Cheltenham Festival
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Stayers' hurdle
Stayers' hurdle
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Hills 6/1 lasted 45 seconds!!!
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Honeysuckle aside, a horrible punting day but that was good.
Reminded me a little bit of Big Bucks, looking beaten and then coming back on the bridle. Hopefully, we can get a truly run race and the likes of Penhill won't do him for speed. Most of the field will be looking to reverse today's form and they ended up being beaten by daylight. This horse has had a proper campaign and it will be shame if he comes up short on the big day. |
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He proved best of the British but what does that really say. Black Op and Midnight Shadow didn’t stay, West Approach is way below Grade 1 standard, Wholestone, Sam Spinner, Lilrockafella and UnknowHarry are bang out of form and/or past their best and Agrapart is a total mudlark.
Hope for his owners sake he wins though. |
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Well done bud. When you think how he ran in the Albert Bartlett he's come on a ton this season and may improve again.
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Those in behind might not be the best but he has beaten them 12 lengths plus.
What exactly have Ireland got to offer, other than Penhill? It seems they would prefer Supasundae to be outpaced in a Champion Hurdle and they won't commit Apples Jade who in any case still hasn't won at Cheltenham and has been beating up Irish second raters. Penhill beat most of the 'rubbish' that Paisley Park beat, and by much smaller margins. |
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Ermmmmm Apple's Jade won the Mares Hurdle at the festival
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December 2018: Long Walk Hurdle, Ascot
1. Paisley Park 2. West Approach January 2019: Cleeve Hurdle, Cheltenham 1. Paisley Park 2. West Approach So imo Paisley Park showed us nothing new. All that happened was some bubbles burst for Black Op, Aux Ptits Soins and various other has-beens and never-wases. Good luck for March. |
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I think he beat a pile of poo today, the stayers hurdle is still crying out for a bit of class, if they went slow again (unlikely) I wouldn't look past Penhill winning again, off a proper test I still don't know but don't think it was seen today.
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At Ascot Paisley Park beat West Approach 2 lengths off levels.
Today at Cheltenham (where he was previously unproven) he gave West Approach 6lbs and beat him 12 lengths. I look forward to the handicapper confirming that he has 'shown us nothing new'. |
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very impressive an improving horse in a very week category took the 7/2 which is the biggest out there Penhill will need to be on top form to beat this.
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I think he was impressive today, and still opened to more improvement given his age. I'm kicking myself for procrastinating about taking 12/1 after his previous win; one that got away, and a watching brief for me at the Festival. Hope he wins for connections.
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yes 12s you could have laid off and been sat on a profit
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you can pull the opposition apart as much as you want, the horse won easily, and it looks a weak division this year. 3/1 almost feels like value
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Paisley park visually impressive after hitting a flat spot. I think race looks quite open and I'm interested to hear other people's view on bacardys at around 20/1. Value each way shot?
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Impressive again.
Hes a proper staying hurdler. The comparism made with Big Bucks I can see as well. Little flat spot,maybe a tad lazy? and then the power kicks in and hes away. Well pleased with that. |
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Bacardys would have to be nrnb,near enough last year to give him a chance of running well,the nov chases this season runs suggest an alternative target though did it last year?
Couldn't look beyond Paisley Park as well, race was run yesterday at a strong pace and ran away from them ears pricked,thought it was awesome. |
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Bacardy's would be my pick at the prices now, PP fair enough if you've got him at double figure odds but not at his current price for me.
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Paisley Park is not with a high profile trainer. If so, he'd have been much shorter after his previous win, and even now (3/1) Having missed 12/1 I'd have had 4/1 with 'billies' (changed from 5/1 just as I clicked to back) yesterday, but I declined. I think he's the one to beat with or without Penhill and the Irish contingent.
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I've never collected with 'Sporting***' only several close shaves in doubles and trebles the last of which was on Might Bite in the King George; just received a £10 freebie, and lumped it on Paisley Park and Too Darn Hot. Will I hit the bulls-eye (finally)?
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Hope so Imp!!
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I hope so too. Credit where credit is due they've been very kind and patient even the last two double and treble bets were £5 freebies. But I did tell them only after I'd won and collected prior to putting more bets with them - I just couldn't with them!
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@impossible123 -- Paisley Park is not with a high profile trainer. If so, he'd have been much shorter after his previous win
Yes, and that was the time to have backed him imo. All the Cleeve win told us was that the Long Walk was no fluke. As you say, in a higher-profile yard, the first race would have been enough, especially as that was a Grade 1 and the Cleeve a mere Grade 2. Will he win? He's the best of the British but did hit a flat spot. We are guessing about Penhill but aside from him, Ireland looks to have no star. |
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He wins if he reproduces that run. I suppose that's the question.
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Can't believe Faugheen has barely been given a mention on this thread. He could still line up in the Champion Hurdle in March but if he does go for the Stayers then I can't see what should beat him.
The Punchestown Stayers last season was the best 3 mile hurdle race run all year. He beat Penhill by 13 lengths. He beat Identity Thief, the Aintree Stayers winner, by 30 lengths. He could beat this lot with one leg tied up |
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Faugheen is an 11 year-old. He has been beaten on his two starts since, taking a crashing fall last time. Personally, I think Apple's Jade would have beaten him by daylight.
You didn't mention Shaneshill which drags the Punchestown form down. I suspect the winner was flattered by the margin. Throughout his career he has operated best when let loose on the front end. Far more difficult to dictate at the Cheltenham Festival than at Punchestown. He will be doing well to place. |
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Drags the form down - why? Shaneshill was a good horse at his best and he was at or near his very best that day. Penhill had won the Stayers and would have been a comfortable winner again were it not for Faugheen. And he was having only his second race of the season which blows out the over-the-top theory. It was Penhill who was flattered by the 13 length margin.
As for the race at leopardstown the last day, we have no idea what was going to happen but he hadn't been asked any question at the time of the fall and was travelling every bit as well as AJ at that point. He may be 11 but he did show twice last season that he is still capable of running to 170+ |
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Let's hope the fall hasn't left anything on him, would be great to see him do well.
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I aint mentioned him cos I don't think hes good enough now to win these type of races.
Hes 11 years old whose had a fair few setbacks with injuries. To be honest I can see him retiring before he wins another race of note. Would be quiet happy to be proved wrong though. |
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Well you only need to go back to the end of April when he produced the best hurdling performance of the entire jumps season to win a race of this type.Yes he's 11 and he's had more than his share of setbacks but the 11 year old Faugheen is still one of the very best around when he's 100% and, looking at how he was traveling before the fall 2 out last time, he's still a force at this level.
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I am well aware of what he did in April.
I don't expect him to be able to repeat that another year on(almost). He cannot muck it at CH level now that's why hes been stepped up,and I don't believe he can muck it at the top level at 3m either. If he does fair enough,be great to see it,i just don't think we will. |
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So what do supporters of Penhill make of the Faugheen factor.
Strictly on the formbook Faugheen beats Penhill. If he can run as he did in April,hes at least 2nd fav and value at 12/1. Maybe I should do a quick about turn,back Faugheen at 12/1.  Got the race by the b&lls then. |
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Faugheen: Was the Punchestown race a truly run race as he was gifted a soft lead? Also, Mullins had 7 out of 11 runners in that race; his run behind Apple's Jade despite falling two out and still in contention (2 lengths behind) I do not believe he'd have won or been closer if he'd not fallen - he was already asked by Walsh to get closer just prior to falling, I believe.
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Penhill has a shin problem
Might not even get there |
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If that was the case I am a bit surprised that bookmakers haven't dangled more of a carrot. He has actually shortened in a few places which might be Paisley Park backers covering themselves.
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I think Faugheen will be saved punchestown, it would be an easier race for him to boss, and give more time after that fall
not sure this race would be fair on him |
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Penhill is one of the hardest to get right , in willies stable, never has been a great jumper.
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He did take a pearler of a fall but it looks like he may run in the Irish Champion on Saturday so they must be happy enough with him again.If so then it wouldn't surprise me at all if he wins it.
He's not a horse who has to make the running but he certainly has the pace to do it if that's how they want him ridden - he won a Champion Hurdle from the front. Just a tad curious as to how much,or at what rate, buddeliea believes these horses deteriorate.He could beat the reigning Stayers Hurdle champion, and current ante-post favourite, with a stone in hand at the end of April but now can't muck it at Grade 1 level - because he's a year older?? Native River hasn't mucked it at the top level since mid March last year yet he cannot see beyond him for the Gold Cup! |
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Just watching the Punchestown race again I think I didn't really appreciate what Faugheen did in that race, true he got his own way but he had practically the whole field cooked a long way from home and in the end had dragged the finish out of Penhill, that was his first run over the trip.
I also think that AJ would have beaten him but so what!!! there'd be no shame in getting beat by her, she's better than anything in the Stayers race, and if he had managed to beat her he should really be fav. He's a massive price considering he has shown us he stays the trip, the market is riddled with horses that won't run or won't stay and with him it could be another case of a horse bringing top class ability at a shorter trip to the stayers division and simply out classing them. Solwhit and Nichols Canyon both did this but were still unproven at the trip going into the race, Faugheen has already proved himself over the trip and did so with a swagger...on reflection he's a massive price! |