Cheltenham Festival
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I see 17 of the horses in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle have been given higher topspeed ratings than Penhill got for winning the Grade 1 stayers' hurdle. Form to be wary of I suspect.
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I was not taken with the victory of Penhill despite winning 1st time out back from an injury because he beat a non-true stayer in Supasundae on not conducive ground either; Sam Spinner did not show his true form, I believe, and Unowhatimeanharry is a back number now. The one I'm still unsure of and reluctant to ditch is Yanworth but that is not to say I was not disappointed with his run at Cheltenham; he also finished distressed which is a concern in itself. Notwithstanding, I'm hoping he shows up in the Aintree Stayers next month.
Until the Cheltenham target of Yanworth is known I'd not be backing him for the Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle, but, if sound, he'd be my bet especially if he shows up and credits himself well in the Aitree Stayers next month. |
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This has to be a wind-up.
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Imp, you just have to accept that you picked the wrong horse for the race and he isn't good enough. Beaten at 4 festivals now over all three normal trips on different ground each time. He's slow and can't jump properly. He might beat up small field weak opposition over here, but introduce some quality Irish and he's out of his depth
If Supasundae was a non stayer than Yanworth must be a non non stayer! Backers of Yanworth, Yorkhill and Finians Oscar, I advise you to look elsewhere as I don't fancy reading another 600 posts next year on these three. Autocue, I'd ignore speed ratings, the front two are very good. Put them in a Pertemps and see what happens. |
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'wellchief'
With due respect I've just as much right as any here to opine on horse racing as long as I'm not personally rude to others or behaving in an infantile manner; if you cannot stomach my post please put me on ignore as I shall be doing you that honour if you still have not grasped the idea of what a forum like this one is all about ie exchanging and sharing info with hurling personal insults. I do understand and have acknowledge from some time back some horse racing punters/supporters are rather old fashioned, antagonistic and cantankerous and not receptive to differing views. That's tough...grow up, accept it or sling your hook! Fyi I had already backed Penhill prior to knowing he'd been sidelined with an injury since his Albert Bartlett victory; I still won on the day,...again fyi! Yanworth, if you had not cottoned on, was a late confirmed entrant for the Stayers after several races over fences. Imagine you yourself in the situation...; he also finished distressed which he'd never done before. So until he does a Unowhatimeanharry at Aintree or his next race over hurdle (if) then I'd not dismissed him off-hand just yet. I'm sure you could allow me that concession as I'm betting my my money and not yours! As for Finian's Oscar he's another talented horse that had been messed about regarding his racing programme - surely I do not need to go into it...a due diligence for you, ok? As an aside, did you back Might Bite for the Gold Cup (8/1) and King George at 5/1 post his RSA victory? Did you also back him, Native River (after his Haydock victory), Sizing John and Our Duke for the Gold Cup? Did you get Samcro at 2/1 for any race? Footpad at 6/1 any race? Presenting Percy at 7/2 for the RSA? Altior at 3/1 post his foot predicament? Rememeber 'wellchief'...horse racing is about opinions,...and life is about enjoying, making mistakes and learning from them. And stop being a spoil sport and a control freak,...accept other contributors' opinions are just as valid and probably as informative as yours (maybe not, on 2nd thought). Otherwise, sling your hook! |
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Racing and the forum should be about opinion - you just never have one other than backing the favourite as your list above highlights.
If you had just honoured your promise to leave the forum if Found won the Arc we would all be much happier - I firmly believe.  |
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Hi Wellchief, the farce of a race wouldn't put me off Penhill as prior to the off he looked like he had it to do off a break and on heavy ground. It was a good achievement to win, he's proved his stamina before and being off the flat he would also have won on better ground. I wouldn't be so fussed with Supasundae though in a truly run race. I think Sam Spinner will have his day again as he was ridden to lose.
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One of the most pathetic stayers in terms of pace I think I have ever seen.
Unless I think Sam Spinner will do the same next year I would not entertain this years race as a good guide to next years. In time Penhill may prove to be the best stayer around and Supasundae the next best.......personally I have major doubts that is the case. |
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Impossible, if you can show me a single post that I have ever done on this forum where I have made personal insults, I'll be very grateful. Get over yourself, it's a bit of banter for christ sake.
Well done for backing Penhill - pat yourself on the back for me please. |
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The irony of ‘game of opinions’ is lost on Imp, because if you ever question his you get the kind of diatribe that WC has just had. He’s an utter clown. Keen to list his winners, but going on what he was spouting here pre-festival, he simply can’t have turned a profit.
I wouldn’t be too hasty in congratulating him on that Penhill bet either, he remembered it, conveniently, post-race. Prior to the race it was all Yanworth with a bit of Harry thrown in. |
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I wouldn't want to detract from Penhill's win myself, although it was a narrow margin he was an authoritative winner IMO, he travelled beautifully in both the AB and Stayers and was very strong at the finish. I think the harder they go the better it will be for him.
I wouldn't want to look past him for next year Both supasundae and might bight are going to have similar profiles going to next year where many are going to assume that on better ground they'll be the ones to beat, to me though I see two horses vulnerable at the trip and whether on better ground or not they'll be vulnerable, I won't be able to see past that weakness. |
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Then you might miss out on two winners Duffy.
Then again,you may be bang on mate. I am a tad on the fence re Might Bite,cannot decide if hes a true stayer in a Gold Cup. For me he has to burn them off during the race,basically win the race early as Denman did. He did that to all but one,but the problem he had and has is Native River. Without him he wins the race,stay or not stay. Native River stays all day and travels and jumps,plus has form on decent ground. Its going to be hard for MB to win a Gold Cup with NR around,but not impossible. I really hope next year will see decent ground....it will be fascinating finding out. As for Supasundae,on the fence with him as well!! |
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Wellchief- Don’t apologise to the plonker. You are a decent asset to the antepost forum unlike I123,
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If it was such a slow race, why wasnt the New One there in the end; he's won multiple times over 2m in the last few years. Also the freak Yanworth, favourite for last year's Champion Hurdle, got outpaced by 3 milers up the hill.
It might of been a slow race but imo the best horses came to the fore. Sam Spinner needed to prove his last Grade 1 wasn't a one off freak run, and he didn't prove that. He was beaten by horses who have consistently performed in Grade 1's over a couple of years. Take that one run out of Sam's form and he's well short. |
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The New One has won on heavy but has never looked happy on it. He didn't run his race, I've no idea why but trying a ten year old over 3 miles and after 36 runs over lesser distances looked like a last throw of the dice. You either like Yanworth or you don't. I don't and running him over fences four times was an unusual prep for a stayers' hurdle. Sam Spinner has a progressive profile visually and on RPRs and prior to Cheltenham had won six and finished second twice from nine runs and had won his Grade 1 in a race that was a proper contest for stayers unlike this one. My doubts about Sam Spinner going forward are less about the horse and more about the jockey. I think he should be back behind bars after that ride.
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Chief
Sam Spinner got a ride that virtually all the others in the race would have loved. And that was proved by letting him stay in front so long. He had to make it a staying gallop to stand any chance and for whatever reason the jockey got it all wrong. He had to draw the sting and make it a true test,he failed to do so. As for the best horses coming to the fore,yes thats of course possible,but personally i would prefer to see a true run 3m race involving the main contenders before passing judgement. The New One.....not a 3 miler,whatever the pace. Never ran over the distance,and probably wont again.....if they have any sense!! Yanworth,not really got that quick/stay balance in a sprint after two and three quarter miles, and dont seem the same horse that won top races over 2m. |
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Yanworth finished distressed in the Stayers; Sizing John finished "clinically abnormal" in the Lexus; Yorkhill never raised a gallop in the Dublin Chase.
I'm more concerned about the unexplained performances of high profile and talented horses running so way below their known form in big races this season. Could it all be down to the horses themselves? The ground? Their trainers? Or something else? I hope the above-mentioned 1st and 2nd run at Aintree and Punchestown respectively to maybe shed some light into their previous run. |
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Very occasionally a piece of information comes out of these festival podcasts.
Listening to one with Kealy there,mentioned that tony bloom the owner of penhill was desperate for a hospitality suite on the thursday,he offered to pay for all the guests food/drink and the box for the day. All this for a horse that had not been seen for a year. The stark facts are that this horse may just be very special.Sluiced up in the AB on good ground,on terrible ground this year he arguably won just as easy,pulling away at the business end.Fair comments re Sam,what I would say is that a stronger pace would have helped penhill,he got there way too soon, on the bridle for most of the journey. If he stays sound, 7 yr old,every chance we could be talking about a multiple stayers winner, lightly raced since his flat career,he still looks inexperienced at times,that natural combination of stamina and speed,mark him as a classy individual One of the performances of the festival.........fantastic horse. |
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Just observing that while Supasundae varies in price between bookies from 7s to 12s for next year's renewal, Betway are very much out on a limb at 22/1. Penhill does indeed look good, but surely as an e/w proposition this is temptingly huge?
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I think 22/1 for Supasundae is an extremely tempting offer considering his sterling performance on atrocious ground this year. The problem is will this bookie "behave professionally" when the punters win? From experience, almost a certainty will not; an id verification is a near certainty follows by a restriction/no promo/sp only after, if one has successfully challenged their stringent and untimely id verification request post a withdrawal request.
Betting with Betw** ought/should carry a health and financial warning. |
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Betsway will probably claim a palpable in March next year if it cops, even if they were this price for 6 months. Vile firm who you should stay well away from.
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Clearly an error by Betway. Supasundae now down to 12/1 with them, but still equalling the best price available.
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No betting for If The Cap Fits here; a stingy 20/1 with others.
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Race is there for the taking for Thistlecrack isn't it.
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Re: Thistlecrack. I think had connections done a reversal of Buveur D'Air's in 2016/17 season, he'd probably have won another Stayers' or two. But not sure about this season though; a bit long in the tooth, and after today's evidence eg jumping the last, I thought he'd have sufficient in reserve to hold on, on his hurdling form where he'd always finished well.
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penhill again
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Kate Harrington just suggested that Supasundae was likely going for the Champion Hurdle.
If they want to win a race at the Festival that looks a bonkers decision. It is all very well showing a bit of form in 5/6 runner races but he is essentially too slow to win even a poor Champion Hurdle. On better ground he would have every chance of winning a Stayers. Look forward to more 'gems' from Kate as her mother says nothing. Our Duke remains fresh in the mind. |
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Don't think it stays 3 well enough, they went slow last year giving it its best chance and it still didn't quite get home well enough, I think there isn't really a race at the festival for him.
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He didn't stay three miles on soft ground but was still good enough to be placed. On quicker ground he would have a much better chance. Quicker ground two miles and more chance of him being outpaced.
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Was really encouraged by the comeback runs of Bachasson and Darasso in their recent Punchestown race.
Both could go well in an open Stayers Hurdle as could Faugheen who has the figures to compete in a typical running of the race. Question marks perhaps exist after his heavy fall against Apples Jade, though was going well at the time he departed. |
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Bit alarmed and surprised to see Paisley Park entered on Saturday as I had believed the plan was straight to the Festival.
Having had three races does he really need another run? He has already proved himself good enough to take his chance. If he does go I hope it doesn't go pear-shaped. |
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I think we need to look squarely at the newcomers and i really like as does quite a few others Paisley Park. However, Black Op needs to improve for stepping up in trip and Midnight Shadow might not want to go much the further than he has gone before.
I'd be interested in reading what fellow forumites thoughts on these  Have to say i am very tempted to back them three at 12/1 now and before the cleeve tomorrow. One bet surely will end up toilet paper however looking at the market you can make a case that at least 30% of the bookmaker's books are non starters meaning value right there before anythings raced |
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differentdrum
Bit alarmed and surprised to see Paisley Park entered on Saturday as I had believed the plan was straight to the Festival. Having had three races does he really need another run? He has already proved himself good enough to take his chance. If he does go I hope it doesn't go pear-shaped. Fair points there. Have backed him for the Stayers,and hoping for a good run today. But do wonder re the points you made Drum. |
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It's a competitive race but you have to think if he doesn't win he isn't going to the win the Stayers. A hard race in winning might not be great news either. I don't think it is a gamble worth taking.
He isn't that strong in the market and the move appears to be for Aux Petit Soins who has the advantage of course form. |
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Well I always try to put faith in trainers and thinking they know whats best,but I am a tad concerned like yourself.
I just saw him at Ascot and was impressed,and thought current price was fair. |
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As punters we haven't got much option but I prefer trainers who have a plan and stick with it. Perhaps they have a question mark as to whether he is primarily a flat track horse? Blow out today and they will miss the Festival for Aintree/Punchestown?
The other worry for me is the jock who doesn't have a great Cheltenham record which I think has something to do with the constant hold-up tactics. |
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I'd be wary about putting faith in Emma Lavelle. Her horses rarely prove to be consistent in my experience. Hope it works out for you. Matt Chapman put Black Op in the same bracket as Sam Spinner this morning which is absolutely ludicrous. I was all for Sam Spinner last year but he's well and truly lost the plot this year and 14/1 is terrible value for a double squiggle horse. Black Op on the other hand just didn't take to fences. That doesn't make him a non-trier and it has happened to some great horses in the past like Morley Street and Big Buck's. I'm willing to go with him again but that brings me back to the start of my spiel as I find Tom George a bit hot and cold as well.
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As punters we haven't got much option but I prefer trainers who have a plan and stick with it
Me too Drum. Think autocue has a point re the trainer. Not at all sure re my bet to be honest. Oh well,lets see what happens. |
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If Paisley Park is as good as I hope it shouldn't matter who is training it.
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He is very good alright Autocue,very impressive there and routed them, delighted for the owner who seems such a lovely fella.
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