Hi Lou, yes, I can do them again, if he puts probabilities up in advance again. There are midweek fixtures we can look at.

Giuseppe, no, not including commission and anyway people are on different rates. I wasn't intending for anyone to actually be doing these bets, just of interest to see how his probabilities would fare against the exchange odds, which others would (rightly or wrongly) perceive as truer odds.

Is that you gtfi ????

EAW: Really good summary on last weekend's games! Gotta also admit that the results were very lucky for our system.. Been trying to fix that 'ManC anomaly'
(too low probabilities are given to top end teams no matter who they play against) and I just got the beta fix in, i guess we'll see what happens :)

EN1 & EN2 midweek games were just added, which might be too late for EAW to make those odds comparisons today, but if you have the time and willing to do so that
would be great!
I'll try to add next weekend's games on Friday.

See what I mean though.  Apart from the City game all of the others the prices for a HOME, DRAW OR AWAY are give or take all about the same for every game.  It's almost 2/1  2/1  2/1 (3.0  3.0  3.0)

I think PBanker has something don't get me wrong but the odds must me more varied than that surely.  Yes there are tight matches but look at Liverpool for instance.  They are one of the top couple of teams in the league playing at home against the mighty Brighton who are 4th from bottom yet his odds say 13/8 Liverpool, 13/8 The Draw and 3/1 Brighton. That can't be right surely.

a little update after Tuesday's games - not a good session, giving back the weekends profits there. will update fully tomorrow, or thursday if we get probabilities for spurs - chelsea

Sheff Utd v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
PB's Probability	32.3%	33.5%	34.2%
PB's Implied Odds	3.1	2.99	2.92
Betfair Odds	2.08	3.4	4.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 2-1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Wolves  v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
PB's Probability	29.0%	36.9%	34.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.45	2.71	2.93
Betfair Odds	3.95	3.4	2.2
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 2-1	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£39.50	£-	£18.33	£57.83
P/L	£29.50	-£10.00	£8.33	£27.83
Man Utd v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
PB's Probability	36.5%	32.7%	30.8%
PB's Implied Odds	2.74	3.06	3.25
Betfair Odds	1.49	5	7.4
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 9-0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Newcastle v Palace	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
PB's Probability	34.5%	32.7%	32.8%
PB's Implied Odds	2.9	3.06	3.05
Betfair Odds	3	3.35	2.68
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1-2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Tuesday Stakes	£40.00	£40.00	£40.00	£120.00
Tuesday Returns	£39.50	£-	£18.33	£57.83
Tuesday p/l	-£0.50	-£40.00	-£21.67	-£62.17

                                       

Cumuative Stakes	£140.00	£140.00	£140.00	£420.00
Cumuative  Returns	£133.20	£83.15	£194.71	£411.06
Cumuative p/l	-£6.80	-£56.85	£54.71	-£8.94

New predictions now available for 6. - 7.2 games.

wba and everton only away wins  big double if that lands

a decent weekend for these guys, if they're using their model this way. I get the impression from the colour coding on the website, that it's more about finding the winner, than backing/laying the odds based on the probabilities but, if they are using the %'s in the way we are evaluating them here, it would definitely have been a profitable weekend, with a very respectable 27% profit (14% across the 3 rounds we've looked at).

Aston Villa v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.0%	31.8%	34.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.94	3.14	2.92
Betfair Odds	3.15	3.6	2.44
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1-0	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£31.50	£-	£16.94	£48.44
P/L	£21.50	-£10.00	£6.94	£18.44
Burnley v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	24.0%	37.3%	38.7%
PB's Implied Odds	4.17	2.68	2.58
Betfair Odds	4.2	3.3	2.16
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1-1	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£33.00	£18.62	£51.62
P/L	-£10.00	£23.00	£8.62	£21.62
Newcastle v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.8%	31.8%	34.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.96	3.14	2.91
Betfair Odds	3.25	3.5	2.42
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 3-2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£32.50	£-	£17.04	£49.54
P/L	£22.50	-£10.00	£7.04	£19.54
Fulham v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	24.4%	34.5%	41.1%
PB's Implied Odds	4.1	2.9	2.43
Betfair Odds	3.95	3.6	2.12
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 0-0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£13.39	£36.00	£18.93	£68.32
P/L	£3.39	£26.00	£8.93	£38.32
Man Utd v Everton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.1%	33.9%	32.0%
PB's Implied Odds	2.93	2.95	3.13
Betfair Odds	1.6	4.4	6.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 3-3	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£26.67	£44.00	£-	£70.67
P/L	£16.67	£34.00	-£10.00	£40.67
Spurs v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	36.5%	36.6%	26.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.74	2.73	3.72
Betfair Odds	1.52	4.5	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 2-0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Wolves  v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	27.2%	35.9%	36.9%
PB's Implied Odds	3.68	2.79	2.71
Betfair Odds	3.75	3.5	2.2
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0-0	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£35.00	£18.33	£53.33
P/L	-£10.00	£25.00	£8.33	£23.33
Liverpool v Man City	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	28.1%	35.3%	36.6%
PB's Implied Odds	3.56	2.83	2.73
Betfair Odds	3.7	3.7	2.14
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1-3	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Sheff Utd v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	28.6%	34.3%	37.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.5	2.92	2.7
Betfair Odds	8	4.7	1.5
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0-1	lose	lose	lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£90.00	£90.00	£90.00	£270.00
Total Return	£104.06	£148.00	£89.86	£341.92
Total p/l	£14.06	£58.00	-£0.14	£71.92
Previous Stakes	£190.00	£190.00	£190.00	£570.00
Previous Returns	£194.01	£94.82	£326.61	£615.44
Previous p/l	£4.01	-£95.18	£136.61	£45.44
Cumulative Stakes	£280.00	£280.00	£280.00	£840.00
Cumulative Returns	£298.07	£242.82	£416.47	£957.36
Cumulative p/l	£18.07	-£37.18	£136.47	£117.36

New predictions now available for 13. - 14.2 games.

that's a good point, i remember someone who's been gambling a lot longer than i have telling me years ago that the draw should never be less than 2/1 and at 2/1 bookies are scared of the draw. not that i really believe the bookies are scared of anything . he even had the draw as favourite in west brom v spurs and that should only be the case when games are ****.

i'll plug in today's numbers shortly - as lou asked so nicely

^forgot you can't say r i g g e d on here..

here's the numbers for the fixtures he has on this site, based on bf odds about 20 mins ago

Leicester v Liverpool	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.1%	25.40%	39.50%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	3.94	2.53
Betfair Odds	3.85	3.85	2.06
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
Palace v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.8%	37.0%	29.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.96	2.7	3.42
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.15	3.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
Man City v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	78.6%	14.9%	6.5%
PB's Implied Odds	1.27	6.71	15.38
Betfair Odds	1.37	6	9.4
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
Brighton v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	29.4%	35.1%	35.5%
PB's Implied Odds	3.4	2.85	2.82
Betfair Odds	2.92	3.5	2.62
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
Southampton v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	38.2%	35.7%	26.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.62	2.8	3.83
Betfair Odds	2.54	3.3	3.25
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
West Brom v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	3.7%	9.0%	87.3%
PB's Implied Odds	27.03	11.11	1.15
Betfair Odds	10.5	6	1.34
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Arsenal v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.8%	37.0%	29.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.96	2.7	3.42
Betfair Odds	1.97	3.9	4.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Everton v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	37.9%	35.4%	26.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.64	2.82	3.75
Betfair Odds	2.08	3.5	4.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
PB's Implied Odds	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
Betfair Odds	1.78	3.8	5.6
Implied recommendation	Leave	Leave	Leave
Chelsea v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
PB's Implied Odds	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
Betfair Odds	1.27	6.8	14
Implied recommendation	Leave	Leave	Leave

profitable overall again, though Saturday a lot stringer than Sunday again. I wonder if that's coincidence, or something else going on - team news fresher, at the point they are doing their numbers or something..?

Leicester v Liverpool	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	35.1%	25.4%	39.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	3.94	2.53
Betfair Odds	3.85	3.85	2.06
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 3 - 1	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£38.50	£13.51	£19.43	£71.44
P/L	£28.50	£3.51	£9.43	£41.44
Palace v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.8%	37.0%	29.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.96	2.7	3.42
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.15	3.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 3	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.02	£-	£-	£16.02
P/L	£6.02	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£13.98
Man City v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	78.6%	14.9%	6.5%
PB's Implied Odds	1.27	6.71	15.38
Betfair Odds	1.37	6	9.4
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 3 - 0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£13.70	£12.00	£11.19	£36.89
P/L	£3.70	£2.00	£1.19	£6.89
Brighton v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	29.4%	35.1%	35.5%
PB's Implied Odds	3.4	2.85	2.82
Betfair Odds	2.92	3.5	2.62
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£15.21	£35.00	£16.17	£66.38
P/L	£5.21	£25.00	£6.17	£36.38
Southampton v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	38.2%	35.7%	26.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.62	2.8	3.83
Betfair Odds	2.54	3.3	3.25
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.49	£-	£-	£16.49
P/L	£6.49	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£13.51
West Brom v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	3.7%	9.0%	87.3%
PB's Implied Odds	27.03	11.11	1.15
Betfair Odds	10.5	6	1.34
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 1 - 1	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£11.05	£-	£-	£11.05
P/L	£1.05	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£18.95
Arsenal v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.8%	37.0%	29.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.96	2.7	3.42
Betfair Odds	1.97	3.9	4.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Everton v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	37.9%	35.4%	26.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.64	2.82	3.75
Betfair Odds	2.08	3.5	4.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£19.26	£-	£41.00	£60.26
P/L	£9.26	-£10.00	£31.00	£30.26
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£80.00	£80.00	£80.00	£240.00
Total Return	£130.23	£60.51	£87.79	£278.53
Total p/l	£50.23	-£19.49	£7.79	£38.53
% p/l	62.8%	-24.4%	9.7%	16.1%
Previous Stakes	£280.00	£280.00	£280.00	£840.00
Previous Returns	£298.07	£242.82	£416.47	£957.36
Previous p/l	£18.07	-£37.18	£136.47	£117.36
Cumulative Stakes	£360.00	£360.00	£360.00	£1,080.00
Cumulative Returns	£428.30	£303.33	£504.26	£1,235.89
Cumulative p/l	£68.30	-£56.67	£144.26	£155.89
Cumulative % p/l	19.0%	-15.7%	40.1%	14.4%

everyone's a probable banker.

Yes he had United at about 1/7 and perhaps we all thought they would win but wasn't to be.

He's going along very nicely though somehow.

EAW

Yes I noticed that by looking at your figures.  It's the draw they're losing on otherwise they'd be even more profitable on an already healthy figure.

Yes up until a couple of weeks ago they'd have made United about 5/4 favourites so obviously changed something to suddenly make them (too short) at 1/7.

I wonder if it's this specific season that's making their figures look so good with no crowds and more away wins than home which is ridiculous as it's probably nearer two or three times more usually that the home team wins.  Would have been interesting to see how their figures would look like on a 'normal' season.

I'll look forward to next week's chart!

Southampton v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	7.2%	16.8%	76.0%
PB's Implied Odds	13.89	5.95	1.32
Betfair Odds	5.5	4.1	1.73
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Burnley v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	38.3%	34.5%	27.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.61	2.9	3.68
Betfair Odds	2.16	3.35	4.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Liverpool v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	39.9%	34.8%	28.0%
PB's Implied Odds	2.51	2.87	3.57
Betfair Odds	1.5	4.9	7.4
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Fulham v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	37.2%	34.8%	28.0%
PB's Implied Odds	2.69	2.87	3.57
Betfair Odds	2.22	3.35	3.9
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	36.1%	33.7%	30.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.77	2.97	3.31
Betfair Odds	2.92	3.4	2.68
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Aston Villa v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.7%	32.4%	33.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.97	3.09	2.95
Betfair Odds	3.35	3.65	2.32
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Arsenal v Man City	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	28.7%	36.4%	34.9%
PB's Implied Odds	3.48	2.75	2.87
Betfair Odds	7	4.7	1.54
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Man Utd v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	83.9%	11.5%	4.6%
PB's Implied Odds	1.19	8.7	21.74
Betfair Odds	1.31	6.2	12.5
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay

Fixed a bug which messed up probabilities for Arsenal game -> new probabilities 4.6% - 10.9% - 84.5% which should make it Lay - Lay - Back

Over weeks now they're showing a 15% profit which is excellent.

May follow them next week just for £2 a bet to see what happens.

Thanks EAW

I've followed all of their predictions and backed/layed accordingly at the odds on here for £2 stakes every bet.  Two or three of their odds are just about spot on so I've left them not knowing which way to back.

Couple of bigger price ones such as I've layed West Ham at 12/1 but let's see if I show a profit after Sunday.  Everton game not included.

Good luck all.