What does "Rank" mean Robd ?? Sorry of it is already explained ..cheers berg :)

Hi Berg,

Hope alls well.  The S/R refers to the 'Supremacy Rating' which is basically a value configurated from a variety of different data strands (form/goal diff/points etc..) which I envisaged would show the superiority of the home team over the opposition in any given fixture.  However the S/R shown in isolation would be meaningless without context therefore my aim was to show where each selections S/R ranked in regards to all my previous bets.  So taking the last bet as an example, it had an S/R of 5.35 ranking it 13 of 99 meaning that this is the 13th largest S/R out of all 99 bets placed thus far.  As it stands, the following selections are the highest, middle and lowest rated selections:

Highest: SPARTA v BRNO (S/R = 7.92)
Median: R. MADRID v VILLAREAL (S/R = 3.65)
Lowest: YORK v EXETER (S/R = 0.78)

So expressing the above selections in 'Rank' form would look like.....

SPARTA v BRNO (Rank = 1 of 99)
R. MADRID v VILLAREAL (Rank = 49 of 99)
YORK v EXETER (Rank = 99 of 99)

The aim of formulating the S/R was to gauge which teams were more/less likely to win whereby the higher the S/R, the bigger gulf in class so using the above examples you would expect Sparta to beat Brno far more than York to win against Exeter.

The reason for introducing this measure was basically for 'quality control' as if I could see after analysing , say 100 bets for example, that the majority of losing selections were found to be rated below a certain S/R then my selection process going forward would only include those home favourites with a S/R over a certain level.

Daily Review - 15.03.14


(93) KASIMPASA v G'BIRLIGI: 1-2
(94) L. GDANSK v WIDZEW LODZ: 2-0
(95) WATFORD v BARNSLEY: 3-0
(96) JAGODINA v VOZDOVAC: 0-0
(97) ESTORIL v MARITIMO: 1-0
(98) V. GUIMARAES v PACOS D.F: 1-2
(99) CRUZ AZUL v TIJUANA: 2-1


Well from an all-round view, yesterday wasn't much cop at all but in going forward with the shiny new & improved 'Home Favourites MK II', it was very much reassuring.  All the higher S/R selections won (Bets 94/95 & 99) meaning that the P/L gap between those selections with an S/R of less/more than 3.00 ever widens.....
 

S/R of more than 3.00 = +258.24%

S/R of less than 3.00 = -54.87%


As stated previously, this will be one of the changes that will be made to my system after 1 more bet is reached (which should be today) where I propose to take stock and analyse throughout the week (posting various bits of interesting findings in the process) and plan to start again on Friday.


Selections: 99 (W 71 ~ D 18 ~ L 10)

Daily P/L: -£63.06 (-31.53%)

Weekly P/L: -£106.95 (-53.48%)

Overall P/L: +£406.73 (+203.37%)

Bet 100 - LEGIA v WISLA @ 12:00

Win: 1.67 ~ DNB: 1.29 ~ Lay: 7.00

S/R = 2.29  ~  Rank = 76 of 100

All ready to go Rod?

Interested to see you've excluded Everton, didn't they quite make the 2.75? I have them as vastly superior to Swans apart from a small blip in the last home game.

Hi Biggy,

One of the current potential 'flaws' in my system is it's inability to decipher the quality of the opposition faced when taking into account recent form and this is a good example.  Everton didn't make the shortlist as they have an inferior GD to Swansea in the last 6 league games but common sense would suggest that Everton have faced stiffer opposition than Swansea which would render this particular bit of data weak.  However, as I'm sure you'll agree by looking at the results of this process, I haven't yet got statistical justification to amend this 'loophole'. 

I have a plan in mind should this become an issue which would include calculating the 'average points per game' of each opposition faced in the form guide, averaging the 6 different values & then applying this to the respective points/GD figures regarding the recent form stats.  But I'll let it ride in it's slightly tweaked current format for at least 50 bets before I potentially alter anything further. 

GL anyway and I hope they win if you back them mate

Bet 2 - TRENCIN v NITRA @ 16:30

Win: 1.40 ~ DNB: 1.17 ~ Lay: 9.40

S/R = 8.39  ~  Rank = 1 of 2

Bet 4 - VALENCIENNES v AJACCIO @ 19:00

Win: 1.53 ~ DNB: 1.18 ~ Lay: 7.80

S/R = 3.02  ~  Rank = 4 of 4

Yesterdays antics across the channel left a bad taste in the mouth but with the loss in France occurring with a selection with an S/R of 3.02 (and with the only other loss having an S/R of 3.11), it appears that the quality bar may need to be raised slightly.  If the cut-off point was set at an S/R of 3.25 for example, the results (taking into consideration both yesterdays and the previous 100 bets) would be as follows.....

Selections:  58

W~D~L:  49 ~ 9 ~ 0  (84.48% ~ 15.52% ~ 0.00%)

I'll have a think and review it after the weekend but for the meantime I'll carry on as previously outlined ....

Potential Selections - 23.03.14

13:00 - PAOK v PAS GIANNINA
13:00 - ST ETIENNE v SOCHAUX
14:00 - INTER v ATALANTA
14:00 - UDINESE v SASSUOLO
14:30 - U. CATOLICA v U. CHILE
15:15 - ATROMITOS v PLATANIAS
15:30 - SALZBURG v W. NEUSTADT
16:00 - SPORTING v GIRONA
16:00 - KOBENHAVN v RANDERS
17:00 - BESIKTAS v AKHISAR
17:30 - NAPOLI v FIORENTINA
18:00 - PUMAS v MONTERREY
18:00 - BRONDBY v OB
18:00 - GODOY CRUZ v ARSENAL
18:00 - BENFICA v ACADEMICA
19:00 - U. ESPANOLA v RANGERS
19:15 - PORTO v BELENENSES
19:45 - LAZIO v MILAN
20:00 - MONACO v LILLE
22:30 - COLO COLO v O'HIGGINS

Ouch! Well I'll be back tomorrow to examine the carcass of a shocking weekend but just to confirm that Colo Colo are a no bet as I ballsed up the figures (that'll teach me to tackle leagues with an Apertura & Clausura when I'm tired!).

Potential Selections - 24.03.14

17:30 - SENICA v S. TRNAVA
18:50 - M. TEL AVIV v H. TEL AVIV

Will have to update later when I'm back from work

Evening,

There was just the 1 qualifier tonight but yet again it was a slightly disappointing result as a Maccabi Tel Aviv managed a goalless draw against their city rivals, surprising as they had beaten them away last week despite having 10 men for over 50 mins ...

Bet 7 - M. TEL AVIV v H. TEL AVIV @ 18:50

Win: 1.53 ~ DNB: 1.20 ~ Lay: 7.80

S/R = 5.69  ~  Rank = 2 of 7

I would guess Leicester and Wolves

Sadly yes! Only checked the first 5 or 6 before KO though. Oh well, busy W/E coming up.

Potential Selections - 26.03.14

16:30 - K'SLAUTERN v ARMINIA
17:30 - PANA'KOS v KALLONI
19:00 - HOFFENHAIM v HANOVER
19:00 - BARCA v CELTA
19:30 - GRODIG v STURM GRAZ
19:45 - ATALANTA v LIVORNO
19:45 - FIORENTINA v MILAN
20:00 - LIVERPOOL v SUNDERLAND
21:00 - ATLETICO v GRANADA

Potential Selections - 27.03.14

19:00 - SOCIEDAD v VALLADOLID

Potential Selections - 29.03.14

12:45 - MAN UTD v VILLA
14:00 - PESCARA v REGGINA
14:00 - EMPOLI v J. STABIA
14:00 - SIENA v BRESCIA
14:00 - TRAPANI v BARI
14:30 - BAYERN v HOFFENHEIM
14:30 - U. CHILE v U. LA CALERA
15:00 - READING v HUDD'FIELD
15:00 - QPR v BLACKPOOL
15:00 - PRESTON v CRAWLEY
15:00 - ORIENT v BRADFORD
15:00 - ROTHERHAM v BRISTOL C
15:00 - SOUTHEND v TORQUAY
15:00 - SCUNTHORPE v WYCOMBE
15:00 - CELTIC v ROSS C
15:00 - MOTHERWELL v KILLIE
15:00 - ST JOHNSTONE v PARTICK
15:00 - Q OF THE S v G. MORTON
15:30 - RAPID v STURM GRAZ
16:00 - ESBJERG v VEST'LAND
16:00 - PIRATES v SWALLOWS
16:30 - PALESTINO v RANGERS
17:00 - CRACOVIA v W. LODZ
17:30 - EIBAR v BARCA II
18:00 - SALZBURG v W. INNSBRUCK
19:00 - KORTRIJK v CERCLE
19:00 - GENT v OOSTEND
19:15 - PLZEN v S. LIBEREC
19:30 - L. GDANSK V P. GLIWICE
19:45 - PSV v GRONINGEN
19:45 - MILAN v CHIEVO
20:15 - SPORTING v V. GUIMARAES
21:00 - R. MADRID v VALLECANO
23:00 - CRUZ AZUL v ATLAS
23:15 - NEWELL'S v QUILMES
23:30 - A. RAFFAELA v RACING

Bet 10 - ESBJERG v VEST'LAND @ 16:00

Win: 1.67 ~ DNB: 1.29 ~ Lay: 6.80

S/R = 3.06  ~  Rank = 9 of 10

Bet 12 - PLZEN v S. LIBEREC @ 19:15

Win: 1.50 ~ DNB: 1.20 ~ Lay: 7.20

S/R = 3.24  ~  Rank = 10 of 12