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How is a 3 week lockdown going to fix this ?
How is a 3 week lockdown going to fix this ?
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The idea of getting half of the country infected isn't, in itself, a bad idea. I found this interview quite interesting:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-israeli-expert-trump-is-right-about-covid-19-who-is-wrong-1.8691031 However, they did err in using the flu for their model. Since then they've lost all confidence in themselves. |
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it certainly shows not all scientists agree. i am not aware of any government ever going for herd immunity by allowing the population to get infected ( i did hear of parents in the 50s holding 'pox parties' before vaccines were available) . i think allowing infection is bonkers when you know so little about it.
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I was once taught that you can proof mathematics, but can only disprove science. So science is very much more open to debate.
As for pox parties, I was the first in my class to get something like mumps or measles, and I was encourage by everyone's parent to continue as I was because it was best for their child to get it at that age rather than later on. But with this, it's new hence it's name as novel coronavirus, and any action is not 100% certain. No decisions with this are easy, let's put it that way. But the Korean approach outlined above, definitely looks the best and it's a real shame we didn't follow, especially when there were vocal people calling for us to do weeks and months ago. |
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It would certainly be pretty difficult to pass off politically. If you're letting 50% of 66M get it, and only around 0.2% of those actually die, that's still in excess of 60K dying. Not sure a government could do that as a deliberate policy and hope to get re-elected.
There's still an opportunity for them to implement a South Korea-style system though. The people getting infected today should be working their way through the system (successfully or not!) over the next two to three weeks. Close the country down for around four weeks, and by the end of that period the numbers (theoretically) ought to have come down. Have in place the kind of mass testing system (with temperature testing as a secondary check) they've implemented in SK, and use good detective work to clamp down on all sources. Otherwise try and let people go about their normal business. (With the temperature testing you actually get the businesses to do part of the testing for you!) That could work, provided the next few weeks acts as a kind of reset. But I fear the government's just going to keep everything shut down indefinitely until there's some semblance of a cure - they might be waiting a long time for that.. |
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testing only works well if people comply but too many here hell bent on spreading this thing or
spreading it against their will . Also feel sorry for some construction workers who don't want to be flocking on site as they are bullied buy the big firms to work ... it's all a bit of a mess . somebody said bin men in groups in cabs  |
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But that's why the temperature thing is (potentially) so effective. If the businesses are telling employees they can't go beyond the front desk unless they've proven they don't have a temperature, and are then refusing to let them come back to work until they've shown that they've been checked, the employees will be forced to go along with it. (Most businesses have been keen to put out cleansers and other stuff, so I'm sure most big firms would be keen to comply.)
I appreciate we're rather more bloody-minded than the nicely-behaved Koreans, but it would have a lot more sense to it than the current headless chicken scheme. |
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Darlo i think we will see certain nations badly affected by this and others not so bad ...i imagine south koreans and Japanese fare well ... I don't know that for certain but they are generally pretty good when i've seen them .
other countries to suffer will be those with high numbers in households . |
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I see the Swedes are being as contrary as ever..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151111/Swedish-people-disregarding-Covid-19-lockdown-going-pint.html |
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Lee Macks got it after attending Cheltenham.
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A take it he's not going out pumphol?
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Would he lie to you?
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Who wouldv'e guessed?
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Worth noting that the weekly death rate (from all causes) in this country is currently below average, and has been since the start of February.
The latest published figure: The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 13 March 2020 (week 11) was 11,019; this represents an increase of 124 deaths registered in comparison with the previous week (week 10). The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 11,205. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales No more people are dying with this Chinese virus than die anyway. In fact, fewer are dying, perhaps on account of washing their hands. |
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Fewer road related deaths, Fewer STDs....
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More jumping from top floor windows..
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Fewer people entering hospitals needlessly.
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we are only at the very beginning screaming
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who started it?
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OP asks how is 3 week lock down going to fix it, it's not and no one said it would, its to flatten the curve, so we can cope with shortage of beds, ventilatirs, ect. Save lives. More ventilatirs on the way then maybe we can think about taking hand brake off but reckon we are going to see it pretty grim by middle of next week. Hopefully I am wrong
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
If the Swedes are correct the economy has been crashed for nothing. |
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*Ventilators
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Up to 13 March, ten people were reported in England and Wales as having died as a result of COVID-19.
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You see a slightly similar phenomenon with cancer screening. It reduces the number of deaths due to cancer, but has absolutely no effect on the number of deaths full stop. Deaths due to lethal screening techniques, false positives, over-diagnosis, needless treatment and dangerous treatment exactly cancel out the lives saved from early diagnosis of cases.
https://www.bmj.com/bmj/section-pdf/187371?path=/bmj/343/7830/Head_to_Head.full.pdf At the moment, this Chinese virus appears to be just replacing what would have been other causes of death in vulnerable individuals. |
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According to Snopes, "DailyWire.com has a tendency to share stories that are taken out of context or not verified", including reports on protesters digging up Confederate graves, Democratic congresspeople refusing to stand for a fallen Navy SEAL's widow, and Harvard University holding segregated commencement ceremonies.
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we are only at the very beginning screaming
Are we though? We have no hard evidence of how many people have been infected. We might be very close to the high point for all we know. You can't compare us with Wuhan or Lombardy, and say we're definitely going that way. Way better air quality and far fewer smokers for two things. What we do know is that a highly infectious virus has been around for a couple of months at least, for most of that time no lockdown was in place, yet fewer people are dying than normally do at the time of year. |
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At the moment, this Chinese virus appears to be just replacing what would have been other causes of death in vulnerable individuals.
If that is true, why are they having to set up huge temporary morgues in Italy? Carers abandoning care homes in Spain and leaving the elderly to die? 950+ deaths in Italy today alone and 9,000+ in the last 5 weeks. 15% of all deaths in Italy are front line doctors and nurses. Numerous cases around the world of healthy people with no underlying health conditions succumbing to it. Is that the same as the seasonal flu? |
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If that is true, why are they having to set up huge temporary morgues in Italy?
Because all funerals are cancelled. Or certainly were. Wouldn't actually be surprised if we get to the awful point where funerals will take place with nobody present. |
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Already happening. People are being cremated asap.
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Numerous cases around the world of healthy people with no underlying health conditions succumbing to it. Is that the same as the seasonal flu?
More people with no underlying health conditions die of influenza than have so far of the Chinese virus. Not just the well-known dangers of flu to pregnant women either. Why is the flu killing so many American children? Hundreds of young people have died from the virus over the last several years as doctors attempt to predict the best vaccines to combat the annual outbreak Alex WoodwardNew York Monday 10 February 2020 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/flu-children-us-deaths-outbreak-america-why-coronavirus-a9323866.html Gives a graphic account of flu killing a healthy 16-year-old. |
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Look at the rate of increase in cases and deaths across europe and in the USA - we are know where near the peak yet
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Think they're called Paupers funerals, when councils have control over arrangements including how many people attend.
I think the lockdown will only last the 3 weeks given, til April 13th, when the government sees just how much damaged it's caused and will caused not just economically but to people's wellbeing, already a severe lack of facilities for mental health patients, with so many stay at home dads now birth rate may set to soar this Christmas as well, more strain on the NHS. Think best course of action would be to faze out the lockdown, after 3 weeks, only those with long term underlying health conditions should remain self isolating for maybe another 3 weeks. |
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It's not an exponential increase. The population is finite.
It's a Gompertz function, which is much more complicated, having far more variables, too many of which are unknown. We can't know precisely when it will flatten, but there has to be a moment when it will. And the more infectious the virus, the sooner it will do so. |
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^ To 'drive for show'.
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the lockdown will run for the 12 weeks the elderly have been told to self isolate.
Restrictions will be tightened in a couple of weeks. This is only the beginning. A kill rate of 0.1% would suggest that less than 1million are infected. Lets say we quadruple the figure for the incubation period that would suggest there are still 60 million people yet to be infected. This is going to be a long road. |
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Maybe we shouldnt be looking at a vaccine for catching covid but focusing more on a vaccine on preventing you from PASSING it on...
Something that 100% neutralises any virual load that's usualy secreted in ones coughs n sneezes or spittle Then again I can see the pharmaceuticals being dead against this...cos it could be seen as a possible cure for the common cold |
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it took 4 months to record 300,000 global cases. It has taken 6 days to record the second 300,000.
It took 4 months to record 13,000 global deaths. The number of global deaths has more than doubled in the following 6 days. Today 3,000 recorded deaths there were only 4 times that in the first 4 months. In a weeks time we will be past a million cases and pushing 100,000 deaths - you can then keep doubling until we hit the peak which in the uk terms is expected to be in around 3 months times. The death rate will actually accelerate once the ICUs are over whelmed as people who could be saved wont even make it a ventilator. The UK had 4,000 ventilators a month ago. Its now triple that they want a further 30k. This isn't just the flu and there is no way we will be returning to anything like normality any time soon. |