Cheltenham Festival
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Festival Weather Watch
Festival Weather Watch
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Replies: 453
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That's a weather station roughly 3kms from the course
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3MM overnight : Soft good to soft places
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this mornings simon bolleaux.....
"my best bet is it will be SOFT with something else in it" "i have been caught out so many times" |
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Claisse just on ATR reckons he will be leading with soft with something else attached , with the caveat a weeks a bit far ahead .
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you get the feeling he hasnt got a clue
i get that feeling everytime i get out on the course prior to racing |
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in fairness to Claisse a week out where weathers concerned hard to be dogmatic Hence its 10//1 good 11/8 soft on here. Dont think anyone could call it 1 way or the other with certainty @ this stage
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should read 10/11 good to soft
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i cant be fair to him at all
none of the trainers take him as gospel they all walk out every day as they do at most tracks it can be a quagmire on the cross country and good on the old course especially where hes been compacting all winter says he has been caught out many times it aint rocket science is it ? |
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2 significant developments today imo
first going stick reading since the snow...5.5  and second 3mm of rain last night hasn't "changed" the description but look at the map there is hardly any g/s on the old course now could easily call it soft all over and up to 17mm of rain f/c fri/sat, if they get the upper end of that there is no chance of g/s a lot will depend on how much rain they get but I'm not convinced g/s should even be fav after today |
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Todays update:
Claisse said: "We've had a dry day having received 3mm of overnight rain. The forecast is for a few showers on Wednesday, bringing 1mm or 2mm of rain. From Thursday to Sunday there should be more persistent rain with a forecast for up to 17mm If the forecast proves accurate and we did get that much, I'd say we'll be soft with heavy places by the end of the week, but we're too far out to speculate what the ground description will be on Tuesday." A number of weather forecasts also indicate an expectation for rain or showers at Cheltenham throughout next week. Bonkers that you can still back soft at odds against - don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.  |
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thing is uncle its almost never soft for festival, so it makes it hard to believe
but the 5.5 is incredible tbh because that is proper soft and nowhere near g/s I know that place dries out like a wrung sponge but it won't make it by next tues if the track gets as much rain as is as f/c, the water table is just too high and yet the market is pretty static, v surprising (presumably as there's been no official going change today) |
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I think in the last 11 years we have had
7 years g/s 2 years good 2 years soft |
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Putting the betting aside Tuesday and Wednesday should be soft/good to soft. The problem is Thursday and Friday as there could be 20mm on total Wednesday (I assume the evening) and Thursday. It will be a real shame if it becomes a real slog.
Forty |
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Forty I dont have a problem with heavy ground in some ways it makes things easier to work out
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Fair comment
An awful lot of form this season has been on soft,and its not hard to find horses that act on soft. It will be what it will be,forms all there for all to see and bet accordingly. |
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budd on heavy ground I think you can be dogmatic about what horses wont win
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Yes you can,and hope one has not backed too many of them antepost!!
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only done definitly red so quite happy whatever degree of soft we end up with
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ellison thinks DR doesn't want mud but I have completely the opposite view
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I think DR will run a big race whatever the surface,but soft may will stop others from doing so.
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Kim Bailey is declaring First Flow as a runner in the Supreme which suggests to me that notwithstanding his cozy fireside chat with Shaman Claisse chez Bailey the other night, he's convinced the soft going that First Flow needs to be seen at his best will feature on day 1 of the meeting.
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will be back to good to soft by end of day sunshine and breeze.
2016 27 mm rain on wednesday prior to festival Annie Power breaks track record on claisse good to soft yet closer to good/good to firm in places |
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A couple of days ago it was forecast to be lashing down on Friday. Now it's sunny and breezy with the odd shower.
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Yes the rain has been delayed - forecasting some heavy rain in the early hours of Thursday now and then another band Friday night into Saturday, and then just a few showers. But Monday and Tuesday look dry.
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I think 'heavy' rain in the early hours of Thursday is exaggerating a bit.
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Looked dark blue to green on the BBC radar.
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If the going stick reading is still 5.5 or lower on tuesday morning and he calls it good to soft he should be told to go forth and multiply.
No one knows what will happen between now and then and the way the prices are just now you may as well wait and hope he has glasses on when he takes the going stick readings. 5.5 was reported by him as HEAVY on new years day |
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Meeting Date Report Date Official Going GoingStick Index
Saturday 16 December Saturday 16 December at 07:28 C: and H: Soft Good to Soft in places. 6.3 on Saturday at 06:00 Friday 15 December Friday 15 December at 07:19 C: and H: Soft, Good to Soft in places. Cross country: Good to Soft, Soft in places. C: and H: 6.1 cross country 6.7 on Friday at 06:00 Sunday 19 November Sunday 19 November at 12:49 Soft, Heavy in places. 5.9 on Sunday at 11:00 Sunday 19 November Sunday 19 November at 07:31 Soft Heavy in places Saturday 18 November Saturday 18 November at 15:43 Soft, Heavy in places. Saturday 18 November Saturday 18 November at 12:17 Soft, Good to Soft in places. Saturday 18 November Saturday 18 November at 10:08 Good to Soft 6.5 on Saturday at 09:00 Friday 17 November Friday 17 November at 07:18 C: and H: Good to Soft Cross country Good C: and H: 6.2 cross country 7.1 on Thursday at 16:00 Saturday 28 October Saturday 28 October at 06:14 Good Good to Soft in places. 7.0 on Saturday at 06:00 Friday 27 October Friday 27 October at 06:34 Good Good to Soft in places watered 6.8 on Friday at 06:00 Friday 05 May Friday 05 May at 12:38 Good (Watered) 7.1 on Friday at 12:00 Thursday 20 April Thursday 20 April at 06:25 Good (watered) 7.2 on Thursday at 06:00 Wednesday 19 April Wednesday 19 April at 10:15 Good (watered) 7.1 on Tuesday at 14:00 Friday 17 March Friday 17 March at 10:37 Good. 7.5 on Friday at 09:00 Thursday 16 March Thursday 16 March at 10:34 Good, Good to Soft in places 7.3 on Thursday at 09:00 Wednesday 15 March Wednesday 15 March at 12:21 Old: Good to Soft (Good in Places) Cross Country: Good (Good to Soft in Places) New: Good (Good to Soft in Places) Old: 7.1 Cross Country: 8.1 New: 7.5 on Wednesday at 11:00 Tuesday 14 March Tuesday 14 March at 12:34 Old: Good to Soft Cross Country: Good to Soft (Good in Places) New: Good to Soft (Good in Places) Old: 6.5 Cross Country: 7.2 New: 7.0 on Tuesday at 11:00 Saturday 28 January Saturday 28 January at 07:21 C: and H: Soft, Good to Soft in places. Cross country Good to Soft, Good in places. C&H: 6.5 Cross country 7.2 on Saturday at 06:00 Sunday 01 January Sunday 01 January at 13:32 Soft after race 1 6.6 on Saturday at 14:00 Sunday 01 January Sunday 01 January at 11:38 Good to Soft, Good in places 6.6 on Saturday at 14:00 Sunday 01 January Sunday 01 January at 07:15 Good 6.7 on Saturday at 14:00 |
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Meeting Date Report Date Official Going GoingStick Index
Saturday 27 January Saturday 27 January at 14:36 Heavy after race 2. Saturday 27 January Saturday 27 January at 07:24 Soft. 5.7 on Saturday at 06:00 Monday 01 January Monday 01 January at 07:28 Heavy Soft in places. 5.5 on Sunday at 14:00 |
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So there you have it.
5.5 is a lower reading than for the entire 2017 season. Unless it dries out significantly ( frankly no one really knows do they ? ) then it could well resemble the winter muck we have had in the early part of 2018 !! |
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No opinion. No glossing over it.
they are the historical data facts regarding the stick readings he has recorded. If he is taking these readings in a tried and tested fashion then that is what to go by. Not by his churned out b****x |
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Next Race Meeting 13/03/2018
Report Date 07/03/2018 08:43:00 Official Going Soft Good to Soft in places. GoingStick 5.5 on Tuesday at 13:00 |
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Definitely does seem crazy that 5.5 can be two totally different ground descriptions.
I though the whole point of the going stick was to standardise everything and remove the 'human' element. |
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The 5.5 reading was taken yesterday at 13.00.
The Soft description was given at 08.43 this morning. So presumably it wasn't 5.5 any more. |
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Here you go uncle
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Going-Stick-Average-Readings-1.pdf |
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2016 27 mm rain on wednesday prior to festival Annie Power breaks track record on claisse good to soft yet closer to good/good to firm in places
water table much higher this year |
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its been given as soft, g/s places since the snow melted and 5.5 is the first stick reading since the snow
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judged by the latest map the g/s places will take some finding
literally just the top turn at the end of the back str and that is it |
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Plenty of GS wonders....
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham |
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not on the old course there isn't
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