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Pakistan vs England, 3rd Test at Sharjah
Pakistan vs England, 3rd Test at Sharjah
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Replies: 806
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 there by the grace of God |
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ECB have just said it's a 'shoulder injury'.
I presume he hasn't dislocated it then. They would shirley have said.. Be surprised if he doesn't bat. |
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Came out of its socket.
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Definite dislocation
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Can't bring myself to lay the draw at 11.
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Am very pleased with my day 1's work: huge red on the draw, moderate green on England and big green on Pak. Still upset that was too late to lay the draw under 3s though as that would have been a monstrously smug thing to have achieved.
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I think the draw is still a lay at 11s but hard to touch it at that price.
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I lay big odds all the time in Tests, just not the draw.
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What's your reasoning? I can see why you'd steer clear if there's any chance of bad weather but that doesn't apply here. I do wonder whether, in general, backing very long odds in tests is a good plan, as it's the kind of game where improbable seeming things can come back in surprisingly far (the draw last test this series being an example).
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I think opposing an odds on, day 1 is a good start with two evenly matched teams and no game break evident.
Paks were near or were odds on at one point and England now are and they haven't even batted! Geoffrey might be right in that these slow turners do occur and don't get hugely worse but there was enough bounce from Aloo Patel to suggest their leggie will make it sing, Riaz to get reverse at pace and that isn't even taking into account any new ball wickets. Englands best chance lays with long occupancy by Cook, Bell and Taylor. I don't think the others will last long if there is any fizz so in my view they should play themselves in and then go after any loose bowling. If they bat with intelligence there is no reason why they could not put together a match winning total of 350+. I just don't think they will. Big red draw, largish green Paks, miniscule red England, which, I have vowed will not get any bigger. I couldn't bet like a Fat Banker all day unfortunately. Might keep backing Pak if there is no early wicket even though I said I won't! |
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oh and green out before Paks bat again I reiterate! Don't want to be caught in any sting!
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Very similar position to me WD.
Might green up on England overnight. Very unlikely to be a draw but I never like laying double figures. One half decent mantra I adopt is that the bigger a price gets the more it's a back not a lay. The lovely phrase 'comedy green' springs to mind. |
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I haven't had a bet on the game but do not fancy England at current odds - they have the propensity to collapse anytime - if they do bat throughout tomorrow & into the 3rd day you would expect a significant lead but conversely that would suggest Pakistan will have an opportunity to bat somewhat better in the their 2nd innings and so they might still put themselves into a position of strength - if it is already turning now then it will not likely deteriorate that much more. I want England to win but a risky proposition at the current price - a couple of early wickets and Pakistan will be flip flop favourites - several wickets by early afternoon & their price will collapse - lay England @ 1.73
Good luck to all bettors whatever you do |
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Feels like the last SL/WI test to me. Low scoring affair where the home side prevails comfortably in the end.
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With stokes unlikely to play any more part in this test its easy to forget that when you look at england's score and price
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Fatslogger, I've traded a lot of Tests. While every Test is different, you do end up doing similar things in Test after Test simply because they work and generate profit. Laying the draw early in a match at a big price isn't one of them. But you made me ask myself why not?
In this case, it's that this would be a bet on the pitch, and I am never really comfortable betting on what a pitch will do over 5 days. In part, because even the supposed experts at the ground on comms frequently get wrong how a pitch will behave. And partly because I have been burned in the past doing similar things. I did lay the draw overnight for a bit but purely to trade by start of play today. I said before the start of the match, I didn't have a good feel for how this match would go. I still don't. 234 could prove to be a good score, or maybe a poor score which England will go well past. I'll go into day 2 with a modest all green (thanks to my pre-play trading) or close to, and maybe look to lay the draw below 5 if Eng get a good start, as I don't fancy their chances batting last, despite a good performance by the tail in the last match. |
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Good point fatboy. The loss of his bowling is probably not hugely important, although it will reduce England's options second innings but if he can't bat at all, England's very deep batting line up is effectively one down in both innings already. It's possible that England could bat a long way past Pakistan and dominate the game but I think it's more likely they'll be all out for a decent deficit and will end the day well behind. I'm quite happy with most of my green being on Pak.
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Good point fatboy. The loss of his bowling is probably not hugely important, although it will reduce England's options second innings but if he can't bat at all, England's very deep batting line up is effectively one down in both innings already. It's possible that England could bat a long way past Pakistan and dominate the game but I think it's more likely they'll be all out for a decent deficit and will end the day well behind. I'm quite happy with most of my green being on Pak.
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I'm massive red on Eng, humongous red on the draw & ginormous green on pak.
I think the odds are wrong. I'd have Pak 2.2 & Eng at around 2s & the draw 25s |
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had to lay Eng at these odds
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Stoke's right arm too. That's his top batting hand so he won't even be able to hold the bat.
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If Eng manage 50/0, their price will go sub 1.5 and the draw quite a bit shorter. I'll look to lay both at well below current prices, as an Eng collapse at some point looks a decent bet. Hopefully not too early.
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We may be over reading the pitch and it's certainly possible that England will manage a big first innings but I don't think it's at all likely, certainly not without a lot of runs from Cook and / or Root.
Thanks for the explanation pxb. I certainly don't trust the comms on pitches (according to Botham every pitch will deteriorate and become difficult to bat on, even when it's entirely obvious that it's a lump of concrete that won't deteriorate in a year) and I can see your point about not betting on one but this track doesn't look like one the game is at all likely to go long on. Apart for a bit of early tackiness wearing out I can't really think of an occasion where a pitch spins less as time goes on. The odd one gets so slow and low you can keep the ball out even turning a lot but if that happens this is still a fairly advanced game with 4 days left. |
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As they say,
'Never judge a pitch, until both sides have batted on it.' |
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From the Telegraph
"Stokes is booked in for a scan this afternoon in Dubai to establish if he has sustained any serious ligament damage. England will bat with only 10 men in the first innings of this Test and Stokes is likely to reappear only if final-wicket heroics are needed in the second innings." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/england/11969018/Pakistan-vs-England-Ben-Stokes-sweats-on-extent-of-injury-which-could-rule-him-out-of-South-African-tour.html |
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I have a question for you clever people. If I fancy Pakistan to win this am I better off buying pakistan or laying England?
Ordinarily at this stage of a game I would lay England to cover the draw ( and as I have big red draw maybe just to get some cover and get back well within my betting allocation for this match to " go again " ). In this instance I am convinced the draw is not going to happen so my instinct it is buy Paks but my survival genetics say lay England. Secondly I am going to hold back for an over or two this morning in the hope of extra points. Would that be construed as too greedy? or perhaps sensible in that the pitch may play slightly different. I only have nominal exposure on England right now. |
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WD. I can see 2 issues.
1. What's covering some of your draw red worth to you? You'll be covering around 12. 2. How much is 'going again' worth to you? Bear in mind that effectively means backing Pak at a higher price or laying Eng at a lower price. You are right delaying is risky as wickets could fall at any time and the chances of doing this evaporate. FWIIW I'm doing similar, and also looking to back the draw before play, on the basis Eng could go a while without loss and I can lay the draw lower. Not that I have much faith in Ali. |
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traded out after Ali's wicket, it was starting to look ominous.
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All very soporific at the moment.
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England getting down to the rather aggresive lays I left up. The longer they bat, the more likely they will batting day 5.
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Playing myself into a bit of a pickle in this test. Draw lay looks tempting
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Morning Ladies,
Thanks for your opinions. Most welcome to have people's viewpoints. Sometimes I just think about where the match is going rather than where the exchange is going, which, actually is not a bad way of doing things but not as smart. I am not a trader by nature so play a longer game than both of you and build up the green on who I think will win ( generally ) then try and reduce liability as much as possible. I get involved quite early in the game as I believe there is more time for a game to come back my way if I have read it wrong...I am prepared to wait rather than tale a loss straight away. I appreciate this is a little alien to both of you and understand why. I see the point yesterday of laying England rather than backing Pakistan. today with the drift so big on Pakistan so big already I have started buying them but also decided to lay England at 1.6. I think the market has got this priced wrong. England are still along way back and a misfortune will shake up the exchange pretty quickly. I am keeping the England liability to 20% of bet. I was not smart enough to buy the draw earlier at 12's. Should have I know! I am not overly concerned this game will go to a draw but I am not overly happy to have my whole match bet exposed to the draw for whatever act of God may conspire ( terrorist attack, typhoon, space ship falling out of the sky etc! ). Anyway in short my hunch is the pitch while ok can be tricky for some. For me England top 5 make runs the rest probably not against Shah. So it is all about when Root or Taylor get out I think. Still a long way to go for both teams to take a hold of this match and as such the odds are too wide so I am taking a " gamble " as the result is unclear still. |
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Usually surprised and don't approve of England's selection policies particularly mid series but these changes looking a great call- 2 very good players of spin coming in and Patel very useful yesterday.. On the other side pak's change for this seamer (although inforced) looks a bad call as he hasn't looked very threatening & England should be able to play him quite well.. Still quite a bit to do but really happy as an England supporter and think if they could sneak a win it would be fully justified in terms of the whole series- they've looked competitive and traded odds on all 3 tests (maybe slightly over evens in the second but looked good at one stage).. Pakistan there for the taking this afternoon
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Only bet I could find was a lay of England. at 1.54.
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I was 2k up before the start of play yesterday. Managed to fritter all that away in the last session & then this morning was 2k down after 20 minutes play. Managed to scramble back to parity after Ali's wicket, so taking a break for now. This is the sort of game where you could get in a mess
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Am tempted by an England lay myself but always reluctant to take away my green on what I think the most likely outcome is. Also effectively backing the draw by so doing, which reduces my exposure but at a price I don't fancy: the draw has rightly come a fair way in but even a big England first innings score, which hardly looks certain, doesn't make the draw that likely. If England gets 400 in 5 sessions (and one would hope for some acceleration once a little way past Pak) that leaves 7 sessions to take 10 wickets and score the runs or even take 10 wickets and get bowled out going for them. Pak would be left needing to bat about 5 sessions themselves for again about 400 to keep the draw in the picture.
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lol. Yeah, Been there plenty of time. Usually with me though it is the last 20% of the game. Trade solid for 4 days, then lose the lot and more on day 5 lol..
I lost a big chunk first trade, and this trade now is getting me back to about even. lol. 33k worth of bets on, about even.  |
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Wow all sorts of trouble there...
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Letting some of this go a little longer. Ball starting to do plenty.
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