there are plenty of european countries that have done well, they called lock down earlier - portugal, poland, austria, the czech republic and hungary. spain, france, italy and the uk dithered and have paid the price.

They were reluctant to do a lockdown because they were reluctant to control the spread early on. Now they are tied into a peak/curve trajectory months later because they failed to take it seriously enough. And now they are also talking about testing more, tracing contacts and quarantining once the peak has gone back down to where it was when it started. This is exactly what they should have done from day 1 if they wanted to avoid a lockdown.

Not taking it seriously enough is what set them on a months long peak and curve trajectory and now everyone has to endure a lockdown and wait for it to come back down. That is entirely their fault and there is no early way out of it.

you are saying its political views but disagree with somebody who points out its political.


lol

The same lons who were cheering when Trump banned flights from mainland Europe, but not from the UK, have had the grins wiped from their faces since. And it obviously rankles like hell.

no not you des

he disagrees with you then states political arguments of parties as a rebuttal

hes a whack job

jollyswagman
22 Apr 20 21:41
Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 8,962 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
there are plenty of european countries that have done well, they called lock down earlier - portugal, poland, austria, the czech republic and hungary. spain, france, italy and the uk dithered and have paid the price.

^

Spain 'shut down' one week before us and kept non-essential manufacturing open for way longer. Italy also relatively shut countrywide well later.

Is there any science that supports the idea the type of lock downs happening (with carehomes being open to many people from multiple households coming and going to work) actually reduces the spread.

Will look tomorrow at comparing growth in cases sweden verus 'lock down' countries tomorrow.

dotch emphasises exactly what des was suggesting

Sweden's peak date for deaths appears to have been April 8th, so the narrative that it is running out of control doesn't seem to stack up really.

Singapore, who have been lauded for their approach, actually used the UK blueprint for dealing with a pandemic.  We couldn't as we failed to fund the infrastructure and resources necessary to implement our own recommendations.

not quite sure about that clydebank as our pandemic fighting plan was for a fight against the flu. this is one of the problems, the asian countries who have done well seem to have realised quite quickly this wasnt the flu whereas we stuck with the same plan.

Similar story in New Zealand. Interview on Sky News today where the interviewee stated that an early switch from flu measures to COVID measures has been key for them.

Look at Germany's graph of daily new case history. They are in a steady downtrend of new cases while testing is at a high level and they've reopened small shops. Remember the numbers today are not a reflection of what's happening on the ground in terms of the spread and how many are getting infected today. Today's numbers are a reflection of what was happening a week or two ago when those people got infected.

You need to see a steady downtrend where if it continues you will be at a level where new cases in a week or two will be at a level where you have the human & testing resources to test and track contacts aggressively. The UK may not even be at its peak yet. You are weeks away from being at a level where a release of lockdown can be seriously considered. They are either telling you what you want to hear talking about it now or else they are going to release it too early and make a mess of it again.

re Sweden and 'urban areas'. Urban areas are classed as anywhere with 200 or more inhabitants and less than 200m between residences. 50+% of the population live in towns and villages of 50k people or less but most of these are classed as 'urban areas'.

I think we can all agree that the crisis has been a nightmare for just about everybody. And that we all want a vaccine to be found in a reasonably short timescale, or we hope the damned thing dies out one way or another, so we can get back to some semblance of normality. And that far fewer people become infected and die.

not quite sure about that clydebank as our pandemic fighting plan was for a fight against the flu. this is one of the problems,

They adopted our plan from 2009 I believe.  We couldn't adopt that plan as we didn't invest in it because of the recession (I am talking years of prep not a few weeks)

I know we had that daft herd immunity model that delayed lockdown by about a week and prolly cost a few thousand extra lives imo.  Two related but different things really

i thought our plan hadnt changed much since about 2005 and was a plan to fight the flu, maybe they adopted that plan but adapted it for something other than the flu??? even that confuses me as i was told that the plan was to do not much and hope for a vaccine. confused.com