MS, what was your take on Altior’s win yesterday ? Where do you think DDS would have finished in that race with all known form this year.

That said I am a huge fan of Altior and so I hope I am wrong

the going will decide for defi,the champion chase is the much stronger race so i think it would have to be genuine soft going any better and they go ryanair

I have DDS at 20s for the CC and in a patent.at 20s so I will be very happy if he runs in and wins the CC. In terms of backing him for the Ryanair ... are you referring to the fun double I mentioned with Fakir? That was just a bit of fun after the Dublin race as I do not think he can beat CPS unless it is soft and I think there is a good chance he will run in the Ryanair if it is quicker than soft and I expect his 2 1/2 form to improve as his 2 mile races will have improved his jumping for 2 1/2.. as I have said repeatedly I think the British 2 mile form this year has been very poor.

I am happy with 20s but would want much bigger than he currently is to back him again. I would not back him in a single at 10s for the Ryanair as it looks like it could be a tough race and there is doubt over his participation. This is why I did the double to  reduce the stake requirement.

I am not sure how connections would have viewed yesterday. One thing is for sure they are less likely to run in the CC having seen altior come out and win than had he continued to stay in his box. There is a chance that they would have looked at altior performance less dismissively than you have and if I was in your position I would step back and think less about what I think and more what they might think. I Believe altior is on the decline, I think what I think or what you think is very possibly very different to what they think. I believe they could easily believe that altior is back on track with the promise of further improvement and I think they believe The CC just got a harder race to win.

All I have seen his trainer allude to is that they would watch yesterdays race and then try and decide which race for Defi at the festival.
On that basis, I guess its down to their thinking about Altiors performance yesterday and likely performance in the QM.
Not heard anything yet.

It was with PP some months back. They went through a phase of going out on a limb on a few horses at the time. One was delta work at 20 and 25 and another was DDS at 20.

I can’t open the bet up on the app so can’t give you the exact date.

I have a golden rule of never letting my bets drive my thinking. Like all of us I find it difficult to do but for the most part  I succeed. It is why I am sensitive when phrases like pocket talking get sent my way.

Ok I am sure you are not necessarily  interested but I will try anyway to explain my ante post strategy. I start with the perspective and knowledge that I get many more things wrong than I get right. This will mean that I back more than one horse and consider more than one angle and I am all about risk and reward or value as most call it. At the time I backed DDS I had already backed CE in singles and included CE and CPS in many multiples. The reason I do multiples is I have very few bookmakers that have not barred me and so I am trying to win big on multiples before or in case I am left with none.  The other CC horse I included in multiples was LR.

The only reason I backed DDS was price not because I thought he would win (and this is where me embracing the fact that I get more things wrong than right helps). I have found it hurts my profitability to be too dogmatic about my fancies and so when a bookie goes out on a limb on a horse I do not stop my self from backing it simply on the grounds of not fancying it. If I can find a strong argument that it represents value then I may back it even if I don’t particulalrly fancy it.

At the time of backing DDS there were two more horses that PP were out on a limb about (and here I am not talking about one or two points). The other two I fancied and they are the other two that make up my patent. It’s only pathetic superstition that stops me from naming all three.

Of course I do not back every horse that every bookmaker is biggest on but with DDS it was not a hard sell. I think and thought of him as a 2 1/2 mile horse and am a fan of the horse and backed him for last years JLT. So I needed no convincing about the horse and just concluded 20-1 means I don’t have to be dogmatic about the trip.

Because AP I only back big priced runners DDS never massively appealed for the Ryanair. If I took you through my entire AP portfolio you would see the pattern. I don’t usually invest so heavily AP but apart from exchanges which I can’t seem to warm to I am concerned that sooner or later I will end up with nowhere to bet and if that’s the case I want to go out trying to win a big one.

Hibore are you saying you saw 20s on their site and on odds checker but were only offered 8s

Ok so just to be clear because I cannot tell from your posts are you implying I am falsely claiming to have got 20s like penzance is implying I am lying about making a profit at the festivals

Miltons do you not know that all of us on here make money betting. Lots of it. All of the time. 21 out of 21 even.

Good then all of you absolutely have my respect even more so those of you that are doing it without inside knowledge

Personally if I see a horse that' looks too big a price,I would not ignore it because I did not think it would win.
I have done that many a time over the years and regretted it,so now I will add it to my list.
That way if my initial opinion of the horse is proved wrong,I will have it on my side,but it does of course depend on the price.
I've done ok at the festival since I started to have more than one runner in a race,, well better than I used to anyway!!sometimes quiet a few I can have in a race as well as plenty of non runners!!I that's my idea of ante post betting.,having nice prices on horses a lot shorter on the day.

If you're a fan of DDS, you're not going to be filled with much confidence listening to connections more worried about how Altior goes before deciding where to go rather being confident in their own horse, it sounds to me as if it is more the fact that Le Richebourg has had his setbacks this season that sees DDS being aimed toward the CC rather than the Ryanair as much as anything else.

You've not considered the most important aspect....when CPS is leading them a merry dance, how will Altior and Defi be able to cope with that?, I think their jumping will suffer and Altior's flat spot will be happening right at that point while CPS is leading them on that merry dance, not after, the extra work they will be doing to go keep tabs will have an effect on them both.

Just had my first single bet on the race.
Taken the 33 available Dynamite Dollars, think he will come on a ton for the race Saturday.

well budd it was his first run for ages and his first out of   novice company and p. nicholls has said he will come on bundles and is young talented and improving fast and could be right in the mix for the champion chase with odds of 33/1 looking decidedly generous ! most talking this up as a 3 horse race  and as the odds suggest   they may be proved right but it  was a supposedly 3 horse race for last years champion hurdle and we know how that turned out .

Good,Thats what we want.
I was a tad concerened with P Hobbs comments, but alls well that ends well.

I personally think he has zero chance of staying the Gold Cup trip. He's a speedy horse with stamina similar to Altior.

He's not a stamina horse with speed like Kauto Star and Dessie. If that makes sense

The 2005 race was a bit of an anti climax as azertyuiop made a shocking mistake at the water which ended his chances,well chief still ran well but was no match for the exceptional Moscow flyer let’s hope this year the 4 of them give us a classic.