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Ashes - 4th Test, Old Trafford - Manchester - Sep 04-Sep08

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By:
tomtimtum
When: 07 Sep 19 15:59

Sep 7, 2019 -- 3:59PM, Charlie wrote:


Just laid England at 12 because I don't think they win they game no matter what but must admit I don't think it was a good bet now its done.


2 quick wickets and they'll be 6 and your gonads will be in the vice!

By:
Hamlin
When: 07 Sep 19 16:00
Smiths wicket is the one. Market would react heavily
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:00
My gonads are used to it!
By:
gibmark
When: 07 Sep 19 16:01

Sep 7, 2019 -- 4:00PM, Hamlin wrote:


Smiths wicket is the one. Market would react heavily


cant argue with that

By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:01
In fact often surprised I've still got two of 'em.
By:
Hamlin
When: 07 Sep 19 16:01
Is it looking dark yet?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 07 Sep 19 16:01
I missed that Ellis as I got hooked on the tv not radio!

It is more than just numbers Libertine. If Aus do get skittled one might opine that the pitch is not easy to bat on. The innings scores are coming down consecutively. At Headingley the scores got better with each innings.

That doesn't tell the full story. You just have to watch the uneven bounce to see where this is going. People egtting bowled and lbw....why?

Because it is bloody difficult to face a 6ft something fast bowler at the best of times when they can bowl in excess of 90mph. Much harder when the bounce is uneven. At the moment it is keeping slightly low. later you may get the odd lifter and it is likely to spin more as the game progresses.

Numbers don't always tell that story but watching cricket does.
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:03

Sep 7, 2019 -- 3:45PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Imagine Aus batted out today, took England win out of the equation and declared tomorrowOdds were;Aus  2.0Draw 2.0 England 1000Now imagine they're bowled out for another 60 runs and take draw out of the equationAus 1.5England 3.0Draw 1000Aus chances of winning have increased massively but which position would they prefer to be in?


few more quick calcs...

scenario 2: aus win series by winning this match or losing it & winning @ the oval
win here = 1.5 chance
lose here & win @ the oval = 3 x 2.5 = 7.5 chance
combined 1.25 chance

scenario 1: aus win series by winning this match or drawing it & not losing @ the oval
win here = 2 chance
draw here & not lose @ the oval = 2 x 1.67 = 3.33 chance
combined 1.25 chance

WHAT. A. GAME. Cool

By:
tomtimtum
When: 07 Sep 19 16:05
Dont forget Aus only need to draw this series to retain the ashes Wink
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:06
*sorry meant ashes, not series
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:06
figures are for the ashes, not series
By:
Libertine93
When: 07 Sep 19 16:06
I get what you’re saying Tom but I think you’ve missed something. If you consider England score at say 3 an over, if Australia are all out for a lead of 300 they only have 100 overs to bowl England out. If England score at 4 an over they have even less, if Aussies get less than 300 lead they have even less overs to bowl England out. Just because there’s more overs left in the game by Aussies being out quickly it doesn’t mean they have more overs to bowl England out. Plus having more runs on the board means you can set more aggressive fields
By:
Hamlin
When: 07 Sep 19 16:07
lol wonders hasn't a scooby what he's talking about
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:07
eng won't be scoring @ 4s on day 5
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 07 Sep 19 16:09
Here we go Smith is now set again

Just facking bounce his head off
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Sep 19 16:09

Sep 6, 2019 -- 4:11PM, tomtimtum wrote:


(Comedy green ready for when Eng go sub 10s)


Good call!

By:
Hamlin
When: 07 Sep 19 16:09
Think Paine will bat for another 40 overs minimum if they can.
By:
Libertine93
When: 07 Sep 19 16:09
They might if they’re in the game. Could score at 2.5 for most of the game then when they get writhin 100 score at a run a ball
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:12
If I get out of my England lay at 19 I'll be content.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 07 Sep 19 16:12
England being aggressive and going for the win also increases Australias chance of winning
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:12
In fact it went.
By:
Libertine93
When: 07 Sep 19 16:16
Possibly, possibly not, could argue England playing positive is the best thing for them. They’re terrible at playing defensive haha
By:
peckerdunne
When: 07 Sep 19 16:20
GRANTCKING 06 Sep 19 16:48
Grin to be fair, this looked like a cert thai after day 1 imo
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 07 Sep 19 16:23
The early wickets have helped England, as most of the middle order are unlikely to score at a high clip. Now, though, it would be good if there were no more wickets, and the Aus innings just ticked along slowly. Given what happened last time and the fact that Aus don't have to win either test to retain the Ashes, Paine won't be aggressive with his declaration. Just control the run-rate, and we should be able to see this through to a draw, and there'll be all to play for in the final test.

If England had bowled anything like this from the first over of the test, they'd probably be in with a good shout of a win, as the batting wasn't too bad. However, they were dreck on the first day and a bit, so just take the draw and move on. But going for the win will almost certainly see us chuck away the Ashes.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:25
I'd be surprised if England could last a full day.
By:
gibmark
When: 07 Sep 19 16:29
but will Aus risk that with 330-350 lead ?
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 07 Sep 19 16:30
I'd say so gibmark

Can't see England pushing for 350 on the last day, it'll be backs to the wall stuff in my opinion
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:30
350 yes 300 no.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 07 Sep 19 16:30
Be amazingly surprised if he declares for less than 400.  They don't have to win..
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 07 Sep 19 16:30

Sep 7, 2019 -- 4:20PM, peckerdunne wrote:


GRANTCKING 06 Sep 19 16:48Grin to be fair, this looked like a cert thai after day 1 imo


Laugh young pecker here must have done his bollocks

By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:35
HonkyJoe • September 7, 2019 4:30 PM BST
Be amazingly surprised if he declares for less than 400.  They don't have to win..

exactly!!
By:
Injera
When: 07 Sep 19 16:36
Brilliant from Smith. Bat like your 270-4 not 70-4.
By:
wondersobright
When: 07 Sep 19 16:37
stokes doing the team talk, there's ya skipper right there imo
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:38
Aussies only need to win one of the two games or draw both. Having a good lead with opponents batting on day five needing a decent total is a reason to go for the win imo. If they lose still got last test.
By:
mafeking
When: 07 Sep 19 16:38
they have to approach it like they have to win. draw here and lose the toss at the oval and chances are they're in big trouble
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 07 Sep 19 16:38
yeap wonder

If he wants the job give it him right away, a much more capable man than Root

And he has the ears of his team mates
By:
Injera
When: 07 Sep 19 16:41
Root already panicked with the field. Has to hold his nerve and go for wickets.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Sep 19 16:41
Yeah I was impressed with Stokes giving the team talk but also thought Botham would make a good captain.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 07 Sep 19 16:44
Charlie

I think he's a little more intelligent than say Flintoff, I always thought Flinty would have been a better vice captain, he was to pally to be the main man in my opinion

Stokes is a stern fellow who has the tactical nouse as well
By:
tomtimtum
When: 07 Sep 19 16:45
You don't have to make your best leader the captain, in fact there's probably good arguments to be made for not having them.
Stokes can still do his inspirational stuff/leadership without having the added pressure of captaincy
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