There are in theory 81 combinations, but most of them can be broken down. For example if man city win/win then the utd combinations for those don't matter.

I'd say the "critical" combinations are the following:

(1) City win/win
(2) City Win/draw or draw/win and utd win/win
(6) City win/lose or lose/win and utd win/draw, draw/win, win/win
(5) City draw/draw and utd win/lose, lose/win, win/draw, draw/win, win/win
(12) City draw/lose or lose/draw and utd draw/draw, win/lose, lose/win, win/draw, draw/win, win/win
(1 - sort of!) City lose/lose and utd do anything except lose/lose.

So that breaks it down to 27 of the 81 that require close examination. Perhaps that's still too much sadly.

My Ratings & Odds for Spain

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Barcelona	108.5		Getafe	86.5
Real Madrid	105.0		Real Betis	86.0
Athletic Bilbao	93.5		Villareal	86.0
Valencia	93.5		Mallorca	85.5
Athletico Madrid	93.5		Rayo Vallecano	84.0
Malaga	92.5		Real Sociedad	84.5
Levante	91.0		Granada	83.0
Seville	90.0		Real Zaragoza	84.0
Espanyol	88.5		Sporting Gijon	82.0
Osasuna	87.0		Racing Santander	80.5

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
1.67	Athletic Bilbao		4.29	Getafe		5.95
2.12	Atletico Madrid		3.75	Malaga		3.83
1.22	Barcelona		7.82	Espanyol		19.46
9.09	Granada		5.34	Real Madrid		1.42
2.97	Mallorca		3.36	Levante		2.74
1.98	Osasuna		3.88	Real Sociedad		4.23
1.90	Real Zaragoza		3.96	Racing Santander		4.52
1.72	Sevilla		4.19	Rayo Vallecano		5.51
2.81	Sporting Gijon		3.32	Real Betis		2.92
1.64	Valencia		4.35	Villarreal		6.17

Will sort out some bets tommorow after closer look at the permutations of the table.

Done all these

£4 (Liabilty) Lay, Mallorca@1.89 & £3 Levante@4.9
£2 (Liabilty) Lay, Barcelona@1.17
£6 Athletic Bilbao@2.06
£3 (Liabilty) Lay,Real Zaragoza@1.38 & £2 Santander@11
£4 (Liabilty) Lay,Sporting Gijon@1.76 & £3 Real Betis@4.9
£5 Real Madrid@1.52
£3 Valencia@1.82
£4 Sevilla @1.95

changed Everton Lay to £4 @1.83

	|Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
70	Granada v Real Madrid		£2.47	£5 Real Madrid@1.52			£5.00		£7.47	£337.12		£336.49	99.81%		£299.37
71	Newcastle v Man City		£5.88	£3.88Lay, Man City@1.70		£2 Newcastle@5.4	£5.88		£0.00	£343.00		£336.49	98.10%		£293.49
72	Fulham v Sunderland		£5.00	£3 Lay, Fulham@1.84		£2 Sunderland@4.9	£5.00		£0.00
73	QPR v Stoke		£7.00	£5 Lay,QPR@1.89		£2 Stoke@4.9	£7.00		£0.00
74	Wolves v Everton		£1.73	£4 Lay,Everton@1.83		£3 Wolves@5.5	£7.00		£8.73	£337.12		£336.49	99.81%		£299.37
75	Bolton v West Brom		£2.00	£2 West Brom@4			£2.00		£0.00	£364.00		£345.22	94.84%		£281.22
76	Man Utd v Swansea		£2.00	£2 Swansea@21			£2.00		£0.00	£366.00		£345.22	94.32%		£279.22
77	Cagliari v Juventus		£6.00	£4 Lay,Juventus@1.29		£2 Cagliari@16	£6.00		£0.00
78	Inter v AC Milan		£13.32	£3.96 Lay,AC Milan@1.96		£3 Inter@4.3	£6.96		£20.28	£378.96		£365.50	96.45%		£286.54

Draw is 3.6 on here ,Liverpool 2.38, Chelsea 3.25 so a no bet

Could maybe get decent prices matched if i leave a bet up but that might just be because Chelsea playing weakened team

	|Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
70	Granada v Real Madrid		£2.47	£5 Real Madrid@1.52			£5.00		£7.47	£337.12		£336.49	99.81%		£299.37
71	Newcastle v Man City		£5.88	£3.88 Lay, Man City@1.70		£2 Newcastle@5.4	£5.88		£0.00	£343.00		£336.49	98.10%		£293.49
72	Fulham v Sunderland		£5.00	£3 Lay, Fulham@1.84		£2 Sunderland@4.9	£5.00		£0.00
73	QPR v Stoke		£7.00	£5 Lay,QPR@1.89		£2 Stoke@4.9	£7.00		£0.00
74	Wolves v Everton		£1.73	£4 Lay,Everton@1.83		£3 Wolves@5.5	£7.00		£8.73	£337.12		£336.49	99.81%		£299.37
75	Bolton v West Brom		£2.00	£2 West Brom@4			£2.00		£0.00	£364.00		£345.22	94.84%		£281.22
76	Man Utd v Swansea		£2.00	£2 Swansea@21			£2.00		£0.00	£366.00		£345.22	94.32%		£279.22
77	Cagliari v Juventus		£6.00	£4 Lay,Juventus@1.29		£2 Cagliari@16	£6.00		£0.00
78	Inter v AC Milan		£13.32	£3.96 Lay,AC Milan@1.96		£3 Inter@4.3	£6.96		£20.28	£378.96		£365.50	96.45%		£286.54
79	Blackburn v Wigan		£4.01	£4.01 Lay,Wigan@2.84			£4.01		£0.00	£382.97		£365.50	95.44%		£282.53

A 92% book on the German cup final :-) i presume it should be 3.21 Dortmiund. Why do you rate Munich higher, it can only be on the Euro form, since Dortmund are clearly a better league team, and have proven themselves superior to BM in head-to-head mayches over the last 2 seasons.

How do you rate a team?

I believe a teams rating is dynamic and a deep science, and would frequently change throughout the season - Wigan are a good example of this.

None the less a rare betting thread and I enjoyed reading it. WD.

Goal expectancy is the most important IMO, when trying
to calculate the likelyhood of a draw. The lower it is
the more likely a draw and then the draw price can be
calculated. It's not a bet I do very often as the market
gets it right nearly always.

ÖÐÎÄÂÛ̳, i do consider goal expectancy though not clear from this thread .I have other tables with higher/lower draw odds which i've not got round to putting up here

	|Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
79	Blackburn v Wigan		£4.01	£5 Lay, Wigan@2.84			£4.01		£0.00	£382.97		£365.50	95.54%		£282.53
80	Dortmund v B Munich		£3.00	£3Draw@3.6			£3.00		£0.00	£385.97		£365.50	94.70%		£279.53
81	Juventus v Atalanta		£4.00	£2 Lay, Juventus@1.32		£2 Atalanta@15	£4.00		£0.00	389.97		365.50			£275.53
82	Tottenham v Fulham		£2.00	£2 Fulham@9.6			£2.00		£0.00
83	Sunderland v Man Utd		£8.00	£5 Lay,Man Utd@1.50		£3 Sunderland@7.8	£8.00		£0.00
84	West Brom v Arsenal		£7.00	£5 Lay,Arsenal@1.71		£2 West Brom@5.6	£7.00		£0.00
85	Wigan v Wolves		£9.00	£6 Lay,Wigan@1.62		£3 Wolves@6.8	£9.00		£0.00
86	Stoke v Bolton		£3.43	£7 Lay,Bolton@2.94			£7.00		£10.43
87	Man City v QPR		£9.00	£7 Lay,Man City@1.15		£2 QPR@23	£9.00		£0.00	£431.97		£375.93/color]	[color=crimson]87.03%		£243.96
88	Villarreal v Athletico Madrid		£6.55	£3 Athletico Madrid@3.3			£3.00		£9.55
89	Santander v Osasuna		£3.00	£3 Lay, Santander@1.63			£3.00		£0.00
90	Rayo Vallecano v Granada		£2.00	£2 Granada@5			£2.00		£0.00
91	Getafe v Zaragoza		£4.00	£4 Lay, Zaragoza@1.72			£4.00		£0.00	£443.97		£385.48	86.83%		£241.51
92	Lazio v Inter		£3.04	£4.99 Lay, Inter@2.56			£4.99		£8.03	£448.96		£393.51	87.65%		£244.55

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Bayern Munich	101.0		Napoli	95.0
Juventus	98.0		West Ham	83.0
Chelsea	96.0		Blackpool	82.0

.			Draw			.
2.74	West Ham		3.36	Blackpool		2.97
1.90	Bayern Munich		3.96	Chelsea		4.52
2.45	Juventus		3.41	Napoli		3.34

Not followed Championship too close but from what i've seen not much between those teams

£3 (Liabilty) Lay, West Ham@1.97 & £3 Blackpool@4.1
£2 Chelsea@5.1 (unmatched)
£3 Napoli@4.1 (unmatched)

West Ham   Draw   Blackpool
2.11       3.84   3.78

that's what i got for west ham game

Your odds make more sense based on the table tbh ( West Ham 11pts better,GD 13 better)

I'm really going on what i've seen of these teams (which ain't much) West Ham vs Birmingham & Reading sticks in my mind, wheras Blackpool seem like they've not missed Adam.

I think both of these are much the same level as last year and would have both gone to the last day as far as relegation concerned.

West Ham i think are vulnerable to a team that has a go and creates an open game, as i feel that disrupts Sam's rather rigid approach to tactics .Blackpool always have a go.

The evidence that i rather underate Juventus is mounting on this thread as i think i've lost more opposing them than any other team (cept maybe City)

Your odds suggest a lay of Napoli and it's hard to argue laying 4 ish vs a team that has almost completed an unbeaten season in all comps (though they lost the 2nd leg v Milan 1-2 at 90mins, then 2-2 aet)

Again i just don't get the impression from seeing them that they are that much better than Napoli, so i'm going against the stats.

might aswell put my CL Final too.

Bayern - 1.83
Draw - 4.25
Chelsea - 4.61

based on Bayern being in their home landand Chelsea missing a lot of players.
probabilities come out as:

Bayern 54.8%
Draw 23.5%
Chelsea 21.7%

sorry spammed up your thread... re-post your ratings/prices for the events again if you want

no probs Dimebar, intersting to see other views

	|Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
87	Man City v QPR		£9.00	£7 Lay,Man City@1.15		£2 QPR@23	£9.00		£0.00	£431.97		£375.93	87.03%		£243.96
88	Villarreal v Athletico Madrid		£6.55	£3 Athletico Madrid@3.3			£3.00		£9.55
89	Santander v Osasuna		£3.00	£3 Lay, Santander@1.63			£3.00		£0.00
90	Rayo Vallecano v Granada		£2.00	£2 Granada@5			£2.00		£0.00
91	Getafe v Zaragoza		£4.00	£4 Lay, Zaragoza@1.72			£4.00		£0.00	£443.97		£385.48	86.83%		£241.51
92	Lazio v Inter		£3.04	£4.99 Lay, Inter@2.56			£4.99		£8.03	£448.96		£393.51	87.65%		£244.55
93	Blackpool v West Ham		£6.00	£3 Lay,West Ham@1.97		£3 Blackpool@4.1	£6.00		£0.00	£454.96		£393.51	86.49%		£238.55
94	B Munich v Chelsea		£2.00	£2 Chelsea@5.1			£2.00		£0.00	£456.96		£393.51	86.11%		£236.55
95	Juventus v Napoli		£8.83	£3 Napoli@4.1			£3.00		£11.83	£459.96		£405.34	88.13%		£245.38

Spanish Cup Final, my odds

.			Draw			.
1.53	Barcelona		4.7	Athletic Bilbao		7.45

£4.04 (liabilty) Lay, Barcelona@1.32
£2 Athletic Bilbao@9.8

Tobermory, things not working out for you it seems.
Any observations ?

	Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk.		Tot.Ret.	ROI		Bank	Com.Tot.
90	Rayo Vallecano v Granada		£2.00	£2 Granada@5			£2.00		£0.00
91	Getafe v Zaragoza		£4.00	£4 Lay, Zaragoza@1.72			£4.00		£0.00	£443.97		£385.48	86.83%		£241.51	£11.44
92	Lazio v Inter		£3.04	£4.99 Lay, Inter@2.56			£4.99		£8.03	£448.96		£393.51	87.65%		£244.55	£11.60
93	West Ham v Blackpool		£6.00	£3 Lay, West Ham@1.97		£3 Blackpool@4.1	£6.00		£0.00	£454.96		£393.51	86.49%		£238.55	£11.60
94	B Munich v Chelsea		£2.00	£2 Chelsea@5.1			£2.00		£0.00	£456.96		£393.51	86.11%		£238.55	£11.60
95	Juventus v Napoli		£8.83	£3 Napoli@4.1			£3.00		£11.83	£459.96		£405.34	88.13%		£245.38	£12.07
96	Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao		£6.04	£4.04 Lay, Barcelona@1.32		£2 Athletic Bilbao@9.8	£6.04		£0.00	£466.00		£405.34	86.98%		£239.34	£12.07
97	Sunderland v Chelsea		£8.00	£4 Lay, Chelsea@1.64		£4 Sunderland@7.4	£8.00		£0.00
98	Southampton v Reading		£3.00	£3 Reading@4.5			£3.00		£0.00
99	Swansea v Norwich		£26.22	£6 Norwich@5.6			£6.00		£32.22	£483.00		£437.56	90.59%		£254.56	£13.45