Cheltenham Festival
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Samcro
Samcro
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Ya, when MOL stated a handicapper of his in a big race had little or no chance but scooted up doing handspring a few minutes later. That's why MOL is an airline magnate, and Elliot a horse trainer.
I think, after his victory in the Monksfield over 20f, the Neptune/Ballymore is his target race. I hope he stays sound; I've succumbed to the "hype" and done a double (any race) with Faugheen. He could be another Don Cossack, but without Cooper onboard. |
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Well Don Cossack didn't even run in a novice hurdle at the festival, and took 3 goes before winning a chase there - though that was at least the Gold Cup.
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I think Death Duty could follow DC in due course, really impressed me yesterday, love that bowed head in determination style.
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I think 2s in a novice race 3 months away is verging on crazy but WD to all those on at fancy prices. Does look a monster though
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If Death Duty stays 3m+ (he did not seem to in the Albert Bartlett last year) then the chance of him emulating DC is good. Also, he seems to have progressed from last year; his fencing is economical and sure only 2nd to Footpad, the other novice fencer.
I've been impressed with Samcro. He's won his races (so far) with the minimum of fuss,...an inch of rein he was off putting distance between himself and the 2nd horse; he seems like a horse with greater potential than No More Heroes was at this stage. If he wins the Neptune/Ballymore next March he'd be a Gold Cup contender in 2019 for sure, I believe. |
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Impossible123, which firm did you do the double any race and Faugheen
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Easygold, has lovely prices and was stating 5/1 was value before his recent win for Ballymore and feels it will be odds-on come March, seems like he will be right. A stronger run contest will play to his strengths and leave these for dead.
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penny1939, with Sportsbook.
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Cheers
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Leave who for dead penny? You dont even know who he will be facing yet!
He will have to be a bit special if is going to leave the likes of Getabird and Next Destination 'for dead' imo. |
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Next Destination has no chance to travel on the bridle and hold his position while Samcro will be still on it and when the button is pushed will be left for dead. N.Dest would be better going for A.Bart..
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And Mullins may run Getabird in S.Hur because of Samcro in the Ballymore
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And surely u know Samcro is very special
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Hear,Hear
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CCM
Would you back Samcro at 5/1 now? Penny1939 - points well made Forty |
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Penny... I don't see any way WPM would run a Novice in the Stayers Hurdle. And especially not because of one horse like Samcro. And as for Next Destination, did you not see his performance last time? Miles better than anything Samcro has achieved so far to my eyes.
Penny.. define 'very special'? His form was largely worthless until his last run, and even that was average form at best. Of course he has been very impressive and is clearly very exciting, but I've seen countless hype horses over the years and prefer to wait until they have solid form in the book. I'm not saying he won't end up being a superstar, but he is being given this status far too soon. Look at Mengli Khan. Top priced 15/2 for the Supreme having won three races this season very impressively including a Grade 3 and a Grade 1. Yet Samcro is 2/1 and hasn't been anywhere near Grade 1 horses (possibly nowhere near Grade 2 or genuine Grade 3 horses either). It just doesn't make sense to me more than three months out. I'd be tempted to back him at 5's forty, but only if I was being sucked into the hype. Definitely not based on the formbook. |
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I'd add I have backed ND for the AB, but still think he would run a big race in the Ballymore.
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CCM - time form rate Samcro’s form equal to that of MK but Samcro has a large P.
I accept 2/1 is tight to say the least but there are not many who would lay it at a bigger price. Forty |
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CCM - I have also backed Next Destination but for any race as I rate him the next best in Ballymore but believe he will run in AB to avoid Samcro.
Forty |
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CCM - I have also backed Next Destination but for any race as I rate him the next best in Ballymore but believe he will run in AB to avoid Samcro.
Forty |
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I can't agree with Timeform at all Forty.
Which piece of form puts him anywhere near what MK has achieved? Which proven horses has he beaten? Yes he's done it well, and people will say just watch how he moves, hurdles etc. But loads of horses have won poor races impressively so far. As I say, I don't want to come across like I am not a fan of the horse, as I am. But the hype has got particularly daft on this one imo. |
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I`m sure Penny means S.Hur as Supreme Hur for Getabird.... So u thought 5/1 was short now 2/1 is too short wait until he wins again and u will be saying odds-on is too short..
M.K will do well to get a place in the Supreme... |
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Oh right. Don't see that. He's entered over 2m5f at the weekend and he's said he's a stayer.
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Each to their own easy. Hope he wins for you all. Just not my thing from a value perspective.
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Races by name fool punters that Grade 1 and Grade 3 M.K won are very poor i.m.o I will be shocked if there won`t 2 or 3 better come March.... to me he looks a horse that may lack the speed u need for Cheltenham.
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Catch.... re-watch all Samcro`s wins and look how easy he does it..... if you can`t see how "special" well that`s fine. But this fellow has me more impressed than U.D.S first win and look what he has done..... I rarely compared horses because it means nothing to me.... But when I go out of my way to give an opinion about a horse that is the time to take note.
VERY SPECIAL "means wait and see this fellow go unbeaten for a long time barring silly mishaps.... just sit back and enjoy Sammie will do the rest... |
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But when I go out of my way to give an opinion about a horse that is the time to take note.
 Didn't realise I was in the presence of greatness. With all due respect, every racing fan alive can see what Samcro is. It's hardly like you have unearthed a hidden gem... He's been the biggest hype horse of the season. But it's a question of value for me. He's got to get to the race in one piece first off all, he's got to handle the track and everything that goes with winning at Chelts, and even greats like Denman didn't win this race. When I factor in everything, I think 2/1 is a joke. But as I said, good luck to those who have backed him. Value is in the eye of the beholder and all that. |
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Easygold. I think you will see a few that ran behind MK in the Royal Bond go on and frank that form myself. Certainly they are in a different league to Jetz, Good Thyne Tara etc.
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Regardless of where you stand on the relevance of comparing race times, MK ran the final circuit 15l faster than Apples Jade did in the Hattons Grace. Not bad for a horse that lacks speed.
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It was 5/1 for a long time and you thought it was a joke of a price and all that..... 12/1,10/1 8/1 7/1 but ur like many... u have to wait until it happens then it`s too late.... the point to point was the key effort
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M.K will always beat Jetz and G.T.Tara because those two a slow horses and need a trip but Sammie is a different kind of animal..... M.K i.m.o will lack the speed you need to RETAIN up the hill against better horses... he has a quirky type of racing i.m.o and could be a PLACE LAY on the big day depending who runs and all that.
Sammie wasn`t always 2/1 you do know that..... that`s where the homework is done before it all happens in front of your eyes and the price (i.e value) and it`s too late. |
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Im not behind anyone mate. I was backing MK at 33/1 as per the thread, when Samcro was 12/1. He's always been too short for what's he's done for me. I. Not sure why it's particularly difficult to grasp.
Good luck. |
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Ah stop if you can`t see Samcro won`t be TOP DOG I give up..... Take Care Now.... Don`t be afraid to hedge your M.K bet, If i had 33/1 I would be doing that for sure the form is not strong.
Thanks for the chat, look at all the people reading this thread and saying nothing...... at least u are chatting. Fair play .... C.C |
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I'll definitely lay some off when he gets to about 3/1 after winning again over Xmas
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I really find it odd you are talking MK down, on the basis of his form not being strong, when his form is without any shadow of doubt vastly stronger than Samcro's!
I'd definitely say Samcro will end up the better horse, but that's not the whole story with antepost punting. |
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Samcro will make MOL eat his words, given time. He'll turn out to be the best NH horse MOL will ever own, better than Don Cossack.
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We’ll see what he is really made of when there is a pace on from the start with 20 horses attempting to run their best race of the season on quickening spring ground totally different to Ireland.
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His sire didn`t mind goodish ground and Sammie didn`t mind it either..... the quicker they go the better for Sammie, he is the stayer with speed and stamina don`t forget. May have only 12-15 runners too. And the form of his point to point is solid if you gauge the runner-up who did well the weekend.
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