Cheltenham Festival
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Festival Weather Watch
Festival Weather Watch
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Best way to play this is take it day by day - Monday: It will start raining on the course at approx midday tomorrow - it will be consistent for approx 12 hours
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It's come to a sorry pass when there is more interest in the weather than the racing! Forecasts out beyond 4 days are unreliable in the UK. They even got it wrong today. Supposed to be showers over a period of about 5 hours from noon. I think I noted 2 with negligible rainfall amounts.
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The going is an incredibly important factor when assessing a race, especially if it might get extremely soft. It also means running plans for umpteen horse, especially the novice grade 1’s, are up in the air so nobody can discuss an individual race with confidence at this stage.
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Yep ^ no bets until the first day
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Well done Deptford = the voice of sanity!
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I have a take out of a monkey at a score.
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I have a take out of a monkey at a score.
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9 out of 10 days with showers on BBC
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The thursday and saturday before Cheltenham quite a bit of rain (about 42mm); from wednesday to fri on Cheltenham week (about 50mm). I'd be surprised if ground is not worse than good to soft on these days.
Horses with duck feet a massive advantage, I believe. |
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So it's gone from 10-13mm between next weekend and people are thinking it'll be soft at best and possibly heavy and now you're saying it's gone to 42mm now and another 50mm Cheltenham week
 fkin hell they should just call it off now |
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According to 'myweather2.com' 24mm the saturday prior to Cheltenham alone, and 29.8mm the following thursday alone; Gold Cup is friday.
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Why would anyone take notice of a weather forecast a week away ffs?!
As F.C. says they don’t even get it right for the same day. Rozelkid. You really are getting a bit carried away with these forecasts and the potential for a monsoon |
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As ff says even
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simon produces ground that suits the british jockey club
hes more worried about his paymasters than he is punters. you dont often see heavy or firm in the goiung ...... he knows where to pop the stick in |
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Simon has an easy job this year as nature will take care of itself.
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no ones even mentioned on this thread the fact that cheltenham dries like no other course
it would have to rain all day next Sunday and Monday to be heavy |
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yeah thats the problem
if it rains on the day its only after vanesha has a couple of winners or the irish mudlarks start popping up that the going gets altered because the state of the art drainage system dont work quick enough |
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he was hoping for grass last week
grass only grows above 8 C only one day forecst with that temp over next week oh dear ...... |
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The extra moisture is in addition to the melting snow.
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Good-to-soft is still odds on with soft available at 11/8 on here - if you think it's certain to be soft put your money where your mouth is.
Still different forecast giving different rain totals. Metchecks 7 day forecast suggests it will be waterlogged , the Metoffice 7 day hardly any serious rain and Accuweather and the BBC are somewhere inbetween with Friday/Saturday looking the wettest but rain also during Cheltenham week. |
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From Kim Bailey's blog this morning:
Snow gone off the roads and the colour green was back in the description of my surroundings.. Relief. Relief too for Simon Claisse (Clerk of the course at Cheltenham) who was over for supper last night. Simon and his team had just dug the last fence clear of snow. Every fence on the course, including the cross country fences, had their snow covering removed by shovel and barrow. That stops false ground around the fences from melting snow, and you might well ask why no tractor help.. tractor tyre marks on the grass. Simon was happy that the course had taken the weather well and was even amazed to see some grass growth.. The ground is currently described as soft and good to soft in places and with not a huge amount of rain forecasted the likely hood is that the ground on the first day will be good to soft and after 4 days, good… So be warned don’t go mad backing heavy ground horses. |
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But that is not what Claisse himself reported officially yesterday - go figure.
 He told Racing UK: "It looks as if with this milder weather it's going to stay unsettled, with bits and pieces of rain which will probably keep the ground where it is. "Friday-Saturday looks like it could be pretty wet, with 10 or 12 millimetres - half an inch of rain. The BBC Countryfile forecast also suggested a band of heavy rain on Friday for what it's worth. Most forecasts are also suggesting some rain Sun-Tue? However they did say it was a difficult pressure chart to predict and the jetstream may move south or north. Hopefully we will have a more concrete forecast by the middle of the week. I'd say it's currently 50/50 whether it's predominantly soft or good-to-soft (market here agrees) so I'm happy I took 9/2 and 3/1+ on soft whether it wins or not. |
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The shaman-like Claisse is a law unto himself at this time of year.
Watching Britannia on Sky Atlantic I was reminded of Simon Claisse every time the druid character Veran popped up on screen. |
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over recent years it never rains as much in the Cheltenham area as the forecast or people think it is going to
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Claisse at the Baseball Ground circa 1973 - "Good to Soft".
Claisse at Morecambe Bay mudflats - "Good to Soft". Claisse in the middle lane of the M1 between Watford Gap and Toddington - "Good to Soft". |
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In fairness to Claisse, he can't win. He just isn't being dogmatic about any eventuality because he rightly knows that nobody has the faintest clue what the weather will do a week away.
If someone says 'could it be heavy Simon' he has to say maybe. |
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I think Simon Claisse does a fantastic job fronting decisions that must be taken in committee. I understand he honed his skills working for the UN walking around Sarajevo in a hi-viz vest at the height of the Bosnian War.
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Amazing insight from Kim Bailey.....I bet they hung on every word.
Why tweet that Simple came round for a watercress sandwich and Iced tea? A canny way to deflect attention from the culprit no doubt. Right now all we need to know is that we have a Festival being run on natural ground,the damage done to the course by introducing the drainage remains,Lord knows how much water has to go onto this track in the summer/autumn time,the last two meetings were a warning that minimal rain and it turns heavy. Henderson and others will rock up this weekend coming,telling all what a wonderful covering of grass,course immaculate etc etc So it should be.....by his own admission,90% of the ground has not been used since last Festival. Just think how many horses that want deep ground,have been denied a chance at the Festival over a number of years,incredible this situation has been allowed to happen. Ignore everything that comes out of the track,total hogwash. |
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Well said nocturnal. It seems to me the bright idea of bottom of the Claisse back in the nineties was to drain water away as quickly as possible leading to faster ground and rightful concern about horse welfare that led to the creation of the current artificial watering policy. That policy is the nub of the mystery. When it's dry you don't know how watering is affecting the ground and when it's wet close to or during racing you don't know the compound effect of prior watering.
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Next Race Meeting 13/03/2018
Report Date 05/03/2018 14:39:00 Official Going Soft Good to Soft in places. GoingStick |
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they are maximums mate and grass needs it all day
think its 3 days running as well to get it going |
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Pretty positive forecast from racecourse but I think a wee bit of caution is prudent until post this saturday and then next wednesday into thursday where the most precipitation have been anticipated.
I'd like to see the ground no worse than good to soft. |
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started raining about 3.30 light at first now raining much harder time now 6.45 will keep u in touch
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Thanks 'thinker', and keep us posted, please. Much appreciated.
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Yes, much appreciated thinker
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Latest from Claisse this afternoon...
The going at Cheltenham on Monday was soft, good to soft in places, with the racetrack free of snow, if not the whole site. Clerk of the course Simon Claisse said: "The track's clear but we've heaps of snow pushed up in various places elsewhere. It was dry until 4pm, when it started to rain as forecast. We could get 2mm tonight. "I've left it as soft, good to soft in places everywhere. The outlook remains unsettled for the week with up to 20mm of rain in the next six days." |
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Its raining heavy right now - and will be until midnight ....then light rain until 2am - then it will be clear for the next 2 days
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https://cleeve-weather.grg.org.uk/weather.php?date=Today
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