Cheltenham Festival
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Samcro
Samcro
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2/1 !!???.........worlds gone mad!!
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The form of his point to point is good in the context of 3m chases. Irrelevant for 2m hurdlers! I'm on Elegant Escape for the 4miler.
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Some classic comments on this thread, been havin a right laugh reading through it.
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6-1 or upwards and you have a decent bet. Anything under 5-1 at this stage is absolutely bonkers.
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As always,time will tell if a bet placed antepost is value or not.
Whilst it is clear those who took 12's,10's etc etc,are beating the book at this stage,that is all it is. Would I be happy with double figures or close to that....yes, am I bothered I have not.....not really. Its early December. I appreciate that after reading this thread that it is known how many runners and the opposition that will turn up in March,but unfortunately I don't, so am more than willing to wait a bit until parting with any cash........if indeed I do. If Samcro turns out to be next Pegasus so be it, and well done those who got in early if he is. |
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The hurdles races anything can run out of its skin, jump a clear round, have its preferred spring ground come the day at Cheltenham. Taking prices like this so far off for a novice hurdler is financial suicide long term whether he runs or not or wins or not.
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Forget the price now. It’s not value.
But just listen to the interviews with Jack Kennedy after Samcro’s 2 wins. You can see it in his eyes, smile and what he says that the horse is special. Rather than knocking the horse......enjoy the rise of a possible superstar. All of the arguments below are very similar to those when Faugheen arrived on the scene. Price of Faugheen was bigger but that was because Mullins and run the horse over 3 miles and has a history of indecision. Samcro is the price he is because the Trainer has near enough said that he will be aimed at the Ballymore. I just hope he stays fit and well so we can see how he progresses. I can agree with MOL on one point......he is not the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ! Forty |
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I will tell you the other side of the coin.
1984 the Irish were shouting out this novice who couldnt get beat at Cheltenham he was exceptional and he came over here to be trained. I remember being a young lad only into racing a year or two and wanted some of this hype after all the horse couldnt be beat as a novice at the Festival. So i took the 5/2 antepost for the Triumph Hurdle. Counting my money coming to the last upcomes this no hoper running out of his skin on the day at a double figure price, Northern Game he was called. The horse in second was mine, race video below ... i wont be taking 2s novice Samcro for march not in a million years. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ot5lAVCMsPY |
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Jockey on the winner was Roy Rogers as well didnt stop it causing an upset.
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Forty
I don't think anyone is knocking the horse,just saying he ain't value at 2's,which you agree on. Of course we will all watch and enjoy if he turns out to be a goodun,just like we would with any other horse,well I would anyway. |
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One is absolutely correct the value for Samcro is long gone and lucky for those in much earlier as they are already in profit with a freebie as bonus. However, his price will shorten again if he hacks up in a more competitive race in the near future and vice versa - that's racing.
Similarly, Faugheen prior to his return. Again, he'd be shorter on Champion Hurdle Day, all being well; he'd be shorter than his present price if his 1st run back after the injury was last season. Similarly, Buveur D'air as he seems to have improved disposing of the field in a canter; his price may shorten too prior to the event in March. Value is relative to future results (positive); time of event; opposition on the day. Nevertheless, participation is an absolute must otherwise the value is near negligible without using the Exchange, I believe. |
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Most guys are on a long time ago and we all know Ante-Post and that`s the risk we take. As said before we knew it could jump, a no-brainer , not like every day we see decent bumper winners fluff their lines in novice hurdle races... a point to point winner and bumper form is miles ahead of just been a bumper winner when backing Ante-Post that`s the main reason myself and many others took the big prices on offer before he jumped a hurdle in public.
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quick question to all that believe he is a good thing...would you take 2/1 now on this horse?
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With all the justified hype around SAMCRO it may have escaped some peoples notice the horse who came one length 2nd to him in his winning PTP (they were 20 lengths clear of the rest) was ELEGANT ESCAPE who since then won a couple of novice hurdle races and ran a decent race in 2017 Albert Bartlett and this weekend won a decent G2 novice chase at Newbury jumping very well and with real style. If SAMCRO really is that good then ELEGANT ESCAPE might be worth taking notice of for a small wager in the 4 Miler. Am I dreaming ? or mad ? or on to a goos thing ?
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Nope
Forty |
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As per my post earlier on this thread Billy, I've already backed him for the 4 miler at 33/1. Taking a similar route to Native River, before he ran there.
Was slightly worried JT mentioned the RSA after his last win, but thats the risk you take. He's actually 40/1 for the RSA and as low as 16's for the 4 miler so fingers crossed that id the race |
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It obviously didn't escape anyone's notice. I am off the pace ............ as usual. For what it is worth I am thinking more a 4 miler from watching him this weekend. And Tizzard Snr does like the 4 mile race on the first day. I'm in at 33/1 and 25/1. You pays your money you takes your chance. Good luck to all.
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Come on Harry we have covered this.. the 5/1 was the advice for the people who were not on already.... 2/1 ante-post will suck in the mugs doing multiples shortly when they win a few bob daily.... with Faugheen,Apples e.t.c....
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well just keeping things honest easygold
the reason i wanted to know is if he is the aeroplane everyone thinks he is, people should be happy to accommodate the lower price, you clearly don't believe in the shorter price which means all people have at this stage is a price edge at this time i was just seeing whether people believe in his form that was all, somebody has to keep the thread honest easygold otherwise people will just believe they are just picking the money up for free and they will not be imo |
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Harry - got to factor in getting there....dont we?
Forty |
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There’s that many of us on at fancy prices he’s bound to end up injured and miss the festival anyway, sods law
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Check out the final furlong podcast dated 27th November.
Further positives re Samcro Forty |
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Imprressive recent wins from Ontheblindside and Getabird - no longer quite looking the penalty kick some are claiming.
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OTBS= A.BAR.... Getabird, not in the same parish as this fellow.... I wasn`t impressed with Getabird when u are talking about a horse for a Cheltenham contest.
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I like Samcro and On THe Blind Side (OTBS). This race could have a similar look to the Supreme when Altior and Buveur D'air were less fancied than the talking horse Min; a savour could be advisable should OTBS is in opposition.
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OTBS= A.BAR
Not according to his trainer easy. |
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Well if Samcro lines-up in the Ballymore he may have a chance for a place.... but if he runs in the A.B he has a solid chance for the win.
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Leopardstown Wed 27th Dec 1.502m. Hurdle Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hdle (Grade 1)
SAMCRO v Willies Best |
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And Mengli Khan. Not so sure Samcro will actually run in this myself though.
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More than likely Samcro will wait for Naas, 6th of Jan as said by trainer after last run/win.
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Looks like they aren't keen to take on Next Destination!
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i would only offer one bit of advice and that it get your money back if you can
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Why’s that Harry?
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the horse has a problem bluebird and is a ridiculous price anyway, so why would anyone want to hang on when they can lay off?
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Haven't seen any of his races this year (just read reports) but I'll back him on the day because as a massive Sons of Anarchy fan, if I didn't and he won, I'd be devastated
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Matched at 2.74 for the Ballymore/Neptune for £199, unbelievable!
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They will find out more info by running other horses from their camp about Next Des.... because Samcro leaves them all behind. Plus I`m sure Leop would love to see him run in early Feb.
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I'd have thought the plan would have been to run here AND Leop in early Feb though.
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3 starts before the Ballymore is perfectly fine, many previous winners and place horses have done the same.
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