Cricket
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Some good first innings scores, and some not so good, and I assume the overheads had a lot to do with that.
Forecast looks showery first 2 or 3 days, and could be a case of wickets from on and off play and periods of gloom.
Was going to start with the old reliable draw lay, and actually put the bet up and then cancelled it. Will wait to see how the forecast developes.
Forecast looks showery first 2 or 3 days, and could be a case of wickets from on and off play and periods of gloom.
Was going to start with the old reliable draw lay, and actually put the bet up and then cancelled it. Will wait to see how the forecast developes.
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A mate of mine who lives in Bolton says there's a lot of rain around at the moment. I'm holding off until nearer the start when the forecasts become a bit more reliable.
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It's Manchester... ergo any forecast that includes the word 'rain' will be accurate.
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Does look like a shower dodging job, which shouldn't prevent a result but if there's a downpour or two as well, the draw could have a lot of legs no matter how frangible both sides' batting is. I've stayed away so far as can't be backing the draw at 3.3 or so but don't much fancy a lay and find a hardening forecast either.
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B(e)tway have draw at 3.6 while its been layed on here 3.25
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While the forecast can change a lot in a week, I don't like the look of Mon and Tues currently on Netweather.
I'll look to back the draw on early wickets I think. |
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weather has improved dramatically in the last hour or so
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw25grrk#?date=2017-08-04 http://www.bbc.com/weather/6691246 No rain forecast for the first 3 days now |
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Probably When people wake up they'll start laying the draw.
Why do you no rain when there are more than a couple '40% chances' in there? |
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especially as time can be made up if there is a light shower.
That's part of my concern about Mon/Tues. Days 2 and 3 look the best for batting. Might be a good toss to lose. |
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Still looks a little bit of an anything might happen forecast to me but does seem unlikely there'll be real downpours and sessions lost so I'm trying to lay the draw at 3.4, having missed at 3. At this stage I almost prefer Sri Lanka, where you know the forecast is abject guesswork, as opposed to England, where you just suspect it.
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And let's not forget its almost a dead rubber in the sense that England already have retained the trophy. All SA are playing for is their brilliant away record and for that they have to win. Draw unlikely in my opinion but if the rain on days 4 and 5 does happen, it might be trouble, especially if England get into the position where they are the ones in charge and forcing the issue. Root'll settle for a draw 100 times out of 100.
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Precipitation Probability has nothing above 40% for the duration of the whole 5 days now.
 c'mon Man do your thing and live up to your reputation.  |
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I have layed the draw at 3.3 and 3.4 by the way...
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If in doubt, lay the draw. I'm a bit worried about the end of the test but unless there's an unexpected amount of rain early on, or a couple of unusually obdurate batting efforts, we won't need much of day 4 and 5 for a result, I don't think. Only thing against that is happier trading any showers from draw green than red so may try to get stuck in to the draw price if there are a couple of early wickets, which there probably will be.
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certainly south africa may have one eye on the plane home - some of them have been here for 3 months a very long time for a tour these days - but england shouldn't be anything other than totally focussed. 2 dire records to put to bed. terrible habit of losing straight after winning in the last 2 years and a diabolical record in the last test of a series losing something like 8 of last 9
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The latest update has a 50% Precipitation Probability Yipee!
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The manchester met office forecast is worse than their old trafford forecast with plenty 50% and even some 60% precipitation probabilities throughout.
to be frank a complete guessing game at this stage. |
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Oddly the draw is moving out despite the forecast hardening up a bit for the end of the test. Reasonable chances of full or near full days play days 1-3 will do me for draw lays under 4s though. I've had various prices from 3.7 down laid and will try to get a bit back at 4.1 if I get the chance. Otherwise we'll just let it ride.
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draw price is massive lads and corals only 2/1
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Only helpful if you can lay with them, to be fair. I still reckon 3.8 or so is a lay.
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I am expecting draw to make its way back down to 3.2 territory at least.
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I never like rain toward the end of a Test. It makes early betting tricky.
They are using heat lamps to dry the pitch, which doesn't fill me with confidence we will see decent first innings scores. |
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potentially poor forecast for days 4 and 5 likely to be irrelevant. on all known evidence from the first 3 tests and no doubt sporting pitch here this game will almost done and dusted by the end of day 3
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Do not agree with that mafeking. I know previous tests have ended early but that is also irrelevant because there is only one team that would really want to win(and that too just to draw the series, not to win it). Unless SA bat first and fold, England will be in no hurry to finish the game and it will come down to day 4 and 5 forecasts.
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none of these games has lasted much more than 3 and a half days. it's a worrying sign the pitch is so damp the groundsman feels he needs to dry it out with lamps
saffers collapse batting 1st it'll be over inside 3 days. england bat first and similar first inns scores to the oval they'd be 500 ahead well before the close on day 3. they'd be declaring that night. won't batting on until halfway through day 4 |
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Tuesday looks like it could go either way weatherwise - mostly dry or a washout.
I'm going to be cautious on this match, the first couple of days. |
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rain rain rain, the 'metoffice' have it possible washout monday/tuesday
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One thing for sure, the chance of rain on days 4 & 5 will keep the draw in play. Could be some very nice opportunities
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Could be some very nice opportunities
That's what I am thinking. |
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The models for Tuesday have the weather coming around a low from the north. Not unlike that NZ Test.
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Not a test to get too fixated on a particular outcome. I've laid the draw pretty heavily but will look to even out fairly early if I can.
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On the current forecast, it looks like a result.
However, I'm hoping it goes to day 5 and we get some weather action. |
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FS did you win on the cmm last night?
I thought I'd lost and then noticed my bank went back to the previous amount. Realised I'd laid 1.29 on match odds not NO in cmm. GOd knows what was going through my mind but it was a mistake that didn't cost me anything (for once) |
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Yes, I lost. One of several recent CMMs I've screwed up having got good trades in but unbalanced too far towards yes when all three have ended up no. Think I've been rather unlucky but will probably be a bit more careful in future.
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The Essex Gloucs (which I won on but only small with huge green on yes) and last night's were both pretty gutting as both games were set to complete with pretty clear skies but a small shower just as about to resume killed them. Both could have been played in the amount of rain that fell quite easily too.
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Yeh there have been some harsh cmm's recently.
Got lucky last night and in the game at Hove. The only one I really got stung on was the Women's game (of all games). WI v Pak with Big Sue playing in biblical rain. Cardiff with the phantom rain too but not for as much |