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Bet 86 - HEERENVEEN v ZWOLLE @ 18:45
Win: 1.57 ~ DNB: 1.22 ~ Lay: 6.80 S/R = 1.21 ~ Rank = 82 of 86 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hi,
They did make the potentials (first of the 15:00's in the 10:02 post this morning) but they didn't qualify as a selection due to a lack of market influence in their favour mate  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WD on those early games Robd...
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Cheers Bergy,
Assuming that a 1.01 gubbing isn't on the horizon at Stamford Bridge then it's been a good day. The Heerenveen game will be a bonus although I wouldn't be too surprised if that didn't come in as it's S/R (Supremacy Rating) is pretty poor at 1.21 (the 6th worst ranked selection of the process so far). Hope all was good for you too mate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Oh I see and what would you class as a significant market mover? Good system so far.
Rather than go to the trouble of picking out selections why not just back anything less than 2.00 if the market moves? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hi,
This method came about as a bit of a hybrid between a couple of systems I played around with previously to be honest. One was based around backing both home and away teams on a purely statistical basis and another one was (as you suggested) blindly backing market movers. The overall results of both were pretty erratic to be fair as common sense suggests that when implementing any system (which is inflexible and far-reaching by nature), backing teams from a purely statistical basis misses one of the major factors influencing the outcome of a game, the team news. Likewise, following the market blind renders any potential gap in quality between the two teams as negligible so I kind of fused aspects from both and came up with this. The results have been pretty good so far but I plan to implement certain improvements when I get to 100 bets which I believe can enhance the level of profit but the proof is in the pudding as they say so watch this space | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Daily Review - 08.03.14
(83) BRENTFORD v BRADFORD: 2-0 (84) GALA'RAY v A. BEL'SPOR: 6-1 (85) CHELSEA v SPURS: 4-0 (86) H'RENVEEN v ZWOLLE: 3-0 Any day that ends with an aggregate score of 15-1 is always welcome . 4 wins from 4 has hopefully gone a long way to reach the 300% profit mark by the time a century of bets are chalked up....Selections: 86 (W 64 ~ D 17 ~ L 5) Daily P/L: +£50.28 (+25.14%) Weekly P/L: +£65.56 (+32.78%) Overall P/L: +£585.56 (+292.78%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wd
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Potential Selections - 09.03.14
Apologies for the slightly truncated list as I'm off to work at 16:00 but may be back in time for some South American stuff tonight.....
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Bet 87 - GAZ'SPOR v KAY'SPOR @ 11:30
Win: 2.05 ~ DNB: 1.50 ~ Lay: 4.30 S/R = 3.08 ~ Rank = 56 of 87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cheers swebih
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Wd Rob on a super run, Gaziantepspor Won.. £26 traded @ 36 when 1 goal behind and a early Red
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Bet 88 - PARMA v VERONA @ 14:00
Win: 1.75 ~ DNB: 1.30 ~ Lay: 6.20 S/R = 2.26 ~ Rank = 71 of 90 Bet 89 - LOK. ZAGREB v ZADAR @ 14:00 Win: 1.44 ~ DNB: 1.25 ~ Lay: 8.60 S/R = 2.22 ~ Rank = 70 of 90 Bet 90 - ANTAL'SPOR v RIZ'SPOR @ 14:00 Win: 2.00 ~ DNB: 1.44 ~ Lay: 4.40 S/R = 1.18 ~ Rank = 86 of 90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cheers Broomwagon!
Yeah I did have to have a little check myself to see how high they went but I must admit I got pretty lucky with that game. Gaziantepspor were really poor in the 1st half and although they were denied a penalty for handball early on, they couldn't string a pass together and were generally garbage so I had kissed that bet goodbye if I'm being honest. But that's football I suppose and the good thing about sticking it on a thread is that when lady luck inevitably isn't on my side (which must be coming pretty soon), I can look back at this post which will hopefully ease the pain | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Daily Review - 09.03.14
(87) GAZ'SPOR v KAY'SPOR: 2-1 (88) PARMA v VERONA: 2-0 (89) LOK. ZAGREB v ZADAR: 1-3 (90) ANTAL'SPOR v RIZ'SPOR: 1-2 Selections: 90 (W 66 ~ D 17 ~ L 7) Daily P/L: -£71.88 (-35.94%) Weekly P/L: -£6.32 (-3.16%) Overall P/L: +£513.68 (+256.84%) Ouch! It was looking so good up until those last 2 but it wasn't to be I suppose. The silver lining in those defeats is that it has re-affirmed my thoughts in potential changes that will be implemented to my system after 100 bets are reached. One of the more obvious things that stand out to me are the impact of the S/R's (Supremacy Ratings) when looking at the P/L thus far. When all 90 bets are ranked from top to bottom my their S/R's (where top is the highest rating and bottom is the lowest), the following figures shows the P/L differential.... S/R of more than 2.75 = +237.86% S/R of less than 2.75 = +18.98% It's something that will be addressed in 10 bets time but it's food for thought in the meantime . All the usual guff for Week 9 will be whacked on the blog tomorrow morning so feel free to take a look if it floats your boat | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Morning Rob been thinking about your staking plan, and assuming I have it correct wouldn't it be just as easy to go 15/45 (win/lay) rather than 10/20/30 (win/dnb/lay) ??
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Hi PC,
Yeah good call mate. I'll definitely be looking at the staking plan after 100 bets and altering the %'s accordingly when analysing the profit per pound figures on each of the 3 bet types so cheers for the suggestion | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 10.03.14
17:30 - ASTRA v PANDURII 18:00 - MIDT'LAND v SONDER'SKE 18:30 - D. BUCHAREST v C. BRASOV 18:50 - M. TEL AVIV v B. JERUSALEM 21:00 - SOCIEDAD v VALLECANO Week 9's figures are now up on the blog | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 11.03.14
14:00 - CARPI v PADOVA 17:30 - MARITZBURG v F.S STARS 19:45 - BRENTFORD v TRANMERE 19:45 - P'BORO v BRISTOL C 19:45 - BRISTOL R v DAG & RED 19:45 - SCUNTHORPE v SOUTHEND No bets yesterday | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Off to work now but Bristol Rovers and Scunthorpe look promising
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Just the 1 tonight........
Bet 91 - BRISTOL R v DAG & RED @ 19:45 Win: 1.91 ~ DNB: 1.40 ~ Lay: 4.90 S/R = 2.35 ~ Rank = 69 of 91 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Daily Review - 11.03.14
(91) BRISTOL R v DAG & RED: 1-2 Another defeat for a selection with an S/R of less than 2.75 widens the P/L gap further and confirms that these will be ditched after 100 bets are reached..... S/R of more than 2.75 = +237.86% S/R of less than 2.75 = -11.02% ......which leaves the overall figures as follows: Selections: 91 (W 66 ~ D 17 ~ L 8) Daily P/L: -£60.00 (-30.00%) Weekly P/L: -£60.00 (-30.00%) Overall P/L: +£453.68 (+226.84%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 12.03.14
16:00 - B'FONTEIN v POLOKWANE 19:45 - WIGAN v SHEFF WED 19:45 - DUNDEE UTD v ST J'STON 19:45 - INVERNESS v HIBS 19:45 - SHEFF UTD v CARLISLE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 92 - SHEFF UTD v CARLISLE @ 19:45
Win: 1.62 ~ DNB: 1.25 ~ Lay: 6.80 S/R = 4.33 ~ Rank = 31 of 92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Daily Review - 12.03.14
(92) SHEFF UTD v CARLISLE: 1-0 Selections: 92 (W 67 ~ D 17 ~ L 8) Daily P/L: +£16.11 (+8.06%) Weekly P/L: -£43.89 (-21.94%) Overall P/L: +£469.79 (+234.90%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 13.03.14
15:30 - LOVECH v CHERNO MORE 23:00 - AT. HUILA v DEP. TOLIMA | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 14.03.14
13:30 - S. SOFIA v NEFT'MIK 17:30 - AALEN v BOCHUM 17:30 - PADERBORN v DRESDEN 19:00 - CAMBUUR v RKC 19:00 - DIJON v LE HAVRE 19:00 - ACS POLI v BRASOV 19:30 - L. POZNAN v POD'ZIE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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have backed 4 of those !
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Haven't finished todays 'potentials' yet (there are more than normal!) but this is an early one that's a qualifier (albeit a sub-2.75 S/R one)......
Bet 93 - KASIMPASA v G'BIRLIGI @ 11:30 Win: 1.83 ~ DNB: 1.36 ~ Lay: 5.00 S/R = 1.97 ~ Rank = 77 of 93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Potential Selections - 15.03.14
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Bet 94 - L. GDANSK v WIDZEW LODZ @ 14:30
Win: 1.62 ~ DNB: 1.22 ~ Lay: 7.80 S/R = 4.07 ~ Rank = 39 of 94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 95 - WATFORD v BARNSLEY @ 15:00
Win: 1.53 ~ DNB: 1.20 ~ Lay: 7.20 S/R = 3.63 ~ Rank = 49 of 95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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just one?
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Everton's price has fallen slightly
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Yeah afraid so Biggy,
Everton & York were nibbled at but not quite enough to get me on board though whereas as Watford were being cut across the board. They seem to be doing alright at the moment but it's early days | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 96 - JAGODINA v VOZDOVAC @ 16:00
Win: 1.60 ~ DNB: 1.17 ~ Lay: 8.20 S/R = 1.83 ~ Rank = 80 of 96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 97 - ESTORIL v MARITIMO @ 18:00
Win: 1.73 ~ DNB: 1.29 ~ Lay: 6.60 S/R = 2.37 ~ Rank = 72 of 97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 98 - ESTORIL v MARITIMO @ 20:15
Win: 1.95 ~ DNB: 1.40 ~ Lay: 5.00 S/R = 2.84 ~ Rank = 67 of 98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 98 - V. GUIMARAES v PACOS D.F @ 20:15
Win: 1.95 ~ DNB: 1.40 ~ Lay: 5.00 S/R = 2.84 ~ Rank = 67 of 98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bet 99 - CRUZ AZUL v TIJUANA @ 23:00
Win: 1.65 ~ DNB: 1.25 ~ Lay: 7.20 S/R = 5.35 ~ Rank = 13 of 99 |