Cheltenham Festival
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Stayers' hurdle
Stayers' hurdle
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Visor
We are talking about a horse that went from Champion Hurdles to staying races,that tells you they think he cannot muck it at top of the 2m division anymore. The difference between 10 and 11 can be quiet significant imo.I think that will prove too much(along with his problems)to be competitive in the stayers. On this I realise I COULD be wrong,its my opinion. Also as I have said many a time on various threads,be wary of form after Cheltenham,for the following season. Horses being trained for Chelt can be below par after,and in Penhills case the bounce factor could have played a part. As for Native River,well we all know his strengths,and that aint 3m at Haydock and Kempton.Plus he aint 11. Mind you I can see past him as hes not the only one I am backing. Theres a couple of others at nice prices. |
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Somerset Sam
As has been pointed out he's capable of running to 165+ consistently. That would be good enough to win this May be good enough!! The current fav is young still, and improving a fair bit if his last two runs are anything to go by!! Racing post certainly impressed. |
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Faugheen doesn't have to lead but I suspect he would have to if he were to have any chance of winning. The vast majority of his races have been making the running. They have done that for a reason. It would be much easier on the horse if he were held up. He will not get an easy lead in a Stayers Hurdle.
I think much of this discussion is about price. Paisley Park is a much more likely winner but the price now reflects that position. He is on an upward curve, however you want to dress it up Faugheen isn't. If Faugheen were 2/1 he would be ripped to pieces. Sometimes if you miss a price on a horse it is best just to accept it and not try and convince yourself that you haven't missed the boat. This might be one of those times. |
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Duffy
I also think that AJ would have beaten him but so what!!! there'd be no shame in getting beat by her, she's better than anything in the Stayers race With respect mate, that's an opinion, and no way of knowing if she would be better than Paisley Park in this years stayers. Anyway lets hope she gets the chance to prove one way or the other, and connections don't go Mares with her....which they probably will. |
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Faugheen has no stamina limitations, which is why he so often makes the running over 2 miles. If they are going fast enough he can drop in, if not he can set the pace but he's not a horse who needs a "soft" lead.
They are more than happy to continue campaigning Faugheen at Grade 1 level, at both 2m and 3m. That tells you that they still believe he CAN muck it at Grade 1 level does it not.And seeing as he still held every chance when falling last time,it is an opinion that is justified. Its just nonsense dismissing Punchestown form. The jumps season doesn't start and finish between the Tuesday and Friday of a week in mid March. Penhill certainly did not bounce at Punchestown. If anything he improved from Cheltenham. |
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Sometimes Visor, I think you have a problem reading!!
I never said I was dismissing Punchestown form. I said be wary of form after Cheltenham for the following season. Yes sometimes it holds up, but it can also not hold up. Penhill had his 1st run after a long lay off at Cheltenham and won the Stayers. He then got well beat. Therefore I concluded that he COULD have bounced. Maybe though Faugheen was/is simply so much better than Penhill? If so then the bookies have the prices wrong,unless they are factoring in Age? This is not an exact science this sport,it involves animals that cannot tell us!! and we will all be right or wrong at times. That's why we bet againsr each other on here and why we can disagree. As for Faugheen,if they thought he could still have a serious chance in the Champion Hurdle why would they put him in Stayers races?? Imo its because they know he aint good enough at the age of 11. At 3m I recognise he COULD still muck it, I just don't think he will. |
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Just had another look at Faugheen.
Since his last Grade 1 victory at 2m in Nov17 aged 9, he has run in four 2m races. Pulled up,then beaten by Supasundae,thrashed by BDair, Melon and Mick Jazz in the CH,and comfortably beaten by Sharjah in between his two 3m races.. After the thrashing by BDair,he was stepped up to 3m and thrashed Penhill, and after the Sharjah defeat, he was running well behind AJ over 3m when falling. During his 2m career from the Champion Hurdle he won he never once had a race further than 2m. All points to me like they thought after BDair,that they could not win another Champion Hurdle so give 3m a go. Nowt wrong with that,Hardy did that and so has Jezki, and I think Brave Inca might have done? He could win the Stayers if he can reproduce that Punch run,but almost a year on at the age of 11 and his problems,i don't think he will. |
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I can understand the fear before the Punchestown race that Penhill COULD bounce, but we clearly saw in the race itself that he did not.
Faugheen made a spectacular comeback after 2 years off in the Morgiana. He was still a serious force at 2 miles then. He actually did bounce next time.His second to Supasundae was disappointing but he did have the champion Hurdle 2nd and 3rd behind him so with hindsight it wasn't a bad run. His run in the Champion was poor.With many horses who have been sidelined for long periods, they can be inconsistent when they return. Faugheen bounced right back at Punchestown and had he been in that kind of form at Cheltenham he would have run a huge race. I wouldn't write him off at 2 miles yet |
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I mentioned earlier about Solwhit and Nichols Canyon and it was the same with Faugheen in Ireland, classy horses at a lesser distance staying further and being simply too good, if these types of horses could speak they'd be telling us "wow, it's a bit easier running against this mob, they're all a lot slower than what I'm usually used to "
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Yes Duffy, kind of why I am saying hes gone at the top level at 2m(imo)and is running better races at 3m, or was last season.
Visor I think by campaigning him in 3m races,its in their minds that he is not a Champion Hurdler anymore. Stepping up after his last Champion Hurdle,having never done it before, says that to me. I hope you have nice prices on Faugheen for the Stayers. |
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Now taken out of the Irish Champion on Saturday, so it could be that fall affected him more than first thought.
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That's a shame.
Lets hope hes ok. |
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Penhill has won at Cheltenham twice and was then beaten at Punchestown twice. He is trained to peak for one race a year. And there is no way he improved from Cheltenham last year when you see that the regressing Shaneshill was less then 5l away in third. Take that Punchestown form with a huge pinch of salt. imo
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Can't agree Maelduin. He was beaten but he was second twice and he was 2-1 both times and I would argue that the Punchestown races were better quality races.
Shaneshill is a 3 time Cheltenham festival runner-up. He is now retired and did lose his form but he was on-song that day and Mullins must have felt he was still capable or he wouldn't have run him. Identity Thief was 4th and Bapaume 5th. The form was solid. Its debateable whether Penhill actually improved from Cheltenham to Punchestown but there are formlines(such as Monalee) to suggest he certainly didn't regress. No two races will ever turn out exactly as the ratings predict but it will take some convincing to say Penhill was below par at Punchestown in either year. |
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Personally I would say to win the Stayers at Cheltenham,and then to get thrashed in his next race would normally suggest a regression.
I can certainly see the point Maelduin makes in being trained to peak for one race as regards Penhill. He also would not be the 1st horse to run below par after running well at Cheltenham. |
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Looking at the opposition in both races again,i don't think either race was that high in quality to be honest.
I may be that Penhill run similar races and that simply Faugheen is just much better than him. All about opinions and I can see more than one argument here. |
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So if he won in Cheltenham but he got thrashed into second in Punchestown by a different opponent then he must have regressed?
On a line through Wholestone,a good yardstick, there was nothing between Penhill and Identity Thief. They had both beaten Wholestone by 5 lengths last time out The big 3 filled 3 of the first 4 places. Penhill beat everything else easier than he had at Cheltenham but was no match for Faugheen. Not that hard to understand really. Penhills and Identity Thiefs come along every year but Faugheens do not. Identity Thief was the one who ran below par, but he had run in Aintree as well so that was kind of understandable.And you are right - he won't be the first to run below par after running at Cheltenham. But then, so many run below par before Cheltenham too not to even mention how many run below par at Cheltenham itself. |
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No I said I would think normally its a regression. Not must be.
I also went on to say that he may have run similar races and that Faugheen is just a better horse than Penhill. Both are possible scenarios,as is Maelduins point about being trained to peak for one race. Some horses maintain that form going into Aintree/Punchestown, some don't. That is well known and has been ever since I know. As I said.....this sport is not an exact science, and we all need to recognise we may not get it right sometimes. Occasionally would be nice  |
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"Shaneshill is a 3 time Cheltenham festival runner-up. He is now retired and did lose his form but he was on-song that day and Mullins must have felt he was still capable or he wouldn't have run him."
WPM must have felt he was still capable if he ran him at Leopardstown at Christmas right? Well he was beaten out of sight. I really don't get that logic. Seriously if your interpretation of the Punchestown race form is true then Faugheen ran close to his highest mark ever. I'm not buying that given his issues. IMO Penhill was way below par at Punchestown, due to his prior excursions, and Faugheen was in much better shape as he was given a relatively easier race at Cheltenham once Ruby knew he couldn't win. Let's hope we all get to test our theories come March. Neither of them will beat T̶h̶i̶s̶t̶l̶e̶c̶r̶a̶c̶k̶ Paisley Park though. GL |
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Amazed that Supasundae would be going the Champion Hurdle route on usual Cheltenham ground. He would be about 6/1 for a Stayers, twice that and more for a Champion Hurdle. As expected he was thoroughly outpaced today.
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Nice boost for Paisley Park today
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Samcro is only a possibility, but will he? Backend of the season after a lung-infection, and up-in-trip to 3m from 2m with Aintree and Punchestown just around the corner? Nevertheless, this has caused a slight drift in price (only here) for Paisley Park; 3.25 to 3.65, manipulation?
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If Samcro turned up in this I'd be backing him for sure.
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Would be shocked if Samcro turned up in this with the "deep lung infection" news. I'm sure they'll give him a decent break and bring him back for Punchestown and then send him over fences next season.
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Blimey Duffy.....you sure??
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Absolutely budd,and what's more I'd anticipated a weight of money for him, I'm actually more of a fan of his now through his travails this season than I was going into it, he's shown to be I think that he's more of a stayer than I actually thought he was and to that end the way he has been able to travel through his races before getting outpaced is a really big credit to him if he is indeed a stayer.
I don't know what to make of this lung infection and a deep one at that, how long had he had it? all season? or just after his last run? does a deep lung infection allow you to travel like a dream through 3/4 of a race? In the days where as we know trainers are ultra ultra cautious and with this horse who they still hold in the highest regard for the horse to be considered a possible runner tells me all I need to know about his "health" for sure. Over 3 miles at last he'll travel with that power and hopefully simply out class them. |
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The max Samcro had run over hurdles was 20f when in pink-health; 3m back after a long illness? I doubt that very much myself; Aintree or Punchestown at best, I believe.
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Fair enough Duffy.
The build up to Cheltenham hes had puts me right off to be honest. Don't mind so much the races hes ran in,which may not have suited him in hindsight and he is in fact a stayer(also still have doubts on that),its the lack of recent run and obvious health problems. I think it unlikely he will run anyway mate. |
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Penhill ruled out of the festival.
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Now Samcro going for a big walk tonight. Announced as non runner tomorrow?
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Maybe a coincidence but yesterday Betway sent out an enchanced double penhill and Something I didn’t get the name of,a couple of hours before the news of penhill was made public.
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15/8 non runner no bet on Paisley Park is surely good value now.
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Emma laville
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West Approach 33/1 each way? The race could really could up.
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irishone
28 Jan 19 21:15 Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 40,665 | Blogger: irishone's blog Penhill has a shin problem Might not even get there Was told this weeks ago, cant understand the mentality of Bloom, willie knew this months ago, but a last minute decision can only help the bookies …..why why why ? |
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Willie Mullins
Headline racing post February 21st penhill coming along nicely for defence of his crown |
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did you read that article past the headline ?
"He went away yesterday" but doesn't say where to. "I hope we can get him there" "Every morning you're looking at him to make sure that he's all right" "To me, he was never going to have a run before Cheltenham" "You'd rather get runs into them - but what's the point in running in Punchestown or Leopardstown and finding out you can't get him to Cheltenham?" It was all there between the lines . I bet Willie read that, turned people contacted TB and as a result of the conversations that took place the horse was withdrawn. |
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*turned purple not turned people ...lol
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non runner
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Samcro is taking a walk in the market, but Faugheen's been backed,...seriously?
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