Cheltenham Festival
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PRESENTING PERCY
PRESENTING PERCY
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So what's his best distance then - his best chance of winning or where he gives his best performances but may not win?
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 Good question!! For me its the best chance of winning. I think given a bit more time,when connections know more,the horse will have both,or at least get the chance to have both......best chance of winning and giving his best performances. |
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But for now his best chance of winning and his best performances are over 2 different trips. Ok!!
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Well yes, the formbook has his best rating at 3m over fences,and his 2 wins at around 2 and a halfm over fences.
Hes a horse just out of nov racing this season,they are running over different distances trying to find out about the horse, is how I see it. |
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I see it entirely differently.As with most horses, they run to more or less the same level whether the distance is 2m 4 or 800 odd yards further. The prestige distance is 3 miles so they will try him at that distance. If he comes up short of the very best at that distance, seeing as there is only room for so many at the top table, they will lower their sights a little and drop down to a distance where its easier to compete purely because the opposition isn't quite as strong.
So if he does fare better in a Ryanair than he would in a Gold Cup, it will be because they found the right opposition, not the right trip. |
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Ok, so for you its all about the opposition rather than distance.
So, if you were a bookie and you were pricing up Monalee in two races...Ryanair and Gold Cup,both races NRNB,and both races with exactly the same horses.......you would have both races with exactly the same prices for all horses? If so i would love to have a bet with you. |
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With most horses yes.Native River no but apart from one or 2 minor adjustments the others would be much the same price.
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Ok.
Currently NRNB you can get 7 Ryanair for Monalee,25 Gold Cup for Monalee. How do you think those prices have been determined? |
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I both hope and think he will go for the Ryanair however 25/1 with a run for the gold cup is a very fair price ,if he wins the Irish gold cup and connections decide to go for the gold cup he will be quite a bit shorter,if he fails to stay at the top level at leopardstown and they say Ryanair or even no Cheltenham which is unlikely then no damage done.
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The trainer of Monalee had been reported to say he'd try and convince the owner to run him in the Ryanair Chase; the trainer had also been reported to say he ran him in the wrong race at the last Festival.
In the RSA Monalee led 3 out, ridden and headed when mistake 2 out; just managed to finish infront of Elegant Escape who's an out-and-out-stayer who won the Welsh National over 3m 5f. I backed him for the JLT, but not the Ryanair this year because of Waiting Impatiently and Min. But he could win an egg-and-spoon race in Ireland over 3m though; Cotswold Chase or Gold Cup at Cheltenham - no way, in my opinion. |
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Obviously Monalee would have a better chance of winning the race with the least quality.That doesn't mean its his "preferred" distance.
My point,as I interpreted your 15.10 post, is to take a scenario that Monalee was in the Gold Cup field and at the last minute it was decided to run the race instead over the Ryanair distance.Apart from the odd exception such as a dour stayer like Native River, the odds on the others chances would remain much the same ,relative to each other. |
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My scenario was based on antepost prices.....eg prices now for March.
Not sure why the bookies are so differing in the price for Monalee NRNB for both races,but I suspect its because they think hes more likely to run in the Ryanair.......for whatever reason!! |
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Its very understandable really. The Gold Cup is a far better quality race than the Ryanair
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It is a better quality race, but then its perfectly understandable that some horses have a better chance of winning a race better suited to them.
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I happen to think Monalee is better suited to winning the Ryanair because hes more likely to produce his best,than he would be over 3 and a quarter miles in a Gold Cup.
It appears I am not the only one if that's true what his trainer said. |
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Trainers can be wrong as well. I can't think which trainer it was that constantly ran Sizing John over 2 miles.
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Yes,trainers can be wrong,especially with novice horses or those just out of novice company,but they are more likely to be right about their horses than we are.
In this case we have a horse that is being tried over 3m to see if it can be a 3 miler in good races and possible Gold Cup horse. We can all have our opinions,and its good for discussion on here, but to find out whose opinions turn out to be more accurate, we have to wait and see what connections decide. |
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You've lost me now budd. I have no problem, no issue at all, whatever route they want to go with Monalee. Those decisions are not for us but for the trainer to make.
My position is consistent - good horses are versatile and have more than one distance. All national hunt horses are stayers. Some stay further than others. It takes a stayer to get 2 miles. Speed doesn't come into it but a change of gear at the business end does help.You can have 20 horses racing over 4 miles, they might all have no stamina issues but only one can win. That's the one with the biggest engine. You seem hell-bent on putting each horse into a box with a label on it which will say 2 miler, 2 and a half miler or 3 miler,and then placing all these boxes into a neat little row. Un De Sceaux was a 2 miler not 2 and a half.Annie Power was a 2 miler not 3. Supersundae is a 3 miler not a 2 miler. Samcro is neither a hurdler nor a 2 miler(nor a 3 miler either!).Altior is an out and out 2 miler. Apples Jade is not a 2 miler.That's just a small sample from memory.The quality of opposition has never come into your argument until right now. I'm delighted you've finally seen the light. Nobody doubts that Monalee has a better chance of winning a Ryanair than a Gold Cup.That's obvious but it's because of the opposition and not the trip.When the Gold Cup is done and dusted there will be probably be 5 or 6 trainers kicking themselves,with the benefit of hindsight, for not running in the Ryanair instead.And if you have a Lord Windermere/ Nortons Coin type of GC result then some will be kicking themselves for not running. |
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Monalee is a 3 miler, the problem is that he's not a top class 3 miler, so his best chance is the Ryanair which is littered with the "not quite top class" brigade. He's need to make it a real test at the trip to give him his best chance, he wouldn't be for me though.
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I think all horse have an OPTIMUM distance.
That's the distance that will give them the best chance of achieving success. That's winning races at the highest level possible that their capabilities allow. UDS as an example: Irrespective of the opposition,i have always said hes best at 2 miles,and I will always say that. He has won the odd race or two at 2 and a half, and has never won a race at 3m. Hes won plenty over 2m. Annie Power won a Champion Hurdle(top level at 2m),yet could not beat More of That over 3m. As regards seeing the light..........Monalee has the best chance in the Ryanair because that imo will be his optimum distance. Quality of opposition will always count when discussing a horses chances in a race....of course it will,but imo the horse being run at a distance that is not his optimum will put that horse at a disadvantage before the race has started. |
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Coneygree,synchronised, denman, long run,bobs worth, Anibale fly,don poli, native river, lord windermere, on his own, all won or placed in recent gold cups. Not sure how many I would back to beat say cue card or uxizandre or vautour in a Ryan air
Don Cossack beaten in Ryan air with official comment not pace of front two in closing stages. Perhaps it is not me that is guilty of pigeon holing, perhaps we can be guilty of pigeon holing Ryanair and gold cup |
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Supersundae is a 3 miler not a 2 miler. Samcro is neither a hurdler nor a 2 miler(nor a 3 miler either!).Altior is an out and out 2 miler. Apples Jade is not a 2 miler.
Don't recall ever saying that about Supasundae,in fact watching his races I would suggest hes maybe best at 2 and a halfm ?,he has won top 2m races though,and none at 3m. Samcro has now been announced as unwell, so to be fair to the horse, Jurys back out for me. Apples Jade is all about how shes been campaigned, which was pretty clear in my posts if I remember correctly. Altior is one of the best 2m chasers I have ever seen,but his trainer seems to think he can step up and be successful,so I await that happening.....if it does. |
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Don cossack should have won the ryanair.He got a bad ride.
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firstimevisor 18 Jan 19 16:20
My point,as I interpreted your 15.10 post, is to take a scenario that Monalee was in the Gold Cup field and at the last minute it was decided to run the race instead over the Ryanair distance.Apart from the odd exception such as a dour stayer like Native River, the odds on the others chances would remain much the same ,relative to each other. Can I have 12/1 Road to Respect then please.  |
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Round and round and round we go! I totally agree regards optimum distance being where a horse has its best chance of winning. The difference between us is that you believe that to be a fixed distance where I believe the opposite. UDS is a classic example. The ultimate ridiculously consistent 170 chaser whether over 2m or 2 and a half.You say 2m is his optimum distance I say it doesn't matter, his optimum distance is simply to avoid Sprinter Sacre, Douvan(Pre-injury) or Altior to give himself the best chance of winning.
Cheltenham only comes around once a year,and the good horses tend to only run once that week. If the championship races were spread across the entire season we would see many champions at multiple distances. Annie Power was a great mare at all distances and yes she did stay.Don't blame the trip just because she didn't win. She was rated 165 entering the Stayers hurdle and ran to a mark of 164. She was rated 162 entering the Champion Hurdle and ran to a mark of 162. Denman would have easily won just about any Ryanair. Don Cossack,in the form he was in in his GC year would have won most too, but not that same year, as Vautour was that rare species who really was a superb 2m 4 specialist. Windermere,On His Own and Anibale Fly I wouldn't have been confident of ever winning again but they may have given Uxizandre a run for it somewhere |
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A horse's optimum distance is the distance that IT can manage to beat the highest calibre of horse at.
If it has a string of 1's next to his name at 3 miles against grade 2 horses but has not been able to beat the very best at that distance, but along the way he has beaten the best at 2.4 miles, then his optimum distance is 2.4 miles, it is all about the opposition, that is the guage to how we judge them by. |
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Of course we judge horses by their races,and yes that has to include the opposition they run against.
I have already intimated that earlier. I watch a horse in his/her races and then try and form an opinion based on that. I will also look at the formbook... distance and ground mainly,and yes......opposition. I don't look at ratings,never have. They are someones opinion....I prefer to use my opinion. I think if I punted relying mainly on ratings I would end up potless. I am of the opinion that Annie Power would have thrashed More of That over 2m,and the reason she could not do that when they met was because it was 3m.....simple as that,Could not care less what ratings were decided. UDS ran against Sprinter twice,and simply got beat by a better horse.Same with Altior,beaten by a better horse,although one could say age is playing a part now. Douvan....not sure about him beating UDS in their prime, possible of course but open to question. UDS has won a lot of money over the years,the majority in 2m races. Yes he won a Ryanair well....hes a class act,but he also lost one,and I have no doubt he would beat Balko over 2m. Lord Windermere,On His Own and Anibale Fly would have been distanced had they ran in Uxizandres Ryanair,no doubt in my mind,but don't think Uxizandre could have done that to them in a Gold Cup. |
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optimum distances ?
most of the horses I have will have a different optimum distance everyday. it depends on hundreds of variables, usually the weather decides whether or not they will come out of the stable ...if i'm lucky then there's feed, then there's the sun, then there's the ground, tics, colic, then there's me, if i,m happy they are bouncing if I ain't they pick it up. Sorry lads but trying to work out a horses optimum distance , you're better off looking for rocking horse sh1te ! |
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Visor spot on, recognises the inconsistent nature of training horses and the vagueness of the terms like stayer
As for this ... "The trainer of Monalee had been reported to say he'd try and convince the owner to run him in the Ryanair Chase; the trainer had also been reported to say he ran him in the wrong race at the last Festival." Never in a million years, HDB tells owners, end of ! He thought he run him in the wrong race because the ground was too heavy over 3 miles . After the RSA he thought 2 and half in heavy would have been better. ...and yes I know Claisse says it was good, good to soft in places, but if he mentioned the word heavy in a going desription hendos wouldnt turn up and it would be an irish 27-0 whitewash ..... |
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Irish
Firstly, apologies for hijacking your PP thread!! Secondly Do you know the reasoning behind the thinking re Monalee running in the wrong race? |
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Hdb very self critical, doesnt see it as weakness to say sorry or he got it wrong, very intelligent man and knows all about the vagueries of training horses. Would always put himself in front of the team. Very astute person.
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Re: Monalee. I was merely paraphrasing what I'd read and reported. For a trainer to say "he thought he ran Monalee in the wrong race" was clearly inferring by me that Monalee ought to have run in the JLT - only other option; the additional "because the ground was too heavy over 3 miles" is something I cannot recall. The horse had nothing left after jumping the 3rd last, and the RSA is 2f shorter than the Gold Cup distance. To paraphrase (again) Hendo prior to the Gold Cup regards Might Bite, the ground after the last fence was a concern as it was much softer and could be a slog up the hill.
Again "he'd try and convince connections to run him in the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup" was another paraphrasing which I'd inferred from the reported article. But he did allude to that not using the same words as I had. I'd be gobsmacked if Monalee can win a competitive Gd 1 over 3m here even at Kempton. The Gold Cup? Only by default, that's all I'll say. |
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Is the lack of Irish chasers running in England this year just due to the going or has the standard dropped? I expected Un De Sceaux to run today as second prize there is not too shabby but once again Mullins stays at home. Even Elliott is running very few this season, preferring to run 3 or more in races in Ireland.
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Ok Irish
You probably would not know the reasoning....fair enough,why should you really?? Has to one of two imo He thought Shattered Love and co were easier opposition? He thought Monalee had more chance of getting home in that ground at the lesser distance? |
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No Budd
Hdb defends his stable , they thought monalee was a certainty, well publicised. He reasoned what he reasoned before the event. Fact was ....after the event ....he reasoned differently. The reason was he was covering the advice of the staff as most big trainers do. He is a very clever man ...give him that ffs ! |
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Sageform ? Have you got stats to back that up.
We had a bad winter last year with floods everywhere and heavy ground everywhere. Could understand a few more going over for the g to s BUT THIS YEAR ..... fecking daffodils in the backyard middle of january |
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hoping one runs a big race in the Kinloch Brae tomorrow to promote his Gold Cup chances.
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not too loud lock up …...
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irishone
was there a void race at last seasons festival  |
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that will do nicely Irish another 1/2 mile stiffer track ideal gutsy effort today.
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