Cricket
New Zealand v Australia - 1st Test at Wellington
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Enjoy the rest of the day guys, I'm off to bed. Market not doing anything so taking the chance of leaving the red open on NZ. Hopefully Aus will not be bowled out cheaply after lunch but crazy things can happen.
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and yeah, real throat burner
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I backed the draw at 15.5. Laid it at 13, then tried to back again at 15.5 then down to 14. But no joy.
Normally, with no weather, draw will drift before play, but not in this case. |
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This process does my head in
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wow what a catch
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Knew I should have backed NZ when they took the new ball
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Mitchell Marsh needs oiling . Stiffer than Watto
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Got a lay in of Aus, come on collapso
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lost 2 wickets and price moved about 1 tick, cant be right
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I laid NZ and backed again at new ball. Now laid them again and hoping for a partnership.
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Nevill not convincing
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Wish I'd had jucel's cojones. Having had to sleep though most of the second day's play all I managed was a couple of draw backs at 10.5 and 11 when it was drifting for no terribly good reason then lay offs at 9, to improve my shagged position a bit. Need a lot more draw shortening to get out without too much pain. Don't see why it should come in much more until NZ bats and then obviously only if batting without throwing wickets away this time.
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3 days left, and can NZ bat for 2 days to save or even win the Test. I'd give them somewhere over a 1 in 7 chance. Far from impossible.
I'm in good shape. Just need to keep my NZ and draw reds reasonable. |
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Need to work out what NZ need to do to save the match.
They will probably start their innings after lunch maybe 400 odd behind. Even if they score 600 in 5.5 sessions that would leave Aus 200 to get in 2 sessions. I'd say the result is almost forgone but every big NZ partnership offers a betting opportunity and should NZ be able to set Aus a total there may not be a flip but there will be a narrowing and again that is an opportunity. |
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Looks almost played out from a betting perspective. With NZ win virtually out the running, the Aus/draw balance seems about right. Some mileage for big investors I daresay but for me I've checked out.
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I've had another bash at he draw at 6.6. The draw wont move out too much even if Aus lose wickets early and I don't think any of us can see that especially as Voges has not got out in a test Now for over 500 runs???? Once N.Z are back in we should see an overreaction (a bit of dead batting might help). Draw wont happen but it should drop to around 3s at some point today. off to sleep
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can't understand the love for N.Z.
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draw silly short here for me. NZ little chance of saving.
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I dont think it will be a draw but that doesnt mean the draw price wont shorten, the pitch looks as flat as a pancake any sort of decent partnership from NZ in their second innings will bring the price in.
I've greened up but i might get involved again if that happens. |
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of course but it's about what it is fair value of the draw right now - certainly not 1/7 chance!
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i agree, but if you wait you should be able to lay it at a lower price imo.
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should is the problem ;-) To be fair I have placed a bunch of lay orders right down to 3.1 as well.
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The draw has drifted up nicely so I'm trying to get back on it at 7.6 the lay off again at 6.4 or so. This does deepen my already large red on non draws but it seems unlikely this will hurt unless Australia throws the bat effectively enough to put time back in the game (and market often reads that as evidence of a super flat deck) and then NZ also manages to lose more than one early wicket. Even a couple of overs at the start of NZ's second innings with it looking flat and the ball not swinging will pull the draw down a fair bit. Course I need a lot more than that to hit my large series of draw lays heading all the way down to 3.75 and actually reach an overall position I'm happy with.
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Oh and this is a legendarily flat track and the Aussie bowlers may well lack the tools of express pace or real turn to chisel out a batting line up on such a deck. I agree NZ has to bat for absolute ever (perhaps not quite so long if McCullum goes crazy) to save the test but this is getting kind of surface it could be done on.
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NZ have come in to 24s & the draw to 9s? Strange stuff
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strange indeed, cant work that out ?????????????
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Just had my NZ lay at 23 taken. Just 1 more lay at 21.
NZ's chances of winning this are remote unless they go along at 6 an over for a couple of sessions. |
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Theoretically NZ post 550-600 and they set Aus a target.
Draw going out because we are not even halfway through the match. Market will be turned on its head if NZ can go 100-0 So much time left in this game Whoops thought they declared! |
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i thought they had declared aswell, that would of explained the market change
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Topped up on 9s 8.8
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draw will drop like a stone soon. it's just a waiting game
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draw will drop like a stone soon. it's just a waiting game
It will, but wickets will fall. Market always over estimates chances of a draw in these situations. |
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