EPL prices look a bit difficult and overall only Newcastle looks
a little short (IMO) GL.

£3 Lay, Athletico Madrid@1.64 & £2 Espanyol@6.4
£3 Lay, Granada@2.38
£3 Athletic Bilbao @2.22
£3 Lay Malaga @2.42

None of those matched as yet

Layed United@1.40 , £2 liabilty
Moved the £2 Everton back to 11  .People not fancying United as usual for this up to now, no chance of getting the prices i wanted originally

Have £2 Wolves @15 And moved the City lay to 1.26 as 99% certain to be matched on that

gotta say, tobes, I'm not a huge fan of your ratings. but I'm second to none in my admiration for your ability to get a table to show up properly on here.

serious question,not a fish

cheers Viva

Scaredmoney,

Yes! But i only change by 0.5 . The Newcastle rating probably looks worse to most people . Back in October i noticed Newcastle & Villa were unbeaten and i started a thread asking how this was so .Concluded they had just had easy fixtures up til then and were both mediocre teams .I was more right than i knew with Villa but amazed by Newcastle . They had a bad run up til Xmas and i felt confirmed im my view of them, and only just started to slowly upgrade them . Still not convinced tbh . Everton were 4th in 2005 and i still wouldn't rate then anywhere near the  'Big 4' and the next season they were 17th with the same players (though i didn't drop my rating on them much, actually my Everton rating hasn't altered much since about 2003! though they've had good/bad runs they seem to return to the same level)_

Good to see someone have faith in their ratings but i cant agree in the slightest Sir....Liverpool showed their true rating again today....they are a poor team and i cant see them improving with Dalglish in charge.
Am i right in remembering your not a liverpool fan?

They cant keep being "unlucky" week after week can they.....the table dosnt lie Sir.

I could understand if this was say 10-15 games into the season, but 34/35 games in and you still don't think it's a true reflection

tobermory 23 Apr 12 00:40
Everton were 4th in 2005 and i still wouldn't rate then anywhere near the  'Big 4' and the next season they were 17th with the same players

No they weren't.

So they didn't miss Rooney much

Liverpool will have been outside the top 4 for 3 seasons now

Barcelona Rating been dropped to 108.5

My Prices

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
2.03	Aston Villa		3.59	Bolton		4.37

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
1.49	Barcelona		4.69	Chelsea		8.70
1.86	Real Madrid		4.01	Bayern Munich		4.69

£5 (Liablity) Lay Barcelona@1.25

£2 back Chelsea @13.5

£5.99 (Liablity) Lay Bolton@3.95

	Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk		Tot.Ret	ROI		£300.00 (Bank)
1	Liverpool v Everton		£8.89	£6 Liverpool @2.56			£6.00		£14.89	£6.00		£14.89	248.17%		£308.89
2	Norwich v Man City		£4.00	£4 Lay , Man City @1.55			£4.00		£0.00	£10.00		£14.89	148.9%		£315.08
3	Sunderland v Wolves		£10.19	£7 Lay, Sunderland @1.55		£2 Wolves @7.4	£9.00		£19.19	£19.00		£34.08	179.37%		£308.89
4	Man United v Aston Villa		£4.00	£4 Lay , Man United@1.21			£4.00		£0.00	£23.00		£34.08	148.17%		£311.08
5	Tottenham v Chelsea		£4.00	£4 Draw @3.6			£4.00		£0.00	£27.00		£34.08	126.22%		£307.08
6	Bayern Munich v Real Madrid		£5.00	£5 Draw @3.6			£5.00		£0.00	£32.00		£34.08	106.5%		£302.08
7	Chelsea v Barcelona		£5.21	£4 Lay , Barcelona @1.73			£4.00		£9.21	£36.00		£43.29	120.25%		£307.29
8	Athletico Madrid v Valencia		£2.00	£2 Valencia @4.1			£2.00		£0.00
9	Sporting Lisbon v Athletic Bilbao		£3.00	£3 Athletic Bilbao@2.80			£3.00		£0.00	£41.00		£43.29	105.59%		£302.29
10	Arsenal v Chelsea		£1.68	£4 Lay ,Arsenal@2.06		£2 Chelsea @4	£6.00		£7.68	£47.00		£50.97	108.44%		£303.97
11	Newcastle v Stoke		£9.00	£6 Lay ,Newcastle@1.70		£3 Stoke @6.4	£9.00		£0.00	£56.00		£50.97	91.02%		£294.97
12	Sporting Gijon v Rayo Vallecano		£3.00	£3 Lay ,Sporting Gijon@2.26			£3.00		£0.00	£59.00		£50.97	86.39%		£291.97
13	QPR v Tottenham		£7.00	£7 Tottenham@2.06			£7.00		£0.00	£66.00		£50.97	77.23%		£284.97
14	Barcelona v Real Madrid		£14.31	£4 Lay ,Barcelona@1.66		£2 Real Madrid @5.5	£6.00		£20.31	£72.00		£71.28	99%		£299.28
15	Seville v Levante		£4.44	£4 Lay ,Seville@1.60		£2 Levante @6.6	£6.00		£10.44	£78.00		£81.72	104.77%		£303.72
16	Granada v Getafe		£3.01	£3.01 Lay ,Granada@2.38			£3.01		£0.00	£81.01		£81.72	100.88%		£300.71
17	Man United v Everton		£2.85	£2 Lay ,Man United@1.40		£2 Everton @11	£4.00		£6.85	£85.01		£88.57	104.19%		£303.56
18	Wolves v Man City		£9.00	£7 Lay ,Man City@1.26		£2 Wolves @15	£9.00		£0.00	£94.01		£88.57	94.21%		£294.56
19	Aston Villa v Bolton		£5.99	£5.99 Lay ,Bolton@3.95			£5.99		£0.00
20	Barcelona v Chelsea		£17.10	£5 Lay ,Barcelona@1.25		£2 Chelsea @13	£7.00		£24.10	£107.00		£112.67	105.30%		£305.67

On that basis

£4 Napoli@2.40

Unmatched

£2 Novarra@5.8
£4 (Liablity)Lay Draw Palermo v Parma@2.94
£4 (Liablity)Lay Draw Siena v Bologna@2.62
£3 (Liablity)Lay Milan @1.24 £2 Genoa@17.5
£5 (Liablity)Lay Juventus@1.25 £2 Cesena@19.5

Also (unmatched)

£5 (Liablity) Lay Real Madrid@1.52 , £3 Bayern Munich@7.2

I think not China. To me it seems it is just the element of 'needing to win' that is causing such a short price.

Honestly think if 1st Leg had been 1-1 RM would be significantly higher.

1.52 is an appalling price.

Real rather

In a one off, neutral ground match between these two the betting
would be around 5/4 Real, 11/4 Bayern, 5/2 the draw, so to go from
5/4 to 8/15 because of home advantage is bit strong so other
factors are included. I agree that the present price is too short,
maybe around 4/6.

Tob, firstly Good thread, so much effort and that I admire you for it.

How often do you assess the ratings and make changes? I still cant figure out your liverpool rating.

ty Winner Winner .I change them every 2 games at most (for  England) . Everyone laughs at my Liverpool Rating (and you may all be right) though last couple of weeks the market has had them much the same odds

I never trade out of these bets Addrian . As all the stakes are small it is no big deal if any individual bet wins or loses. The only times i have ever traded out of bets is when i've staked too much to begin with, which is something i wouldn't do anymore .

Another issue is when would i gave greened up on the lays of Milan & Juve? Would have been nice on 78 mins with both 0-0, but how could i have known to wait til then Also if i was going to green up on those games i would have had to green up on a few others that went on to win, so who knows if the savings on those matches wouldn't have been cancelled out by lower profits on others.

Main reason i never do it is that i try to place only bets i calculate as value , and i am confident about this pre match, but would not be ar all sure what was value in play as this requires a lot of research and/or very quick thinking .

I've decided to stick with Match Odds to keep things simple as possible .