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Just hope he’s not another No More Heroes, Death Duty etc
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Easy. I never expected you to take it as a negative!
Only positives allowed with Samcro :) |
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Job done.... nothing to fear there.
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Nothing to fear from the performance of Next Destination at Naas today, I think.
By the way there was nothing wrong with No More Heroes. He was a very good horse but was given a bad ride in the Albert Bartlett; he'd have won the RSA had he not sustained a fatal injury after jumping to the front 2 fences out. I think Death Duty was running in the wrong distance in the last Cheltenham Festival, similarly in his next race. Let's hope he could atone in the JLT in March. |
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Well it looks like the very genuine Jetz ran his race yet again. So given Samcro beat him by 12l in facile fashion, us believers now have some decent form line to quell the doubters.
As far as the comparisons to NMH and Death Duty, they both never ran over 3m under rules before they competed in the AB so the trip was always an unknown. In my opinion it's a huge ask for a novice to run over 3m+ at a tough course like Cheltenham and at break neck pace. I think that's why so many hyped up favs get turned over in both the RSA and AB. Can't wait till Leopardstown now. |
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Personally thought Next Destination jumped excellent today, very slick at his hurdles and kept jumping up to Jetz and then Paul would reign him back. A stronger pace and getting a better lead I think will see him in a much better light and he should get all that at the festival in the Ballymore. Really like the horse.
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Ballymore is likely to be a small field. Doubt the pace will be a typical Cheltenham race if it is a small field. If next destination makes the running he will play in to Samcro’s hands.
Slow pace won’t benefit on the blind side either. I’d be very surprised if ND runs in the Ballymore. Another point to consider is the slow pace wouldn’t have been a benefit to the 2nd. All in all I think Samcro supporters are not too worried about ND. However,we will see on the day. Good punting Forty |
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The pace in the AB will be even slower. I'm sure WP has plenty of slower types for the AB. Can only see ND in the Ballymore.
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You may be right Arkle but I think you should consider how far Samcro would have beaten Cracking Smart today. Samcro is quick enough to be considered for the Supreme and “slow” enough for the AB.
Mullins likes a winner and I’m sure he knows that ND will not beat Samcro based on today if they meet in the Ballymore. Forty |
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How do you know how far Samcro would have beaten Cracking Smart today without the use of a Crystal Ball Forty?!
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CCM - as you know I cannot be specific. But telll me he wouldn’t have won. The pecking order at the stable is clear. Samcro is No 1 by a margin so using that as a guide, Samcro would have won the race.
If you want to get a more reliable guess of the distance he would have won by then ask GE. Good punting. Forty |
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CCM - as you know I cannot be specific. But telll me he wouldn’t have won. The pecking order at the stable is clear. Samcro is No 1 by a margin so using that as a guide, Samcro would have won the race.
If you want to get a more reliable guess of the distance he would have won by then ask GE. Good punting. Forty |
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Haha. Would have helped had he been fit though to be fair.
The less we see of Samcro, the better he appears to get. |
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Samcro is good. ND didn’t enhance his profile today imo even though he won a grade 1. By the way CCM, have you had a bet in the race? If yes, who?
Regards Forty |
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Really? The race wasn't run to suit him at all and he's won probably the best Novice race of the season in Ireland... yet he hasn't enhanced his reputation? I find that a really odd thing to say... especially when the Mullins horses don't appear to be fully firing.
I don't think a Grade One should ever be taken for granted, yoube only got to look at the fact Samcro couldn't even make the race. I've only had one bet in the Ballymore Forty... On The Blind Side. But have backed ND any race at 10/1 as well. |
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Was tempted by the 10/1 any race, but being greedy and going for the extra few points. Supreme is a definite no-no, so looks like the decision will be between the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett. Considering how late he stayed on in the Bumper, and the fact he is a 3 mile point winner, Im more than hopeful this will be the race. Will obviously depend on what else they have as usual.
From your opening post in AB thread |
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Yes I have backed ND for the AB at 16/1 then later added him any race as I was unsure what race they would choose.
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How could he have enhanced his reputation because Cracking Smart got closer to him today.
Forty |
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Because they went no gallop and he hit the front too soon. As PT said, it was a messy race today.
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It certainly didnt suit Cracking Smart.
Anyway good luck CCM and we will see on the day. Hopefully both get to Cheltenham. Forty |
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No it didn't suit Cracking Smart either, and he think he will go very close in the AB. Yes we will indeed... good luck yourself.
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I hope those bets are e/way
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All in Easygol
Forty |
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I`m only joking.... the beast will be too quick for all of them on the day. If all goes well until then. But this race has been done and dusted since early national hunt season.
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Last year Melon (Supreme), Neon Wolf (Neptune) and Death Duty (Potato Race) could not be beaten...
I remember a few years ago watching the BF Cheltenham Preview online. Mark Winstanley was sitting there spouting that Pont Alexandre could not be beaten. In fact, were it to be beaten, his kids would be getting Pont Alexandre betting slips for presents for the foreseeable future, as he'd done so much money on it. Last year he was going on about Death Duty... Same result, and I dare say he'll be on this year's panel ramping up Samcro. To those backing Samcro, good luck (especially those with double figure tickets), at the price, based on what he's achieved, he's not for me. Based on today's evidence I have backed ND for the reasons others have already listed above. And please remember there is no such thing as a certainty in horse racing, no matter how good the horse is. I leave you with one word in terms of a race 'done and dusted' at the Festival: Douvan... |
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Easy - number of beasts before Chelts / number of beasts afterwards is normally about 3 to 1.
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A really good performance from ND today. He gave an exhibition of how to jump a hurdle.Assuming all goes well in the meantime, he's a serious contender whichever race he turns up in at Cheltenham. I'd be pretty certain that will be the Ballymore. If not it will be the Supreme but it definitely wont be the Albert Bartlett.
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O/T
Was Altior not 5/1 for the Arkle after winning the Supreme? I'd a voucher indicating that. Regards Douvan, was there not a rumour Douvan was 'off-colour' before the last Champion Chase? Samcro had looked impressive, so far. I understand he'd not beaten much but the over-rans had done him justice in their subsequent races since. He won all his races with the minimum of fuss eg barely out of 2nd gear. Of course, all value is gone now nevertheless, I'd expect his price to be even shorter than present come race day with/out Next Destination. |
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'but it definitely wont be the Albert Bartlett'
What makes you so sure ftv? ND aside, Cracking Smart looks like being short priced fav for the AB, and having beaten him comfortably enough twice, they would surely fancy they could beat him again? |
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Just can't see it happening CCM. He looks to be Mullins best novice hurdler at this stage. The AB is just such a tough race for inexperienced novices. Mullins has run plenty of bankers in it over the years with a similar profile to ND and they all got turned over and very few of them ever trained on afterwards.
Penhill, on the other hand, had a very different profile. A seasoned, battle-hardened flat campaigner who had been hurdling through the Summer and had lots of experience. That will be very much on Mullins mind at declaration time.When he finds a winning formula, history shows us he doesn't change it. He has one or two others with a similar profile to Penhill who will run in the AB. ND will almost certainly run in the Ballymore but if he does have a change of heart he will go down, not up, in trip |
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Can't argue with any of that mate.
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I didn`t back Melon,Neon Wolf or D.Duty last year..... and who is Mark Couch... he is a comedian for the panel nothing else
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Yep, absolutely makes sense that FTV.
Gut feeling is Neptune, but Supreme would not be a total surprise. Strong traveller,great jumper and better ground looks to me will suit. |
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I firmly believe Samcro is a future Gold Cup horse and not a Champion Hurdle contender. He'll most likely run in the RSA in the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, all things being equal; the Gold Cup would be next the following year, all being well.
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Is there a singhe person on the planet who think Samcro is a future Champion Hurdler?
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Lol..impossible... DON`T upset C.C.M with comments like that....
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I meant because he will be going chasing easy... nothing to do with his ability.
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If WPM doesn't believe he can beat Samcro then he won't run ND in the Ballymore. Agree that ND will go down in trip for the Supreme.
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easygold, CCM does not come into the equation when I post. Horse racing is all about opinions, and as such take it or leave it...otherwise get out of the "kitchen" to borrow a description from the culinary world.
A previous winner of the Lawlor ie Bellshill was dropped in trip and ran in the Supreme, but for the ownership of Sharjah Next Destination would also certainly line-up for the Supreme because I just cannot see he is good enough against Samcro in the Neptune. I cannot get a price for Samcro for next year's RSA and/or any future Gold Cup (here) otherwise I'd have a few quids on. |
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I'm truly hurt, impossible123.
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