Yes we've found some of their percentages are an absolute mile out. How can a team they make 2/9 roughly be 11/10 on here?

By:

keyboard_line When: 21 Mar 21 15:44

ah right, the first prediction had them 37.8, 2nd 82.8, 3rd 81.2...maybe they thought hertha were going to play with 10 men

By:

keyboard_line When: 21 Mar 21 16:22

just the 3-0 at half time, though i fully expect when i return there will have been an incredible 2nd half comeback

By:

everyone's a winner When: 21 Mar 21 16:22

same with man city the other day. that's the thing with the team selections / player data, there must be something really lacking in the underlying ratings but then why post them at all.

i might actually get my arsenal lay!

By:

everyone's a winner When: 21 Mar 21 20:05

doing anything on the villa - spurs game? i thought spurs were going to be shorter and i was tempted to lay but not so much at 2.5

Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	29.8%	35.1%	35.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.36	2.85	2.85
Betfair Odds	3.1	3.5	2.52
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

By:

everyone's a winner When: 21 Mar 21 22:28

as promised, here is data incorporating the 3 game from this weekend. Their %s would have steered you in the right direction on the West Ham game but not the other two. Will probably stop doing this from now on, as I think our interest has waned, along with their "profit margin" of late

. Still they'd be up 6% over the period we looked at, so no harm done.

Brighton v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	34.6%	31.2%	34.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.89	3.21	2.92
Betfair Odds	1.7	3.65	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 3 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

West Ham v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.7%	29.1%	35.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.8	3.44	2.84
Betfair Odds	3.65	3.6	2.2
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 3 - 3	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£36.00	£18.33	£54.33
P/L	-£10.00	£26.00	£8.33	£24.33

Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	29.8%	35.1%	35.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.36	2.85	2.85
Betfair Odds	3.1	3.5	2.52
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£14.76	£-	£-	£14.76
P/L	£4.76	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£15.24

	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£30.00	£30.00	£30.00	£90.00
Total Return	£14.76	£36.00	£18.33	£69.09
Total p/l	-£15.24	£6.00	-£11.67	-£20.91
% p/l	-50.8%	20.0%	-38.9%	-23.2%

Previous Stakes	£680.00	£670.00	£680.00	£2,030.00
Previous Returns	£754.41	£553.83	£864.92	£2,173.16
Previous p/l	£74.41	-£116.17	£184.92	£143.16

Cumulative Stakes	£710.00	£700.00	£710.00	£2,120.00
Cumulative Returns	£769.17	£589.83	£883.25	£2,242.25
Cumulative p/l	£59.17	-£110.17	£173.25	£122.25
Cumulative % p/l	8.3%	-15.7%	24.4%	5.8%

*Key to PB rating basis
A Actual Line up
B Predicted Line up
C No Player data

By:

PBanker When: 17 Apr 21 10:52

New predictions now available for 17. - 18.4 games.

By:

PBanker When: 30 Apr 21 11:25

New predictions now available for weekend games.

By:

PBanker When: 08 May 21 04:36

New predictions now available for 8. - 9.5 games.

By:

PBanker When: 14 May 21 19:02

New predictions now available for 15. - 16.5 games.