Cheltenham Festival
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Broken my post cheltenham promise not to bet until jan 1st 2019 . Pat Kelly has one race in mind for this horse according to those in the know at rossie last night. 6\1 is well worth a punt at this moment in time top up as the others fall away , it wont be 6\1 on the 15th march 2019 and you can still lay it off for profit
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i feared the worst when i read your topic title,
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I love an ante post but this doesn’t excite me at 6/1. There are only three possible winners on form at the moment and Presenting Percy is a good stone behind 2 of them at the moment. I’d expect him to close the gap by March but if they all run he’d be around the 3/1 or 7/2 if they all lined up.
With 9 months to go it’s not great value in my opinion. |
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Interesting Hibore. there are other factors which probably cancel each other out. Cant see Native River coming back unless its the same ground, which is unlikely. I personally don't think mite bite likes Cheltenham. So it leaves itself open to an improver and most punters look immediately at the RSA . Kelly is a very astute trainer and the number of runs he puts into presenting percy, one of which I am assured will be over hurdles , between now and next march, will signal the strength of his intention .
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Kelly is very astute and Presenting Percy is a very exciting Novice. I just think the price has been squeezed to the maximum already..6/1 for a horse that has to prove itself against it's peers let alone get to Cheltenham in one piece. I would like at least 10/1 at this stage.
Regarding NR he'll definitely run in the race and is a tough nut to crack whatever the going and Might Bite's best ever rating was this years Gold Cup. Backing all three at about 5/2 could be the way forward ? |
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Backing short priced horses nearly a year ahead for the Gold Cup is hazardous.
You only have to think back to last season and remember some of the extraordinary prices offered at stages of the season about the following: Thistlecrack - despite returning from a tendon injury and being beaten by Many Clouds in his last race, he was only around 5/1 before his reappearance. Yorkhill - despite Mullins stating no target, he was among the single figure horses in the autumn. Coney Island - the strangest of them all. Beating Adrien du Post, who ran himself into the ground, in a 3 horse race bought him briefly into single figures. Our Duke - around 7/1 before he'd reappeared. Killultagh Vic - Another to come into single figures, despite running in the Gold Cup with only three chases behind him, having returned from injury. In those three chases, he had fallen once and blundered badly at the last in another. Yes, this could sound like aftertiming but my point is that getting there is a challenge - only two of the above made it - and a great deal can happen throughout a season. Remarkably, these five horses that were all quoted at single figure odds for Britain's premier steeplechase managed a single victory over fences between them (excluding the race which brought Coney Island to the forefront of the betting), and most of them finished the season with their reputations diminished, if not shredded. (RIP Our Duke). While I'm a fan of Presenting Percy, the odds are not attractive. He reminds me a bit of Forgive n Forget in his hold-up tactics, efficient but unspectacular fencing style and abundant stamina. A fine horse but I'd want something more enticing to tempt me at this stage, particularly with the Big Two from last year such solid performers. |
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I was surprised how quick PP was last year and very impressed with his performance in truth. However, on good ground if Altior is fit he will win. If it's soft Native River is a tough nut to crack. PP best chance would be on very soft going but not sure he would quite have the stamina to see off a a horse like NR.
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I assume you don’t mean 2 Miller Altior Charwell?
Almost definitely he doesn’t go for the GC |
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I am convinced Presenting Percy is going for the Gold Cup
I am convinced he will be shorter than 6/1 on the day. Therein lies my case your lordships |
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You’ll get a run for your money if he’s fit to race Irish.
There’s no chance whatsoever he runs at the festival in anything but the GC. I personally like Might Bite at 13/2. I know he didn’t win this year but I thought that was a brilliant performance on heavy ground against a mud lover who stays all day in Native River. MB put it up to him all the way round and never flinched at all. He looked a matured horse and providing it’s not a desperately heavy track again (unlikely to be that bad ground two years on the bounce), I’d fancy him to go one better. Are you not worried about his trainers way of placing him for his prep Irish? It showed the class of Percy for him to win the RSA so convincingly against a good one in Monalee despite his prep race against Our Duke being over a stupidly shorter trip unnecessarily. I’m not sure I’d want my Gold Cup fancy going in on the back of a prep like that personally. |
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My objective is to lay Presenting Percy at a profit before the race.
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Horse is in great form and there is only one thing on the horizon !
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The horse will almost certainly be 4/1 on the day.
Why would anyone back him at 6/1 seven months out on that basis? |
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We will see what price it is going to be on the day.
PP is odds on to be there imvho. NR , MB ...... not so sure |
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you must be very close to the stable to have gained the information that PP is being aimed at the gold cup
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An RSA winner????? What else would they be aiming him at?
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Well I suppose that there is the hurdle prep race !
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Its that time of year when my thoughts start turning to the upcoming season and must admit Presenting Percy jumps out to me as the one to beat in the Gold Cup.
A clearcut RSA winner who was put away straight after March,is trained by a great man to get one spot on for the big day and will be ridden by a top jockey. As for the competition in the Gold Cup well as much as I respect the 1st and 2nd from this year that race must have took plenty out of them both and how many times do we see horses struggle to come back and repeat their form in the following years race. Plus I do think Native River had his ideal conditions and will be lucky to get those again and I'm just not sure Might Bite truly stays the 3m 2f trip and he will be 10 next March which cannot be seen as a positive. All in all the more I look at the 2019 Gold Cup the more Presenting Percy stands out.He will hopefully go there with a good prep under his belt and arrive as a dual Festival winner with no doubts over the trip or ground and just looks to have the perfect profile to be a Gold Cup winner. |
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It can't be certain that Davy Russell will ride PP in the Gold Cup if he gets there. That will depend on what,if anything, Elliott has for it.And Pat Kelly has a Turf Club hearing coming up,with potentially serious consequences hanging over him.
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Hes got the 2019 gold cup winner and the 2019 grand national winner and they are going to do him for cobalt ?
Hmmmmm ! |
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Irish - who are those in the know at Rossie ? Just wondering ? Do they know something not shown on the course yet.
He won a very average Sun Alliance where you could argue the best horse he's ever beaten was Monalee? His other win's include the De Plotting Shed, Barney Dwan and Augusta Kate. None would be considered anywhere near the level required. I think he will improve with racing but he's a bonkers 6/1 fav for the Gold Cup with the likes of Might Bite and Native River rated miles above him. He's clear 3rd though in my book of the horses that are most likely to line up in March. I'm not dismissing your post just interested what they said. |
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You wont go to a race meeting in the west without seeing a member of the kelly massif hibore. The horse was in great form galway race week, and there is only one target on the horizon . As for the jockey, he survived without gigginstown before and is 100% in the PP since the RSA ....... so if he does jump ship
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Well hes a good jumper,won the RSA well, and I imagine, an improver,so has to be one with a fair chance I would think.
I was very impressed with NR and MB though,the way they both demolished the Gold Cup field from the front,and I fully expect same again next March. May be ground that decides as some have said......my feeling is NR will always beat MB in a Gold Cup on any likely festival going. Just stays the distance better. |
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Good thread.
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I'll be going into the season with PP and SJ as my most likeliest GC winners........September 1st, jumps season just beginning to appear on the distant horizon
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Chapman interviews davy russell ..... Sept 27th sligo
M C = PP WAS YOUR BIG HORSE LAST SEASON AND YOU WILL ALREADY BE DREAMING OF WINNING A GOLD CUP ON HIM D R - not necessarily ,you are always hopeful and your asking me to step through without being too smart about it, he has to step up to the next grade now and hes in with a good handler, Pat Kelly has done a very good job with him, I am over confident that he will do the right thing for the horse,i have unders estimated PP thru his whole career, so if he keeps surprising me i will be happy.....luckily enough i was on the right one in the rsa, and you just dont know whats going to be... MC can you believe how well you travelled in the rsa ? DR ON the day i was very impressed by him, he didnt miss a beat, pat had him there in marvellous condition..... MC how much of a divide is there between that race and the gold cup NR and MB DR i suppose the handicapper would say maybe eighteen pounds MC i dont feel Mb Nr could fancy them giving you eighteen pounds DR MB gave away a huge lead as a novice, and g ot it back in that race, and he done very little wrong last year though he did improve quite a bit, once they take out his waywardness from year to year, i would say the right difference is in the teens roughly you know. |
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Tiss publicly stating NR is a stronger horse this year than he was last year
Doesnt see why he cant win it again....he thinks he will ! All he needs now is heavy at cheltenham again ! |
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Yep, has to have a fair chance of winning again......and if he is stronger this season,even more so.
Not sure hes ever ran on heavy,but plenty of form on going from good down to soft. Such a strong stayer and good jumper,has to be go close for the third year running. |
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Just had a look,and NR ran on heavy once got beat a fair way behind Blaklion at Wetherby as a 6yr old.
Won the 4 miler at the festival following year on good/soft,and finished close up 3rd on Good Ground in the following years Gold Cup. I think he will be fine on any likely festival going. Of course he might meet a better horse on the day next March,but imo the ground wont stop him winning. |
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he actual finished 2nd to minella rocco in the 4 miler but he jumps well,stays and is not ground dependent and with his style of running any mistake by hold up horses would leave them with a awful lot of ground to make up,should be fav for me
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I won't underestimate this horse again. Good luck.
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Sincere apologies, of course he was 2nd in the 4 miler......think I was up a bit too early this morning.
Thanks for correcting me Gazo. |
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Davy Russell knows the score with PP, if it had been better ground at Cheltenham he would have won the RSA by a furlong, the horse has summered well whereas the other fellah has bloated out. PP will go the hurdle route again probably and I can't see MD getting serious until after the weights are out.
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hibore
when summing up his achievements of last season you seemed to have forgotten his incredible performance when winning a fairyhouse handicap off 145 by 11 lengths without any effort, |
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He’d have to be able to do that with 2 stone extra if he’s going to challenge the principles in March. Interesting if they go for the Hennessy as he would have 10lbs in hand if he’s that good.
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Hennesey ???????
Hes only got one race in mind apart from the hurdle pre gold cup The handicapper says 18lb difference That wasnt his ground in the RSA Hes beaten some great irish horses but you chose to ignore that Dangerous route to take underestimating the irish |
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Great Irish Horses??!!!
I agree he has a chance if he improves as one would expect him to from his novice season. He has to improve a fair bit though to challenge NR and MB. Both those horses jump really well and get horses at it earlier than they would like. PP would have to improve a lot during the season,jump well on the day and then be able to get past them,not easy at all,especially getting past NR who stays all day. If you believe he will improve the required amount then the current prices could be tempting,but no way of knowing at this stage,so basically its guessing,which we all do of course,and its part of the fun,but when we do the price has to reflect the guessing involved. In this case I don't think it does |
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Why do you dismiss the Hennessy? It’s the most valuable and logical race to go for with a second season chaser who has improvement and Gold Cup assperations. Denman, Native River, Bobs worth in recent years.
If your contacts have told you he’s running in a Hurdle and then Gold Cup then he’s a 16/1 or 20/1 shot come March. He won’t improve a stone or experience running against his peers in his box. I think they are telling you porkies.  |
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Hibore personally I think PP is too short at the minute around 6s but where is the logic if he mixes prep hurdles & Chases he'll be 16s? That's abolsute nonsense...
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Just because the English horses followed the route of Hennessey King George then Cheltenham doesn't mean it has to be done. I agree with Irish that he's beat decent Irish horses especially Monalee with ease and he'll have a great chance in the Ryanair this year and also the fact Percy needs good ground to be seen at his best. The gold cup is a hard race but the only negative I'd say would be the price
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