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Lay Liverpool - Season thread

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By:

pushkin99 When: 16 Mar 14 16:41

admit it BJ69 YX:YX you are a complete betting BUFFOON

By:

pushkin99 When: 16 Mar 14 23:51

I am sooooooooooooooo happy that the betting BUFFOON - BJ69 YX:YX - has done his conkers yet again in his bigoted one eyed pursuit of laying Liverpool

even better BJ69 YX:YX's beloved chavski also got well and truly battered last night

By:

CJ70 When: 17 Mar 14 00:23

Nice to see I'm now a Chelsea fan.

By:

pushkin99 When: 17 Mar 14 01:22

BJ69 YX:YX has been fully exposed on this thread as a betting BUFFOON

unable to grasp simple betting concepts or easy mathematics when it is explained very slooooooooowly to him

By:

ours4keeps When: 17 Mar 14 11:32

Anyone else get the felling that CJ gave up on actually laying us a long time ago but is now obliged to post his "bets" each week anyway.

By:

Stringer When: 17 Mar 14 12:15

By:

ocukstinky When: 18 Mar 14 00:28

And is this is why Liverpool fans are so hated. At least if you don't win,you always have 'next year'..

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 00:33

The funny thing is that some of the most vocal Liverpool fans on here claimed to be supporting another club earlier in the season

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 00:35

At the end of the day this thread is full of Liverpool supporters whining when they win but empty when they don't. Most of them have no concept of season betting and that in itself tells a story.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 01:14

I think most understand the concept of season betting is massively flawed, bordering on idiotic. To have an opinion in August is one thing, but to have that disproved time and time again yet still carry on backing it is almost masochistic.

Seriously CJ, were it not for your commitment on this thread you cannot possibly have thought that Liverpool at 2.98 at that Utd team was a good lay. I don't see how any sane person could look at those odds and those teams and think "Liverpool are a bit short here". Seriously, if you did, you're in the wrong game son.

I can well understand the laying at short odds on to fodder and next Saturday's a good example of that but you have to pick your battles not just blindly back something whether you think it's value or not. You may as well just pick 3 numbers and bet on the Irish lottery every week.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 01:20

*sigh*

That post sums up that you don't understand the thread.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 01:23

Don't want to address the points then...

As I rather clearly stated, I understand it - I just think it's idiotic.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 01:27

Mar 18, 2014 -- 1:23AM, ours4keeps wrote:

Don't want to address the points then...As I rather clearly stated, I understand it - I just think it's idiotic.

You make no points of any interest. It's the same nonsense that we were getting week in week out with Liverpool fans in 20 different threads. "I think Liverpool will win so only an idiot backs against"

All this thread does is put in one place what every trader/price savvy punter knows.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 01:30

Did you think Liverpool at 2.98 were too short on sunday?

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 01:34

Mar 18, 2014 -- 1:30AM, ours4keeps wrote:

Did you think Liverpool at 2.98 were too short on sunday?

Have you not read this thread in the slightest?

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 01:48

There you are ignoring the question again...

As for reading the thread

"We all know the price is wrong each week..."

So, my argument is - sometimes it's wrong, sometimes it isn't. Are you still sticking by "it's wrong every week"? And, did you think it was wrong yesterday?

Don't know why you're being so evasive about it. Not trying to be an arse about it, I'm just genuinely intrigued as to the decision making behind it.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 02:23

I'm going to start banging my head against the wall soon.

The Liverpool price is ALWAYS wrong. Prices for similar clubs that have won at Old Trafford this season.

Everton 4.6
Spurs 5.1
Newcastle 7.1

Up until last week all had arguably better away records than Liverpool.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 02:42

...and those 3 teams all won, contributing to Utd's 4 losses at home till Sunday. Arsenal were 3.10 there too btw.

Do you not agree that only looking at one team and ignoring the opposition completely is flawed?

So what price would you have had Liverpool then out of interest. 4.00? 4.50? 5.00?

By:

Captain Wurzel When: 18 Mar 14 09:14

The Liverpool price is ALWAYS wrong

Keep ploughing on CJ70 - this threads a classic.

By:

kenilworth When: 18 Mar 14 10:08

Backing Liverpool in every League match this season
so far, would have produced a profit to backers of
2.80, therefore a loss to layers, of 10% of their bank.
Liverpool have over achieved but then some sides do.
The best performers this season have been Villa (+13.60)
and Newcastle (+16.93)

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 10:36

Mar 18, 2014 -- 2:42AM, ours4keeps wrote:

...and those 3 teams all won, contributing to Utd's 4 losses at home till Sunday. Arsenal were 3.10 there too btw. Do you not agree that only looking at one team and ignoring the opposition completely is flawed?So what price would you have had Liverpool then out of interest. 4.00? 4.50? 5.00?

Yes, they won. Which is why I wrote that they won in the previous post.

Not sure you've quite got the idea yet. The opposition and whether you think a team will win simply doesn't matter if the price is consistently wrong.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 10:44

The opposition and the chances of winning are 2 of the major factors of whether a price is right or wrong surely. I'm guessing you've never professionally compiled or traded a day in your life. Not being offensive, you just sound very naïve. A price or team is never consistently wrong. There are lots of variables and the skill is in analyzing all of those and using your judgment to decide what the price should be and how that compares to what's on offer. If you genuinely think Liverpool were too short at 2.98 against Utd you are really in the wrong game.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 11:01

Mar 18, 2014 -- 10:44AM, ours4keeps wrote:

The opposition and the chances of winning are 2 of the major factors of whether a price is right or wrong surely. I'm guessing you've never professionally compiled or traded a day in your life. Not being offensive, you just sound very naïve. A price or team is never consistently wrong. There are lots of variables and the skill is in analyzing all of those and using your judgment to decide what the price should be and how that compares to what's on offer. If you genuinely think Liverpool were too short at 2.98 against Utd you are really in the wrong game.

We get it. It was a big price because you are a fan of the team and you thought they'd win.

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 13:13

CJ

on all known evidence this season the liverpool price has been quite accurate, the man u price has been wrong. they have been a shambles but the market has consistently over hyped their chances in games.

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 13:14

you seem to be one of those that doesn't see a change in circumstances of what has actually been happening this season.

By:

lurka When: 18 Mar 14 14:01

'a price or team is never consistently wrong'
'this season..... the man u price has been wrong....the market has consistently overhyped their chances in games'
Consistently inconsistent.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 14:15

Mar 18, 2014 -- 1:14PM, stridingedge wrote:

you seem to be one of those that doesn't see a change in circumstances of what has actually been happening this season.

The only change in circumstances is that Liverpool have had a winning run so suddenly the thread is full of whining Liverpool fans.

The thread has been here all season, so the argument that Liverpool are winning so the price must be right doesn't really wash with anyone bar fans.

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 14:15

Mar 18, 2014 -- 2:01PM, lurka wrote:

'a price or team is never consistently wrong''this season..... the man u price has been wrong....the market has consistently overhyped their chances in games'Consistently inconsistent.

I've long given up on Liverpool logic.

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 15:15

the thread has never been in a decent profit all season as one would expect

you are blindly laying without thought to the game or the relative form etc

it was said months ago on here you would not make a profit doing this and this has been shown to be true

are you really telling me laying man u would not have been better this season, REALLY ?

you seem to have a bit of a problem anyway so i'll leave you to it!

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 15:18

lurka 18 Mar 14 13:01
'a price or team is never consistently wrong'
'this season..... the man u price has been wrong....the market has consistently overhyped their chances in games'
Consistently inconsistent.

in the long run you are indeed correct which highlights why this is such a foolish thread in the first place,

i would be utterly astounded if blindly laying man u this season has not been a better proposition than blindly laying liverpool

please soemone prove this to not be the case

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 15:49

Nothing to do with being a fan (or a bitter ABL for that matter). I've been in the game long enough and compiled and traded more than I care to remember to have a good nose for when a price is out. I thought Liverpool were too big sunday, likewise Arsenal and I had a nice double come up. I wouldn't touch us against Cardiff, and in fact it's a borderline lay at the current odds alongside Newcastle who I think are too short. But that's after I've put a bit of thought into it rather than just backing something blindly week in week out even though it's costing you money, if indeed you are continuing to bet it which I doubt.

By:

ours4keeps When: 18 Mar 14 15:52

It stands to reason a lay of Utd would be quids in this year especially compared to LFC. But again, that's with the benefit of hindsight. Whatever happened to analysis, weighing up all the factors, pricing games up, and then measuring if you're right or wrong. We can all be a gob**** and pick a team to back or lay but it's both idiotic and puerile.

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 16:25

i've done the figs on laying utd in the league

will post in a bit am busy on racing running a comp.

the crap8y champs league group they were in probably massages the 'every game' lay but in the league they show a big loss to level stakes backing them.

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 16:25

*using betfair odds

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 16:47

laying utd £10 every league game at base 5% comm to betfair odds

EPL game	lay odds	res	game p&l	running p&l
swansea v man u	2.12	w	-11.2	-11.2
man u v chelsea	2.29	d	9.5	-1.7
liverpool v man u	3.09	l	9.5	7.8
man u v crystal p	1.18	w	-1.8	6
man c v man utd	3.48	l	9.5	15.5
man u v west brom	1.3	l	9.5	25
sunderland v man u	1.53	w	-5.3	19.7
man u v southampton	1.54	d	9.5	29.2
man u v stoke	1.32	w	-3.2	26
fulham v man u	1.51	w	-5.1	20.9
man u v arsenal	2.27	w	-12.7	8.2
cardiff v man u	1.69	d	9.5	17.7
spurs v man u	2.63	d	9.5	27.2
man u v everton	1.76	l	9.5	36.7
man u v newcastle	1.46	l	9.5	46.2
aston v v man u	1.7	w	-7	39.2
man u v west ham	1.31	w	-3.1	36.1
hull v man u	1.61	w	-6.1	30
norwich v man u	1.66	w	-6.6	23.4
man u v spurs	1.66	l	9.5	32.9
man u v swansea	1.55	w	-5.5	27.4
chelsea v man u	5.3	l	9.5	36.9
man u v cardiff	1.21	w	-2.1	34.8
stoke v man u	1.47	l	9.5	44.3
man u v fulham	1.17	d	9.5	53.8
arsenal v man u	3.18	d	9.5	63.3
crystal p v man u	1.58	w	-5.8	57.5
west brom v man u	1.82	w	-8.2	49.3
man u v liverpool	2.46	l	9.5	58.8

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 18:14

What would the running total be if you were laying Maccabi Um al Fahm all year?

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 18:21

they must be about 25's to win a game cj

By:

CJ70 When: 18 Mar 14 18:25

But the price doesn't matter as long as they don't win, surely?

By:

stridingedge When: 18 Mar 14 18:33

so if they win their next game at 33's it doesn't matter, the price always matters.

what is your point here with regards this thread, i don't get what you are trying to say.

you said laying man u like you have layed liverpool would not have been a good thing to do didn't you?

surely at the moment this thread is a bit of a duffer

of course things may change in the long run as you would expect but your laying liverpool thread would have been better being a lay man u thread this season.

By:

Stringer When: 18 Mar 14 18:34