Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 228 comments are related to the topic:
Stayers' hurdle
Stayers' hurdle
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 228
|
By:
As Ruby Walsh said earlier, they will run where they think will win, long way to go yet.
|
|
By:
Comparison with Bdd and Ap. ?
Both fall at the final.hurdle Jumping the shadow |
|
By:
Connections of one horse would have learnt an awful lot in the cleeve today. It has almost trebled in price. I feel sure knowing how the owners feel it was being nursed round. Expect a much bolder showing in March.
|
|
By:
Oh,PP is a class act alright,a proper staying hurdler,one of the best I've seen.
I think one race he thrashed the field,but all the others since he became this prolific staying hurdler he's won by fairly small margins. So I don't worry too much of horses that finish fairly close to him. I am a tad concerned re BDD though,enough to put her in a couple of nice bets I have that have PP in them,just to cover. My feeling is that PP will win the stayers with or without BDD,but she may prove me wrong. It would add much intrigue to the race if she runs. Wonder if connections will go for it. Right now the Mares more likely I would think,and odds suggest that,but things can happen that could change that. |
|
By:
Yes,MS would have learnt a lot for sure.
|
|
By:
I always take what trainers say about mares with a little pinch of salt just like I do with Coolmore and colts.
|
|
By:
Paisley Park supporters will be confident come what may, but could do with Honeysuckle hosing up in the Irish Champion.
|
|
By:
Yes they would be confudent,he's the best stayer around and proven to be.
I ant seen anything from BDD or any other horse that would have me worried if I was large on PP. |
|
By:
What we saw from BDD the other day, all be it through the fog would have me worried, she absolutely destroyed a field every bit as good as PP had faced and did it on the bridle, she is a highly classy mare and the truth is that we're still don't quite know where her ceiling is, she'd be getting the 7lbs in the stayers that would actually put her ahead on the figures.
She's also versatile and as appearing to get the 3 miles well is also highly versatile, as irishone has said she could mess around with the pace and use her pace at a shorter trip to take this race away from PP. It was a slow race yesterday which didn't suit PP, you had a 140 horse beat by not very much, (and this after him being workmanlike against Thistlecrack and the season being messed about somewhat after the Ascot withdrawal) it highlights a potential flaw in the fav in a false run race. However talk of slow run races to get the fav beat may well be doing BDD a disservice, she may be capable of taking this race how it comes and just be too good, she's like AP in as much as she probably wouldn't be out of place in a CH but she, unlike AP is a proven stayer too. She has to be viewed as a big danger to all in the race IMO and certainly PP's current price is unappealing with her lurking. |
|
By:
BDD looked impressive beating Penhill (a smidgeon of his past) by a distance; Apple's Jade did not run her race (and pulled-up); Killutagh Vic (a different horse post Walsh's win at all cost behaviour); Death Duty had his 1st race after nearly 2 years on the side line. Thus I'd not consider her win as "absolutely destroyed a field every bit as good as PP had faced". However, her win (receiving 4lbs) in France beating Bapaume just under 10l was very credible.
PP has always produced a little bit more when asked to; he'd met the best in his division and beaten them convincingly eg Stayers. And, this season he's shown he'd raced up with the pace, and quicken too if necessary at the business end to win his races. The only difference between PP and BDD is their trainer ie a lesser known (PP) whereas the other (BDD) is high profile. Thistlecrack was no slouch over hurdles; a very good champion stayer. I believe he'd have been champion stayer for at least another year had connections not pursued their Gold Cup dream with him. But, as always horse racing is mainly about opinions. As such, I'd side with PP as he's proven despite having to concede 7lbs to BDD, if Mullins is sporting and game. |
|
By:
Blimey Duffy she is good no doubt but I think you are getting a little carried away. It’s bonkers to say the field was as good as the cleeve. The runner up hasn’t finished within 20 lengths of a horse since April 18 when he got beat 13 lengths. The 3rd home hasn’t finished within 25 lengths of a horse since may 19 and the 4th home hasn’t run since dec 17. The fact is she beat declining and horrendously out of form horses very easily. Can’t we just leave it that she is a lovely mare who has her chance before we put yet another horse on this almighty pedastool.
|
|
By:
I'm not putting her on a pedastool, I've stated things that we know about her and have wondered about how good she actually is.
I'll accept that on reflection she beat a mix of horses who've seen better days and ones that are in decline having said that those horses have a value and there is a margin of defeat that a horse could impose on them that makes the performance impressive and on her first run of the season I think she did that. What about the strength of the Cleeve form then, the 2nd favourite ran no race whatsoever so we'll excuse him, the 2nd is only now showing some promise back over hurdles after a failed chasing campaign but having said that if ridden slightly differently may have prevailed yesterday. The 3rd horse was last seen trying to qualify for the Pertemps Final after, again another failed chase campaign and generally disappointing. The 4th is your archetypal plucky decent handicapper who will always try his best but is limited at the higher levels. Then you've got a horse that has done nothing since Cheltenham and Punchestown 2 years ago, next is L'ami Serge, well, that about covers him and finally there is another very good handicapper but one who disappointed twice this season and was poor yesterday. More so than all of that though it is quite telling if you take the time to look back at last years Cleeve where PP was much more impressive and comparing the two highlights a vulnerability that he has if the race is not run at anything other than a real test particularly if there is a classy opponent in there with relative pace. I've watched both races side by side and as you can see from the times they were way slower this year but they were steady throughout the race, last year PP came off the bridle a long way out which is concerning on the eye but is actually a good thing as it shows the test to which the horses were encountering, they were miles clear on comparison at all points of the race compared to this year. He then kicks in with stamina coming in to play whilst the others die and he was an easy winner in a race that was very much run to suit. This year he was on the bridle until turning in, visually encouraging you may think but not really because it tells you the pace hasn't been strong enough to bring his greatest asset into play,stamina!, he got away with it yesterday because SB didn't go quite slow enough as there was still a little of the race left when his relative pace advantage finally expired and his lack of stamina saw him beat. There is a real concern of a slow pace this year because It's very possible that SB connections would have learned a lot from yesterday for sure and if allowed to lead on the big day will turn it into a right dawdle, even more so than yesterday so as to best be able to deploy their capabilities at a shorter trip and take PP's strength away, this of course would suit BDD too, who is probably far more versatile too. PP is a short priced favourite and has been all along but I think he has a vulnerability that really shouldn't be there relative to the price and it's all about price, he's a wonderful horse to wait for I/R because you can get the key question of the pace of the race answered in plenty of time without his price being negatively affected whichever way you play him. |
|
By:
I am of the opinion
that the Cleese will produce at Least the first two on March and possibly top 3. I would not be under estimating If the cap fits,that's for sure. Where I agree with Duffy,is that I am unsure as to exactly how good BDD is, but I do know how good those she beat up the other day are,and they are miles away from a stayers hurdle now. I hope BDD turns up,but I fear she won't ,and will be in the Mares again. Whatever Honeysuckle does imo won't change that,my feeling is she ain't CH class,but admit next week could prove me wrong of course. |
|
By:
Re PP,to me he was as impressive as he always is on Saturday.
Jumped and travelled really well,came to win his race and ran all the way to the line. Pretty much perfect. Hes so versatile,and can win whatever the pace of the race,although i do take the fast paced angle as to why he may win by a wider margin. As i have said, he normally wins by between a length and 3, and rarely by more. To me hes as bombproof as you can get in this game, but of course any horse is vulnerable if a horse comes along that is simply better!! I wonder if that will happen sometime soon? I dont think so myself. |
|
By:
Agreed and accepted no pedastool. Essentially your point is PP is vulnerable to a slow run race. I am not sure how much slower it can get than Saturday but you obviously think there is plenty of room to go slower yet. I remember all the plots and schemes to try and get big bucks beat. This is starting to remind me of that. I know this wasn’t your intention but your and others posts may ironically be the biggest compliment of all to PP. does this horse have a vulnerability and how can connections of other horses get him beat. Only serious race horses earn this kind of scrutiny and attention.
Is he unbeatable of course not. The nrnb prices have him as only fractionally more likely to win than get beat. So the price factors in a vulnerability. If I was to take him on I would want to pay a lot less to do so than I would have to with BDD. When I watched the Cleeve in running I told myself If ever PP was vulnerable it is now. In running I had it evens the two SB and PP. clearly it couldn’t have been worse for itcf in running. After the race my immediate reaction was last years PP might have lost today. This years model has a few more clubs in his bag. |
|
By:
Apologies did it to me again
Does BDD add intrigue, absolutely (though I think she will run in mares)Could SB improve like many do from there first run over 3m, absolutely. Will itcf connections have learnt from the day, massively (as long as owners don’t play better on flat track card to avoid the festival). Could there still be novice chase interest last minute yes. Could ci be a joker in the pack yes. All these possibilities make it a potentially fascinating renewal. But as for PP I am convinced he is a better horse than last year and has become harder to beat. |
|
By:
BDD is the x factor and adds intrigue, we don't know just how good she is, I think she's very good and will provide a much stiffer task for the favourite than anything he has faced so far, I'm not necessarily of the opinion that a way has to be found to get PP beat as I said earlier that talk of slow run races to get the fav beat may well be doing BDD a disservice, she may be capable of taking this race how it comes and just be too good. I disagree that PP is bombproof though because he would be vulnerable to a slow run race, something like what we got a couple of year ago would give him a problem and he'd need a decent sand wedge for that particular trap.
|
|
By:
I see PPowers are sponsoring the race
Not going NRNB  |
|
By:
i understand ..... you’d certainly want a horse that’s 5-2 for a festival race to have a good chance of winning it.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
You certainly would!!
|
|
By:
Looks like itcf straight to Aintree - reason given avoiding PP. I am sure owners needed very little excuse. I know many will have written him off anyway. For me a real shame as don’t think anything went right Saturday and still think he could have run a big race.
|
|
By:
Oh I know you disagree Duffy, I seem to recall us disagreeing last year in the build up re PP.
Maybe you will be correct this year. He's wining races off slow and quicker pace,simply because he's the best around and proved to be. He's not bombproof if BDD is better than him,or indeed any other horse,but as far as the pace of the race,no problem for him. As Miltons said,and I think he's right after further thought......he's harder to beat now. |
|
By:
Bl00dy hell,that's bad news for his backers,and for the race.
I was watching him closely on Saturday and he was unlucky in running round the bend,had his ground taken and shuffled back a bit,and then running on well up the hill. Maybe connections did not need much of an excuse to dodge Cheltenham. . |
|
By:
buddeliea 27 Jan 20 16:50
Oh I know you disagree Duffy, I seem to recall us disagreeing last year in the build up re PP. Maybe you will be correct this year. Ohh you b1tch  |
|
By:
Ha ha, sorry mate,I really did not mean it that way.
|
|
By:
Quite alright.
 |
|
By:
After Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle, I’ve unusually found another favourite for the festival!
For what it’s worth - Interesting quote from Ruby with regards to BDD that the race fell apart and he gave Penhill as the example of being the same distance behind BDD as he was in the race before against Apples Jade, meaning AJ just didn’t run her race. For what it’s worth I don’t think you can really take anything Ruby says seriously. His still involved with the Mullins yard and is therefore protecting the yard with various sound bite angles. Very interesting though that BDD did that off level weights and without a mares allowance. |
|
By:
If we get desperate ground and a fast pace, I think TOBEFAIR is overpriced. Currently 66/1 (b365) and 25/1 (w/o Paisley Park).
Was only 6 lengths behind in the Cleeve and could be some value. Will be staying on when others cried enough. |