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LIVERPOOL 2.24 AND I KNOW THE REASON WHY
LIVERPOOL 2.24 AND I KNOW THE REASON WHY
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Replies: 206
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Green army is basically correct although I would say I have not seen many markets start at 120% and are often above 105% pre k.o. But then I dont use bookies much.
They also still do alot of data analysis and odds compiling. If they did not do that then they could not offer in play markets and be profitable. |
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songsforthedeaf, it's my opinion that's how good Liverpool are. I do not go along with your assessment, I believe several of their players are over-estimated. I think Liverpool are about the 8th best team in England.
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We all know the truth, Liverpool are still living off past glories, there are many punters who will blindly back them just because of the name. That's the reason they were favourites today - the name - Liverpool - the former giants who have won European Cups. The odds today had absolutely nothing to do with recent form.
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I backed them at home to Everton, they were great value. Liverpool -2.5 @9
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songs - the bookmakers use statisticians and actuarials for the in-plays - but with bf at the end of their finger tips the risk is pretty low - and unlike betfair their % pretty high
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Bookmaker prices tend to be very close to proportionate to the true probabilties of sporting events occuring, irrespective of what method they use.
Saying Liverpool were too short is sensible. Saying Newcastle should have been favourites is cloud cookoo land. I don't think you quite appreciate the gravity of what you're saying. |
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Sure, I must be insane for thinking the 6th best team in England should be favourites at home against the 8th best team. HOW IRRATIONAL OF ME!
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If this match was to be played again next week Liverpool would
probably start favourite despite todays result, not as short the 5/4 they went off at, perhaps 13/8 but they would be the jolly. I think there were special circumstances affecting todays market, hence the seemingly **** eyed betting. As it happened the home side got the breaks and it could easily have win for L'pool. |
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You'll be getting a loan out for a bet on Newcastle at 3.2 away to Swansea then? 14 points, league can't be wrong etc.
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no no no no - you're not paying attention, the bookmakers DO NOT set prices, this is not 1972, the market sets the price and the only test of whether the price was right or wrong (however you define that) is the result of the match, and by extension the league table
You are only saying the odds were "about right" cos your prejudical view - not backed up by any empirical evidence - was that they Liverpool are better than Newcastle - they just simply are not, and however many tea leaves you have read, or gut feeling you have,Newcastle were the favourites for that game today, they had a better chance of winning it by any true analytical test - the fact that the weight of money was for Liverpool can't change that, and look this is the crux, this is the reason why I do this, why I make money on this, cos now and again the odds are wrong. You've got to understand this mate, or in the long run you're never gonna win |
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why shouldn't Toon be jollies at home to that shower of mercenaries? The League doesn't lie generally and Newcastle should have at least gone off 6/4 each of 2 9/4 the draw but 11/5 forced many hands and punters backed them cos they thought the price wrong.Anybody backing Liverpool was and is just wrong.
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Liverpool only had one shot at goal, hardly unlucky.
You might be right that they would make Liverpool favourites again, but it would have nothing to do with football. That's all about history, Liverpool must beat Newcastle just because they are Liverpool, right? |
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Taking less than 6/4 Liverpool today next week or in a month in a rematch would be wrong.Just cos you fancy a team the price has to have some bearing on whether you bet.
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Rowan86, you've just been hoisted on your own petard. Going by YOUR logic, Newcastle should be favourites for the Swansea game. In fact going by the methods that you used to make Liverpool favourites today, then Newcastle should be odds on!
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and while Im in a philanthropical mood mr bean I'll read the swansea game for you, although newcastle are above swansea, swansea's home form (3 losses out of 15) v newcastle away (6 wins in 15) = around 3.4 - add in the geordies sound current form & provided the swans dont come back and beat spurs to up their confidence, well yep 3.2 newcastle is just about right (as defined by evidence not tea leaves)
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I am backing swansea large DnB, for what its worth. They will look far superior to Newcastle on the day
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Going by my logic, Newcastle are about the right price against Swansea. Why not just go by points difference and make Newcastle favourites again High Lander?
Betfair prices tend to be very close to representative of the true prices i.e. 1/decimal odds = probability of event occuring (approx.) |
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IF your prices and views were correct green army, you would be turning over £1m profit on football per season. I suspect this isn't the case.
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Personally I think Swansea v Newcastle will be a draw or an away win, but whatever the outcome, I would say the odds are right in that game.
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Great posts kenilworth and Rowan. Voices of reason.
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Rowan, the reason I wouldn't have Newcastle as favourites is because they are away from home against a decent side who have a good home record.
The reason I wouldn't have had Liverpool as favourites today is because they were away from home against a superior side with a good home record. |
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So you reckon Newcastle should be 2.0 at home to Liverpool?
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Thanks RMB. Your posts are sound too.
High Lander. What about your great criteria though? Points, league position and home/away. No one's ever thought of that before! You've got the footy market sussed haven't ya? lol |
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I'm just delighted that people like Rowan86, RMB, songsfordeaf and kenilworth exist...it means I can make easy money from them
what can I say, thank you for being rubbish at betting |
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Rowan86, I know value when I see it and when I do I go in hard
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I think it's a mistake to separate home from away form, so its's a straight
comparison between two over achieving sides but 14 points between them. I rate Newcastle ahead of Swansea, but home advantage making Swans favourite. Home advantage is IMO the same for all sides, so I think the early betting about right.(6/4, 9/4, 5/2) |
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I don't agree that Newcastle are overachievers, they have some very good players, I think they really are that good. I just hope they can hold on to them in the summer.
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Highlander,
Personally I think Swansea v Newcastle will be a draw or an away win[/b] Highlander, an elementary mistake. You shouldn't be thinking what the result will be, as no one can tell the future. You should be deciding if the betting is right or wrong. |
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Well RMB my stop loss (risk) is low, (5%) so by adopting an empirical based approach to trading on football markets (v the tea leaf approach) a million will take a little while - but it means I dont have to work for a living any more - unless you call this working - I am one of the 5% that makes money betting, and it is evident to see why 95% dont
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Highlander, you are unable to give an objective view on Newcastle matches it seems.
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Kenilworth must have difficulty reading, because I also said this about the Swansea Newcastle match, "but whatever the outcome I think the odds are right"
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I sincerely hope that Kenilworth, RMB, Rowan86 and songsfordeaf keep betting, please don't ever stop
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I find the back-slapping of these fools hilarious.
You were wrong, before the game you were told that by many of us on here, and you lose and still maintain you are/were correct. Stats like Liverpool losing 5/6 league games, and playing away, and playing a team in decent form, apparently don't matter. |
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hey kenilworth, are you a lootown fan ? if so my condolences, of your 2 above points, the first is wrongly dismissive, correctly weighted significance of home / away form is v important eg man city, you just have to decide for which team it carries greater signifcance - re your 2nd one, almost perceptive, except that you have to analyze the game for the likely outcome of the event before you can evaluate the price
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Highlander,if the betting is correct, how can you have a bet on the match ?
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kenilworth, who says I will have a bet on the match?
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How have we lost Shab? We all said Liverpool were too short.
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The odds were wrong , simple
Spurs at 1.4 were wrong aswell , more akin to real and barca odds at home |
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No one, but you are someone who 'thinks' certain things will happen,
so I'm presuming you will bet accordingly. Perhaps I was wrong to presume that.  I think you will probably lay Swansea. |
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I can confirm that I will NOT be laying Swansea at 2.54
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