that was quick lou! here's my table. everything does point to a man city win, what is it now 19 in a row? but I couldn't resist putting a few quid on west ham at the price - did it at 14 yesterday. anyway gl to all as always.

Man City v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	84.0%	11.10%	4.90%
PB's Implied Odds	1.19	9.01	20.41
Betfair Odds	1.29	6.6	12.5
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
West Brom v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	25.7%	27.4%	46.9%
PB's Implied Odds	3.89	3.65	2.13
Betfair Odds	4.6	3.65	1.94
Implied recommendation	Back	Leave	Lay
Leeds v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.1%	34.1%	31.8%
PB's Implied Odds	2.93	2.93	3.14
Betfair Odds	2.28	3.8	3.25
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Newcastle v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	29.9%	35.6%	34.5%
PB's Implied Odds	3.34	2.81	2.9
Betfair Odds	3.6	3.3	2.36
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Palace v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.3%	32.9%	33.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3	3.04	2.96
Betfair Odds	3.8	3.3	2.28
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Leicester v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.5%	33.4%	33.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.99	2.99	3.02
Betfair Odds	2.64	3.45	2.98
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
Spurs v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.0%	34.3%	31.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.94	2.92	3.15
Betfair Odds	1.57	4.3	7.4
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Chelsea v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.2%	35.0%	30.8%
PB's Implied Odds	2.92	2.86	3.25
Betfair Odds	2.32	3.4	3.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Sheff Utd v Liverpool	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	10.4%	18.1%	71.5%
PB's Implied Odds	9.62	5.52	1.4
Betfair Odds	9.2	5.7	1.39
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

yes - I could see every result was positive for the model, possibly the first time that's happened. You must be about 70-75% up. Saturday's have been better than Sundays all along, possibly coincidentally, so it will definitely be interesting to see what happens today.

EAW

I have sent you a message.

Cheers

So over the two days I ended up winning £22.59 having laid out a total of £42 so a profit of roughly 52% which is fantastic,

Roll on next week and well done PBanker

here they are in a table..

Man City v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	77.4%	15.60%	7.00%
PB's Implied Odds	1.29	6.41	14.29
Betfair Odds	1.24	7.2	16.5
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Burnley v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	10.0%	14.6%	75.4%
PB's Implied Odds	10	6.85	1.33
Betfair Odds	4.2	3.4	2.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	17.6%	23.1%	59.3%
PB's Implied Odds	5.68	4.33	1.69
Betfair Odds	3.9	3.6	2.14
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Palace v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	4.7%	10.7%	84.6%
PB's Implied Odds	21.28	9.35	1.18
Betfair Odds	8.4	5	1.46
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Fulham v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	30.7%	34.7%	34.6%
PB's Implied Odds	3.26	2.88	2.89
Betfair Odds	4.1	3.65	2.04
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
West Brom v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%
PB's Implied Odds	20.83	7.87	1.21
Betfair Odds	4.4	3.85	1.93
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Liverpool v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	32.5%	28.4%	39.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	3.52	2.56
Betfair Odds	2.32	3.65	3.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

Over the day I lost £2.76 on the three games.  The Palace v United Draw helped get most of it back or would have been much worse.

Let's see how tomorrow goes.

those selections look grim

Morning all, that was the worst set of results for the model, since we started evaluating it, the first minus over a complete set of fixtures, though it was only 7 games and not a full set of 10. You'd be 36% down on your stakes if you'd followed it strictly this week, bringing the cumulative p/l down to +11%

Man City v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	77.4%	15.6%	7.0%
PB's Implied Odds	1.29	6.41	14.29
Betfair Odds	1.24	7.2	16.5
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Burnley v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	10.0%	14.6%	75.4%
PB's Implied Odds	10	6.85	1.33
Betfair Odds	4.2	3.4	2.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 1 - 1	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£13.13	£-	£-	£13.13
P/L	£3.13	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£16.87
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	17.6%	23.1%	59.3%
PB's Implied Odds	5.68	4.33	1.69
Betfair Odds	3.9	3.6	2.14
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£13.85	£-	£13.85
P/L	-£10.00	£3.85	-£10.00	-£16.15
Palace v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	4.7%	10.7%	84.6%
PB's Implied Odds	21.28	9.35	1.18
Betfair Odds	8.4	5	1.46
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£11.35	£-	£-	£11.35
P/L	£1.35	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£18.65
Fulham v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	30.7%	34.7%	34.6%
PB's Implied Odds	3.26	2.88	2.89
Betfair Odds	4.1	3.65	2.04
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
West Brom v Everton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%
PB's Implied Odds	20.83	7.87	1.21
Betfair Odds	4.4	3.85	1.93
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 0 - 1	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£12.94	£13.51	£19.30	£45.75
P/L	£2.94	£3.51	£9.30	£15.75
Liverpool v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.5%	28.4%	39.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	3.52	2.56
Betfair Odds	2.32	3.65	3.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 1	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£17.58	£-	£33.00	£50.58
P/L	£7.58	-£10.00	£23.00	£20.58
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£70.00	£70.00	£70.00	£210.00
Total Return	£55.00	£27.36	£52.30	£134.66
Total p/l	-£15.00	-£42.64	-£17.70	-£75.34
% p/l	-21.4%	-60.9%	-25.3%	-35.9%
Previous Stakes	£530.00	£520.00	£530.00	£1,580.00
Previous Returns	£664.72	£473.24	£719.65	£1,857.61
Previous p/l	£134.72	[color=red]    -£46.76	£189.65	£277.61
Cumulative Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Cumulative Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Cumulative p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27
Cumulative % p/l	20.0%	-15.2%	28.7%	11.3%

Worth looking into other ways of using the data- requiring a certain percentage 'edge' for example, so only targeting the ones that represent alleged strong value. Doing something with the selections that have two backs and one lay in the mix because you're creating a possible three loss outcome for that game, might be something else to consider.

I'm not convinced by the prices thrown out, but as something that flags up stuff out of line you never know when something is useful.

Games added so here we go again, hoping for better results than midweek :)

Done all of today's again 12 bets @ £2

Sunday:

I've only layed West Brom in their game as the other two outcomes are very close to Betfair prices.   Haven't touched the Liverpool V Fulham Draw either.

So 9 bets @ £2

Call them home lads!

Another very good weekend for their probabilities, up 36%. Only the Sheffield, Liverpool and Spurs games going the wrong way for them effectively. I did alright myself today with the Man U and Fulham wins, you must be a good % up again Lou, as well.

Burnley v Arsenal    [/b]   

Home

Draw

Away

Total

PB's Probability        ||        24.0%        ||        30.5%        ||        45.5%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        4.17        ||        3.28        ||        2.2        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        5.9        ||        3.95        ||        1.71        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 1 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £39.50         ||         £24.08         ||         £63.58         ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||         £29.50           ||         £14.08           ||         £33.58           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Sheff Utd v Southampton    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        32.3%        ||        32.9%        ||        34.8%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        3.1        ||        3.04        ||        2.87        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        3.75        ||        3.55        ||        2.18        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 2        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£30.00          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Aston Villa v Wolves     [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        35.1%        ||        34.2%        ||        30.2%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.85        ||        2.92        ||        3.31        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.48        ||        3.3        ||        3.35        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 0        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.76         ||         £33.00         ||         £-           ||         £49.76         ||
P/L        ||         £6.76           ||         £23.00           ||        -£10.00          ||         £19.76           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Brighton v Leicester    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        32.5%        ||        33.7%        ||        33.8%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        3.08        ||        2.97        ||        2.96        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.66        ||        3.25        ||        3        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 1 - 2        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.02         ||         £-           ||         £30.00         ||         £46.02         ||
P/L        ||         £6.02           ||        -£10.00          ||         £20.00           ||         £16.02           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
West Brom v Newcastle    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        33.6%        ||        34.0%        ||        32.4%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.98        ||        2.94        ||        3.09        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.56        ||        3.3        ||        3.15        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 0        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.41         ||         £33.00         ||         £-           ||         £49.41         ||
P/L        ||         £6.41           ||         £23.00           ||        -£10.00          ||         £19.41           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Liverpool v Fulham    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        72.2%        ||        19.2%        ||        8.6%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        1.39        ||        5.21        ||        11.63        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.44        ||        5        ||        9        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £12.50         ||         £-           ||         £12.50         ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||         £2.50           ||        -£10.00          ||        -£17.50          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Man City v Man Utd    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        34.8%        ||        34.8%        ||        30.4%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.87        ||        2.87        ||        3.29        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.51        ||        4.7        ||        7.6        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 2        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £29.61         ||         £-           ||         £76.00         ||         £105.61         ||
P/L        ||         £19.61           ||        -£10.00          ||         £66.00           ||         £75.61           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Spurs v Palace    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        42.7%        ||        32.1%        ||        25.2%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.34        ||        3.12        ||        3.97        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.51        ||        4.7        ||        7.6        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 4 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£30.00          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
        ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Totals        ||
Total Stake    [/b]    ||         £80.00         ||         £80.00         ||         £80.00         ||         £240.00         ||
Total Return    [/b]    ||         £78.80         ||         £118.00         ||         £130.08         ||         £326.88         ||
Total p/l    [/b]    ||        -£1.20          ||         £38.00           ||         £50.08           ||         £86.88           ||
% p/l    [/b]    ||        -1.5%         ||        47.5%          ||        62.6%          ||        36.2%         ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Previous Stakes        ||         £600.00         ||         £590.00         ||         £600.00         ||         £1,790.00         ||
Previous Returns        ||         £719.72         ||         £500.60         ||         £771.95         ||         £1,992.27         ||
Previous p/l        ||         £119.72           ||        -£89.40          ||         £171.95           ||         £202.27           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Cumulative Stakes    [/b]    ||         £680.00         ||         £670.00         ||         £680.00         ||         £2,030.00         ||
Cumulative Returns    [/b]    ||         £798.52         ||         £618.60         ||         £902.03         ||         £2,319.15         ||
Cumulative p/l    [/b]    ||         £118.52           ||        -£51.40          ||         £222.03           ||         £289.15           ||
Cumulative % p/l    [/b]    ||        17.4%          ||        -7.7%         ||        32.7%          ||        14.2%         ||

Laid 8/1 Fulham not evens.

I must be reading your tables wrong because going back to the palace/united game you've got the draw losing a tenner instead of 40 so ignore me.

OK I hadnt read the rules, thought each bet was to either back with a tenner or take a tenner out the lays, as I said ignore me

EAW

If you lay Fulham for £10 at about 8/1 doesn't that bet lose £80?  I lost almost £16 for a £2 stake?

yeah, I chose £10 at the beginning for simplicity, on week 1, not thinking long term about realism with big prices. It was always just to test the %s and I wasn't intending to still be going now but I suppose £100 might have been better, to mean the bets could all be put on for real. However, the % loss or gain will be the same and you could place smaller stakes via a 'double chance' back, rather than a match odds lay, if wanting to follow for small stakes.

If you use 'lay to win' rather than 'lay to lose' then you're always risking more on big prices and less on small ones and so it ends up not really being level stakes.

tonight's games, lifted off the website. I'll add the results in to the rest of the weekend in the morning. Personally I think the value is with the away teams again. I've laid Chelsea and backed Everton and Leeds, though wouldn't be at all surprised if West Ham won that.

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.8%	33.3%	31.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3	3.13
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.9%	37.6%	26.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.66	3.77
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

EAW, those probabilities on your chart on Chelsea game are the "no-player-data" percentages of West Ham v Leeds game.. Chelsea - Everton percentages should be 62.6 - 20.1 - 17.3 aka back-lay-lay..
Hoping that those actual percentages won't hold if Lou already put money on the game :)