Cheltenham Festival
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Festival Weather Watch
Festival Weather Watch
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Claisse on ITV4 Opening show just there from yesterday
Ground is still good/soft (good in places)  what ? |
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Yeh saw that.
Course covered in snow and when that thaws with rain forecast,it Wont be good/soft then.. |
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Rain forecast nearly every day and potentially heavy rain next weekend - soft or even, god forbid, heavy is nailed on if that's correct.
I have soft backed at 9/2 and 3/1 and have added a stakes saver on heavy at 12/1 I've also just laid all the good-to-soft bets that were waiting on here as well - even money, should be 25/1.  Always the best market of the year imo - my Cheltenham will be paid for before the first race.  Obviously the weather forecast isn't set in stone beyond a couple of days so I may see my arse yet which I'm sure will make many of you happy. |
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Given the above I suggest you all get on Samcro for the Supreme @ 14/1 nrnb with b365. Can't hurt that's for sure and might be a gift horse.
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Sound advice imo Uncle.....im on.
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Before piling into soft/heavy You have to bear in mind its normally heavy/or soft heavy in places 10 days before the festival drying out to a good to soft on the opening day.and in some of the recent years going by the times it was more like the quicker side of good
If you check the records from the local weather station you will find Jan/Feb 2018 have been very dry by including comparison with previous years. Prior to the snow on Friday the previous fortnight was less than a 1/3 of an inch of rain. So when the 3 inches of snow melts that equates to around another 1/3 of inch of rain, which in Claisses terms will probably remain the same. The key will be the weather 3/4 days before the festival including Day 1: and as usual relying on a forecast that far in advance is wishfull thinking . |
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Betting on anything is effectively ‘wishful thinking’, would be pretty boring otherwise.
Just look at MVG losing at 1/50 last night - anything can happen. |
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Not really my thing to bet on the going,but good luck to anyone that does.
What i will do though is take a look at prices for horses that act on soft ground,especially in this freak year where snow is covering the course with 10 days to go and rain is forecast. |
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The going description for the Cheltenham Festival, set to get under way in ten days’ time, could feature the word ‘heavy’ in the run-up to the meeting.
That was the message yesterday from clerk of the course Simon Claisse, who also estimated there may be more than 200 tons of snow to remove manually from the course. Speaking just before 1pm, Claisse provided an update on the ground, which had been left covered by snow after the storms that have battered Britain in recent days. He said: “The sun tried to poke through this morning, but it’s become very grey and murky now. The thaw is just beginning to start and the temperatures are just a couple of degrees above freezing. “It could possibly get a bit milder this weekend and then into next week. I think the ground will be soft when the snow melts, but it’s hard to tell at the moment while it’s still thawing. We think the snow will have amounted to about 12mm and the forecast is showing it could be 15mm of rain by next Sunday.” |
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Rain forecast almost every day according to BBC, had a dabble on Samcro at 14/1 nrnb for Supreme
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Asked if that meant ‘heavy’ would enter the official going description before the meeting, Claisse – whose groundstaff will be swelled by around 40 to 50 extra workers to help move the snow next to the fences and hurdles – replied: “It’s possible, yes.”
Even with that strength in numbers the shovel-wielders may have their work cut out, with Claisse saying: “We think there could be 200-plus tons plus of snow to shift manually, where it has drifted up against the fences.” Where those fences are on the cross-country course those drifts are between four and six feet deep in places, with Claisse observing: “Not only is that slower to thaw, but you’re depositing a lot of the precipitation in one place.” |
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unclepuncle I think you're betting on the actual going, when the market is based on what Simon Claisse announces. See the Claisse conversion table below:
Firm = good gd/firm = good good = gd/sft gd/sft = gd/sft soft = gd/sft sft/hvy = gd/sft heavy = gd/sft, soft in places. |
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Haha. Brilliant Pjay.
Uncle. We do this every single year. And every single year it's G/S. There is only light rain forecast all week. It's going to be G/S again. |
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live 8 miles from the track there has been a very quick thaw was temp was 4 this afternoon several hours of rain this evening will update every day
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my weather got pretty warm temps next week a bit sun and wind will dry it quick
the rain forecast is what claise would chuck on it it will be a drying soft, described as the usual good to soft |
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Mr Claisse can really now put his feet up now with little to trouble him.
Let’s hope so. |
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Rain forecast virtually every day next week and the week itself on two differenb forecasts i just looked at,not sure how much but i am not being too dogmatic about the possibilty of soft or worse,just cos it normally aint.
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The Metoffice forecast is the driest, whereas the BBC, Metcheck, Accuweather etc all suggest various amounts of patchy rain during the week, with potentially heavier bands next weekend and into Cheltenham week.
Obviously nobody really knows but given the odds I felt backing soft / laying good-to-soft was a good bet - could cancel my positions for a nice guaranteed profit, but where's the fun in that.  |
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drifts are between four and six feet deep in places, with Claisse observing: “Not only is that slower to thaw, but you’re depositing a lot of the precipitation in one place.”
Could he even extend it to Good to soft, soft in places ,heavy in other places!! |
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They often have extreme going on the cross country track so that is entirely possible.
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if weather forecast mild, why are they moving snow manually??
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Just had a look at the course from the far side. All of the snow on the main hurdles and chase tracks has gone. There is drifted snow up against some fences, particularly on the cross country course. Looks like mechanical equipment working on the course perhaps moving this but it was too far away to say exactly what they were doing.
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Claisse is a martyr to the cause. He just loves bigging himself up at this time of year.
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Soft, Good to Soft in places as of 8.30 this morning.
http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.uk/plan-your-race-day/visitor-information/the-going |
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[ This image is no longer available. ]
[ This image is no longer available. ] [ This image is no longer available. ] these were taken yesterday lunchtime |
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Looking at a few of the long range forecasts I would guess that the meeting will start off soft/good to soft in places.
Wednesday the same Thursday soft Friday could be heavy Forty |
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Where are we all getting our forecast of loads of rain from as the MET office shows very little rain due after today until Saturday, says 80% chance between 3-4 and 70% chance between 4-5 and then the forecast hardly looks that bad the rest of the week, if the snow is now gone and the ground is Soft (good/soft in places) it would take way more rain than is forecast by the MET office to turn the ground the way people are making out.
Good to Soft should still be fav for Tuesday (imo) and should be a shorter price than it is going on the forecast I am looking at |
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some forecasts show rain everyday from now to end of festival but if you actually look at each day individually it only means chance of rain most days and very little if it does rain.
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Yeah i looked at the forecast and it is 2 days pretty much without rain and most other days with around a 1 in 5 chance of rain, a couple 1 in 3. Claisse would be sticking water on the track in the run up anyway so it looks like he will be aiming for good ground with the weather doing the job for him.
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The 7 day weather forecast summary for Cheltenham Racecourse:
Over the next 7 days the Cheltenham Racecourse forecast suggests the average daytime maximum temperature will be around 8°C, with a high for the week of 11°C expected on the afternoon of Sunday 11th. The mean minimum temperature will be 0°C, dipping to its lowest on the morning of Friday 9th at -1°C. Expect the week ahead to have mixed weather with some days dry and some seeing a little rain. It looks like Sunday 9th will have the most precipitation with an accumulation of around 13.0mm. On the whole winds are likely to be moderate. |
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From 'God' himelf:
Clerk of the course Simon Claisse expects rain and milder temperatures in the build-up to the four-day Cheltenham Festival, which begins on Tuesday week. He told Racing UK: "It looks as if with this milder weather it's going to stay unsettled, with bits and pieces of rain which will probably keep the ground where it is. "Friday-Saturday looks like it could be pretty wet, with 10 or 12 millimetres - half an inch of rain. "We may have heavy in places before we start, but let's remember that there have been plenty of years when we've been soft the weekend before the Festival and have ended up good by the Friday." Seems like his weatehr forecast is similar to what I based my predictions on - lets hope it's right. |
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Who says there is rain forecast every day?
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MeteoGroup. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2653261
They say light showers throughout the next fortnight - If it were to rain on just on 1,2, or 3 days on the weekend before the festival could actually be enough. |
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The rain will be more heavy down on Friday, Saturday, and into Sunday
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The next 5 days have the chance of light rain - I;m sure a couple of days will be totally dry. I can see it going back to good-to-soft (maybe with soft in places) by Thursday.
It all depends on next weekend and the Mon/Tue - the current consensus is that it will be low pressure and at least one band of heavy rain (1/2"+) and then plenty of drizzle/showers. Can easily change though. The Countryfile forecast is well worth watching tonight that's for sure. |
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I've had about 7 inches of snow thaw from the garden over the last 24hrs and I'm surprised by how good the ground is after it.
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https://www.racinguk.com/news/cheltenham-ground-easing-ahead-of-festival
Its the rain that is coming on FRI,SAT,SUN next week that will make is SOFT or worse - its going to be heavy rain across all regions. |
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Ladbrokes slashed their price on heavy going for the opening day of the Festival on March 13. Heavy is now 9-1 with the firm, from 25-1.
"Due to a flurry of bets, combined with the latest reports from Cheltenham, we have had to slash the odds on heavy going on day one of the festival," the firm's Nicola McGeady said. stfu Nicola with this bullshat, I'd be shocked if your firm even have a 4 figure liability on "heavy going" |