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LIVERPOOL 2.24 AND I KNOW THE REASON WHY

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Replies: 206
By:
CJ70
When: 01 Apr 12 15:03
You know there is something up when it is only Liverpool fans defending the price. It may have been a decent price if you're a fan, otherwise it was clear.

Liverpool could come back and win 3-2 and that would still be the case.
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:04
You're not a Liverpool fan?! ShockedShockedShocked

In that case I suggest you stop gambling forever!
By:
songsforthedeaf
When: 01 Apr 12 15:05
Liverpool should have been 2.5 I would say, all things considered. Look at the way they dominated the first half, consistently created more chances than Newcastle. They are a few pieces short of a top quality team. It should have been Caroll 0-1 but he makes a terrible decision to dive. If this fixture was replayed tomorrow and Liverpool were 3.0, I would back them. As it stands they were 2.2 and I layed.
By:
RMB ©
When: 01 Apr 12 15:06

Apr 1, 2012 -- 3:05PM, songsforthedeaf wrote:


Liverpool should have been 2.5 I would say, all things considered. Look at the way they dominated the first half, consistently created more chances than Newcastle. They are a few pieces short of a top quality team. It should have been Caroll 0-1 but he makes a terrible decision to dive. If this fixture was replayed tomorrow and Liverpool were 3.0, I would back them. As it stands they were 2.2 and I layed.


Spot on. Totally agree.

By:
green army
When: 01 Apr 12 15:06
what on earth are you are on about steptoe this is a betting forum not a knitting circle  - and you're doing the same, oh if I had picked the right numbers I would have won the lottery last night, well you didn't - the facts both pre and as borne out said Newcastle were favourites to win this & just cos some guy in Bangkok has £1 million to waste on his favourite red boys doesn't change a thing - except for the price - ta mate
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:07
Newcastle should have been favourites HTH
By:
RMB ©
When: 01 Apr 12 15:07
I think Newcastles defensive team news was the reason for their price to contract 20 ticks, and the further 10 ticks was IR when they were dominating early on.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 01 Apr 12 15:07
I Didnt lay or back it fwiw. All im saying is to throw rubbish around like give up betting is tiresome

Acting all billy big bollocks
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:11
The value was obviously to lay Liverpool, and I am talking huge value! Unless you are a dyed in the wool Liverpool fan, you know it was!
By:
green army
When: 01 Apr 12 15:13
no-one's acting billy bb steptoe or suggesting mr bean gives up betting, but if you had applied his analysis on price all season you would be v out of pocket - the league table does not lie - and btw further hahaha
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:14
Liverpool have had one shot on target today and some of you delusionals think they dominated Laugh
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 01 Apr 12 15:18
ok green army fair enough
By:
pumphol.
When: 01 Apr 12 15:22
pumphol.     01 Apr 12 13:31 
Newcastle 2-0 @25 seems much to big imo


A pleasant start to the day Cool
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 01 Apr 12 15:23
great work mate Happy
By:
hello :-)
When: 01 Apr 12 15:23
What price would man u or man city been going to newcastle , not much less than liverpool were today i rekon , puts the liverpool price into perspective , innconsistent form , no adam , and going away to a tough ground against a team playing with confidence .

was a big rick
By:
pumphol.
When: 01 Apr 12 15:24
Cheers SY
By:
RMB ©
When: 01 Apr 12 15:24
25s, rubbish, I got 1.5 Laugh... great tip bud, enjoy the winnings.
By:
pumphol.
When: 01 Apr 12 15:26
lol Grin thanks
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:29
The league table ALWAYS tell some kind of lie. Liverpool were rightfully favourites to win the match. Every single bookmaker in the country will have had Liverpool favourites, but hey what do huge businesses with billion-pound annual turnovers known? Laugh

Football prices are rarely that far wrong, because the sport is so heavily analysed. I think you're all overreacting a bit because for once we've seen a value footy price.
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:32
tells* know*
By:
green army
When: 01 Apr 12 15:34
really mr bean that is utter utter garbage  - do you realise liverpool would be bottom yes bottom of the league if it started on jan 1st - now I am suggesting you take up another hobby, no-one wants to see beggars on the street
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:35
Yes green army. Every bookmaker in the country had it wrong. :D
By:
;[p
When: 01 Apr 12 15:35
this buisness earns its money on cutting the prices hugely on both sides.

and they r wrong many times with setting favs or odd, but they cut prices so much that they overall gets in profits
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:40
Bookmakers make money by making bets at good prices. Simple as that. Millions of pounds go against what you're saying. You can never be certain, because essentially, it's subjective, but I'll go with the millions of pounds vs your opinions.
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:41
Newcastle are now 11 points ahead of Liverpool and will definitely finish well above them when the season is over. Now tell me, do you still think that Newcastle are overachieving and in a false position?
By:
loadedgimp
When: 01 Apr 12 15:43
Cheers for this thread DaveyBoyMoyes, you might have got the reasons wrong but I backed a red card at 5's for insurance on laying Liverpool.  You the man!
By:
kenilworth
When: 01 Apr 12 15:45
To say that any PL referee is biased is ludicrous.
By:
hoops48
When: 01 Apr 12 15:45
Another value Liverpool lay landed
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:47
11 points is misleading, so yes, they are overachieving in a sense. Newcastle have now had convincing wins against West Brom and Liverpool. Liverpool have lost at home to Wigan and been outplayed by Newcastle, so we have more evidence now, but Liverpool are still probably a better team. If we scheduled this fixture for next weekend, Liverpool would still probably be favourites with every bookmaker. Would be considerably tighter though.
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 15:50
I'm trying to understand why you think Liverpool are a better team than Newcastle. There is not one shred of evidence to support your opinion.
By:
;[p
When: 01 Apr 12 15:51
what about 3-0 against manu
By:
loadedgimp
When: 01 Apr 12 15:51
Ok price was wrong.  Why you ask?
Liverpool heavy favourites away from home to team who so far have won more points in the season.  Liverpool recently lost a game when playing away from being 2-0 up to losing 3-2 in the last 10 minutes.
Also take into account Andy Carroll 3 goals all season vs Demba Ba in top 5 goal scorers this season.  Also Suarez vs Cisse, Cisse wins for me.  FGS odds reflected this, and as I said before my main bet was laying Liverpool HT due to their away record at half-time.  In 15 games they scored and let in 6 goals.  3.05 was a ridiculous price especially when we can trade on here.
By:
kenilworth
When: 01 Apr 12 15:54
Wouldn't have done much trading if that early cross shot had gone in,
rather than out, via Krull and the crossbar.
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 15:56
High Lander. On results alone, Newcastle would have been 1.5. It's very different now. Newcastle have just beaten Liverpool convincingly. That gives us considerably more evidence, which would be factored in significantly if the sides met again next weekend. Prior to this game, Newcastle had had one convincing performance away to West Brom and Liverpool had a horrible couple of games, but they have a much better team on paper and are capable of playing a lot better than Newcastle. Most of Newcastle's recent performances have been very shabby. That's why every bookmaker had Liverpool favourites. The prices are rarely that wrong on the footy. I agree it was marginally wrong today though.
By:
loadedgimp
When: 01 Apr 12 15:57
Unless they had equalised as stats would suggest
In 15 games they scored and let in 6 goals.
By:
loadedgimp
When: 01 Apr 12 15:58
And they have led 3 times out of 15 away games by HT.
By:
green army
When: 01 Apr 12 16:02
firstly mr bean you clearly have absolutely no idea how a bookmaker sets a price - you suggest they are taking some sort of a view about the outcome of a football match. That is so old fashioned and naive...look I'll try and keep this as simple and brief as possible to give you a little insight into the workings of the market.

30 years ago bookmakers set prices, they had too, information was restricted and in the first instance they wouldn't even know what price Joe up the road was offering, and their skill dictated their profits. Todays bookmakers, ie the multi million pound businesses need no skill whatsoever in analysing football because they they do not need to set markets, well only within in very narrow and risk free parameters. ie they can open this match's market on the previous monday with a 120% overound and wait for the market to shape itself to a 105% overound - no risk, no hassle, 5% profit, scare off any big punters & bf always on hand to adjust the margins

understand ? - no bookmakers get it right or wrong anymore - they dont need to - the market it shape's itself - in this instance probably from ill-informed millions from thailand or india
By:
songsforthedeaf
When: 01 Apr 12 16:03
Liverpool are doing whats known as 'underperforming' HIghlander, which means they are regularly putting in performances below what they are capable of.

If you think Newcastle are as good as the table suggests, I suggest you lay Swansea when they play Newcastle at home. Swansea are a huge 14 points behind Newcastle but are favourites to win the match. Good luck with your bet.
By:
high_lander
When: 01 Apr 12 16:04
Well, you can call me crazy but I go by results when I assess a team's capabilities. And if Team A is 8 points clear of team B and sitting high in the most competitive league in the world, plus Team A have home advantage, then I am going to make Team A the favourites every single time.
By:
Rowan86
When: 01 Apr 12 16:07
That is far too simplistic High Lander. To get an edge, you need to use the results and scrutinise the performances. Any idiot can use the results alone.
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