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Football Bets With Ratings & Pricing

tobermory

14 Apr 12 03:04

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Date Joined: 01 Mar 08

| Topic/replies: 63,367 | Blogger: tobermory's blog

Will do this with £300 til end of season . Max Stake is 3%, £9 per match

Purpose to test the ratings, which if accurate should identify value bets . So try and get as many bets on as possible, starting with England this weekend ,but will try some other leagues too.

Inaccurate ratings will lead to inaccurate odds compiling, poor value bets, and inevitable losses. By placing many bets will have enough data to adjust ratings as results suggest so should improve accuracy overtime.

Premier League Ratings

Team	Rating	Team	Rating
Man City	100.0	Aston Villa	85.5
Man United	99.5	Stoke	85.0
Tottenham	97.0	West Brom	84.5
Arsenal	96.5	Norwich	84.5
Chelsea	96.5	Swansea	84.0
Liverpool	96.0	Blackburn	83.0
Everton	88.0	QPR	83.0
Newcastle	87.5	Bolton	82.5
Fulham	86.0	Wigan	82.0
Sunderland	85.5	Wolves	81.5

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By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 03:06

This is the main table for converting the difference in ratings into odds

Home advantage is worth 4.5 pts

Diff.	Team A	Team B	Draw
0	2.90	2.90	3.20
0.5	2.84	2.94	3.24
1	2.76	2.99	3.28
1.5	2.67	3.07	3.32
2	2.59	3.17	3.34
2.5	2.52	3.25	3.37
3	2.45	3.34	3.41
3.5	2.38	3.43	3.44
4	2.32	3.52	3.48
4.5	2.26	3.64	3.52
5	2.19	3.78	3.57
5.5	2.13	3.92	3.60
6	2.08	4.06	3.63
6.5	2.04	4.21	3.66
7	2.00	4.34	3.70
7.5	1.95	4.50	3.73
8	1.92	4.67	3.77
8.5	1.88	4.87	3.81
9	1.85	5.07	3.85
9.5	1.81	5.29	3.88
10	1.78	5.53	3.92
10.5	1.74	5.78	3.96
11	1.71	6.02	4.00
11.5	1.69	6.25	4.05
12	1.66	6.50	4.10
12.5	1.64	6.75	4.16
13	1.61	7.00	4.22
13.5	1.59	7.28	4.28
14	1.57	7.58	4.35
14.5	1.55	7.86	4.43
15	1.53	8.15	4.52
15.5	1.51	8.42	4.60
16	1.49	8.70	4.69
16.5	1.47	8.97	4.80
17	1.45	9.26	4.90
17.5	1.44	9.57	5.01
18	1.42	9.90	5.13
18.5	1.40	10.31	5.25
19	1.39	10.75	5.38
19.5	1.37	11.24	5.51
20	1.36	11.76	5.65
20.5	1.34	12.35	5.80
21	1.33	12.99	5.95
21.5	1.31	13.69	6.12
22	1.30	14.50	6.29
22.5	1.28	15.38	6.47
23	1.27	16.40	6.87

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 03:14

in before Liverpool rating criticism

and Wolves are probably too high

By:

SUPER KEVIN DAVIES When: 14 Apr 12 03:26

8.5 points diff between liverpool and newcastle? Wolves within a half point of anybody???

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 03:28

i would love you to give me 1.88 on Sunnerland today

By:

SUPER KEVIN DAVIES When: 14 Apr 12 03:45

im a gonna get me a tobes bet account

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 03:50

I know the Liverpool rating is controversial

Wolves have been unlucky IMO .Smashed by Fulham and Man U but competitive in most other games IMO and the sending off was a joke the other night.

My Odds for Premier Lg Matches

.	Home	Draw	Away	.
6.02	Norwich	4	Man City	1.71
1.88	Sunderland	3.81	Wolves	4.87
2.13	Swansea	3.60	Blackburn	3.92
2.12	West Brom	3.52	QPR	4.06
1.40	Man United	5.25	Aston Villa	10.31
1.37	Arsenal	5.75	Wigan	10.14

My Odds for FA Cup Matches

.		Draw		.
2.03	Liverpool	3.59	Everton	4.36
2.76	Tottenham	3.28	Chelsea	2.99

Sunderland (1.54) v Wolves (7.2) is the best value match IMO . Sunderland have a few more quality players and a better manager obviously. But most of their team would not improve the Wolves side. There is not nearly that much between these teams.

City (1.56) much too short.

West Brom/QPR is priced up much as i have it so shan't bother with anything there. Swansea/Blackburn similar but i'll try and get a better price on the Away team.

Man United (1.24)/Villa(17) & Arsenal(1.29)/Wigan(13) i think good value to oppose the favs but as a long time til they play will ask for much better odds.

Liverpool a class above Everton . Chelsea/Spurs i agree with the market making Spurs narrow favs but the draw @3.45 a little big . Will request 3.55 though.

£4 Liablity Lay City @1.55 (Unmatched)
£7 Liabilty Lay Sunderland @1.55
£2 Back Wolves @7.4 (Unmatched)
£3 Back Blackburn@4.4 (Unmatched)
£4 Liabilty Lay Man United @1.21 (Unmatched)
£2 Back Aston Villa @22 (Unmatched)
£3 Liabilty Lay Arsenal @1.27 (Unmatched)
£2 Back Wigan @

£6 Back Liverpool @2.56 (Unmatched)
£4 Back Draw (Spurs v Chelsea) @3.55 (Unmatched)

By:

SUPER KEVIN DAVIES When: 14 Apr 12 03:51

Dont agree with some of your ratings but can appreciate the work that goes into it. Enjoy fresh approaches. GL mate. Used to enjoy your boxing competitions.

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 03:52

wd working out the table Aaronh

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 03:53

cheers SKD the latest one is still ongoing though not put anything up last 2 weeks as rubbish fights

By:

SUPER KEVIN DAVIES When: 14 Apr 12 03:55

oh is it..cool.. I always mean to have a look but I pretty much moved to twitter a year or so ago.. trying to use forum a bit more but hard given the quality of poster on here :/

Yeah terrible couple of weeks of fights really.

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 03:56

But most of their team would not improve the Wolves side. There is not nearly that much between these teams.

I wish you were correct on this lol

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 03:56

btw some of the games (Arsenal,Liverpool & West Brom) were priced up using other tables for Higher (Arsenal) or Lower (the other 2) goal expectancies

Couldn't post those tables just now as only have the % and not the actual odds they convert to

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 04:00

can't see anyone rushing to sign our players other than the 2 wingers and strikers if they are on the cheap, championship quality defence. maybe O'Hara but he is always injured

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 04:05

Also forgot to mention Liverpool were rated -1 for tommorow so 95 v 88, thiswasdue to Reina being out

I don't think there would be a rush to sign most of Sunderland's players either . Sessegnon of course, but then i am struggling realy

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 04:08

there's a difference between Sunderland's players going to a better team and improving the Wolves side

we have been embarrassed week after week

By:

viva el presidente! When: 14 Apr 12 08:45

please may I lay wolves at 4.87?

By:

marychain1 When: 14 Apr 12 09:49

Tobes, how do you rate the chances in Macc Town v Crewe today

By:

aaronh When: 14 Apr 12 13:59

Apr 14, 2012 -- 8:45AM, viva el presidente! wrote:

please may I lay wolves at 4.87?

i definitely wouldn't have Wolves as faves or joint faves against 11 sides in the league at home

By:

tobermory When: 14 Apr 12 20:22

They've lost a lot of close matches though Aaron . Up til just before McCarthy went i'd say almost all their games v those 11 could have gone either way, even the away games in a few cases. Connor seems a bit clueless but they have the same players as then.

Marychain, i don't really go below the top divisions for the ratings , would be good to do that but 10 times as much research would be involved and don't get to see those teams , so not getting the whole picture .

Had a look at the table and would give Crewe 7.5 superiority (-4.5 for home advantage), on a table for higher goals expectancy (as i know Crewe don't do defensive stuff) would be..

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
3.27	Macclesfield		3.54	Crewe		2.43

All Saturday's bets were matched except Blackburn pleasingly.

Nowhere near getting matched yet on the United/Arsenal games, markets not moving yet.

Realized i posted the wrong odds for Spurs/Chelsea, as gave Spurs 1 pt supremacy, but forgot i dropped them by 0.5 after loss to Norwich

So correct odds IMO

.	Home		Draw	Away		.
2.84	Tottenham		3.24	Chelsea		2.94

That makes the Draw even better value.

The unmatched £2 in Wigan is @15

By:

tobermory When: 15 Apr 12 17:23

United Lay Matched, Villa Back not

Chelsea/Spurs Draw matched

Nothing matched Arsenal game yet

By:

tobermory When: 17 Apr 12 14:57

Didn't get anything matched Arsenal match

Would have taken the available odds in the end - as they were prety good still - but wasn't here Monday and Sunday Night Arsenal had come down to 1.28 so thought may as well leave it and bets would be taken.

Never seen a Premier Lg TV market have so little movement in 3 days.

By:

tobermory When: 17 Apr 12 18:31

Adjustments to ratings this week

+ or - 0.5	Team	New Rating
	Man City	100.5
	Chelsea	97.0
	Swansea	84.5
	Wigan	82.5
	Aston Villa	85.0

By:

tobermory When: 17 Apr 12 18:56

Ratings for teams in Europe Comps

Barcelona	109.0
Real Madrid	104.5
Bayern Munich	100.0
Chelsea	97.0
Valencia	93.5
Athletic Bilbao	93.5
Athletico Madrid	92.5
Sporting Lisbon	86.0

My Prices

.	Home	Draw	Away	.
2.88	Bayern Munich	3.27	Real Madrid	2.88
4.50	Chelsea	3.73	Barcelona	1.95
2.43	Athletico Madrid	3.54	Valencia	3.27
3.34	Sporting Lisbon	3.41	Athletic Bilbao	2.45

The Table at the top was used for the Chelsea & Sporting matches . More goals likely in the other 2

All these bets currently unmatched

£5 Draw @3.6 BM v RM
£5 Liabilty lay Barcelona @1.69
£4 Liabilty lay Athletico Madrid @2.04 & £2 back Valencia @4.1
£5 back Athletic Bilbao @2.98

By:

Glossy When: 17 Apr 12 19:12

Sporting Lisbon are the equals of Fulham? Liverpool better than Bilbao and Atletico Madrid?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

By:

aaronh When: 17 Apr 12 19:19

gl tobes,

By:

tobermory When: 17 Apr 12 19:30

Draw bet matched

ty Aaaron

i'm more loyal to Liverpool than their fans

By:

tobermory When: 18 Apr 12 18:47

I'll lay Barca @1.73 , £4 liablty

By:

tobermory When: 19 Apr 12 00:46

Took the available 2.80 on Bilbao, just for £3

£2 Valencia back matched @4.1

Will leave the A Madrid lay there

By:

aaronh When: 19 Apr 12 01:52

are you in profit or not

i'm lazy

By:

tobermory When: 19 Apr 12 01:59

+£7

I will be posting the figures in detail regulary so no one has to trawl through and add stuff up

By:

loadedgimp When: 19 Apr 12 02:28

Good luck tobes, hope this works out for you buddy.
I think you need to include some other factors though, such as confidence in bets, likelihood of it winning and external factors. I will give some examples:

United fighting for the title, business end of season, against Villa who play Heskey up front (speaks for itself) really any price is a gift.
Chelsea cannot be rated below Tottenham given the teams, think about how many international starters each team has and revise the rating.
Home advantage counts for more in some games than others. In Champions League it is especially important because home teams need to keep a clean sheet and away teams will be playing to get an away goal/keep the aggregate score down, not to win as they have the 2nd leg.

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 01:12

	Match	P/L	Bet 1	Bet 2	Stake	Return	Tot.Stk	Tot.Ret	ROI	£300.00 [color=brown]Bank [/color]
1	Liverpool v Everton	£8.89	£6 Liverpool @2.56		£6.00	£14.89	£6.00	£14.89	248.17	£308.89
2	Norwich v Man City	£4.00	£4 Lay , Man City @1.55		£4.00	£0.00	£10.00	£14.89	148.9%	£315.08
3	Sunderland v Wolves	£10.19	£7 Lay, Sunderland @1.55	£2 Wolves @7.4	£9.00	£19.19	£19.00	£34.08	179.37%	£308.89
4	Man United v Aston Villa	£4.00	£4 Lay , Man United@1.21		£4.00	£0.00	£23.00	£34.08	148.17%	£311.08
5	Tottenham v Chelsea	£4.00	£4 Draw @3.6		£4.00	£0.00	£27.00	£34.08	126.22%	£307.08
6	Bayern Munich v Real Madrid	£5.00	£5 Draw @3.6		£5.00	£0.00	£32.00	£34.08	106.5%	£302.08
7	Chelsea v Barcelona	£5.21	£4 Lay , Barcelona @1.73		£4.00	£9.21	£36.00	£43.29	120.25%	£307.29
8	Athletico Madrid v Valencia	£2.00	£2 Valencia @4.1		£2.00	£0.00
9	Sporting Lisbon v Athletic Bilbao	£3.00	£3 Athletic Bilbao@2.80		£3.00	£0.00	£41.00	£43.29	105.59%	£302.29

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 01:13

	Match	P/L	Bet 1	Bet 2	Stake	Return	Tot.Stk	Tot.Ret	ROI	£300.00 Bank
1	Liverpool v Everton	£8.89	£6 Liverpool @2.56		£6.00	£14.89	£6.00	£14.89	248.17	£308.89
2	Norwich v Man City	£4.00	£4 Lay , Man City @1.55		£4.00	£0.00	£10.00	£14.89	148.9%	£315.08
3	Sunderland v Wolves	£10.19	£7 Lay, Sunderland @1.55	£2 Wolves @7.4	£9.00	£19.19	£19.00	£34.08	179.37%	£308.89
4	Man United v Aston Villa	£4.00	£4 Lay , Man United@1.21		£4.00	£0.00	£23.00	£34.08	148.17%	£311.08
5	Tottenham v Chelsea	£4.00	£4 Draw @3.6		£4.00	£0.00	£27.00	£34.08	126.22%	£307.08
6	Bayern Munich v Real Madrid	£5.00	£5 Draw @3.6		£5.00	£0.00	£32.00	£34.08	106.5%	£302.08
7	Chelsea v Barcelona	£5.21	£4 Lay , Barcelona @1.73		£4.00	£9.21	£36.00	£43.29	120.25%	£307.29
8	Athletico Madrid v Valencia	£2.00	£2 Valencia @4.1		£2.00	£0.00
9	Sporting Lisbon v Athletic Bilbao	£3.00	£3 Athletic Bilbao@2.80		£3.00	£0.00	£41.00	£43.29	105.59%	£302.29

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 01:18

Loaded , Wether i think a team is going to win i don't consider as i don't even have an opinion on that. Anything can win. United were not cerain to win, though you start to wonder when you see that pen awarded

Chelsea have better players (over their careers) than Spurs but Spurs have seemed to have better players lately in terms of how near their peak their (younger ) players are.

Don't know if home advantage is bigger in CL , worth looking into

By:

aaronh When: 21 Apr 12 01:27

is there any reason behind why some stakes are bigger than others

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 01:32

yeah, more value on some, bigger discrepancy between my odds and the available

By:

aaronh When: 21 Apr 12 01:39

thought that might be the case

presume City are the main lay for Sunday

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 02:03

oh yeah

My Premier Lg Prices Apr 21/22

.	Home	Draw	Away	.
2.32	Arsenal	3.48	Chelsea	3.52
2.36	Aston Villa	3.39	Sunderland	3.55
2.43	Blackburn	3.54	Norwich	3.27
2.52	Bolton	3.37	Swansea	3.25
1.92	Fulham	3.77	Wigan	4.67
2.03	Newcastle	3.59	Stoke	4.37
5.08	QPR	4.10	Tottenham	1.79
1.49	Man United	4.69	Everton	8.70
1.49	Liverpool	4.69	West Brom	8.70
7.86	Wolves	4.43	Man City	1.55

Villa/Fulham & Liverpool games market has it much the same as me so no bets there.

The other 7 all look appealing or potentially depending on what i can get matched .

Newcastle and City games the best IMO

£4 (liability) Lay Arsenal @2.06* & £2 Chelsea @4
£3 (liabilityi Lay Blackburn @2.08* & £2 Norwich @3.75*
£3 Swansea @3.65*
£6 (liability) Lay Newcastle@1.70 £3 Stoke@6.4*
£3 Tottenham @2.0* & £4 Tottenham @2.10*
£3 (liability) Lay Man United @1.32* & £2 Everton@13*
£7 (liability) Lay Man City @1.25* & £2 Wolves @15*

The asteriks denote unmatched bets

By:

tobermory When: 21 Apr 12 02:44

I'll have a go at the Spanish Lg too

Ratings

Team	Rating	Team	Rating
Barcelona	109.0	Getafe	87.5
Real Madrid	104.5	Real Betis	86.0
Athletic Bilbao	93.5	Villareal	86.0
Valencia	93.5	Mallorca	85.5
Athletico Madrid	93.0	Rayo Vallecano	85.0
Malaga	92.0	Real Sociedad	84.5
Levante	91.0	Granada	83.0
Seville	91.0	Real Zaragoza	83.0
Espanyol	90.0	Sporting Gijon	82.0
Osasuna	88.0	Racing Santander	81.0

Prices worked out from a slightly different table than in post 2

.	Home	Draw	Away	.
1.98	Mallorca	3.88	Real Zaragoza	4.23
2.65	Sporting Gijon	3.40	Rayo Vallecano	3.05
1.82	Barcelona	4.05	Real Madrid	4.87
2.24	Seville	3.66	Levante	3.56
2.88	Granada	3.27	Getafe	2.88
2.43	Real Sociedad	3.54	Villareal	3.27
4.52	Racing Santander	3.96	Athletic Bilbao	1.90
1.94	Athletico Madrid	3.92	Espanyol	4.37
1.64	Valencia	4.35	Real Betis	6.17
2.81	Osasuna	3.32	Malaga	2.92

Not too sure about the spanish ratings but here goes

£4 (liablity) Lay, Seville@1.60 & £2 Levante @6.6*
£3 (liablity) Lay, Gijon@2.26*
£4 (liablity) Lay, Barcelona@1.66* & £2 Real Madrid@5.5*

Will look at the sunday games tommorow