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Ah yes.....drink, the biggest loss-maker in betting! Well I'm not au fait with the 'leather on willow' game but I'm sure the Cardiff bet will come in for you. The West Brom one is interesting as the next handful of games will be pivotal as all are potentially winnable but if Pepe Mel insists on playing with a high defensive line (which I'm pretty sure he will) then it's suicide with plodders like Olsson, McAuley, Lugano, Ridgewell etc. Good luck as always though.
Todays potentials are as follows..... 17:00 - R. CHORZOW v W. LODZ 17:00 - ZADAR v HRVATSKI 17:30 - NORD'LAND v VIBORG 17:30 - PADERBORN v BOCHUM 18:00 - AK. BEL'SPOR v BURSASPOR 18:00 - BESIKTAS v ANTALYASPOR 19:00 - ANGERS v TROYES 19:00 - CAEN v CLERMONT 19:00 - DIJON v CRETEIL 19:30 - LATINA v PADOVA 19:30 - HERTHA v FREIBURG 19:30 - BILBAO v GRANADA Hopefully we can squeeze a couple of bets out of that lot  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hi Robd
I'm amazing myself by my recent incompetence. And the goldfish is still gloating. I've just had a win bet on Dijon (won last 5 at home) against Creteil (won none of last 6 away) Also win bet and DNB on Latino Calcio (won 4 out of last 6 at home) againsy Calcio Padove (lost last four away). So on my recent predictions I'd keep away from them! I'm actually a life-long Baggies fan. I just think that if we can get a win in the next two or three games we're capable of putting a string of results together. I think Pepe Mel has to stick with a high pressing game as that's what he knows but do the players is the question. I'll forgive you for slandering some of the Premiership's finest defenders! Whatever you decide for tonight I wish you well. PS My interface doesn't have a Forum link anymore does yours? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ahhh I don't know you were a yam-yam?! You live local??
Haha I'm not saying they're bad defenders (apart from Lugano maybe  ) it's just that they wouldn't be troubling Usain Bolt in the 100m's!Good luck with those then buddy but I gave them a swerve however I am going for...... Bet 65 - BILBAO v GRANADA @ 19:30 Win: 1.40 ~ DNB: 1.13 ~ Lay: 11.00 Popping out for a few jars but I'll be back about 11ish to count the money (famous last words....  ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Well done again. I didn't fancy them at the odds. I was ok.
Live in West Brom work in Brum. I've been busy this morning - backed seven teams, two cricket matches and a rugby union match. Our defenders don't have to run 100 metres. They just run 5 then boot the ball - and it goes faster than Usain. Have to go and replenish supplies: beer and wine might even squander some dosh on food. Be back in a couple of hours. Take care. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Oh right we're not too far away then as I'm 10 miles east of the sprawling metropolis known as the 2nd city!
 .Always wise to stock up on the vital supplies so your morning has already been more constructive than mine which has consisted of ibuprofen, red bull and stats on the serbian superliga (I bet you can't tell I'm single can you?!). Had to double-check the Bilbao score this morning as I didn't trust my bleary eyes at 01:00 in the morning but it does appear they got the job done in fine fashion with a lovely little 3 goal haul from Aritz Aduriz. I'll include it in todays figures due to time constraints on a busy Saturday......... Potential Selections - 01.03.14
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Is that all you can manage not much choice there!
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 yeah it's that time of year when the more exotic leagues are coming back of their winter break and the South American ones are starting up again so I'm strapping myself in for a wild ride! (ie. sitting in-front of the laptop with a cup of Earl Grey and a custard cream....rock n roll).Regarding the forum button mate, I'm a dinosaur that still uses the old site and the 'community' button seems to be as normal. Have you sorted it? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Earl Grey - that's posh, I'm drinking newly acquired supplies. So you live in France.
I won't poison your mind by telling you my selections yet but they're all in your possibles except I'me also on Gornik Zabrze (lost last home game to top of league but won four out of five home games before that) against Korona Kielce (lost last three away and only drawn two of last seven away). And odds are ok 2.22 when I backed. Cricket seems ok on one match SA-Pak Under 19s (i'm on SA) but it should be all over by now. Still no Forum button but can access it through favourites. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A tad miffed. I've laid QPR and backed the draw but Leeds just missed a pen.
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A tad un-miffed now!
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Nice green on this. Draw best then Leeds.
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Keep up the good work
1st of the day incoming!..... Bet 68 - CSKA SOFIA v S. SOFIA @ 14:15 Win: 1.33 ~ DNB: 1.14 ~ Lay: 15.00 (got confused with the 'bet' numbers yesterday but I can assure you that this is 68) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Apologies as I also said I would start to include the 'supremacy rating' and also where it ranks alongside the rating for all the previous 67 bets so.....
S/P ('Supremacy Rating') = 4.79 Ranking (whereby highest rated would be 1/68 and lowest would be 68/68) = 18/68 Hope that makes sense anyway! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sofia not one of mine. Odds too short for me. But good luck.
QPR draw and SA both in for me. Sorry but don't understand your supremacy rating. 1/68 = 0.015, 68/68 = 1. So how do you get a value outside of these values? Do you mean rankings? Back soon. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gone for Lech Poznan v Piast Gliwice, Watford, Aberdeen, Rotherham, Bradford, SP Lisbon. Probably a few more.
Let's hope you can get to the 75% mark today. That would be a very impressive achievement. Good luck. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Forgot to say laid Everton and Forest. And probably a few more!
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Bet 69 - WOLVES v PORT VALE @ 15:00
Win: 1.40 ~ DNB: 1.13 ~ Lay: 10.50 S/P = 5.71 ~ Rank = 8/72 Bet 70 - ORIENT v COLCHESTER @ 15:00 Win: 1.55 ~ DNB: 1.17 ~ Lay: 7.80 S/P = 3.06 ~ Rank = 50/72 Bet 71 - YORK v EXETER @ 15:00 Win: 2.10 ~ DNB: 1.53 ~ Lay: 3.95 S/P = 0.78 ~ Rank = 72/72 Bet 71 - HARTLEPOOL v TORQUAY @ 15:00 Win: 1.95 ~ DNB: 1.40 ~ Lay: 4.70 S/P = 2.86 ~ Rank = 55/72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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typo.... *Bet 72* - HARTLEPOOL v TORQUAY @ 15:00
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Interesting. None the same. Would have backed Wolves but don't like 'em.
Also backed the draw at Everton. Wish you well. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yeah I didn't explain the rating thing that well. Take the York game for example....
S/P = 0.78 ~ Rank = 72/72 So the 'supremacy rating' of 0.78 indicates the superiority of the home side over the away side but to give it context, it is the lowest rated game of all 72 bets thus far therefore would be bottom of the pile ie 72 of 72 (72/72 was just the way I expressed it). So the Wolves game achieved a relatively high rating of level of 5.71 which was the 8th biggest of the 72 bets so far which was expressed as 8/72. Hope that was little better | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I need to think about this.
I think 3 of mine and one of yours are 1-0. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sorry mate but even more confused! One thing at a time. 72 is this total number of bets placed?
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Losing track but 2 of yours 1-0.
Think one of mine is now 1-1 and Rotherham is 3-0. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I need to watch/trade on Gloucester. And will probably lay off Everton and Forest soon.
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Not laid either. And Forest 2 down. Will keep Everton until at leat 50.
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Make that Forest 0-1
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Waiting for Everton to be even money then will lay. Feel greedy with Forest.
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Famous last words.
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No problemo. Take Bet 70 for example.....
Bet 70 - ORIENT v COLCHESTER @ 15:00 Win: 1.55 ~ DNB: 1.17 ~ Lay: 7.80 S/R = 3.06 ~ Rank = 50/72 So let's look at the 'S/R' bit first (previously incorrectly written as S/P). This refers to the 'Supremacy Rating' which is basically a value configurated from a variety of different data strands (form/goal diff/points etc..) which I envisaged would show the superiority of the home team over the opposition in any given fixture. However the S/R shown for the above game of 3.06 would be meaningless without context. Therefore my aim was to show where this selection's S/R ranked in regards to all my previous bets. This has been shown as '50/72' as this is the 50th largest S/R out of all 72 bets placed thus far. A few days ago I posted that the following were the highest, middle and lowest rated selections at the time: Highest: SPARTA v BRNO (S/R = 7.92) Median: BE'ER SHEVA v B. SAKHNIN (S/R = 3.99) Lowest: ESTORIL v BRAGA (S/R = 0.86) The aim of formulating the S/R was to gauge which teams were more/less likely to win whereby the higher the S/R, the bigger gulf in class so using the above examples you would expect Sparta to beat Brno far more than Estoril to win against Braga. The reason for introducing this measure was basically for 'quality control' as if I could see after analysing , say 100 bets for example, that the majority of losing selections were found to be rated below a certain S/R then my selection process going forward would only include those home favourites with a S/R over a certain level. Hope this is a tad clearer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thanks. But I still don't get it. Maybe the supplies have kicked in. Once the Rugby's finished (10 mins) I'm going for a few hours kip. I'll try again then.
As far as I can tell it looks like your bets are doing well. Can't tell with mine there's a lot of them. Good luck. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 73 - B. MUNICH v SCHALKE @ 17:30
Win: 1.18 ~ DNB: 1.05 ~ Lay: N/A (Price too high to lay for £30.00) S/R = 4.98 ~ Rank = 16 of 74 Bet 74 - L. POZNAN v P. GLIWICE @ 17:30 Win: 1.50 ~ DNB: 1.17 ~ Lay: 8.60 S/R = 3.14 ~ Rank = 50 of 74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 75 - B. YEHUDA v I.R HASHARON @ 18:00
Win: 1.57 ~ DNB: 1.20 ~ Lay: 7.00 S/R = 2.54 ~ Rank = 59 of 75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 76 - STEAUA v DINAMO @ 19:00
Win: 1.40 ~ DNB: 1.15 ~ Lay: 11.00 S/R = 5.45 ~ Rank = 11 of 76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Back in the land of the living. Have they all won?
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Now my brain is back in gear a little I can see what you mean by Supremacy Rating. Not sure if the rank part is useful as it's continually changing - all previous rankings would need to be updated whenever there's a new one.
Perhaps you should play around with converting SR to odds. There must be a highest SR which means "this team can't lose" (odds = 1.0) to a lowest which means "this team has no chance" (maybe a negative SR? odds = 1000) - depends how you do it. If you did your calculations for both team what values would you get? Every time you do calculations on a home win you're also doing calculations on an away win/draw. Just needs a scale to put it into context. Once you've done that you can compare your odds (home, draw, away) with those on offer. Hoover up the discepancies and you become a instant millionnaire (spelling?). Easy peasy! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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On to the boxing. Burns is being tipped everywhere to get burnt. Just to be contrare I'm having a small bet on Burns to win on points. I think that counts as a home bet.
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Odds on Roma seem ok so another small bet.
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Daily Review - 01.03.14
(67) BILBAO v GRANADA: 4-0 (68) CSKA SOFIA v S. SOFIA: 3-0 (69) WOLVES v PORT VALE: 3-0 (70) ORIENT v COLCHESTER: 2-1 (71) HARTLEPOOL v TORQUAY: 3-0 (72) YORK v EXETER: 2-1 (73) B. MUNICH v SCHALKE: 5-1 (74) L. POZNAN v P. GLIWICE: 4-0 (75) B. YEHUDA v I.R HASHARON: 0-1 (76) STEAUA v DINAMO: 1-1 It was going so well  . After reeling off 8 wins from 8 it was looking like the greatest comeback since Lazarus as the 2 defeats mid-week were a distant memory and I was boarding HMS Profit for a 9th consecutive week. But alas, it wasn't to be courtesy of a 90+4th minute winner in Israel, a metaphorical kick in the jaffa's if there ever was one. Only a miracle Sunday (it is the Lords day after all) can save Week 9 from eternal damnation or as I call it....a loss. On the plus-side, I'm now over 3/4's of the way to a century of bets which is the point where a complete reassessment of the method will be undertaken and I'm hoping the opportunity to refine certain facets will result in 'Home Favourites 2.0/MK II' being even more profitable......(I hope ):Selections: 76 (W 58 ~ D 13 ~ L 5) Daily P/L: +£44.53 (+22.26%) Weekly P/L: -£48.24 (-24.12%) Overall P/L: +£519.80 (+259.90%) Expect similar (but just not as much) nonsense tomorrow | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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its your overall p/l that counts - you cant just change tack for 1 weeks figures
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Yeah I agree gotitwrong but it was always my plan from the outset to get to 100 bets (so I've got a half-decent sample size) and then look to see where potential improvements can be made regarding the staking plan, selection process etc...
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