ProbableBanker predictions

your history doesn't mean much because we'd have to take your word

you have to post predictions on here, record p and l, over a substantial period of time, then you can be judged, if you want money/subs.

New predictions now available for 20.1 games. New versions of predictions where actual lineup data is used are added closer to kickoff.

You are correct that the whole color coding is not really self-explanatory - and there should be some kind of info displayed to the users about all the elements on the website (on the to-do list..)

Anyway, color coding in past results:

Green: Highest predicted probability corresponds with actual result eg.
       Prediction: 50%   40%   10%
       Result:        3     -    0

Blue : SECOND Highest predicted probability corresponds with actual result eg.
       Prediction: 40%   50%   10%
       Result:        3     -    0

Red:   THIRD Highest predicted probability corresponds with actual result eg.
       Prediction: 10%   40%   50%
       Result:        3     -    0

why wouldn't he only get back £50, if all 5 were 1/2?

everyone's a winner

Yes including stake money so even though he'd have a good percentage of winners as every game has three possible outcomes he'd still be losing even if he got 5/10 correct.

I've never seen anyone on here ever post a long term winning system, they exist but nobody would post a long term winning one for obvious reasons.

maybe he's onto something, they've drifted to 1.32 now

yeah, joking aside, the odds would suggest they have a much higher % chance of a win than 39%. either way it won't prove the model to be good or bad, as any result has a chance of occurring. you only know you are onto something if you are using it to beat the bookies' odds long term and, as scandi says, it's unlikely you'd give it away to people, if you did have it.

Yeah, those yesterday's probabilities for ManC were bit low in retrospect :)
We are planning to add a statistics page where users can see how all the predictions have fared
without going through all the past results + minimum fair odds to every game to skip the need for
converting them from the probabilities.

New predictions for today's and tomorrow's Premier + Championship games now available.

I had a bit of time on my hands, so thought it might be interesting to look at these probabilities in comparison to Betfair's Odds, for one weekend of Premier League fixtures, to see how they stack up and if you would have found any ‘value’. I've taken a snap shot of the 'back' odds on the exchange this morning, put in the probabilities from your website, converted them to implied odds and then put what the recommendation should be for each one - back or lay - depending on whether your probability suggests the BF odds are a bit long or a bit short. There are some big differences and some smaller ones. Obviously in reality, you'd leave some of them alone but we can look at how you'd have got on, when the results are in.

Not sure if the formatting will hold up copying and pasting this, I might have to try to insert a table later, we’ll see..

Everton v Newcastle        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            1.61    4.2    6.6
PB's Probability        43.3%    29.90%    26.80%
PB's Implied Odds        2.31    3.34    3.73
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Back
       
Palace v Wolves        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            3.05    3.15    2.74
PB's Probability        34.9%    30.4%    34.7%
PB's Implied Odds        2.87    3.29    2.88
Implied recommendation        Back    Lay    Lay
           
Man C v Sheff Utd        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            1.16    10    24
PB's Probability        52.7%    27.4%    19.9%
PB's Implied Odds        1.9    3.65    5.03
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Back
           
West Brom v Fulham        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            3.65    3.3    2.34
PB's Probability        30.6%    33.3%    36.1%
PB's Implied Odds        3.27    3    2.77
Implied recommendation        Back    Back    Lay
           
Arsenal v Man U        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            2.98    3.55    2.56
PB's Probability        32.9%    33.4%    33.7%
PB's Implied Odds        3.04    2.99    2.97
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Lay
           
Southampton v Villa        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            3    3.75    2.44
PB's Probability        36.5%    30.0%    33.5%
PB's Implied Odds        2.74    3.33    2.99
Implied recommendation        Back    Back    Lay
           
Chelsea v Burnley        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            1.36    5.6    10.5
PB's Probability        41.7%    31.1%    27.2%
PB's Implied Odds        2.4    3.22    3.68
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Back
           
Leicester v Leeds        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            1.85    4.2    4.4
PB's Probability        33.6%    35.7%    30.7%
PB's Implied Odds        2.98    2.8    3.26
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Back
           
West Ham v Liverpool        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            4.5    4.3    1.81
PB's Probability        33.4%    33.2%    33.4%
PB's Implied Odds        2.99    3.01    2.99
Implied recommendation        Back    Back    Lay
           
Brighton v Spurs        Home    Draw    Away
Betfair Odds            3.15    3.5    2.48
PB's Probability        31.0%    31.6%    37.4%
PB's Implied Odds        3.23    3.16    2.67
Implied recommendation        Lay    Back    Lay

my model predictions, no guarantees

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP            Predicted Probability            Fair Odds       
MATCHDAY 21 FIXTURES            HOME    DRAW    AWAY        HOME    DRAW    AWAY
Everton            Newcastle        61%    32%    7%         1.65      3.10      14.17
Crystal Palace    Wolves                44%    27%    28%         2.27      3.64      3.52
Man City    Sheffield United    77%    17%    6%         1.29      5.98      16.89
West Brom    Fulham                13%    41%    46%         7.59      2.46      2.16
Arsenal            Man United        42%    26%    32%         2.37      3.83      3.16
Southampton    Aston Villa        34%    28%    38%         2.96      3.57      2.62
Chelsea            Burnley                69%    23%    8%         1.44      4.40      12.39
Leicester    Leeds                49%    24%    27%         2.05      4.18      3.66
West Ham    Liverpool        38%    26%    35%         2.60      3.81      2.83
Brighton    Tottenham        25%    28%    47%         4.02      3.62      2.11

Poker Player's seem to make much more sense.

Give PB his due on the first game.  His percentages made Everton about 11/8 (we all know that's far too big I know) so his system says to Lay them as they were about 4/6 at the start.

Currently with five minutes to go they're losing 0-1 and by the stats it looks like Newcastle been more than a match for them so a very good start.

My ratings currently

101.5	Man City		87.5	Leeds
101	Liverpool		87	West Ham
97.5	Man United		86.5	Aston Villa
97	Tottenham		85.5	Crystal Palace
96	Chelsea		84.5	Burnley
95.5	Arsenal		84.5	Brighton
93	Leicester		84	Newcastle
91.5	Wolves		83.5	Sheff United
90	Everton		83	Fulham
88.5	Southampton		83	West Brom

Prices are generated by converting the difference in rating, using a table. Awarding 4pts for home advantage (maybe too much this season)

Diff	Team A		Draw	Team B		Diff	Team A		Draw	Team B
0	2.85		3.35	2.85		13.5	1.41		5.25	10
0.5	2.77		3.38	2.91		14	1.39		5.4	10.5
1	2.69		3.42	2.98		14.5	1.37		5.6	11
1.5	2.61		3.46	3.05		15	1.35		5.8	11.6
2	2.54		3.5	3.12		15.5	1.33		6	12.3
2.5	2.47		3.55	3.19		16	1.31		6.25	13.1
3	2.4		3.6	3.28		16.5	1.29		6.5	14.1
3.5	2.33		3.65	3.37		17	1.27		6.8	15
4	2.27		3.7	3.46		17.5	1.26		7	15.7
4.5	2.21		3.75	3.56		18	1.25		7.2	16.4
5	2.15		3.8	3.68		18.5	1.24		7.4	17.2
5.5	2.09		3.85	3.82		19	1.23		7.6	18.1
6	2.03		3.9	3.99		19.5	1.22		7.8	19.2
6.5	1.98		3.95	4.13		20	1.21		8.1	20
7	1.93		4	4.32		20.5	1.20		8.5	21
7.5	1.88		4.05	4.53		21	1.19		|8.9	22
8	1.83		4.11	4.76		21.5	1.18		9.3	23
8.5	1.78		4.17	5.04		22	1.17		9.7	24
9	1.73		4.25	5.36		22.5	1.16		10.2	26
9.5	1.68		4.33	5.76		23	1.15		10.7	28
10	1.64		4.41	6.12		23.5	1.14		11.2	30
10.5	1.60		4.5	6.55		24	1.13		11.8	33
11	1.56		4.6	7.07		24.5	1.12		12.5	37
11.5	1.52		4.7	7.74		25	1.11		13.5	40
12	1.49		4.82	8.24		25.5	1.10		14.7	44
12.5	1.46		4.95	8.85		26	1.09		16	50
13	1.43		5.1	9.56		26.5	1.08		17.5	60

So for this weekend my ratings produce these odds

H			D			A
1.64	Everton		4.41	Newcastle		6.12
3.12	Crystal Palace		3.5	Wolves		2.54
1.17	Man City		9.7	Sheffield United		24
2.27	West Brom		3.7	Fulham		3.46
2.54	Arsenal		3.12	Manchester United		3.12
2.03	Southampton		3.9	Aston Villa		3.99
1.33	Chelsea		6	Burnley		12.3
1.68	Leicester		4.33	Leeds		5.76
6.12	West Ham		4.41	Liverpool		1.64
5.04	Brighton		4.17	Tottenham		1.78

Here's a running total for PB after the 3pm kick offs. Also to see if I can paste as a table. I've just done it to £10 stakes for an illustration. Unsurprisingly Man City was a loser..

Everton v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Betfair Odds	1.61	4.2	6.6
PB's Probability	0.433	0.299	0.268
PB's Implied Odds	2.31	3.34	3.73
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0-2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£26.39	£-	£66.00	£92.39
P/L	£16.39	-£10.00	£56.00	£62.39
Palace v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.15	2.74
PB's Probability	0.349	0.304	0.347
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3.29	2.88
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 1-0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£30.50	£14.65	£15.75	£60.90
P/L	£20.50	£4.65	£5.75	£30.90
Man C v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
Betfair Odds	1.16	10	24
PB's Probability	0.527	0.274	0.199
PB's Implied Odds	1.9	3.65	5.03
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1-0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
West Brom v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away
Betfair Odds	3.65	3.3	2.34
PB's Probability	0.306	0.333	0.361
PB's Implied Odds	3.27	3	2.77
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 2-2	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£33.00	£17.46	£50.46
P/L	-£10.00	£23.00	£7.46	£20.46
Total Stake				£120.00
Total Return				£203.75
Total P/L				£83.75

good thread this cheeres ewaw

EAW

Thanks so much.

He seems to be going along quite nicely so far though ..............

a lot hinged on that everton result though, if that had gone the other way, the swing would be enough to take it to a very small loss overall.

I see what you mean he does seem to bunch the prices all much closer than they should be.  Like he'd make City say Even money when we all know they're about 1/4 shots.

He made about an 18% profit though which is excellent.

Perhaps you could do the figures again next week .............. PLEASE!