Cricket
As I said in the previous thread, can't see SAF batting improving much and no Steyn makes their bowling weak. The only thing stopping me majorly lumping on Eng is it has been a very long time since anyone except Australia has beaten SAF here.
Weather not an issue at this point.
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England looked pretty good and SA pretty poor in Durban but can't see England being a back at scarily close to evens. England has been an extremely inconsistent test side since recovering from just being fairly generally bad under Moores. I wouldn't especially use the recent series of 7 games alternating wins and losses to predict a loss next test for England but equally, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a far worse performance. Whether SA can bounce back with Steyn out and a whole load of selection dilemmas and form issues is perhaps the bigger question than how England will play though.
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73 years since England last won at Newlands playing 5 test since, SA record in that time 20 wins 6 draws 7 lost, in more reason times losing just once in 13 tests, so have a good record at cape town, looking at the current SA team I can't see then extending that run,a few out of form (alma) and a few not 1/2 as good as the lads that good them to number 1,so an Eng win for me
 , happy and prosperous new year to you all |
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Steyn not definitely out but Abbot is. New fellow Viljoen set to play. Apparently seriously quick. Assuming Rabada in for Steyn, SAF bowling may be rather better this match. de Kok may come in and take the gloves.
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Big move up on the draw and down on SAF. Maybe the market likes the 2 new SAF bowlers. Quite often a bowler on debut takes wickets because batsmen haven't seen him before.
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Is there any way to lay the draw without exchange? I mean in the normal sportsbook? One option would be betting on 'England or SA' but betfair does not provide that bet.
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Why would you use the sportsbook?
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Betting exchanges are not legal in Germany.
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You back both teams to win the same amount, it's called Dutching.
Here is a calculator to help you work out how much to stake. https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/dutching.html |
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Perhaps it should be called Deutsching in Germany.
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haha good one :) Thanks for the link :)
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You're welcome, And good luck.
I already layed the draw early for this match which appears to have been a good move so far as the price continues to drift. Doubt very much this will be a draw. |
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I don't think it will be a draw either, but I always like to have the draw onside day 1, as it usually shortens when up around 5.
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Yes, it can improve your profitability as long as you don't mind being locked in on the wrong side of the market occasionally, but that also happens when laying the draw too.
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interesting
http://www.sport24.co.za/Cricket/Quotas-to-drive-Viljoen-to-NZ-20150421 |
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""Patriotism is out the door," said De Villiers. "
That is exactly the reason why SA aren't the same team. You can see that the players aren't interested anymore. WC2015 semifinal was a disgrace and since then even AB has seem uninterested in the game. No wonder there are rumours(threats) of his retirement. I am a big SA fan but now there is no more motivation to follow them. Sadly. |
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Just realised that that quote above was from Fanie DeVilliers, not AB. Though I would love AB to come out on this issue. He has serious concerns over it but somehow they have managed to keep him quiet.
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why the sudden flip flop ?? have i missed something ??
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No Steyn and Jimmy likely to come back in for England. Yet, the market thinks SA's chances have somewhow improved.
 An incredible flippage indeed. |
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I think the market over reacted in favour of England after the first test but England at over 3s look a bit appealing. Disappointed I didn't get any draw when it was around 5 thinking I might get slightly over. Not that I expect a draw but 5 is a pretty good back to lay price.
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At under 4s the draw just looks like a lay instead, mind. May get some orders in. Will look for any word on pitch.
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I'm wary of taking on the draw at this stage. I know little of SA's replacement bowlers and if they're filth England could post a very big first innings score.
I would have thought this pitch won't break up like Durban and batting should be easier. It's certainly going to be hot work for the bowlers. Hopefully we'll see the draw sub 3s again at some point. |
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More surprising price movements. Draw was 4.4 10 minutes ago
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An amazing drift on England , i would of thought an injury to Root or Cook would have to happen to cause that. The market has gone the opposite to what i expected. I will wait to lay the draw aswell, three overs without a wicket in the morning will see it around 3 imo.
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Has Anderson been ruled out? Big drift on England
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Touring teams invariably perform better in a 2nd test than 1st, I've gotten on Eng anyway. Those who have been matched at over 3.0 you lucky sods, wish I was paying attention when that was happening.
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Touring teams invariably perform better in a 2nd test than 1st, I've gotten on Eng anyway. Those who have been matched at over 3.0 you lucky sods, wish I was paying attention when that was happening.
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Tried and failed to get on England over 3 but have got on draw at 4.5, which feels like a good enough back to lay price.
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looks like we are heading for another flip flop again now, strange goings on indeed.
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FWIIW, people will keep SAF price shorter than it should because of SAF's remarkable record here. With Anderson back and Steyn out or carrying an injury, Eng should be a good bit shorter.
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Draw price seems large again. I would have thought there will be a lot of runs in Cape Town.
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Agree Injera, the draw felt big at 4.5 on a good batting surface, despite the flaky batting on both sides and I've doubled up at 4.7 as it drifted further. I don't expect the new ball to swing and seam much for either attack, certainly on day 1 so if the opening batsmen (or even the top 4 assuming and early wicket or two) aren't idiots the draw could easily come in a very long way with the typical market over reaction to the start of a game. Even if the first side to bat gets blown away, they'd still be a bit of hope for a draw back with the second innings likely to do better with the best batting days 2 and 3.
Don't see huge interest in the prices of either England or SA at the moment although a SA lay is a bit appealing at around 2.5. Oddly, the SA price has been relatively stable while the draw and England have danced about. Gutted I didn't get any of England over 3, although was too greedy wanting 3.1 I think before dropping it. |
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Just thinking, the thing to say against a draw back is that both sides have very flaky opening partnerships. Cook is a good batsman and quite likely to do better this time but Hales is a dodgy pick while neither SA opener remotely convinces. At first drop Amla of course is badly out of form but Compton is a draw backers dream (albeit not remotely in the class of real stonewallers like Dravid) so even if Hales is out early, a Cook Compton blockathon could bring the draw right down. In fact, worth pointing out that a draw lay the moment Compton is out is probably a winner all series, as the batting gets a lot more dynamic after he's out, especially if you're down to Stokes by then.
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Draw generally drifts at this point with no weather in the forecast. I expect to see it over 5 before the toss.
A back to lay looks on the cards if Eng bat, but unlike you FS, I don't have any confidence in an Amla return to form. |
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Eng drift from 2.38 up to 2.68 then topping out 3.2, now back around 2.5
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Good points FS.
I partly disagree though that both sides have flaky batting. England were superb at Durban and that was without anything from Cook. The new lads took their chance. Down the order, one of Moeen, Johnny, Woakes or Broad will always do something. Oddly it was Broad's partnership with Finn that was vital. Most probably Woakes will be dropped but the depth of Eng's batting will still hurt SA in the next 3 matches. And if Hales gets going, it could be carnage. |
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On the topic of who England leave out to make way for Jimmy -
Clearly it won't happen but how long is it going to be before those in the know realise that our golden boy, Ben Stokes, needs to be considered? He's obviously got all the potential in the world but he still remains an all rounder that doesn't score enough runs and doesn't take enough wickets. A Test average of 27 with the bat and 40 with the bowl is nowhere near good enough yet I can't recall any discussions from commentators etc. about his worth to the team. |
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