LIVERPOOL 2.24 AND I KNOW THE REASON WHY

you're spouting bullocks rowan mate - when any side has lost 5 out of last 6 and has 19 points away compared with the home side's 29 you just can't justify them at less than 3 - let alone favourites - let alone 2.18 ! - no matter what you've read in your tea leaves

ahahahah green army. I'm not spouting sh*t. Newcastle have played fairly sh*te recently. West Brom away was a really big turnaround as was Wigan beating Liverpool. I can see exactly where that price came from, although it was marginally big.

Rowan, there is no way Liverpool should have been favourites for this game. Liverpool are away from home against a side that are 8 points above them in the league. Liverpool's away form has been poor while Newcastle's home form is good. The odds at the beginning of the game made no sense whatsoever.

I'm going to put your blindness to this down to your bias towards Liverpool. In future you should refrain from betting on Liverpool.

ha ha ha ha

pmsl

I hope your delusion is restricted to the scouts gits rowan or you must be a v poor punter - hey perhaps you should go back to being mr bean

2.20 was an amazing price to lay

rowan doesnt deserve abuse

he had an opinion on the game, like everyone else

I thought liverpool were very short pre-game but could have been 0-2 up after 15 mins and in fairness looked a 2.26 side in first 20 mins

Not sure anyone has right to say hes a poor punter or have a dig

I'm sure Rowan makes more than all of them. You'll get decimated long term if you're making Liverpool 3.0+ shots in this fixture.  The fact they are 2-0 down makes no difference, any result is possible in football, another day it could be 0-2 and I'm sure Rowan wouldn't be on here gloating.

No noe deserves abuse for any opinion give , but 3.5 newcastle was a mighty rick , no certainties but given the performance against WBA and home advantage it was a gift

Of course Liverpool should have been favourites for the game. You actually think the odds were that wrong that Newcastle should have been wrong?! You're insane. I'd say Newcastle were a little bit big, but not by as much as you're making out! I'm a Newcastle fan that has an irrational hatred of Liverpool by the way, but that's irrelevant.

All Rowans said is he thought Liverpool were too short, but not to the extent people were making out. The most accurate statement on this thread. If people had Liverpool at 3.5+ then they'd be millionaires on here. The only way to make money on football is to find out of kilter prices, and hit them hard, but you'll be hard pushed to find any 2.2 shots which are 3.5 EVER, maybe on Special markets.

Of course Liverpool should have been favourites for the game. You actually think the odds were that wrong that Newcastle should have been favourites?! *

You know there is something up when it is only Liverpool fans defending the price. It may have been a decent price if you're a fan, otherwise it was clear.

Liverpool could come back and win 3-2 and that would still be the case.

You're not a Liverpool fan?!

In that case I suggest you stop gambling forever!

Liverpool should have been 2.5 I would say, all things considered. Look at the way they dominated the first half, consistently created more chances than Newcastle. They are a few pieces short of a top quality team. It should have been Caroll 0-1 but he makes a terrible decision to dive. If this fixture was replayed tomorrow and Liverpool were 3.0, I would back them. As it stands they were 2.2 and I layed.

Apr 1, 2012 -- 3:05PM, songsforthedeaf wrote:

Liverpool should have been 2.5 I would say, all things considered. Look at the way they dominated the first half, consistently created more chances than Newcastle. They are a few pieces short of a top quality team. It should have been Caroll 0-1 but he makes a terrible decision to dive. If this fixture was replayed tomorrow and Liverpool were 3.0, I would back them. As it stands they were 2.2 and I layed.

Spot on. Totally agree.

what on earth are you are on about steptoe this is a betting forum not a knitting circle  - and you're doing the same, oh if I had picked the right numbers I would have won the lottery last night, well you didn't - the facts both pre and as borne out said Newcastle were favourites to win this & just cos some guy in Bangkok has £1 million to waste on his favourite red boys doesn't change a thing - except for the price - ta mate

Newcastle should have been favourites HTH

I think Newcastles defensive team news was the reason for their price to contract 20 ticks, and the further 10 ticks was IR when they were dominating early on.

I Didnt lay or back it fwiw. All im saying is to throw rubbish around like give up betting is tiresome

Acting all billy big bollocks

The value was obviously to lay Liverpool, and I am talking huge value! Unless you are a dyed in the wool Liverpool fan, you know it was!

no-one's acting billy bb steptoe or suggesting mr bean gives up betting, but if you had applied his analysis on price all season you would be v out of pocket - the league table does not lie - and btw further hahaha

Liverpool have had one shot on target today and some of you delusionals think they dominated

ok green army fair enough

pumphol.     01 Apr 12 13:31 
Newcastle 2-0 @25 seems much to big imo


A pleasant start to the day

great work mate

What price would man u or man city been going to newcastle , not much less than liverpool were today i rekon , puts the liverpool price into perspective , innconsistent form , no adam , and going away to a tough ground against a team playing with confidence .

was a big rick

Cheers SY

25s, rubbish, I got 1.5 ... great tip bud, enjoy the winnings.

lol thanks

The league table ALWAYS tell some kind of lie. Liverpool were rightfully favourites to win the match. Every single bookmaker in the country will have had Liverpool favourites, but hey what do huge businesses with billion-pound annual turnovers known?

Football prices are rarely that far wrong, because the sport is so heavily analysed. I think you're all overreacting a bit because for once we've seen a value footy price.

tells* know*

really mr bean that is utter utter garbage  - do you realise liverpool would be bottom yes bottom of the league if it started on jan 1st - now I am suggesting you take up another hobby, no-one wants to see beggars on the street

Yes green army. Every bookmaker in the country had it wrong. :D

this buisness earns its money on cutting the prices hugely on both sides.

and they r wrong many times with setting favs or odd, but they cut prices so much that they overall gets in profits

Bookmakers make money by making bets at good prices. Simple as that. Millions of pounds go against what you're saying. You can never be certain, because essentially, it's subjective, but I'll go with the millions of pounds vs your opinions.

Newcastle are now 11 points ahead of Liverpool and will definitely finish well above them when the season is over. Now tell me, do you still think that Newcastle are overachieving and in a false position?

Cheers for this thread DaveyBoyMoyes, you might have got the reasons wrong but I backed a red card at 5's for insurance on laying Liverpool.  You the man!

To say that any PL referee is biased is ludicrous.

Another value Liverpool lay landed

11 points is misleading, so yes, they are overachieving in a sense. Newcastle have now had convincing wins against West Brom and Liverpool. Liverpool have lost at home to Wigan and been outplayed by Newcastle, so we have more evidence now, but Liverpool are still probably a better team. If we scheduled this fixture for next weekend, Liverpool would still probably be favourites with every bookmaker. Would be considerably tighter though.

I'm trying to understand why you think Liverpool are a better team than Newcastle. There is not one shred of evidence to support your opinion.

what about 3-0 against manu

Ok price was wrong.  Why you ask?
Liverpool heavy favourites away from home to team who so far have won more points in the season.  Liverpool recently lost a game when playing away from being 2-0 up to losing 3-2 in the last 10 minutes.
Also take into account Andy Carroll 3 goals all season vs Demba Ba in top 5 goal scorers this season.  Also Suarez vs Cisse, Cisse wins for me.  FGS odds reflected this, and as I said before my main bet was laying Liverpool HT due to their away record at half-time.  In 15 games they scored and let in 6 goals.  3.05 was a ridiculous price especially when we can trade on here.

Wouldn't have done much trading if that early cross shot had gone in,
rather than out, via Krull and the crossbar.

High Lander. On results alone, Newcastle would have been 1.5. It's very different now. Newcastle have just beaten Liverpool convincingly. That gives us considerably more evidence, which would be factored in significantly if the sides met again next weekend. Prior to this game, Newcastle had had one convincing performance away to West Brom and Liverpool had a horrible couple of games, but they have a much better team on paper and are capable of playing a lot better than Newcastle. Most of Newcastle's recent performances have been very shabby. That's why every bookmaker had Liverpool favourites. The prices are rarely that wrong on the footy. I agree it was marginally wrong today though.

Unless they had equalised as stats would suggest
In 15 games they scored and let in 6 goals.

And they have led 3 times out of 15 away games by HT.

firstly mr bean you clearly have absolutely no idea how a bookmaker sets a price - you suggest they are taking some sort of a view about the outcome of a football match. That is so old fashioned and naive...look I'll try and keep this as simple and brief as possible to give you a little insight into the workings of the market.

30 years ago bookmakers set prices, they had too, information was restricted and in the first instance they wouldn't even know what price Joe up the road was offering, and their skill dictated their profits. Todays bookmakers, ie the multi million pound businesses need no skill whatsoever in analysing football because they they do not need to set markets, well only within in very narrow and risk free parameters. ie they can open this match's market on the previous monday with a 120% overound and wait for the market to shape itself to a 105% overound - no risk, no hassle, 5% profit, scare off any big punters & bf always on hand to adjust the margins

understand ? - no bookmakers get it right or wrong anymore - they dont need to - the market it shape's itself - in this instance probably from ill-informed millions from thailand or india

Liverpool are doing whats known as 'underperforming' HIghlander, which means they are regularly putting in performances below what they are capable of.

If you think Newcastle are as good as the table suggests, I suggest you lay Swansea when they play Newcastle at home. Swansea are a huge 14 points behind Newcastle but are favourites to win the match. Good luck with your bet.

Well, you can call me crazy but I go by results when I assess a team's capabilities. And if Team A is 8 points clear of team B and sitting high in the most competitive league in the world, plus Team A have home advantage, then I am going to make Team A the favourites every single time.

That is far too simplistic High Lander. To get an edge, you need to use the results and scrutinise the performances. Any idiot can use the results alone.

Green army is basically correct although I would say I have not seen many markets start at 120% and are often above 105% pre k.o. But then I dont use bookies much.

They also still do alot of data analysis and odds compiling. If they did not do that then they could not offer in play markets and be profitable.

songsforthedeaf, it's my opinion that's how good Liverpool are. I do not go along with your assessment, I believe several of their players are over-estimated. I think Liverpool are about the 8th best team in England.

We all know the truth, Liverpool are still living off past glories, there are many punters who will blindly back them just because of the name. That's the reason they were favourites today - the name - Liverpool - the former giants who have won European Cups. The odds today had absolutely nothing to do with recent form.

I backed them at home to Everton, they were great value. Liverpool -2.5 @9

songs - the bookmakers use statisticians and actuarials for the in-plays - but with bf at the end of their finger tips the risk is pretty low - and unlike betfair their % pretty high

Bookmaker prices tend to be very close to proportionate to the true probabilties of sporting events occuring, irrespective of what method they use.

Saying Liverpool were too short is sensible. Saying Newcastle should have been favourites is cloud cookoo land. I don't think you quite appreciate the gravity of what you're saying.

Sure, I must be insane for thinking the 6th best team in England should be favourites at home against the 8th best team. HOW IRRATIONAL OF ME!

If this match was to be played again next week Liverpool would
probably start favourite despite todays result, not as short
the 5/4 they went off at, perhaps 13/8 but they would be the
jolly. I think there were special circumstances affecting todays
market, hence the seemingly **** eyed betting. As it happened
the home side got the breaks and it could easily have win for
L'pool.

You'll be getting a loan out for a bet on Newcastle at 3.2 away to Swansea then? 14 points, league can't be wrong etc.

no no no no - you're not paying attention, the bookmakers DO NOT set prices, this is not 1972, the market sets the price and the only test of whether the price was right or wrong (however you define that) is the result of the match, and by extension the league table

You are only saying the odds were "about right" cos your prejudical view - not backed up by any empirical evidence - was that they Liverpool are better than Newcastle - they just simply are not, and however many tea leaves you have read, or gut feeling you have,Newcastle were the favourites for that game today, they had a better chance of winning it by any true analytical test - the fact that the weight of money was for Liverpool can't change that, and look this is the crux, this is the reason why I do this, why I make money on this, cos now and again the odds are wrong. You've got to understand this mate, or in the long run you're never gonna win

why shouldn't Toon be jollies at home to that shower of mercenaries? The League doesn't lie generally and Newcastle should have at least gone off 6/4 each of 2 9/4 the draw but 11/5 forced many hands and punters backed them cos they thought the price wrong.Anybody backing Liverpool was and is just wrong.

Liverpool only had one shot at goal, hardly unlucky.

You might be right that they would make Liverpool favourites again, but it would have nothing to do with football. That's all about history, Liverpool must beat Newcastle just because they are Liverpool, right?

Taking less than 6/4 Liverpool today next week or in a month in a rematch would be wrong.Just cos you fancy a team the price has to have some bearing on whether you bet.

Rowan86, you've just been hoisted on your own petard. Going by YOUR logic, Newcastle should be favourites for the Swansea game. In fact going by the methods that you used to make Liverpool favourites today, then Newcastle should be odds on!

and while Im in a philanthropical mood mr bean I'll read the swansea game for you, although newcastle are above swansea, swansea's home form (3 losses out of 15) v newcastle away (6 wins in 15) = around 3.4 - add in the geordies sound current form & provided the swans dont come back and beat spurs to up their confidence, well yep 3.2 newcastle is just about right (as defined by evidence not tea leaves)

I am backing swansea large DnB, for what its worth. They will look far superior to Newcastle on the day

Going by my logic, Newcastle are about the right price against Swansea. Why not just go by points difference and make Newcastle favourites again High Lander?


Betfair prices tend to be very close to representative of the true prices i.e. 1/decimal odds = probability of event occuring (approx.)

IF your prices and views were correct green army, you would be turning over £1m profit on football per season. I suspect this isn't the case.

Personally I think Swansea v Newcastle will be a draw or an away win, but whatever the outcome, I would say the odds are right in that game.

Great posts kenilworth and Rowan. Voices of reason.

Rowan, the reason I wouldn't have Newcastle as favourites is because they are away from home against a decent side who have a good home record.

The reason I wouldn't have had Liverpool as favourites today is because they were away from home against a superior side with a good home record.

So you reckon Newcastle should be 2.0 at home to Liverpool?

Thanks RMB. Your posts are sound too.

High Lander. What about your great criteria though? Points, league position and home/away. No one's ever thought of that before! You've got the footy market sussed haven't ya? lol

I'm just delighted that people like Rowan86, RMB, songsfordeaf and kenilworth exist...it means I can make easy money from them what can I say, thank you for being rubbish at betting

Rowan86, I know value when I see it and when I do I go in hard

I think it's a mistake to separate home from away form, so its's a straight
comparison between two over achieving sides but 14 points between them. I rate
Newcastle ahead of Swansea, but home advantage making Swans favourite. Home
advantage is IMO the same for all sides, so I think the early betting about
right.(6/4, 9/4, 5/2)

I don't agree that Newcastle are overachievers, they have some very good players, I think they really are that good. I just hope they can hold on to them in the summer.

Highlander,
Personally I think Swansea v Newcastle will be a draw or an away win[/b]

Highlander, an elementary mistake. You shouldn't be thinking what the
result will be, as no one can tell the future. You should be deciding
if the betting is right or wrong.

Well RMB my stop loss (risk) is low, (5%) so by adopting an empirical based approach to trading on football markets (v the tea leaf approach) a million will take a little while - but it means I dont have to work for a living any more - unless you call this working - I am one of the 5% that makes money betting, and it is evident to see why 95% dont

Highlander, you are unable to give an objective view on Newcastle matches it seems.

Kenilworth must have difficulty reading, because I also said this about the Swansea Newcastle match, "but whatever the outcome I think the odds are right"

I sincerely hope that Kenilworth, RMB, Rowan86 and songsfordeaf keep betting, please don't ever stop

I find the back-slapping of these fools hilarious.

You were wrong, before the game you were told that by many of us on here, and you lose and still maintain you are/were correct.

Stats like Liverpool losing 5/6 league games, and playing away, and playing a team in decent form, apparently don't matter.

hey kenilworth, are you a lootown fan ? if so my condolences, of your 2 above points, the first is wrongly dismissive, correctly weighted significance of home / away form is v important eg man city, you just have to decide for which team it carries greater signifcance - re your 2nd one, almost perceptive, except that you have to analyze the game for the likely outcome of the event before you can evaluate the price

Highlander,if the betting is correct, how can you have a bet on the match ?

kenilworth, who says I will have a bet on the match?

How have we lost Shab? We all said Liverpool were too short.

The odds were wrong , simple

Spurs at 1.4 were wrong aswell , more akin to real and barca odds at home

No one, but you are someone who 'thinks' certain things will happen,
so I'm presuming you will bet accordingly. Perhaps I was wrong to
presume that. I think you will probably lay Swansea.

I can confirm that I will NOT be laying Swansea at 2.54

And of course we still maintain that we were right Shab. It's a bit naive to change it just because of one result. Do you think statisticians base their analyses on one-observation samples?

Howver, you are right about your overall point. What anyone thinks will happen has nothing to do with it..it's all about the odds. So maybe kenilworth isn't such a bad gambler after all.

Are you a Liverpool fan kenilworth?

I didn't mention any price.

I thought most people on here know that I have no preference
for any side in the PL. My team languish in Div1.

West Ham?

Some people have a blind spot about Liverpool, they just cant get their heads around the fact that they aren't very good anymore. maybe you are one of those Ken, maybe you overestimate their ability.

West Ham ? I didn't realise they were in Div1.

Regards L'pool, where on earth did you get that idea ?
I just hope your punting is better than your guesses at
who favours who.

lol. I spelt 'cuckoo' wrong. :(