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Autocue
22 Mar 18 16:01
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Date Joined: 13 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 1,060 | Blogger: Autocue's blog
I see 17 of the horses in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle have been given higher topspeed ratings than Penhill got for winning the Grade 1 stayers' hurdle. Form to be wary of I suspect.
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Report Ramruma January 28, 2019 9:21 AM GMT
@impossible123 -- Paisley Park is not with a high profile trainer. If so, he'd have been much shorter after his previous win

Yes, and that was the time to have backed him imo. All the Cleeve win told us was that the Long Walk was no fluke. As you say, in a higher-profile yard, the first race would have been enough, especially as that was a Grade 1 and the Cleeve a mere Grade 2.

Will he win? He's the best of the British but did hit a flat spot. We are guessing about Penhill but aside from him, Ireland looks to have no star.
Report Autocue January 28, 2019 10:13 AM GMT
He wins if he reproduces that run. I suppose that's the question.
Report firstimevisor January 28, 2019 2:25 PM GMT
Can't believe Faugheen has barely been given a mention on this thread. He could still line up in the Champion Hurdle in March but if he does go for the Stayers then I can't see what should beat him.

The Punchestown Stayers last season was the best 3 mile hurdle race run all year. He beat Penhill by 13 lengths. He beat Identity Thief, the Aintree Stayers winner, by 30 lengths. He could beat this lot with one leg tied up
Report Somerset Sam January 28, 2019 2:35 PM GMT

Jan 28, 2019 -- 2:25PM, firstimevisor wrote:


Can't believe Faugheen has barely been given a mention on this thread. He could still line up in the Champion Hurdle in March but if he does go for the Stayers then I can't see what should beat him.The Punchestown Stayers last season was the best 3 mile hurdle race run all year. He beat Penhill by 13 lengths. He beat Identity Thief, the Aintree Stayers winner, by 30 lengths. He could beat this lot with one leg tied up


Couldn't agree more and mentioned him in this thread about a fortnight ago. His figures stack up against anything likely to run in the race.
I think the markets definitely overlooking him currently.

Report differentdrum January 28, 2019 2:43 PM GMT
Faugheen is an 11 year-old. He has been beaten on his two starts since, taking a crashing fall last time. Personally, I think Apple's Jade would have beaten him by daylight.

You didn't mention Shaneshill which drags the Punchestown form down. I suspect the winner was flattered by the margin.

Throughout his career he has operated best when let loose on the front end. Far more difficult to dictate at the Cheltenham Festival than at Punchestown.

He will be doing well to place.
Report firstimevisor January 28, 2019 2:58 PM GMT
Drags the form down - why? Shaneshill was a good horse at his best and he was at or near his very best that day. Penhill had won the Stayers and would have been a comfortable winner again were it not for Faugheen. And he was having only his second race of the season which blows out the over-the-top theory. It was Penhill who was flattered by the 13 length margin.

As for the race at leopardstown the last day, we have no idea what was going to happen but he hadn't been asked any question at the time of the fall and was travelling every bit as well as AJ at that point. He may be 11 but he did show twice last season that he is still capable of running to 170+
Report duffy January 28, 2019 3:10 PM GMT
Let's hope the fall hasn't left anything on him, would be great to see him do well.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2019 5:09 PM GMT
I aint mentioned him cos I don't think hes good enough now to win these type of races.
Hes 11 years old whose had a fair few setbacks with injuries.
To be honest I can see him retiring before he wins another race of note.
Would be quiet happy to be proved wrong though.
Report firstimevisor January 28, 2019 6:42 PM GMT
Well you only need to go back to the end of April when he produced the best hurdling performance of the entire jumps season to win a race of this type.Yes he's 11 and he's had more than his share of setbacks but the 11 year old Faugheen is still one of the very best around when he's 100% and, looking at how he was traveling before the fall 2 out last time, he's still a force at this level.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2019 7:02 PM GMT
I am well aware of what he did in April.
I don't expect him to be able to repeat that another year on(almost).
He cannot muck it at CH level now that's why hes been stepped up,and I don't believe he can muck it at the top level at 3m either.
If he does fair enough,be great to see it,i just don't think we will.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2019 7:24 PM GMT
So what do supporters of Penhill make of the Faugheen factor.
Strictly on the formbook Faugheen beats Penhill.
If he can run as he did in April,hes at least 2nd fav and value at 12/1.

Maybe I should do a quick about turn,back Faugheen at 12/1.Surprised
Got the race by the b&lls then.
Report impossible123 January 28, 2019 8:03 PM GMT
Faugheen: Was the Punchestown race a truly run race as he was gifted a soft lead? Also, Mullins had 7 out of 11 runners in that race; his run behind Apple's Jade despite falling two out and still in contention (2 lengths behind) I do not believe he'd have won or been closer if he'd not fallen - he was already asked by Walsh to get closer just prior to falling, I believe.
Report irishone January 28, 2019 9:15 PM GMT
Penhill has a shin problem
Might not even get there
Report differentdrum January 28, 2019 9:25 PM GMT
If that was the case I am a bit surprised that bookmakers haven't dangled more of a carrot. He has actually shortened in a few places which might be Paisley Park backers covering themselves.
Report Fashion Fever January 28, 2019 9:26 PM GMT
I think Faugheen will be saved punchestown, it would be an easier race for him to boss, and give more time after that fall

not sure this race would be fair on him
Report irishone January 28, 2019 9:29 PM GMT
Penhill is one of the hardest to get right , in willies stable, never has been a great jumper.
Report Somerset Sam January 28, 2019 9:32 PM GMT

Jan 28, 2019 -- 8:03PM, impossible123 wrote:


Faugheen: Was the Punchestown race a truly run race as he was gifted a soft lead? Also, Mullins had 7 out of 11 runners in that race; his run behind Apple's Jade despite falling two out and still in contention (2 lengths behind) I do not believe he'd have won or been closer if he'd not fallen - he was already asked by Walsh to get closer just prior to falling, I believe.


He certainly was going well enough when falling and imo hadn't been asked by Walsh to do much. Look he might not have got close to Apples Jade if he hasn't fallen but in this Stayers Hurdle he wouldn't have to improve much, to win this.

As has been pointed out he's capable of running to 165+ consistently. That would be good enough to win this and certainly belies double figure odds ew.

Report firstimevisor January 28, 2019 10:33 PM GMT
He did take a pearler of a fall but it looks like he may run in the Irish Champion on Saturday so they must be happy enough with him again.If so then it wouldn't surprise me at all if he wins it.

He's not a horse who has to make the running but he certainly has the pace to do it if that's how they want him ridden - he won a Champion Hurdle from the front.

Just a tad curious as to how much,or at what rate, buddeliea believes these horses deteriorate.He could beat the reigning Stayers Hurdle champion, and current ante-post favourite, with a stone in hand at the end of April but now can't muck it at Grade 1 level - because he's a year older??
Native River hasn't mucked it at the top level since mid March last year yet he cannot see beyond him for the Gold Cup!
Report duffy January 29, 2019 2:28 AM GMT
Just watching the Punchestown race again I think I didn't really appreciate what Faugheen did in that race, true he got his own way but he had practically the whole field cooked a long way from home and in the end had dragged the finish out of Penhill, that was his first run over the trip.

I also think that AJ would have beaten him but so what!!! there'd be no shame in getting beat by her, she's better than anything in the Stayers race, and if he had managed to beat her he should really be fav.

He's a massive price considering he has shown us he stays the trip, the market is riddled with horses that won't run or won't stay and with him it could be another case of a horse bringing top class ability at a shorter trip to the stayers division and simply out classing them. Solwhit and Nichols Canyon both did this but were still unproven at the trip going into the race, Faugheen has already proved himself over the trip and did so with a swagger...on reflection he's a massive price!
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 7:12 AM GMT
Visor

We are talking about a horse that went from Champion Hurdles to staying races,that tells you they think he cannot muck it at top of the 2m division anymore.
The difference between 10 and 11 can be quiet significant imo.I think that will prove too much(along with his problems)to be competitive in the stayers. On this I realise I COULD be wrong,its my opinion.
Also as I have said many a time on various threads,be wary of form after Cheltenham,for the following season.
Horses being trained for Chelt can be below par after,and in Penhills case the bounce factor could have played a part.
As for Native River,well we all know his strengths,and that aint 3m at Haydock and Kempton.Plus he aint 11.
Mind you I can see past him as hes not the only one I am backing.
Theres a couple of others at nice prices.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 7:23 AM GMT
Somerset Sam
As has been pointed out he's capable of running to 165+ consistently. That would be good enough to win this


May be good enough!!
The current fav is young still, and improving a fair bit if his last two runs are anything to go by!!
Racing post certainly impressed.
Report differentdrum January 29, 2019 8:16 AM GMT
Faugheen doesn't have to lead but I suspect he would have to if he were to have any chance of winning. The vast majority of his races have been making the running. They have done that for a reason. It would be much easier on the horse if he were held up. He will not get an easy lead in a Stayers Hurdle.

I think much of this discussion is about price. Paisley Park is a much more likely winner but the price now reflects that position. He is on an upward curve, however you want to dress it up Faugheen isn't. If Faugheen were 2/1 he would be ripped to pieces. Sometimes if you miss a price on a horse it is best just to accept it and not try and convince yourself that you haven't missed the boat. This might be one of those times.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 8:40 AM GMT
Duffy
I also think that AJ would have beaten him but so what!!! there'd be no shame in getting beat by her, she's better than anything in the Stayers race
With respect mate, that's an opinion, and no way of knowing if she would be better than Paisley Park in this years stayers.

Anyway lets hope she gets the chance to prove one way or the other, and connections don't go Mares with her....which they probably will.
Report firstimevisor January 29, 2019 11:38 AM GMT
Faugheen has no stamina limitations, which is why he so often makes the running over 2 miles. If they are going fast enough he can drop in, if not he can set the pace but he's not a horse who needs a "soft" lead.

They are more than happy to continue campaigning Faugheen at Grade 1 level, at both 2m and 3m. That tells you that they still believe he CAN muck it at Grade 1 level does it not.And seeing as he still held every chance when falling last time,it is an opinion that is justified.

Its just nonsense dismissing Punchestown form. The jumps season doesn't start and finish between the Tuesday and  Friday of a week in mid March. Penhill certainly did not bounce at Punchestown. If anything he improved from Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 12:21 PM GMT
Sometimes Visor, I think you have a problem reading!!

I never said I was dismissing Punchestown form.
I said be wary of form after Cheltenham for the following season.
Yes sometimes it holds up, but it can also not hold up.
Penhill had his 1st run after a long lay off at Cheltenham and won the Stayers.
He then got well beat. Therefore I concluded that he COULD have bounced.
Maybe though Faugheen was/is simply so much better than Penhill? If so then the bookies have the prices wrong,unless they are factoring in Age?

This is not an exact science this sport,it involves animals that cannot tell us!! and we will all be right or wrong at times. That's why we bet againsr each other on here and why we can disagree.
As for Faugheen,if they thought he could still have a serious chance in the Champion Hurdle why would they put him in Stayers races?? Imo its because they know he aint good enough at the age of 11.
At 3m I recognise he COULD still muck it, I just don't think he will.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 12:47 PM GMT
Just had another look at Faugheen.

Since his last Grade 1 victory at 2m in Nov17 aged 9, he has run in four 2m races.
Pulled up,then beaten by Supasundae,thrashed by BDair, Melon and Mick Jazz in the CH,and comfortably beaten by Sharjah in between his two 3m races..
After the thrashing by BDair,he was stepped up to 3m and thrashed Penhill, and after the Sharjah defeat, he was running well behind AJ over 3m when falling.
During his 2m career from the Champion Hurdle he won he never once had a race further than 2m.
All points to me like they thought after BDair,that they could not win another Champion Hurdle so give 3m a go.
Nowt wrong with that,Hardy did that and so has Jezki, and I think Brave Inca might have done?

He could win the Stayers if he can reproduce that Punch run,but almost a year on at the age of 11 and his problems,i don't think he will.
Report firstimevisor January 29, 2019 1:40 PM GMT
I can understand the fear before the Punchestown race that Penhill COULD bounce, but we clearly saw in the race itself that he did not.

Faugheen made a spectacular comeback after 2 years off in the Morgiana. He was still a serious force at 2 miles then. He actually did bounce next time.His second to Supasundae was disappointing but he did have the champion Hurdle 2nd and 3rd behind him so with hindsight it wasn't a bad run. His run in the Champion was poor.With many horses who have been sidelined for long periods, they can be inconsistent when they return. Faugheen bounced right back at Punchestown and had he been in that kind of form at Cheltenham he would have run a huge race.

I wouldn't write him off at 2 miles yet
Report duffy January 29, 2019 1:45 PM GMT
I mentioned earlier about Solwhit and Nichols Canyon and it was the same with Faugheen in Ireland, classy horses at a lesser distance staying further and being simply too good, if these types of horses could speak they'd be telling us "wow, it's a bit easier running against this mob, they're all a lot slower than what I'm usually used to "Grin
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 1:58 PM GMT
Yes Duffy, kind of why I am saying hes gone at the top level at 2m(imo)and is running better races at 3m, or was last season.

Visor
I think by campaigning him in 3m races,its in their minds that he is not a Champion Hurdler anymore.
Stepping up after his last Champion Hurdle,having never done it before, says that to me.

I hope you have nice prices on Faugheen for the Stayers.
Report firstimevisor January 29, 2019 2:14 PM GMT
Now taken out of the Irish Champion on Saturday, so it could be that fall affected him more than first thought.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 2:28 PM GMT
That's a shame.
Lets hope hes ok.
Report maelduin January 29, 2019 7:05 PM GMT
Penhill has won at Cheltenham twice and was then beaten at Punchestown twice. He is trained to peak for one race a year. And there is no way he improved from Cheltenham last year when you see that the regressing Shaneshill was less then 5l away in third. Take that Punchestown form with a huge pinch of salt. imo
Report firstimevisor January 29, 2019 7:45 PM GMT
Can't agree Maelduin. He was beaten but he was second twice and he was 2-1 both times and I would argue that the Punchestown races were better quality races.

Shaneshill is a 3 time Cheltenham festival runner-up. He is now retired and did lose his form but he was on-song that day and Mullins must have felt he was still capable or he wouldn't have run him. Identity Thief was 4th and Bapaume 5th. The form was solid.

Its debateable whether Penhill actually improved from Cheltenham to Punchestown but there are formlines(such as Monalee) to suggest he certainly didn't regress. No two races will ever turn out exactly as the ratings predict but it will take some convincing to say Penhill was below par at Punchestown in either year.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 9:12 PM GMT
Personally I would say to win the Stayers at Cheltenham,and then to get thrashed in his next race would normally suggest a regression.
I can certainly see the point Maelduin makes in being trained to peak for one race as regards Penhill.
He also would not be the 1st horse to run below par after running well at Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2019 9:30 PM GMT
Looking at the opposition in both races again,i don't think either race was that high in quality to be honest.
I may be that Penhill run similar races and that simply Faugheen is just much better than him.
All about opinions and I can see more than one argument here.
Report firstimevisor January 29, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
So if he won in Cheltenham but he got thrashed into second in Punchestown by a different opponent then he must have regressed?

On a line through Wholestone,a good yardstick, there was nothing between Penhill and Identity Thief. They had both beaten Wholestone by 5 lengths last time out

The big 3 filled 3 of the first 4 places. Penhill beat everything else easier than he had at Cheltenham but was no match for Faugheen. Not that hard to understand really. Penhills and Identity Thiefs come along every year but Faugheens do not.

Identity Thief was the one who ran below par, but he had run in Aintree as well so that was kind of understandable.And you are right - he won't be the first to run below par after running at Cheltenham. But then, so many run below par before Cheltenham too not to even mention how many run below par at Cheltenham itself.
Report buddeliea January 30, 2019 7:10 AM GMT
No I said I would think normally its a regression. Not must be.
I also went on to say that he may have run similar races and that Faugheen is just a better horse than Penhill.
Both are possible scenarios,as is Maelduins point about being trained to peak for one race.
Some horses maintain that form going into Aintree/Punchestown, some don't.
That is well known and has been ever since I know.
As I said.....this sport is not an exact science, and we all need to recognise we may not get it right sometimes.
Occasionally would be niceLaugh
Report maelduin January 30, 2019 12:14 PM GMT
"Shaneshill is a 3 time Cheltenham festival runner-up. He is now retired and did lose his form but he was on-song that day and Mullins must have felt he was still capable or he wouldn't have run him."

WPM must have felt he was still capable if he ran him at Leopardstown at Christmas right? Well he was beaten out of sight. I really don't get that logic. 

Seriously if your interpretation of the Punchestown race form is true then Faugheen ran close to his highest mark ever. I'm not buying that given his issues.

IMO Penhill was way below par at Punchestown, due to his prior excursions, and Faugheen was in much better shape as he was given a relatively easier race at Cheltenham once Ruby knew he couldn't win.

Let's hope we all get to test our theories come March. Neither of them will beat T̶h̶i̶s̶t̶l̶e̶c̶r̶a̶c̶k̶  Paisley Park though. GL
Report differentdrum February 2, 2019 8:09 PM GMT
Amazed that Supasundae would be going the Champion Hurdle route on usual Cheltenham ground. He would be about 6/1 for a Stayers, twice that and more for a Champion Hurdle. As expected he was thoroughly outpaced today.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2019 2:11 PM GMT
Nice boost for Paisley Park today
Report impossible123 February 19, 2019 8:32 PM GMT
Samcro is only a possibility, but will he? Backend of the season after a lung-infection, and up-in-trip to 3m from 2m with Aintree and Punchestown just around the corner? Nevertheless, this has caused a slight drift in price (only here) for Paisley Park; 3.25 to 3.65, manipulation?
Report duffy February 20, 2019 3:48 AM GMT
If Samcro turned up in this I'd be backing him for sure.
Report maelduin February 20, 2019 11:07 AM GMT
Would be shocked if Samcro turned up in this with the "deep lung infection" news. I'm sure they'll give him a decent break and bring him back for Punchestown and then send him over fences next season.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2019 12:26 PM GMT
Blimey Duffy.....you sure??
Report duffy February 20, 2019 2:16 PM GMT
Absolutely budd,and what's more I'd anticipated a weight of money for him, I'm actually more of a fan of his now through his travails this season than I was going into it, he's shown to be I think that he's more of a stayer than I actually thought he was and to that end the way he has been able to travel through his races before getting outpaced is a really big credit to him if he is indeed a stayer.

I don't know what to make of this lung infection and a deep one at that, how long had he had it? all season? or just after his last run? does a deep lung infection allow you to travel like a dream through 3/4 of a race?

In the days where as we know trainers are ultra ultra cautious and with this horse who they still hold in the highest regard  for the horse to be considered a possible runner tells me all I need to know about his "health" for sure.

Over 3 miles at last he'll travel with that power and hopefully simply out class them.
Report impossible123 February 20, 2019 4:12 PM GMT
The max Samcro had run over hurdles was 20f when in pink-health; 3m back after a long illness? I doubt that very much myself; Aintree or Punchestown at best, I believe.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2019 5:16 PM GMT
Fair enough Duffy.
The build up to Cheltenham hes had puts me right off to be honest.
Don't mind so much the races hes ran in,which may not have suited him in hindsight and he is in fact a stayer(also still have doubts on that),its the lack of recent run and obvious health problems.
I think it unlikely he will run anyway mate.
Report ACStafford February 27, 2019 3:29 PM GMT
Penhill ruled out of the festival.
Report Lion King February 28, 2019 12:20 AM GMT
Now Samcro going for a big walk tonight. Announced as non runner tomorrow?
Report foxy February 28, 2019 5:55 AM GMT
Maybe a coincidence but yesterday Betway sent out an enchanced double penhill and Something I didn’t get the name of,a couple of hours before the news of penhill was made public.
Report sageform February 28, 2019 8:42 AM GMT
15/8 non runner no bet on Paisley Park is surely good value now.
Report foxy February 28, 2019 9:06 AM GMT
Emma laville
Report ACStafford February 28, 2019 9:23 AM GMT
West Approach 33/1 each way? The race could really could up.
Report irishone February 28, 2019 11:09 AM GMT
irishone
28 Jan 19 21:15
Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 40,665 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Penhill has a shin problem
Might not even get there

Was told this weeks ago,  cant understand the mentality of Bloom, willie knew this months ago, but a last minute decision can only help the bookies …..why why why ?
Report foxy February 28, 2019 11:27 AM GMT
Willie Mullins

Headline racing post February 21st penhill coming along nicely for defence of his crown
Report irishone February 28, 2019 11:48 AM GMT
did you read that article past the headline ?

"He went away yesterday"  but doesn't say where to.
"I hope we can get him there"
"Every morning you're looking at him to make sure that he's all right"
"To me, he was never going to have a run before Cheltenham"
"You'd rather get runs into them - but what's the point in running in Punchestown or Leopardstown and finding out you can't get him to Cheltenham?"

It was all there between the lines . I bet Willie read that, turned people contacted TB and as a result of the conversations that took place the horse was withdrawn.
Report irishone February 28, 2019 11:49 AM GMT
*turned purple not turned people ...lol
Report The Dragon February 28, 2019 12:16 PM GMT
non runnerCry
Report impossible123 February 28, 2019 2:24 PM GMT
Samcro is taking a walk in the market, but Faugheen's been backed,...seriously?
Report johnslad February 28, 2019 4:13 PM GMT
Well there is only 1 English horse who will most likely win so could be ew steal if price is right
Report maelduin March 1, 2019 8:56 PM GMT
Eddie O'Leary saying Samcro "very doubtful". https://twitter.com/Ui_Maine/status/1101580681648451584

No surprise really.
Report ACStafford March 1, 2019 11:25 PM GMT
Will the bookies take on Paisley Park on the morning of the race? He looks big at 15/8 to me. He's beaten the best of the Brits with ease, so the Irish would have to be the main danger. Samcro is doubtful, Supasundae wants shorter and Faugheen, as good as he has been, is coming on the back of a fall at the age of 11. I'm not usually one for backing shorties at the festival, but this looks banker material to me.
Report irishone March 1, 2019 11:26 PM GMT
Except you didn't know 48 hours ago when it starte drifting

I honestly think less than 2\1 Paisley Park is a lay.
There are some serious irish horses in this race , some of which we don't know get three miles.
One of them will !
8 favs in 28 years makes an even stronger case, LAYING here.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2019 11:51 PM GMT
Paisley Park drifted because of the support for Faugheen - only God knows why! Another Thistlecrack performance beckons, I reckon; 'billies' 5/4 only.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2019 6:19 AM GMT
Not sure why Samcro was ever fancied for this!!
As for serious Irish horses, just had another look at probable runners as i could not think of any.....i still cant!!
Faugheen at the age of 11 after this prep and his problems?? No thanks at the price available.
Think this race is pretty simple looking at it right now.
Report GAZO March 2, 2019 8:17 AM GMT
if he was trained by mullins,henderson or elliot the 2 and the 1 would be the other way round,the bookies will defo try to get him beat and go around 2/1 on the morning but not for much
Report irishone March 2, 2019 10:45 AM GMT
It depends what the irish leave in there
Paisley definitely best of the english
But the performance versus serious irish horses
Last year
Suggests he might be found wanting
LAY LAY LAY
Report foxy March 2, 2019 11:25 AM GMT
Let’s hope there isn’t a change of plan with apples jade
Report sageform March 2, 2019 11:29 AM GMT
Presenting Percy destroyed his Irish opponents in his hurdle run so surely none of those behind him are good enough. I still see West Approach as a place bet as he has beaten the rest of the British contenders.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2019 11:49 AM GMT
Well if AJ runs thats a different thing,but that seems highly unlikely.
If Faugheen can replicate previous 3m form hes a serious challenger,thats unlikely imo.

No, i think it could be a serious mistake trying to get the fav beat.
Report irishone March 2, 2019 12:00 PM GMT
Always something that goes off and tries to run the finish out of them
Fabulous saga last year, cole harden actually did it thre e times
Succeeded once, plenty in there short of three.mile experience
Willing to cut out pace for staying stablemate......
Mid division wont do this time
Report impossible123 March 2, 2019 12:00 PM GMT
"Paisley Park definitely the best of the English. But the performance vs serious Irish horses last year suggests he might be found wanting"

PP (Paisley Park not Presenting Percy) beat the best of the English by an easy 12l in his last Stayers' Trial, and also won another recognised Trial at Ascot yet he's still available at 2/1. However, the other PP (Irish one) has not run a Gold Cup Trial (at all, here or in Ireland) or even run in a chase yet "lunatics" have him at 7/2 fav for the Gold Cup before the reining champion and new winner of the King George another recognised Gold Cup Trial.

How utterly bizarre is that? To me this is utterly, utterly 'blarney' talking. Oh, if anyone is interested he did pop over a few fences at a racecourse in Ireland (today I think) cloak-in-secrecy even MI6 would be proud of.
Report irishone March 2, 2019 12:08 PM GMT
The horse has been popping over fences for the last six weeks pal.
Because he hasnt gonethe "usual" route of your trials
His price is wrong.

How bizarre is that ?
Report buddeliea March 2, 2019 12:09 PM GMT
Its always a good thing for layers to be around,when you fancy a horse.
Paisley looks to be value to me,certainly compared to some other horses at the festival.
Report irishone March 2, 2019 12:11 PM GMT
Only thing utterly bizarre
Around here

Your posts.....
Report buddeliea March 2, 2019 12:19 PM GMT
Irishone

Simple question......Do you think his price is right?
Report irishone March 2, 2019 12:19 PM GMT
Dont forget anything that comes second in a staying hurdle
At cheltenham
Will naturally be branded a non stayer by impossible ExcitedLaughLaughLaughCrazy
Report impossible123 March 2, 2019 12:21 PM GMT
I'd not back the Irish PP with my granny's money as his price is false and sh1t; I'd back NR and/or CDO any time, any day over PP at 7/2. However, I may lay him if he's any shorter than 7/2 on the day, and I'm a backer of horses.

Utterly, utterly bonkers of the highest order, and only his fellow Irish country men/women will back him at that price!
Report GAZO March 2, 2019 2:57 PM GMT
if they hadnt kept entering pp to run then pull him out i wouldnt have been worried about his prep but it just suggests to me they have wanted to get a run into him but couldnt which has to be a negative,the same applies to santini although he wasnt allowed to run
Report johnslad March 2, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
Imp 123 versus the bookie well only 1 lunatic there
Report teewyre March 3, 2019 9:02 PM GMT
Think Kilbricken Storm is a bit of a forgotten horse.Excellent cheltenham form.
Report morpteh mackem March 4, 2019 5:15 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2019 -- 9:02PM, teewyre wrote:


Think Kilbricken Storm is a bit of a forgotten horse.Excellent cheltenham form.


would be very interested in ks if there was a lot of rain.

Report buddeliea March 4, 2019 5:47 PM GMT
Yeh,i think KS will need fairly soft conditions,but he does love Cheltenham,and at the prices worth a shot imo.
Report teewyre March 4, 2019 5:57 PM GMT
Ran a cracker on 'yielding' at punchestown festival just getting touched off by delta work and next destination. Think he's a really good value bet.
Report morpteh mackem March 4, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
backed him in last years albert bartlett ( w and p ) , large price on here ( 60s ish ) , good times.
Report teewyre March 4, 2019 7:19 PM GMT
Morpeth Mackey...... fantastic!!!!
Report morpteh mackem March 4, 2019 7:32 PM GMT
aye, it was me only winner of the whole week thoughSad
Report morpteh mackem March 5, 2019 4:26 PM GMT
no samcro
Report impossible123 March 6, 2019 10:28 AM GMT
Can anyone seriously back Faugheen at 9/2 (2nd fav)? I'm flummoxed just as I'm with 'Brexit'; stable and past glories induced purely to me.
Report FOYLESWAR March 6, 2019 1:17 PM GMT
in answer to your question i would imagine a fair few have backed faugheen, an easy  13 length victory over penhill at  3 miles at is not shabby and if he is as good as last year he will be a danger to all .
Report duffy March 6, 2019 3:32 PM GMT
Keeping banging on about his age is all very well but only if his form at that age backs the argument up.

Last April he destroyed the reigning champion and co at Punchestown, left alone in front yes, going a decent enough pace and keeping going, 3 milers aren't used to that sort of treatment.

This year, (aged 11) whether he would have beaten AJ or not is beside the point, the point is Walsh who is not partial to fanciful notions said that he was very happy with Faugheen when he came down. It's reasonable to assume that at the very worst Faugheen would not have been embarrassed at the end of that race at the very least, this against a horse who is fighting for the CH itself and would probably be favourite for the Stayers itself.

Since the fall connections who would be forgiven for erring on the side of caution have said that Faugheen has shown no signs of ill effect from the fall and they go there happy with him.

Paisley Park a strong favourite for the Stayers on the back of an impressive win last time, if you've got big prices well done, you couldn't possibly back him at his current price though.

For as impressive as he was last time there is one glaring thing for me that came out of the race that I've seen little mention of, they got racing an absolute mile out in that race, Black Op was swinging away far too early and a group of them fell in a hole that exaggerated just how impressive PP was.

It's not just alliteration where the similarity with last years race Fav ends IMO, both horses rose from nowhere and both will have gone into the race at cramped odds, SS failed and I'm not a believer in PP yet, I'll have to suffer him winning first.
Report impossible123 March 6, 2019 4:14 PM GMT
I do not think Penhill was running to the form he won this last year at Punshestown. He's a fragile horse, and he's not been seen since. Now he's injured.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
Im thinking that was not the Penhill we saw at Cheltenham as well,but i do think Faugheen could be a threat if reproducing the run with AJ when he fell.
However i cant back a horse thats had problems and not been seen for a while,at his age, and at the price he is.
Hes an interesting runner though.
Report unclepuncle March 7, 2019 11:52 AM GMT
Such a shame Penhill is missing but I still think last years race is much the best form guide as opposed to the poor English trials Paisley Park has been winning. He's been impresive the last twice and if your on at decent prices fair enouugh, but I can't back an Emma Lavelle trained horse at 2/1 for a Cheltenhma Grade 1.Plain

Supasundae is the class act and should be hard to keep out of the frame but the one for me at the prices is Bacardy's (16/1 nrnb) who fell at the last when starting to storm home last year - reckon he'd have been 3rd at worst.
Report buddeliea March 7, 2019 12:47 PM GMT
So if he had been 3rd at worst,one can assume he would have finished somewhere near Wholestone,and just in front of Sam Spinner.
These are two of the horses just beaten senseless by PP.....in one of those poor English trials!!
Report ACStafford March 7, 2019 1:21 PM GMT
Last year's Stayers was a farce of a race. It turned into a sprint thanks to Joe Colliver getting the ride on Sam Spinner all wrong, leaving 2 1/2 milers to take the places. Supasundae gets 3 miles, but just about for me, and I'd be surprised if he stayed well enough to win in a truly run race.
Report impossible123 March 7, 2019 2:14 PM GMT
Just back the horse with the best credential and form, all things being equal. I believe had the fav been trained by a high profile trainer his price would be nearer that of Sir Erec.
Report buddeliea March 15, 2019 5:04 AM GMT
WOW!!!
What a performance from Paisley Park,simply superb.
Sam Spinner as well and good to see Colliver get it right this time,and only an exceptional staying hurdler beat him.
Faugheen class in defeat,great run from the old boy.
Great race,and for me the performance of the week so far.
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 7:08 PM GMT
But for Paisley Park my Cheltenham could have been the most disastrous ever.
Report Autocue March 18, 2019 10:16 AM GMT
Good ride from Colliver. If he'd done something similar last year I think he'd have won. Missed opportunity.
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