your continued faith in Liverpool ,Tottenham and Wolves must be admired   

very consistent on the returns though

It will always be the case that some teams over achieve,
some under, and that seems to be the case with Liverpool,
although the market is now getting a bit impatient with
that team it seems. Tottenham were ALWAYS over achieving
and were IMO an accident waiting to happen and so it is
proving. Wolves, they are a better side than their results
definitely, and maybe McCarthy could have pulled them round
as he always showed faith in them. They were probably
doomed when McDermott changed his mind after agreeing a
deal. I can see where Tobermory is coming from regards
those three.

requested some bets for weekend, not much value in sight most games

£6 (Liablty) Lay , Swansea @1.56 & £3 Wolves@7.4
£3 (Liablty) Lay , West Brom@2.02
£3 Draw @3.65,  Wigan v Newcastle

been playing to a lower level for a while

Also Seville drop to 90.5 , Athletico Madrid up to 93.5

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
1.62	Espanyol		4.41	Sporting Gijon		6.40
2.02	Getafe		3.83	Mallorca		4.09
1.62	Levante		4.41	Granada		6.40
1.90	Real Sociedad		3.96	Racing Santander		4.52
2.50	Villarreal		3.48	Osasuna		3.20
1.39	Real Madrid		5.61	Sevilla		9.76
3.96	Real Zaragoza		3.79	Athletic Bilbao		2.07
2.43	Malaga		3.54	Valencia		3.27
3.27	Real Betis		3.54	Atletico Madrid		2.43
10.14	Rayo Vallecano		5.75	Barcelona		1.37

£2 Mallorca@4.5
£3 (Liabilty) Lay ,Sociedad@1.53 & £2 Santander@7.6
£6 Levante@1.93
£3 (Liabilty) Lay ,Villareal@1.81 & £2 Osasuna@5.3
£3 (Liabilty) Lay ,Real Madrid@1.27 & £2 Seville@13
£4 Athletic Bilbao@2.34

Unmatched..

£6 Barcelona@1.46
£3 Valencia@3.6

Barca not quite got to 1.46, seems a decent bet IMO, assumption seems to be they've given up the league and while they don't believe they can win i don't think they'd want to hand it to RM mathematically, and would prefer them to have to win it themselves . Certainly an inflated price, can't see them playing reserves til the league is finalised .

Barcelona heads will be down , i won't be touching them this weekend

	Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
24	Siena v Bologna		£4.00	£4 Lay ,The Draw@2.62			£4.00		£0.00	£121.00		£139.07	114.93%		£318.07
25	AC Milan v Genoa		£5.00	£3 Lay ,AC Milan@1.24		£2 Genoa @18	£5.00		£0.00
26	Cesena v Juventus		£7.00	£5 Lay ,Juventus@1.25		£2 Cesena @19.5	£7.00		£0.00	£133.00		£139.07	104.56%		£306.07
27	Real Madrid v B Munich		£8.00	£5 Lay ,Real Madrid@1.52		£3 B Munich @7.2	£8.00		£0.00	£141.00		£139.07	98.63%		£298.07
28	Everton v Fulham		£3.00	£3 Fulham@4.9			£3.00		£0.00
29	Sunderland v Bolton		£1.93	£5.99 Lay ,Bolton@3.95			£5.99		£7.92
30	Wigan v Newcastle		£3.00	£3 Draw@3.65			£3.00		£0.00
31	Swansea v Wolves		£7.33	£6 Lay ,Swansea@1.56		£3 Wolves @7.2	£9.00		£16.33	£161.99		£163.32	100.82%		£301.33
32	Sociedad v Santander		£5.00	£3 Lay ,Sociedad@1.53		£2 Santander @7.6	£5.00		£0.00
33	Getafe v Mallorca		£6.65	£2 Mallorca@4.5			£2.00		£8.65
34	Levante v Granada		£5.30	£6 Levante@1.93			£6.00		£11.30
35	Cagliari v Chievo		£4.00	£4 Chievo@4.7			£4.00		£0.00
36	Palermo v Catania		£2.00	£2 Catania3.9			£2.00		£0.00	£180.99		£183.27	101.26%		£302.28
37	Roma v Napoli		£2.26	£4 Lay ,Napoli@2.68			£4.00		£6.26	£184.99		£189.53	102.45%		£304.54
38	Villarreal v Osasuna		£1.61	£3 Lay ,Villarreal@1.81		£2 Osasuna @5.3	£5.00		£6.61	£189.99		£196.14	103.24%		£306.15

Lazio rating was dropped to 92.0

So..

£6 Bologna@2.88
£3 (Liabilty) Lay, Milan@1.66 & £2 Siena@6.6
£3.01 (Liabilty) Lay,Juventus@1.33 & £2 Novarra@13.5
£2 (Liabilty) Lay, Inter@1.24 & £2 Cesena@22
£5 Atalanta@2.94
£2 Parma@3.75

Malaga v Valencia  £3.00

rather

As in the OP , see how good my ratings are, wether they are identifying value prices. Adjust if not. Maybe start from scratch next season if they seem to be well out.

So need lots of bets and detailed records to analyze.

will you bet solely on price and not give a regard to what you think will be the result  Yes

Backing long odds/Laying short odds, long runs without a win are inevitable, but if it is value to lay them then you will still win in the end as the profits on the rare winners will be more than the total losses.

I think Cesena today were my biggest priced pick and they were 1-0 up 2nd half

Well i woudln't mind that .I'd have backed them 10 times because they were value on those particular days not because i was following Cesena .If they were the correct price in game 11 it would never occur to me to back them so it wouldn't matter to me.

Of course if overall i've layed the top teams 100 times v the bottom 6 and am well down , i'd have to consider that i should have a bigger gap in the ratings between top and bottom.

quin, you need to stop thinking ''who do think will win''etc, and try to
think about the pricing, then bet accordingly. This evening what price
ManC ? If you can look at it objectively and come up with prices, check
your prices against the market, and if there is a discrepancy bet accord-
ingly, otherwise no bet.

You will not be alright unless you think price,
get that right and everything else will fall
into place. GL. End of.

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
1.57	Atletico Madrid		4.55	Real Sociedad		6.90
1.33	Barcelona		6.23	Malaga		11.56
2.12	Mallorca		3.75	Rayo Vallecano		3.83
3.27	Real Zaragoza		3.54	Levante		2.43
1.79	Sevilla		4.10	Real Betis		5.08
4.09	Athletic Bilbao		3.83	Real Madrid		2.02
1.72	Valencia		4.19	Osasuna		5.51

£2 (Liablity) Lay,Atletico Madrid@1.38 & £2 Sociedad @10
£2 Vallecano@4.6
£2 (Liablity) Lay,Barcelona@1.20 &£2 Malaga@18
£2.99 (Liablity) Lay,Zaragoza@2.26 & £4 Levante@3.5
£3 Athletic Bilbao@6.4 & £4 (Liablity) Lay,Real Madrid
£3 (Liablity) Lay,Valencia@1.46 & £2 Osasuna@9

£3 (Liablity) Lay,AC Milan@1.26 &£2 Atalanta@14.5
£2 (Liablity) Lay,Juventus@1.18 & £2 Lecce@25
£2 Parma@4.1 & £3 (Liablity) Lay,Inter@2.08
£2 Cesena@6.4
£4 (Liablity) Lay,Genoa@1.78 & £2 Cagliari@5.8
£2 (Liablity) Lay,Fiorentina@1.47 &£2 Novara@9.2


£3 Draw, Chelsea v Newcastle@4.7
£3 Spurs@2.02

All those bets Unmatched

Good job, I'm loving this thread. I might join you next season if I can get a model up and running by then.

the last 4 columns in 58 should be blank

ty Ror, tough day today .Could have been worse as almost every bet started dreadfully, some late comebacks helped , though the only one with a good start,Novara, blew a 2-0 lead.

Yes that would be useful

On the account i am using for this i have 159 pts currently

Hey Tobers, can you use this system to price up the outright premier league odds, using the relevant remaining combinations, or are there still too many?

there are 81 possible combinations of results City&United could get, so a bit too many too work out that way from my ratings

Quickly though converted my ratings into points expectancies...

City 4.30
United 4.23

you will still have us a point behind whoever is 2nd worst team in the PL when we're midtable in the Champ next season

good luck anyhow