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By:

everyone's a winner When: 08 Mar 21 19:27

PB, it's because you have the games the opposite way round on the website to the BF coupon and I didn't spot it, so yes I've inadvertently switched them but..

at the time I posted and took a screenshot

West Ham Leeds were 34.8, 33.3, 31.9
Chelsea Everton were 35.9, 37.6, 26.5

you've changed the chelsea %s completely since then to 62.6, 20.1 and 17.3

By:

everyone's a winner When: 08 Mar 21 19:32

It would only alter Leeds from a Lay to a Back

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.9%	37.6%	26.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.66	3.77
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.8%	33.3%	31.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3	3.13
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

but with those new %s it is completely different..

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	62.6%	20.1%	17.3%
PB's Implied Odds	1.6	4.98	5.78
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Back

West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.4%	32.9%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.91	3.04	3.06
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

By:

everyone's a winner When: 08 Mar 21 19:56

if that's to do with you basing it on actual team news / line-ups, then it's amazing we haven't had an issue with that before. I notice the west ham %s have just changed based on actual line up data but not by much. for chelsea to go from 35.9 to 62% , or everton from 26% to 17% is some team news!?

By:

PBanker When: 08 Mar 21 20:16

EAW: Aha, you must have checked those percentages just after i added the "no-player-data" percentages and before "predicted-player-data" versions were added (which by the way were maybe just couple of minutes apart). Maybe you have noticed ( or not since we still haven't made a proper info page) but just to make sure: There are 3 versions of the probabilities of almost all games. The one deemed most accurate is the one visible without clicking a game row. Here's the order:

A. Most accurate: Probabilities composed with actual lineup data. If this is available you should see this little fully yellow man-figure at the end of the row.
B. Second most accurate: Probabilities composed with predicted missing players. Figure is only half yellow.
C. Basic percentages: Probabilities composed without player data. Figure is gray.

The percentages don't usually change that much between A and B, but between A/B and C the change might be quite big since they are calculated differently, like in this case.
Anyhow you can see all versions by clicking the game row.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 08 Mar 21 20:49

PBanker

So following your figures there's no point actually striking a bet until an hour before the start when the teams are in?

By:

PBanker When: 08 Mar 21 23:12

Lou
Ideally yes, if you can wait for lineup versions, that's what i would recommend. For Eng.Premier we get those versions online usually about 40-60 mins before game starts but in other leagues, say like Championship lineups might sometimes be announced too late to be used. But like i said above, the percentages composed with predicted players give you ALMOST as good results as 'lineup percentages' on long term average. There is a difference but not as big as one might think. I personally use both versions depending on whether i have time to wait for the line-ups.

But what comes to basic percentages (no player data used) one should consider these more like a placeholder for games that don't have any player data available yet, but are going to be updated later. They are not totally unusable, but there's a bigger gap on how well they fare against probabilities calculated with either kind of player data.

Since we still have not figured out how to make the whole website more intuitive on the differences between all the percentages, i have tried to upload the 'predicted-player-data' versions right after the 'no-player-data' versions to avoid these kind of situations.. only this time it was not fast enough!

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 09 Mar 21 00:36

The wrong odds went against me but I got away with one the other day so swings and roundabouts. I lost £7.86 over the two Monday night games.

By:

tobermory When: 09 Mar 21 02:44

Didn't follow the game or look at the line ups but what could possibly have happened to change Chelsea from 36% to 63%

By:

everyone's a winner When: 09 Mar 21 07:48

I think they must have signed a couple of superstar players and slotted them in seamlessly

. Lou, you wouldn't have got much from yesterday, even with the new numbers in, or the original numbers the right way round, so not much damage done. In fact me pitting Leeds as a lay rather than a back will have saved you a couple of quid. Small comfort I know.

We're going to have to watch these little yellow men, if we carry on with this. It's not always going to be practical to wait until so close to k/o for the numbers, so at some point there's bound to be a decision to make about whether we take them at stage B or stage C. Clearly stage A is a no-no.

Burnley v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	24.0%	30.5%	45.5%
PB's Implied Odds	4.17	3.28	2.2
Betfair Odds	5.9	3.95	1.71
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 1	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£39.50	£24.08	£63.58
P/L	-£10.00	£29.50	£14.08	£33.58

Sheff Utd v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.3%	32.9%	34.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.1	3.04	2.87
Betfair Odds	3.75	3.55	2.18
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

Aston Villa v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	35.1%	34.2%	30.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	2.92	3.31
Betfair Odds	2.48	3.3	3.35
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.76	£33.00	£-	£49.76
P/L	£6.76	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.76

Brighton v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.5%	33.7%	33.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	2.97	2.96
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.25	3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.02	£-	£30.00	£46.02
P/L	£6.02	-£10.00	£20.00	£16.02

West Brom v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.6%	34.0%	32.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	2.94	3.09
Betfair Odds	2.56	3.3	3.15
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.41	£33.00	£-	£49.41
P/L	£6.41	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.41

Liverpool v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	72.2%	19.2%	8.6%
PB's Implied Odds	1.39	5.21	11.63
Betfair Odds	1.44	5	9
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 0 - 1	Lose	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£12.50	£-	£12.50
P/L	-£10.00	£2.50	-£10.00	-£17.50

Man City v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.8%	34.8%	30.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	2.87	3.29
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£29.61	£-	£76.00	£105.61
P/L	£19.61	-£10.00	£66.00	£75.61

Spurs v Palace	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	42.7%	32.1%	25.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.34	3.12	3.97
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	62.6%	20.1%	17.3%
PB's Implied Odds	1.6	4.98	5.78
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Back
End Result 2 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.30	£13.23	£-	£29.53
P/L	£6.30	£3.23	-£10.00	-£0.47

West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.4%	32.9%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.91	3.04	3.06
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 2 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00

	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£100.00	£100.00	£100.00	£300.00
Total Return	£95.10	£131.23	£130.08	£356.41
Total p/l	-£4.90	£31.23	£30.08	£56.41
% p/l	-4.9%	31.2%	30.1%	18.8%

Previous Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Previous Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Previous p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27

Cumulative Stakes	£700.00	£690.00	£700.00	£2,090.00
Cumulative Returns	£814.82	£631.83	£902.03	£2,348.68
Cumulative p/l	£114.82	-£58.17	£202.03	£258.68
Cumulative % p/l	16.4%	-8.4%	28.9%	12.4%

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 09 Mar 21 08:24

PBanker

Just to clarify then are you saying that once the teams are announced you change the percentages accordingly if required for EVERY match?

By:

PBanker When: 12 Mar 21 22:20

Lou
Yes, although some updates might take more time (even if lineups would be announced on time) because the way our automation works..
Just updated the weekend games with predicted missing players.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 12 Mar 21 23:19

hmmmm think I'll wait till tomorrow an once teams come out.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 09:47

i'm going to do the numbers now based on his predicted news, like we have done other weekends, then see what time it gets updated again. Let's face it, the only really fair test of this would be to take the final figures just before k/o and the BF price at the time but, realistically I won't be able to keep doing that every time, so most weekends I'll have to take a snapshot at one point or other. An alternative would be just to do the 'post match analysis' with his historical figures after the weekend, if we keep a record of the BF odds. I haven't made up my mind tbh, so i'll do it this way for now and see how it goes.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 10:07

i've added in his rating key, A, B or C to avoid confusion. After my error switching games last time, I'd suggest you double check anything before placing real bets!

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	22.8%	27.00%	50.20%
PB's Implied Odds	4.39	3.7	1.99
Betfair Odds	5.4	4.1	1.73
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	36.0%	29.5%	34.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.78	3.39	2.9
Betfair Odds	2.38	3.25	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back

Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.5%	30.4%	34.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	3.29	2.93
Betfair Odds	2	3.5	4.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	4.9%	11.7%	83.4%
PB's Implied Odds	20.41	8.55	1.2
Betfair Odds	11.5	5.4	1.36
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back

Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	34.0%	33.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.94	3	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	76.1%	15.9%	8.0%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.29	12.5
Betfair Odds	1.55	4.4	7.6
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay

Arsenal v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.8%	35.8%	28.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.79	3.52
Betfair Odds	2.64	3.5	2.94
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.0%	30.4%	34.6%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.29	2.89
Betfair Odds	1.95	3.65	4.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

*Key to PB ratings
A. Most accurate: Probabilities composed with actual lineup data.
B. Second most accurate: Probabilities composed with predicted missing players.
C. Basic percentages: Probabilities composed without player data.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 11:59

Leeds V Chelsea actual teams in, very little difference to original predictions so I'm on all three.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 12:09

yeah, i'm laying chelsea anyway, not going so far as to back Leeds !

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	20.5%	27.70%	51.80%
PB's Implied Odds	4.88	3.61	1.93
Betfair Odds	5.4	4	1.76
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 14:14

Palace game updated..

Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	33.6%	32.1%	34.3%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	3.12	2.92
Betfair Odds	2.42	3.2	3.55
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 14:17

Yes I'm on but left the Draw as very close to true odds.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 14:19

agreed, done the same

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 17:02

eveton game, numbers changed a bit for burnley and draw but same outcome. i've laid everton and backed burnley

Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	35.4%	35.5%	29.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	2.82	3.44
Betfair Odds	2.1	3.4	4.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 17:26

I agree with you EAW the Burnley odds are out but sticking with the formula I've done all three.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 19:17

Man City just changed from 83% to 38%? It's just 45 mins before the start and a couple of my bets already layed? can't see PBP keeping this up, changing their percentages for every game under an hour before the start so how reliable is it. Why bother putting them up beforehand at all when it just confuses us?

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 19:24

nah, it's like he had the 3 and the 8 the wrong way round! same the other day with 63 and 36. i know it's just a coincidence really but how come we didn't get caught out with this the other weeks? actually now i think of it, there were some last minute changes but thought he said they were a bug?

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 19:27

Managed to get out of my bets so back with the three predictions: BACK FULHAM - BACK DRAW - LAY CITY

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 19:29

new figures. i'm not laying man c anyway, i think they'll win. pleased with the burnley win anyway.

Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	25.0%	36.3%	38.7%
PB's Implied Odds	4	2.75	2.58
Betfair Odds	9.6	4.9	1.43
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

By:

everyone's a winner When: 13 Mar 21 21:54

they should have stuck with the original City numbers, or something closer. That was too much of a swing there. Not that it did me any good, I wasn't confident enough to back them, when I saw the changed team and Fulham looked up for it at the start of the game.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 13 Mar 21 23:18

Yes City game done for me but I still won £3.22 for £2 stakes over the four games so good again.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 12:51

new figures for southampton game, minimal changes from B to A. i've laid brighton.

Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	35.0%	32.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.1	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 13:27

I missed that game. Oh well will get the last ones.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 14:50

probably going to sit this one out..

Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	76.3%	15.5%	8.2%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.45	12.2
Betfair Odds	1.56	4.1	8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 14:54

I'm sticking with it, followed all three bets.

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 16:52

Backed the Draw and Layed Spurs in their game with Arsenal. Left Arsenal bet alone as price exact. Hope those figures don't change though as PRp hasn't changed anything yet since teams announced so going on their original figures.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 16:56

i've laid arsenal but that's just because i fancy spurs to get something, rather than anything to do with PB. I'll post up his numbers again when he does them. wish i'd followed you to back Leicester! went for it in play at 1.75, just as it suspended for goal 1, before i got matched

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 17:08

Yes a nice Treble up for me in the Leicester game, won £5.04

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 17:22

Ten minutes till the off and still PB hasn't changed the percentages put up hours ago. It's far too late in the day now as people would have had their bets. I knew it was too much to ask for them to update the percentages once the teams were announced but don't see the point of following their percentages UNTIL the teams are announced as things could drastically change?

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 17:28

i know, i think he's mentioned before some automatic feed, so they've probably got links to another site, which don't always work. probably why he mentions 'a bug' in the past. they'll probably change them at some point but too late but it does make a bit of a mockery of testing the model, if you couldn't get the bets on in time.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 18:29

it's on there now. would still have been lay-back-lay anyway

By:

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B When: 14 Mar 21 18:38

One minute before the off though? Ridiculous.

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 18:58

not even. i stopped checking, after game had kicked off but had a look at ht

By:

everyone's a winner When: 14 Mar 21 19:35

final game is up. i am going with the lay of man u and the back of west ham on this, though have my doubts. will you be able to go against your own team!?

Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	3.41	2.87
Betfair Odds	1.84	3.75	5.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back