To me its a simple case of what Hobbs is saying.
After Saturday they will decide if they think they can win the race.
Then make the decision.

Was hoping for news too. I would be surprised if there was any issue. Just landed too steep and was caught immediately. The horse is a little fragile I think and recognising what a proper race it turned out to be I would have been worried the  race would have left its mark had he traded blows. Happening at fence one a number of weeks before the festival and the absence of a gruelling race were mitigating factors that convinced me to top up my bet at the 14s offered by PP

Yep got a jumping lesson from ballyoisin then proceeded to sluice up. I am always very wary of backing horses based on their ability to jump because you know that unless they jump well when you back them they are unlikely to win. Perversely I am very keen on the angle of inconsistent jumpers that are sure to go very close if they jump well. So what price would you have CE if you knew in advance he was going to jump well in the CC. For me much shorter than he currently is. This makes it a bet for me on my balance of risk and reward.

A perfect example for me of the opposite is Fakir doudairies at least his first two chases. His ability to jump well got baked into his price and therefore jumping perfectly became a must do and just one mistake meant he no longer represented value. Where is the potential upside if he is already jumping perfectly.

Another way of looking at this. Imagine you are one of the jockeys on one of the big three. U are at the start of the race and you start thinking about scenarios that worry you. I think close to top of the list is I am worried about CE if he jumps well. In fact I am maybe thinking you know what if this fella jumps well I could be in a lot of trouble. When that kind of horse is 14-1 I will always back it.

Most horses unless they have loads in hand need to jump pretty well to win a top race. I agree in that I will quickly eliminate a lot of horses that irrespective of how they jump I don’t think can win however I think many punters look at how a horse has jumped historically and assume that is how it will jump in the next race and yet there are countless examples of horses that jumped well in its last few races that make mistakes nto and there are countless examples of horses that made mistakes the last couple of races that then go on to put in an impeccable round of jumping.

I take the view that how a horse jumps nto is harder to predict than we think and therefore take a step back and focus first and foremost on the ability of the horse and its price. I find that occasionally this throws up horses that have a lot more talent than the price would suggest. I then ask myself is there a case to be made for the horses jumping to be better nto than previously.

Novices in particular can suddenly click with their jumping so I am more likely to take the risk with a novice. Horses that I have read have had intensive schooling, been to henriettas etc. Horses that are with yards that have a proven track record of improving a horses jumping. So I treat jumping as much more of a variable that can be better or worse nto than a constant and I tend to find that the price of good jumpers is such that jumping well nto is already hard wired and baked into the price. Therefore there is only neutral or a down side.

On  another thread there is discussion about Asterion Forlonge. Imo it is already baked into his price that his jumping WILL IMPROVE. This doesn’t happen all that often but when it does then I’m out.

Yep happens all the time. There is a novice hurdler that I backed at 380 odd on here despite it having some of the best bumper form last year. The reason for the huge price is it hadn’t jumped well in its novice hurdle races so far. I haven’t seen the race but the post race comments suggest it’s jumping was vastly improved and it won impressively. Mcfabulous.  I am not saying he will win the Ballymore but 380 assumed his jumping would always be rubbish.

Good luck Foyles and I hope for your sake his jumping straightens up which it could well do.

The thing is if you wait for proof you no longer have value and everyone sees what you see. The best punting tip I ever heard was take a look at what everybody else does and then do the opposite. It wasn’t meant to be taken completely literally but was directional. So in this case the majority are giving CE a wide berth because everybody knows about his jumping and before you know it an opinion becomes an indisputable fact. I try and sniff out these occasions as very often that is where true value can be found.

Maybe a compromise might work for you ..... perhaps hover over him in running

One thing I know. People on one of the front three will have one eye on their own horse and one eye on how this fella is jumping. If he is jumping well there could be a lot of people getting that sinking feeling.

Re Mcfab...... I agree he was always going to improve for a step up in trip everybody knew this but it didn’t stop him being 380 and now you are telling me there is even more potential upside as his jumping can still improve. So bumper form illustrates the ability. Massive improvement for a step up in trip, another chunk of improvement for jumping better and suddenly 380 looks bonkers and all I am saying is you have to play out these what if scenarios before they happen not after.

listen of course I am not saying he will win the ballymore I don’t even have a clue if they will run him ....it’s just an example.

what books were offering 380?
no 380 on it's graph on here.

Apologies .... I was lying it was 280 and 290 and not 380. Thanks for checking up on me and keeping me honest. Obviously The post is fundamentally different now everybody knows it was 280 not 380.

douvan out injured.

Hoping my long range ‘hail mary’ selection Kalashnikov can run a good race tomorrow - have thrown a few more quid on him at 300.

Altor dismisses his Game Spirit
opponents

I’m not really sure what to make of Altior today. If that was Defi running that race today I’m sure he would have drifted against Altior and CPS...form not good enough.....needs to improve to figure in March.

Altior is definitely on the down grade now but still around the 170 mark which puts all three about the same mark. I’m going with Defi though as he’s the younger horse and has best form this year.

just think defi being held up until after the last will make it more difficult for him to hold off altior but i still have doubts he will run in the race unless its pretty soft

Altior does what he does,thats him,Wins again by a similar margin as he normally does, with that powerful finish.Cheltenhams finish suits him so well.I have seen nothing this season that tells me their is a better 2 miler .
Think hes the one to beat again.
Be interesting to see what DDS connections thought of that,with the option of the Ryanair.
Alan King looked well pleased with his horse,big smile on his face,think he had him in  much better form than last time out.
Can see him placing again.
.

Be interesting to see what DDS connections thought of that,with the option of the Ryanair. ???

There is now even less chance of DDS running in the Ryanair after Altiors performance. Before it was 90% likely now 99.99%.
I’d expect that Hobbs will be extremely pleased seeing Altior only beating SR and DD only 3 lengths. I don’t think he could have won any further than that If you watch the race again. He’s flat out from 2 out.

There’s not much between all A, DDS or CPS. The facts are the two younger horses form is superior this season...although A should improve for yesterday’s run.

They don’t need to Hibore has just taken Frank Berry’s job

Berry is also apparently considering Epatante Champion Hurdle as well after Honeysuckle’s win against Darver Star. He’s got some big decisions in the coming couple of weeks.