Potential Selections - 19.02.14

17:30 - KAIZER CHIEFS v BLOEMFONTEIN CELTIC

I've just done the Rijeka game I couldn't wait till 17.30 lol

Well done and good luck Robd. Just a couple of comments if you don't mind.

I think your ratio of betting 1:2:3 is very good but personally would be concerned over betting 30% of bank in one go - 3 or 4 early losses and it's bye bye bank (if I've understood your staking system).

I'm also interested why you didn't recommend Wigan last night (I know it's after-timing but I did back them) as they seemed to meet the attributes you are looking for in a team: good recent form, good recent home form, poor away team with bad recent form?

Best wishes.

Hi Charlie,

Cheers for the support and 2 good questions....

1) Very good point made with regards to the potentially overly aggressive staking plan I adopted.  This was one of my primary concerns when starting this process as common betting strategists would raise their eyebrows at such excessive staking and I was therefore very malleable in altering this plan should the volume of defeats become unmanageable.  As the plan was always to begin with a relatively small 'start' bank of £200.00 in order to 'test drive' the system with minimal financial damage, I envisaged reassessing the results after 50 bets to see if any alterations (whether that be selections or staking) could improve the chance of long term profit.  So far the defeats have been kept to a bare minimum (although I agree that the current 1 in 30 strike rate is unsustainable) but it is something I will again look at when the century of bets is reached as this is a factor I am much more likely to scale down than increase.

2) Wigan were very much a home favourite I liked the look of as I listed it in that mornings 'potential selections' as all data strands were shown to be superior to that of Barnsley but unfortunately there failed to be noticeable market support for them both throughout the day and in the run-up to KO so I begrudgingly gave them a swerve.  I tend not to look back in anger at the missed winners as that is the benefit of a relatively rigid process like this as opinion is kept to a minimum and if 'computer says no' then so be it but I do admit there is a slight gnashing of teeth when results like that (which prior to this system, I would've gone for) come in but WD for you're win mate and hope plenty more come your way

Hi Robd

Thanks for quick, polite and reasoned reply.  I can't remember what advert it is but it goes something like "and that makes a refreshing change".

I've just learned that Kaiser's are SA. I thought they were American. I generally restrict betting to teams in Europe - unless it's cricket - some times I see team names and have absolutely no idea where they are from. I did make an effort to go through the teams you put as potential bets on your blog, and most of the time I got the country wrong yet alone the league.

I haven't checked your results very carefully but did notice that the success rates for bets where home winners were over 2.0 were not particularly profitable - I did this in my head without checking so I may be wrong - but if profitable then it's no problem. But may be woth keeping an eye on.

100% agree that you shouldn't beat yourself up about missed winners or backing losers but must admit it's difficult for me not to do. Tonight I'm going for the two Spanish teams (please do not think these are tips!!) because it maintains interest in two games which I would generally not be bothered about - which also shows another weakness on my behalf.

Really hope you are successful.

Take care.

Robd

Thanks.  One of the Spanish teams is German! Whoops.

Potential Selections - 23.02.14

12:00	DINAMO v VIITORUL	15:30	SALZBURG v ADMIRA
12:00	KORONA v LUBIN	16:00	V. SETUBAL v PACOS
13:00	PANATH'KOS v ERGOTELIS	16:00	RIJEKA v OSIJEK
13:30	AJAX v AZ	17:00	STANDARD v GENT
13:30	LIVERPOOL v SWANSEA	17:00	MARITIMO v BELENENSES
14:00	UDINESE v ATALANTA	17:00	TRABZONSP' v KEYSERISP'
14:00	INTER v CAGLIARI	17:30	PAOK v PANTHRAKIKOS
14:15	LOVECH v BEROE	17:30	JUVE v TORINO
14:30	E. FRANKFURT v BREMEN	18:00	TOLUCA v GUADALAJARA
14:30	WISLA v CRACOVIA	18:00	VALENCIA v GRANADA
15:15	ATROMITOS v XANTHI	18:15	M. TEL AVIV v H. HAIFA
15:15	PAS GIANNINA v VERIA	19:15	PORTO v ESTORIL
15:30	TWENTE v FEYERNOORD	19:45	LAZIO v SASSUOLO

Bet 62 - MARITIMO v BELENENSES @ 17:00

Win: 1.95 ~ DNB: 1.40 ~ Lay: 4.90

Potential Selections - 24.02.14

17:00 - ZAWISZA v L. GDANSK
17:00 - SPARTA v BRNO
18:30 - GAZ METAN v ACS P.T
19:15 - KOLN v G. FURTH
20:00 - NAPOLI v GENOA
20:15 - BENFICA v V. GUIMARAES

Hi Robd

Personally I don't fancy either of your two possible bets.  I've gone for Napoli. 

Hopefully we're both right.  Also realised that putting your head above the parapet is quite daunting.  Not only have you done this but you've been successful.  Well done!

Hi Charlie,

Cheers for the kind words and looks like we covered all 3 footballing outcomes in the games we went for yesterday!

Hopefully today will be better .

Hi Robd

Bad luck on yesterday.  I wouldn't beat yourself up about it as your record is still mightily impressive. I've struggled to find any home team I fancy.  I will probably lay ManU and hope they go a goal behind so I can back them.

Whatever you decide to do good luck with any bets.

Yeah good point CJ.  I'm hoping that when these 'situations' do occur that the market would do the talking and therefore wouldn't qualify as an actual bet but only time will tell I suppose as I plan to re-assess my whole method after 100 bets in both selecting and staking terms.  Cheers

Good luck in whatever you choose tonight Charlie.  As it'll be a similar situation to yesterday (ie. I may not be able to update thread pre-KO), I predict that the following will be qualifying bets.....

17:30 - BORDEAUX v LORIENT:  1.95 ~ 1.40 ~ 5.00
17:30 - M. SUNDOWNS v O. PIRATES:  2.25 ~ 1.62 ~ 3.65
19:45 - FLEETWOOD v PLYMOUTH:  1.86 ~ 1.36 ~ 4.80

Right just a quickie to confirm that the following were qualifying bets:

(65) BORDEAUX v LORIENT:  1.95 ~ 1.40 ~ 5.00
(66) M. SUNDOWNS v O. PIRATES:  2.25 ~ 1.62 ~ 3.65

I believe 65 won but 66 lost but more info to follow when I get home

Potential Selections - 26.02.14

01:00 - LA EQUIDAD v DEP. PESTO

Oh dear, make that 1.14

Looks like we're having 'one of them' at the moment Charlie!

With regards to tonights action, I'm with you regarding Real as I think this may play into their hands tonight.  I always fancy them more away from home given the additional space behind the defence of the opposition and I think their swift counter-attacking tendencies can exploit both Joel Matip's lack of pace and Jens Keller's tactical ineptitude....Madrid win for me also! (a death knell if there ever was one!)

One thing I have been keeping tabs on regarding my system is a 'supremacy rating' I give to each of the selections.  This is basically a value configurated from 6 different data strands (form/goal diff/points etc..) which I envisaged would show the superiority of the home team over the opposition in any given fixture.  This hasn't been a factor in either the selection or staking process thus far due to the success and lack of defeats I've experienced but I'm hoping that the larger the 'sample pool' gets, the more potentially relevant these 'supremacy ratings' may be.  I'm obviously reluctant to alter anything until at least 100 bets are reached due to this sample size factor but just to give a quick snapshot of the current situation regarding these ratings, below are the highest, lowest and median rated selections so far.....

Highest: SPARTA v BRNO @ 7.92
Median: BE'ER SHEVA v B. SAKHNIN @ 3.99
Lowest: ESTORIL v BRAGA @ 0.86

Curiously all of the defeats and half of the draws have fallen below a 'supremacy rating' of 3.50 which, while the sample size of 66 is still limited, is interesting.  The obvious caveat is that although the win % drops below this rating, the odds are enhanced given the disparity between the two teams is much less.  As it stands, the selections below this 'invisible line' are still showing an overall profit but I'll be certainly keeping a close eye on the proceeding 34 bets where this is concerned.

I forgot to answer why I  bet. Because it's interesting, is intelectually challenging and keeps my mind of work. I don't expect to win, but it's always nice if you do.

I may change soon.

Laying Chelsea now.

HI Robd.

I'm officially the second best tipster in our house now.  Ruby's number one.  She's a goldfish.

Do you think Betfair will give me half of my losses back on any unquoted.  I was half-right as only one of the teams scored four or more.

I must have had a few to many to drink last night as when I saw my balance this morning I thought "oh dear". On checking my statement It didn't tally with my balance. Yes I'd lost but not enough to get the balance down to where it was. But checking outstanding bets I saw I'd had three more bets: Cardiff to get relegated, West Brom to stay up and laying the draw on SA-Aus test match. No recollection of these at all!

Tonight I'm backing Rubin Kazan to win and same on DNB.

Glad you won last night and look forward to your selections over the weekend.  Getting 3/4 way to target would be very impressive.

Take care.

PS Where's the Forum button gone?