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I don't agree we have applied the worst solution
If the herd basis philosophy was adopted at the outset 200,000+ would have died in a short period ... the media hysteria and the public reaction would have created pandemonium The only sane option was what they finally did albeit too late to prevent unnecessary deaths ... Are we actually introducing the herd basis by subliminal methods particularly as a vaccine is a long way down the line & testing is nowhere near where it needs to be for mass use to the wider public ... if so at least the NHS may be in a position to cope because casualties weren't front loaded Slowly releasing the restrictions has to be the best way and hopefully people are conditioned to accept social distancing is the new norm within its own limitations |
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I hate and am quite frankly frightened at the thought of the herd immunity policy and understand the fact that people would die through the NHS being totally flattened by it.
However what we are faced with in it's place is the fact that we are going to be held in the grip of this thing forever, the virus will never ever be eradicated because the virus is not dependent on human beings, it can live in another life form. Even at our very best situation going forward there will have to be some form of social distancing in place for as long into the future as you care to imagine, life as we know it now won't be the same going forward, at it's best the differences may be slight but they will be there. I think that if the two options could have both been shown in their full horrific entirety and we were asked to choose which route we would prefer to pursue it would have been the herd immunity route rather than the death by a thousand cuts route that would have prevailed. Brutal all ways round!! |
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Do we have any unequivocal evidence that you gain immunity once you've had the disease? That's the basis behind the herd immunity idea I believe, but I've seen many conflicting reports.
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The immunity idea is unproven so we simply don't know ... "its likely" is usually the answer given which is hardly a guarantee .. even if it is to what degree; for how long; will it be effective aganst a mutation of the original virus ... all imponderables until the scientific evidence gives the real answers
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I presume strangulation by quarantine is how we got rid of SARS or MERS surely. I understand the vaccine is very difficult for this so maybe we do just need to have a connected, concerted hard lockdown to kill it. Otherwise, my only other thought is to treat it similar to HIV; don't worry too much about the cure but more on treatments that make it's effect far less damaging.
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Did Wee get rid of it? Can't rem any cases in this neck of the woods until NOW.
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Sweden is lucky that the virus could never spread as fast there as it did in all the other countries that sat on their hands like they did.
There wasn't just 2 options, there was a 3rd - take it seriously from day 1 and aggressively test, track, trace contacts and quarantine - do this faster than the virus can spread and the numbers will go down. This is exactly what they are proposing to do after lockdown, but they can only do it when new cases are at a low number. They are tacitly acknowledging that this is what they should have done in the first place by proposing this now. It is possible to kill off the virus completely if you do this, in theory at least. That's what they did with SARS. This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS, MERS or Ebola but they were so deadly that it actually affected their spread - they killed people off before they could spread to someone else and the virus eventually died off. So, while this is nowhere near as deadly, it is much more problematic for the world because it only really kills a small section of the population but uses the rest of it to continue spreading. |
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What is wrong with letting the old, sick,very fat and cowardly hide away and then lift the lockdown for for the rest of us.
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Would like to know how the virus has spread freely in the old folks homes, it's a simple question, no doubt they are working on confusing the question before it's answered, of course it may not be quite that simple but it should be an area that helps understand how this virus is spread, its either via the workforce or via hospitals and doctors. Maybe chicken and egg situation but how can it not be eradicated in these environments, we need to get a bit smarter and be a lot more honest about transmission routes.Are older folk getting it and being infected indefinitely? Something about this is not adding up.
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I think they suspect it got into care homes from people going to hospitals and bringing it back with them as well as agency staff working in different care homes due to permanent staff calling in sick or being in quarantine. Within nursing homes I just think a lot of them have dementia and aren't good at social distancing or taking precautions when coughing/sneezing etc
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geordie1956
22 Apr 20 18:14 Joined: 28 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 7,741 | Blogger: geordie1956's blog I don't agree we have applied the worst solution If the herd basis philosophy was adopted at the outset 200,000+ would have died in a short period ^ Is this from the now debunked Imperial College 'Paper' that ignored the fact new ICU beds could be created? Clearly nonsense as our ability to rapidly build new hospitals and create new ICU beds in current hospitals has already proved. |
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and a complete lack of PPE in them as well, ie a lot less than what hospital staff have.
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Yeah, I remember something about people visiting hospital (poss for something else) and being released back without having had a test. And bingo!
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IT - you've tried to hammer this so I'll bite.
Who has debunked the Imperial College paper please? |
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lurka
22 Apr 20 18:47 Joined: 25 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 15,251 | Blogger: lurka's blog I think they suspect it got into care homes from people going to hospitals and bringing it back with them as well as agency staff working in different care homes due to permanent staff calling in sick or being in quarantine. Within nursing homes I just think a lot of them have dementia and aren't good at social distancing or taking precautions when coughing/sneezing etc ^ Yes with 20/20 hindsight carehomes are the weak link. Whilst people under 45 (1.2% of deaths) are locked down and having minimal contact you have dozens or more older people interacting in carehomes with people coming and going all the time. We have done this the wrong way round (same as France, Spain and everyone else). Keep younger people in households of 1-4 people with limited interaction with other people whilst older people in carehomes are interacting with eachother plus workers that go from carehome to carehome, go on public transport to the carehome etc all the time increasing the risk to these older vulnerable people. |
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The care homes are infected by the people who work there and the residents have weak immune systems so it is easily spread . The workers are not tested so no one knows who is carrying . Easily solvable but none of the "experts" can work it out....
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PorcupineorPineapple
22 Apr 20 18:49 Joined: 03 Dec 15 | Topic/replies: 9,388 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blog IT - you've tried to hammer this so I'll bite. Who has debunked the Imperial College paper please? ^ Every person out there will a clue on the subject. This Swedish guy who used to run their system sums it well in layman's terms. Take your time to listen to what he has to say. It is interesting... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY P.s. this is not a conspiracy website. That have had other guests on who you will recognise. Summary from the link if you fear clicking it..... Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks: - UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based - The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only - This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product” - The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better - The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact - The paper was very much too pessimistic - Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway - The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown - The results will eventually be similar for all countries - Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. - The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% - At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available ^ I WOULD URGE PEOPLE TO WATCH THIS WITH AN OPEN MIND. |
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SARS usually didn’t become contagious until several days after symptoms appeared. This meant that, actions taken during this period to isolate or quarantine ill patients can effectively interrupt transmission also the proportion of transmission occurring prior to symptoms is different. For SARS, this was less than 11%, probably much less.
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Trying to keep an open mind but just googled UnHerd. Hmm.
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Whilst people under 45 (1.2% of deaths) are locked down and having minimal contact you have dozens or more older people interacting in carehomes with people coming and going all the time.
Maybe though these people have underlying issues and do have regular hospital/doctor contact, no info on this group so with respect we can't draw any conclusions.Care homes need systems put in place ASAP, if older folks are fit they should not be exposed to contamination, rem working in a water board premises, everything split between clean and dirty, ie drinking water and waste water, seperate everything. We need to get moving and put systems in place. |
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I though the same PP,
Recent other guests Lord Adonis, Alastair Campbell and Maajid Nawaz. Not my favourite people from pre-virus times when we all thought thing like Brexit were actually important! But even so give the video a go as the guest has 'good' credentials on the subject compared to the majority of chitchatters. |
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breadnbutter
22 Apr 20 19:04 Joined: 29 Aug 06 | Topic/replies: 10,601 | Blogger: breadnbutter's blog Whilst people under 45 (1.2% of deaths) are locked down and having minimal contact you have dozens or more older people interacting in carehomes with people coming and going all the time. Maybe though these people have underlying issues and do have regular hospital/doctor contact, no info on this group so with respect we can't draw any conclusions.Care homes need systems put in place ASAP, if older folks are fit they should not be exposed to contamination, rem working in a water board premises, everything split between clean and dirty, ie drinking water and waste water, seperate everything. We need to get moving and put systems in place. ^ Absolutely if the goal is to minimise total deaths then 80/20 theory suggests you absolutely protect care homes before everything else. No country has sadly done this. |
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Only 10 minutes in but am wondering, in the interests of balance, have this UnHerd channel had anyone on saying the IC paper was correct?
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They had seperate vans, seperate toilets, seperate canteens, no cross contamination and this was very strictly enforced and adhered to. For some reasons care homes have been allowed to do there own thing, the money these places generate for there owners is phenomenal,they charge like wounded rhino's.
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PorcupineorPineapple
22 Apr 20 19:15 Joined: 03 Dec 15 | Topic/replies: 9,390 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blog Only 10 minutes in but am wondering, in the interests of balance, have this UnHerd channel had anyone on saying the IC paper was correct? ^ Has anyone ever in the history of the world gone on record saying the IC paper is correct apart from Neil Ferguson? If you can find a scientist on record supporting their paper I would like to read/watch it. |
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But the IC paper is fundamentally the same as the WHO advice that pretty much all countries are following in some form or other, right?
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I agree with IT.
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the ic paper is definitely not what the who advise, they say test, isolate and contact trace. this is the standard way of dealing with an epidemic and is in fact what the countries in the east who have been successful have done. this approach was never modelled by the imperial mob.
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There was a study in Ireland if no measures were in place,i was stunned at the results,i can't find it but from memory the death rate would be x 15.
Wasn't too impressed if that was the same Swedish prof that was interviewed yesterday,he seemed pigheaded |
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PP,
the 'unherd' also did a video with Lord Adonis. As I said when we thought Brexit actually mattered either way he was on your side I believe. He has some very balanced things to say on this..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fG3IoxleDHE&t=188s Take a look... we are storing up major problems with our correct approach. It is a tightrope. It is almost as if by locking down we are having our instant gratification now (public happy action is being taken) and in return the future will be much more bleak. Remember goal of lock down was so NHS is not overwhelmed. It is not. The new hospitals are being built. Excess ICU beds exist in their thousands. Has the government since changed their goal? |
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* with our correct approach.
replace correct with current... I am not sure it is correct! |
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The NHS isn't overwhelmed to the detriment of the care sector.
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i t using crackpots on youtube again?
send more money ? |
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phase 2 wave 4
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new hospitals not being built, large spaces are being filled with hospital lite stuff
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----you-have-to-laugh---
22 Apr 20 19:51 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,216 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog i t using crackpots on youtube again?. ^ Professor Johan Giesecke, Lord Adonis, Alastair Campbell and Maajid Nawaz are crackpots and Neil Ferguson is god? Just because Trump and Boris followed what Neil Ferguson wrote you believe he is right no questions asked? You are so devoted to Trump and Boris you cannot see them possibly making a mistake? |
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I wonder of Johnson will describe it as a mild disease, just like the flu ?
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you dont have post some rubbish when debunked it
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you dont have post some rubbish when debunked it
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