Extremely impressive mate.

Once you have tweaked the system once again, will you continue posting each day? I would love to be able to follow you. To be honest, all these methods you have developed seem to be very successful and you really have found something great!

Keep me updated please!!

Hello to all and hope you had good summers!

With the majority of leagues around the world starting to take shape, it's time for me to dust off my abacus and get back in the saddle.  For those who weren't aware of the thread last season, I basically started a varied statistical approach to fixtures from 50 leagues around the world with my aim being to create my own rating system which assigns a numerical value to any given fixture to represent a potential gap in quality between the opponents and therefore make the superior team a viable betting proposition.  After a degree of research, 'trial & error' testing, refinement and tinkering, I produced a numerical value system which I referred to as a 'Supremacy Rating' (S/R for short).  The history and results of this approach can be seen on my blog (accessed by hovering over my username at the top) but to cut a long story short, a profit was made.

Alternative markets were also explored throughout last season which again, were shown to be profitable ('Goal Markets' for example) and I have and still do adopt these approaches in my personal day-to-day betting but aspects of this were too time consuming and deadline driven to be conducive to a forum format so this season I plan to just concentrate on a single approach.  After spending the summer looking back over a variety of aspects of 'Home Favourites', only minor tinkering has taken place due to the impressive results of this approach and I plan to roll it out from October 1st.  One of the changes however may have to be the name I now no longer just look at fixtures where the home side is favourite so I apologise in advance should I put up an away side for selection! 

The fundamentals will remain.....3 bets per selection: 1% Win, 2% Draw No Bet and 3% Laying the opposition.  This staking plan will apply to a starting bank of £1000.00 with the aim to make 3% per month.  At the end of each month....if in profit: 3% will be withdrawn with any potential surplus being added to the overall bank....if in deficit: 3% will be withdrawn but only to be taken either from any previous surplus or to be later withdrawn from any future surplus until full percentage is paid.  (If it doesn't make sense now then it should do when we get underway). 

I have been testing this newly refined method from September 1st but as both teams in any given fixture must have played at least 5 home & 5 away games to be analysed, this has restricted the number of possible qualifying selections due to the time of year.  9 have played so far with another 2 coming prior to Oct 1st but so far so good as all 9 have won (with an aggregate score of 35-8!).  The nature of the beast means that the selections will be priced up on the short side but I like to see my individual ratings as a tool to decipher which 'bankers' are value and which 'bankers' aren't.  Perceived red hot certs that meet my criteria will get turned over (as a regression to the mean is inevitable for my selections) and I'm sure I'll get criticism for it (average selection so far for September is priced at 1.46) but as long as your goals are reasonable, as I did show last season, I believe a reasonable profit can be obtained.

Future selections will be updated every Monday (which will cover the Monday to Thursday fixtures)and Friday (which will cover the Friday to Sunday) fixtures.  As with last season, daily reviews will be posted on this thread whereas weekly ones will be posted on my blog so feel free to 'follow' the blog by selecting the follow button in the top right corner of the blog screen (I think?).  As always feel free to contact me regarding any questions or queries and lets hope this will be another profitable season

Cheers sixpackad

Nice one waccoe

Hopefully it will turn a profit. With regards to the selections from September 1st mentioned in my post earlier, it's now 10 wins from 10 with Halmstads win this evening leaving just the one more selection before October.  Details of the selections thus far are as follows....

05-Sep - LA Galaxy v Colorado Rapids: S/R of 1.30 = 6-0
17-Sep - Cruzeiro v Atlético PR: S/R of 1.37 = 2-0
19-Sep - Real Salt Lake v Colorado Rapids: S/R of 1.15 = 5-1
20-Sep - Brommapojkarna v Häcken: S/R of 1.01 = 1-5
24-Sep - Helsingborg v Brommapojkarna: S/R of 1.40 = 3-1
27-Sep - Molde v Bodo / Glimt: S/R of 1.32 = 2-1
27-Sep - Seattle Sounders v Chivas USA: S/R of 1.35 = 4-2
28-Sep - Odd v Brann: S/R of 1.01 = 4-0
28-Sep - Internacional v Coritiba: S/R of 1.01 = 4-2
29-Sep - Brommapojkarna v Halmstad: S/R of 1.00 = 0-3
30-Sep - Shamrock Rovers v UCD: S/R of 1.24 = ???

How's it going Gooner!

From a betting perspective, the football naturally took a bit of a back seat as I concentrated more on the horses so you could see it as a 're-charging of the batteries' where that's concerned so now I'm ready and raring to go! 

Let's hope it's profitable

Welcome back Rob
Not seeing anything on the blog tho
All wiped

That would help Rob
Found it now
New forum only & new blog header tabs
Classic forum user here

Daily Review - 05.10.14


(17) Monterrey v Tijuana: 1-1
(18) Urawa Reds v Tokushima Vortis: 2-1
(19) HJK v Honka: 1-1
(20) Deportivo Cali v Uniautónoma: 0-4


It was an early start for yesterdays set of selections where my confidence was disappearing with every tick that Monterrey drifted in the minutes leading up to K.O, leaving the hosts odds graph looking like Everest.  Therefore, I wasn't too surprised to see Tijuana take a first half lead as it appeared increasingly like I was about to suffer two defeats in as many days.  Bad times.  However, with the fat lady gargling, a draw was snatched from the jaws of defeat in the 5th minute of injury time, turning a red book into a green one.  Next up was Japan where a top-versus-bottom clash was on the menu which surely must be a relatively straightforward victory?  Wrong.  Despite the paltry points tally accumulated by Tokushima and certain relegation looming, they took a shock lead in Saitama.  Thankfully it looks like this jolted Urawa into a sense of urgency as the hosts desperately needed a win to maintain their title bid.  After going into the break on level terms thanks to a Kashiwaga strike, the Rezzu eventually claimed a 2-1 victory.  The days third selection also featured an injury time equaliser but inevitably footballing karma intervened and neutralised the last gasp joy in Mexico with pain in Finland as champions HJK laboured to a 1-1 draw over Shefki Kuqi's (remember him?!) FC Honka.  Worst was still to come in Colombia, although on paper, there was little too fear from a Uniautónoma side that had notched just one solitary win in the last 14 league games and whose record on the road read:  Played = 15 / Won = 0 / Drawn = 5 / Lost = 10.  A trip to Cali must have seemed all the more daunting given Deportivo's enviable recent home form, gaining 8 victories in 11 matches.  But, as with the train I stopped in Sweden yesterday, likewise happened last night with an unfathomable 0-4 home capitulation to continue a lacklustre start to the month for the thread.  Things will improve and the overall P/L is still positive but with a reduction in domestic fixtures for over a week due to the international break, this bitter taste will remain for quite a while .
           

Selections: 20 (W 14 ~ D 4 ~ L 2)

Daily P/L: -£62.27 (-6.227%)

Monthly P/L: -£83.77 (-8.377%)

Overall P/L: +£52.93 (+5.293%)

Weekend Review


(21) Athlone Town v Dundalk: 0-3
(22) UCD v Cork City: 0-4
(23) Shamrock Rovers v Bray Wanderers: 1-0
(24) Real Salt Lake v SJ Earthquakes: 2-0


After a weekend of inebriation, I was hoping that the blurry view I had of the scores on my phone each night were rooted in factual reality so it was to much relief that when I had sobered up and returned to my humble abode, the results were as I thought.  A lovely looking aggregate score of 10-0 gets me back on track for October after a poor start but with 3 of the 4 selections being very much on the short side, the monthly P/L is still in the red.  Hopefully this deficit can be eradicated in the next 7 days, starting with the Monday - Thursday selections which will be posted shortly .....


Selections: 24 (W 18 ~ D 4 ~ L 2)

Weekend P/L: +£39.46 (+3.946%)

Monthly P/L: -£44.31 (-4.431%)

Overall P/L: +£92.39 (+9.239%)

Weekday Review


(25) Olimpija v Radomlje: 4-0
(26) HJK v MYPA: 2-0


A quiet midweek due to the internationals produced only a couple of selections which thankfully did the job albeit at skinny odds.  Ljubljana was Wednesdays destination and at the risk of sounding like a member of the Slovenian tourist board, if you haven't been then go.  Easily walkable city centre surrounded by lush countryside, delightful scenery, loads of bars, lovely people and very tasty beer.  Certainly ticked my boxes.  Getting back on topic, despite a missed penalty, Olimpija had enough in hand to deal with basement boys Radomlje gaining their second consecutive 4-0 home triumph to keep in-touch with early pacesetters Domzale.  In Finland, HJK qualified as a selection again this week and I hoped they had learned their lesson after the injury time equaliser they sloppily conceded last time, denting my wallet in the process.  Bursting out of the traps to take the lead after just 2 minutes, I sensed the 'Klubi' meant business as I envisaged the game being wrapped up by half time.  However, the champions kept up their habit of putting me through the ringer although when a late goal did occur, at least it was from HJK's substitute Nikolai Alho to seal the deal.  So a small yield was obtained to keep me going in the right direction with another couple of clean sheets to make the aggregate score of the last 6 selections 16-0.  Could this Barca-esque run last even longer?  I can always dream .


Selections: 26 (W 20 ~ D 4 ~ L 2)

Weekday P/L: +£14.14 (+1.414%)

Monthly P/L: -£30.17 (-3.017%)

Overall P/L: +£106.53 (+10.653%)


The Friday - Sunday selections will be posted tomorrow morning.