Stayers' hurdle

Presenting Percy destroyed his Irish opponents in his hurdle run so surely none of those behind him are good enough. I still see West Approach as a place bet as he has beaten the rest of the British contenders.

Well if AJ runs thats a different thing,but that seems highly unlikely.
If Faugheen can replicate previous 3m form hes a serious challenger,thats unlikely imo.

No, i think it could be a serious mistake trying to get the fav beat.

Always something that goes off and tries to run the finish out of them
Fabulous saga last year, cole harden actually did it thre e times
Succeeded once, plenty in there short of three.mile experience
Willing to cut out pace for staying stablemate......
Mid division wont do this time

"Paisley Park definitely the best of the English. But the performance vs serious Irish horses last year suggests he might be found wanting"

PP (Paisley Park not Presenting Percy) beat the best of the English by an easy 12l in his last Stayers' Trial, and also won another recognised Trial at Ascot yet he's still available at 2/1. However, the other PP (Irish one) has not run a Gold Cup Trial (at all, here or in Ireland) or even run in a chase yet "lunatics" have him at 7/2 fav for the Gold Cup before the reining champion and new winner of the King George another recognised Gold Cup Trial.

How utterly bizarre is that? To me this is utterly, utterly 'blarney' talking. Oh, if anyone is interested he did pop over a few fences at a racecourse in Ireland (today I think) cloak-in-secrecy even MI6 would be proud of.

The horse has been popping over fences for the last six weeks pal.
Because he hasnt gonethe "usual" route of your trials
His price is wrong.

How bizarre is that ?

Its always a good thing for layers to be around,when you fancy a horse.
Paisley looks to be value to me,certainly compared to some other horses at the festival.

Only thing utterly bizarre
Around here

Your posts.....

Irishone

Simple question......Do you think his price is right?

Dont forget anything that comes second in a staying hurdle
At cheltenham
Will naturally be branded a non stayer by impossible

I'd not back the Irish PP with my granny's money as his price is false and sh1t; I'd back NR and/or CDO any time, any day over PP at 7/2. However, I may lay him if he's any shorter than 7/2 on the day, and I'm a backer of horses.

Utterly, utterly bonkers of the highest order, and only his fellow Irish country men/women will back him at that price!

if they hadnt kept entering pp to run then pull him out i wouldnt have been worried about his prep but it just suggests to me they have wanted to get a run into him but couldnt which has to be a negative,the same applies to santini although he wasnt allowed to run

Imp 123 versus the bookie well only 1 lunatic there

Think Kilbricken Storm is a bit of a forgotten horse.Excellent cheltenham form.

Mar 3, 2019 -- 3:02PM, teewyre wrote:

Think Kilbricken Storm is a bit of a forgotten horse.Excellent cheltenham form.

would be very interested in ks if there was a lot of rain.

Yeh,i think KS will need fairly soft conditions,but he does love Cheltenham,and at the prices worth a shot imo.

Ran a cracker on 'yielding' at punchestown festival just getting touched off by delta work and next destination. Think he's a really good value bet.

backed him in last years albert bartlett ( w and p ) , large price on here ( 60s ish ) , good times.

Morpeth Mackey...... fantastic!!!!

aye, it was me only winner of the whole week though

no samcro

Can anyone seriously back Faugheen at 9/2 (2nd fav)? I'm flummoxed just as I'm with 'Brexit'; stable and past glories induced purely to me.

in answer to your question i would imagine a fair few have backed faugheen, an easy  13 length victory over penhill at  3 miles at is not shabby and if he is as good as last year he will be a danger to all .

Keeping banging on about his age is all very well but only if his form at that age backs the argument up.

Last April he destroyed the reigning champion and co at Punchestown, left alone in front yes, going a decent enough pace and keeping going, 3 milers aren't used to that sort of treatment.

This year, (aged 11) whether he would have beaten AJ or not is beside the point, the point is Walsh who is not partial to fanciful notions said that he was very happy with Faugheen when he came down. It's reasonable to assume that at the very worst Faugheen would not have been embarrassed at the end of that race at the very least, this against a horse who is fighting for the CH itself and would probably be favourite for the Stayers itself.

Since the fall connections who would be forgiven for erring on the side of caution have said that Faugheen has shown no signs of ill effect from the fall and they go there happy with him.

Paisley Park a strong favourite for the Stayers on the back of an impressive win last time, if you've got big prices well done, you couldn't possibly back him at his current price though.

For as impressive as he was last time there is one glaring thing for me that came out of the race that I've seen little mention of, they got racing an absolute mile out in that race, Black Op was swinging away far too early and a group of them fell in a hole that exaggerated just how impressive PP was.

It's not just alliteration where the similarity with last years race Fav ends IMO, both horses rose from nowhere and both will have gone into the race at cramped odds, SS failed and I'm not a believer in PP yet, I'll have to suffer him winning first.

I do not think Penhill was running to the form he won this last year at Punshestown. He's a fragile horse, and he's not been seen since. Now he's injured.

Im thinking that was not the Penhill we saw at Cheltenham as well,but i do think Faugheen could be a threat if reproducing the run with AJ when he fell.
However i cant back a horse thats had problems and not been seen for a while,at his age, and at the price he is.
Hes an interesting runner though.

Such a shame Penhill is missing but I still think last years race is much the best form guide as opposed to the poor English trials Paisley Park has been winning. He's been impresive the last twice and if your on at decent prices fair enouugh, but I can't back an Emma Lavelle trained horse at 2/1 for a Cheltenhma Grade 1.

Supasundae is the class act and should be hard to keep out of the frame but the one for me at the prices is Bacardy's (16/1 nrnb) who fell at the last when starting to storm home last year - reckon he'd have been 3rd at worst.

So if he had been 3rd at worst,one can assume he would have finished somewhere near Wholestone,and just in front of Sam Spinner.
These are two of the horses just beaten senseless by PP.....in one of those poor English trials!!

Last year's Stayers was a farce of a race. It turned into a sprint thanks to Joe Colliver getting the ride on Sam Spinner all wrong, leaving 2 1/2 milers to take the places. Supasundae gets 3 miles, but just about for me, and I'd be surprised if he stayed well enough to win in a truly run race.

Just back the horse with the best credential and form, all things being equal. I believe had the fav been trained by a high profile trainer his price would be nearer that of Sir Erec.

WOW!!!
What a performance from Paisley Park,simply superb.
Sam Spinner as well and good to see Colliver get it right this time,and only an exceptional staying hurdler beat him.
Faugheen class in defeat,great run from the old boy.
Great race,and for me the performance of the week so far.

But for Paisley Park my Cheltenham could have been the most disastrous ever.

Good ride from Colliver. If he'd done something similar last year I think he'd have won. Missed opportunity.

PP makes a pleasing winning reappearance

I note Mullins hoping to have Penhill out soon
and to have a full season

Betting suspended ? Any idea why ?

think its an entrie stage

40 entered included
CHAMP
SAMCRO
BENES DES DIEUX
CITY ISLAND

It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if at least one of champ, minella indo or city island end up here. What do they do if champ makes a bad mistake nto and if minella Indo has a mishap . Time is running out to come back. I have been nibbling away .... don’t feel good about it as I would much prefer them to flourish in the new discipline but  I guess business is business.

The inclusion is Summerville and bright forecast has already changed the complexion of the race to some extent. One or more of these would shake it up a little more. I distinctly remember CI first target being touted as this race (many many months ago) and then I think they obviously had a rethink but am sure this would be his target if they believe he is not quite ready for a festival chase.

I agree with both SB and MI, I just think that SB would already be far shorter on the exchanges right now if there was a strong thinking from the stable toward the stayers.

MI would be fascinating, he snapped the theory that the AB is wa horse breaker that is won by a grizzled, hardy horse with a number of runs already under his belt. He won it on his 3rd start, raced up with the pace and was still plenty keen enough very late into the race, he then came out and backed it up at the Punchestown festival no less.

Things obviously haven't panned out how they would have liked so far this season and would have surely have wanted to get some more experience into him over fences by now, however, they could have their cake and eat it here as if they drew stumps now over fences they could go back to that discipline next season as a novice.

Noticed Benie and PPERCY
entered in the Galmoy

Normal prep for Percy

champ cut by the firms for this , the logic being if he fails to impress with his jumping next time, this would be the obvious target .

City island aiming for this now

pp now going for the Irish Cup

City island may need more than smaller obstacles to win again!
It’s not even travelling that strongly.

I do not think jumping is the issue with Champ - he's just a bit wayward, and needs a quicker pace and constant cajoling to keep him interested. I'd experiment with a change of jockey, if he was mine.

So impossible what race will Champ run in if he jumps badly nto.

I couldn't have Champ after the last run, he is quirky and needs his mind making up for him at every fence for sure, a bigger problem though is that the jock isn't always going to see the stride and is going to have to let the horse get in tighter and pop the fence himself at times, the fence where he came down was one such occasion, firstly the horse flashed his tail on approach to the fence which was the first bad sign and then with nothing coming from above as the jock was letting him pop it himself the horse basically ignored the fence completely and was lucky to come out in one piece.

Can't back the horse.

I do not think Champ will revert back to hurdles for good - he'd even be more wayward eg tearaway at the front like last season. His future is the Gold Cup, not Stayers.

Should he jump poorly at Cheltenham (RSA) maybe more schooling, and possibly a run over hurdles prior 2021 eg Aintree. I firmly believe his ultimate race is the Gold Cup. He's not in the same position as Buveur D'Air who was not good enough to win the JLT (beaten by Yorkhill), and lacking stamina for the Gold Cup trip.

If Champ was within 2 lengths adrift, but still in contention coming to the last fence eg had been jumping adequately prior I think he'd have an excellent chance of winning The RSA; a change of jockey could bring upon a more mature showing from Champ given the inadequacy of his pilot on his last 2 running eg trying to swerve the last fence (at Newbury), and losing concentration (at Cheltenham).

You know as soon as I asked the question I regretted it. As you were everyone.

Champ reminds me of the same connections horse Kid Cassidy (R.i.p).
Rarely a race goes by without something going wrong.
Fruit loop

I see Segal has put up Somerville Boy and Apples Jade.

Summerville boy has the same sire to stablemate Black ops so could well improve for the step up in trip.

Apples Jade may run to her best on the new course, which is more of a galloping track. She hates the old course though so would be a waste of time entering the champion hurdle or mares in my opinion.

She did win the mares a tremendous race that season but yes I agree the new course will suit her much more.

Yeah she did indeed win the mares in 2017 as you rightly say, but I don’t believe she ran up to her mark that day. 4th place was far to close.

BDD most impressive!!!

Ignoring for a minute the wants and aspirations of connections and racing fans. There will be huge scrutiny on what happens next and the future of the Mares programme. If BDD and Honeysuckle take each other on the whole programme gets an enormous boost. If H goes CH and BDD goes stayers what a monumental shot across the boughs (or however it’s spelt).

You’d imagine a 5 th day could well have a 3rd mares only race. There will be a lot of nervous people with everything crossed over the next few weeks

Cant believe Benny matched as low as 4-1
for the stayers

What a farce it would be if you had BDD and Honeysuckle running in the Mares and potentially making the Mares a stronger race than the CH.

Trainer says he will "seriously" consider the
STAYERS
obviously DEPENDENT ON THE GROUND

If BDD ran in the Stayers you wouldn't see 4/1 on the day I reckon.

Its 5-2 nrnb

She's another Annie Power, probably wouldn't be out of place in a CH.

Only assignment for Champ at Cheltenham is The RSA.

Correctio: Champ is still in The Stayers

You are a racist of that no doubt
A liar as well (FOUND you out in the Arc)
Now you appear to be an idiot as well

Class act PP, and SBoy earned his place in the stayers after that I would think. .

Not sure after that
Isn't the same as last year
Race was a false pace
Second and third were close
Benny messing with pace would be interesting

and she'd be getting 7lbs.

She'd be well in on the figures taking that into account

BDD would be serious competition for PP and certainly the best horse that PP has faced relative to retained ability over the trip and discipline.

If Honeysuckle is less than impressive in the Irish Champion Hurdle and sticks to the Mares then Mullins will run in the Stayers because the whole point of the Mares race is that it was a perceived penalty kick, if it is actually going to provide a horse of high quality then they had just as well run in the better race.

BDD would go off a very strong 2nd fav for the race should she run and would have every chance of winning IMO.

When interviewed after the Galmoy, it was put to him the comparison with Annie Power, he half muttered under his breath that he thought BDD was better, it almost came across a private thought that he accidentally let slip out.

As Ruby Walsh said earlier, they will run where they think will win, long way to go yet.

Comparison with Bdd and Ap. ?
Both fall at the final.hurdle
Jumping the shadow

Connections of one horse would have learnt an awful lot in the cleeve today. It has almost trebled in price. I feel sure knowing how the owners feel it was being nursed round. Expect a much bolder showing in March.

Oh,PP is a class act alright,a proper staying hurdler,one of the best I've seen.
I think one race he thrashed the field,but all the others since he became this prolific staying hurdler he's won by fairly small margins.
So I don't worry too much of horses that finish fairly close to him.
I am a tad concerned re BDD though,enough to put her in a couple of nice bets I have that have PP in them,just to cover.
My feeling is that PP will win the stayers with or without BDD,but she may prove me wrong.

It would add much intrigue to the race if she runs.
Wonder if connections will go for it.
Right now the Mares more likely I would think,and odds suggest that,but things can happen that could change that.

Yes,MS would have learnt a lot for sure.

I always take what trainers say about mares with a little pinch of salt just like I do with Coolmore and colts.

Paisley Park supporters will be confident come what may, but could do with Honeysuckle hosing up in the Irish Champion.

Yes they would be confudent,he's the best stayer around and proven to be.
I ant seen anything from BDD or any other horse that would have me worried if I was large on PP.

What we saw from BDD the other day, all be it through the fog would have me worried, she absolutely destroyed a field every bit as good as PP had faced and did it on the bridle, she is a highly classy mare and the truth is that we're still don't quite know where her ceiling is, she'd be getting the 7lbs in the stayers that would actually put her ahead on the figures.

She's also versatile and as appearing to get the 3 miles well is also highly versatile, as irishone has said she could mess around with the pace and use her pace at a shorter trip to take this race away from PP.

It was a slow race yesterday which didn't suit PP, you had a 140 horse beat by not very much, (and this after him being workmanlike against Thistlecrack and the season being messed about somewhat after the Ascot withdrawal) it highlights a potential flaw in the fav in a false run race. However talk of slow run races to get the fav beat may well be doing BDD a disservice, she may be capable of taking this race how it comes and just be too good, she's like AP in as much as she probably wouldn't be out of place in a CH but she, unlike AP is a proven stayer too. She has to be viewed as a big danger to all in the race IMO and certainly PP's current price is unappealing with her lurking.

BDD looked impressive beating Penhill (a smidgeon of his past) by a distance; Apple's Jade did not run her race (and pulled-up); Killutagh Vic (a different horse post Walsh's win at all cost behaviour); Death Duty had his 1st race after nearly 2 years on the side line. Thus I'd not consider her win as "absolutely destroyed a field every bit as good as PP had faced". However, her win (receiving 4lbs) in France beating Bapaume just under 10l was very credible.

PP has always produced a little bit more when asked to; he'd met the best in his division and beaten them convincingly eg Stayers. And, this season he's shown he'd raced up with the pace, and quicken too if necessary at the business end to win his races. The only difference between PP and BDD is their trainer ie a lesser known (PP) whereas the other (BDD) is high profile.

Thistlecrack was no slouch over hurdles; a very good champion stayer. I believe he'd have been champion stayer for at least another year had connections not pursued their Gold Cup dream with him.

But, as always horse racing is mainly about opinions. As such, I'd side with PP as he's proven despite having to concede 7lbs to BDD, if Mullins is sporting and game.

Blimey Duffy  she is good no doubt but I think you are getting a little carried away. It’s bonkers to say the field was as good as the cleeve. The runner up hasn’t finished within 20 lengths of a horse since April 18 when he got beat 13 lengths. The 3rd home hasn’t finished within 25 lengths of a horse since may 19 and the 4th home hasn’t run since dec 17. The fact is she beat declining and horrendously out of form horses very easily. Can’t we just leave it that she is a lovely mare who has her chance before we put yet another horse on this almighty pedastool.

I'm not putting her on a pedastool, I've stated things that we know about her and have wondered about how good she actually is.

I'll accept that on reflection she beat a mix of horses who've seen better days and ones that are in decline having said that those horses have a value and there is a margin of defeat that a horse could impose on them that makes the performance impressive and on her first run of the season I think she did that.

What about the strength of the Cleeve form then, the 2nd favourite ran no race whatsoever so we'll excuse him, the 2nd is only now showing some promise back over hurdles after a failed chasing campaign but having said that if ridden slightly differently may have prevailed yesterday. The 3rd horse was last seen trying to qualify for the Pertemps Final after, again another failed chase campaign and generally disappointing. The 4th is your archetypal plucky decent handicapper who will always try his best but is limited at the higher levels. Then you've got a horse that has done nothing since Cheltenham and Punchestown 2 years ago, next is L'ami Serge, well, that about covers him and finally there is another very good handicapper but one who disappointed twice this season and was poor yesterday.

More so than all of that though it is quite telling if you take the time to look back at last years Cleeve where PP was much more impressive and comparing the two highlights a vulnerability that he has if the race is not run at anything other than a real test particularly if there is a classy opponent in there with relative pace.

I've watched both races side by side and as you can see from the times they were way slower this year but they were steady throughout the race, last year PP came off the bridle a long way out which is concerning on the eye but is actually a good thing as it shows the test to which the horses were encountering, they were miles clear on comparison at all points of the race compared to this year.

He then kicks in with stamina coming in to play whilst the others die and he was an easy winner in a race that was very much run to suit. This year he was on the bridle until turning in, visually encouraging you may think but not really because it tells you the pace hasn't been strong enough to bring his greatest asset into play,stamina!, he got away with it yesterday because SB didn't go quite slow enough as there was still a little of the race left when his relative pace advantage finally expired and his lack of stamina saw him beat.

There is a real concern of  a slow pace this year because It's very possible that SB connections would have learned a lot from yesterday for sure and if allowed to lead on the big day will turn it into a right dawdle, even more so than yesterday so as to best be able to deploy their capabilities at a shorter trip and take PP's strength away, this of course would suit BDD too, who is probably far more versatile too.

PP is a short priced favourite and has been all along but I think he has a vulnerability that really shouldn't be there relative to the price and it's all about price, he's a wonderful horse to wait for I/R because you can get the key question of the pace of the race answered in plenty of time without his price being negatively affected whichever way you play him.

I am of the opinion


that the Cleese will produce at Least the first two on March and possibly top 3.
I would not be under estimating If the cap fits,that's for sure.

Where I agree with Duffy,is that I am unsure as to exactly how good BDD is, but I do know how good those she beat up the other day are,and they are miles away from a stayers hurdle now.
I hope BDD turns up,but I fear she won't ,and will be in the Mares again.
Whatever Honeysuckle does imo won't change that,my feeling is she ain't CH class,but admit next week could prove me wrong of course.

Re PP,to me he was as impressive as he always is on Saturday.
Jumped and travelled really well,came to win his race and ran all the way to the line.
Pretty much perfect.
Hes so versatile,and can win whatever the pace of the race,although i do take the fast paced angle as to why he may win by a wider margin.
As i have said, he normally wins by between a length and 3, and rarely by more.
To me hes as bombproof as you can get in this game, but of course any horse is vulnerable if a horse comes along that is simply better!! I wonder if that will happen sometime soon? I dont think so myself.

Agreed and accepted no pedastool. Essentially your point is PP is vulnerable to a slow run race. I am not sure how much slower it can get than Saturday but   you obviously think there is plenty of room to go slower yet. I remember all the plots and schemes to try and get big bucks beat. This is starting to remind me of that. I know this wasn’t your intention but your and others posts may ironically be the biggest compliment of all to PP. does this horse have a vulnerability and how can connections of other horses get him beat. Only serious race horses earn this kind of scrutiny and attention.

Is he unbeatable of course not. The nrnb prices have him as only fractionally more likely to win than get beat. So the price factors  in a vulnerability. If I was to take him on I would want to pay a lot less to do so than I would have to with BDD.

When I watched the Cleeve in running I told myself If ever PP was vulnerable it is now. In running I had it evens the two SB and PP. clearly it couldn’t have been worse for itcf in running. After the race my immediate reaction was last years PP might have lost today. This years model has a few more clubs in his bag.

Apologies did it to me again

Does BDD add intrigue, absolutely (though I think she will run in mares)Could SB improve like many do from there first run over 3m, absolutely. Will itcf connections have learnt from the day, massively (as long as owners don’t play better on flat track card to avoid the festival). Could there still be novice chase interest last minute yes. Could ci be a joker in the pack yes. All these possibilities make it a potentially fascinating renewal.

But as for PP I am convinced he is a better horse than last year and has become harder to beat.

BDD is the x factor and adds intrigue, we don't know just how good she is, I think she's very good and will provide a much stiffer task for the favourite than anything he has faced so far, I'm not necessarily of the opinion that a way has to be found to get PP beat as I said earlier that talk of slow run races to get the fav beat may well be doing BDD a disservice, she may be capable of taking this race how it comes and just be too good. I disagree that PP is bombproof though because he would be vulnerable to a slow run race, something like what we got a couple of year ago would give him a problem and he'd need a decent sand wedge for that particular trap.

I see PPowers are sponsoring the race
Not going NRNB

i understand ..... you’d certainly want a horse that’s 5-2 for a festival race to have a good chance of winning it.

You certainly would!!

Looks like itcf straight to Aintree - reason given avoiding PP. I am sure owners needed very little excuse. I know many will have written him off anyway. For me a real shame as don’t think anything went right Saturday and still think he could have run a big race.

Oh I know you disagree Duffy, I seem to recall us disagreeing last year in the build up re PP.
Maybe you will be correct this year.
He's wining races off slow and quicker pace,simply because he's the best around and proved to be.
He's not bombproof if BDD is better than him,or indeed any other horse,but as far as the pace of the race,no problem for him.
As Miltons said,and I think he's right after further thought......he's harder to beat now.

Bl00dy hell,that's bad news for his backers,and for the race.
I was watching him closely on Saturday and he was unlucky in running round the bend,had his ground taken and shuffled back a bit,and then running on well up the hill.
Maybe connections did not need much of an excuse to dodge Cheltenham.
.

buddeliea 27 Jan 20 16:50 
Oh I know you disagree Duffy, I seem to recall us disagreeing last year in the build up re PP.
Maybe you will be correct this year.

Ohh you b1tch

Ha ha, sorry mate,I really did not mean it that way.

Quite alright.

After Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle, I’ve unusually found another favourite for the festival!

For what it’s worth - Interesting quote from Ruby with regards to BDD that the race fell apart and he gave Penhill as the example of being the same distance behind BDD as he was in the race before against Apples Jade, meaning AJ just didn’t run her race.

For what it’s worth I don’t think you can really take anything Ruby says seriously. His still involved with the Mullins yard and is therefore protecting the yard with various sound bite angles.

Very interesting though that BDD did that off level weights and without a mares allowance.

If we get desperate ground and a fast pace, I think TOBEFAIR is overpriced.  Currently 66/1 (b365) and 25/1 (w/o Paisley Park).

Was only 6 lengths behind in the Cleeve and could be some value.  Will be staying on when others cried enough.