Cheltenham Festival
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Another impressive bumper win today at Fairyhouse
Trying to figure out where he goes but hopefully he will be double digits for the any race market when they become available, I imagine he and blow by blow will be kept apart in either a Supreme/Neptune or Neptune/Albert Bartlett combination
Trying to figure out where he goes but hopefully he will be double digits for the any race market when they become available, I imagine he and blow by blow will be kept apart in either a Supreme/Neptune or Neptune/Albert Bartlett combination
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Where do people think he'll be aimed? I wonder if Death Duty running so poorly in the AB last year will mean Gordy sends him Neptune route??
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"Everything he did last season was amazing. He’s a horse that really excites and we are very lucky to have him. It’s hard to know how good he is. He’s got the pace for two miles, but he should have no problem staying well either. He’s going to Tipperary for a schooling hurdle on Friday and granted all goes well there, he’ll start off in a maiden hurdle in the next couple of weeks. I think he’ll handle any ground".
From Gordon Elliotts stable tour for ATR website. Lots of other horses with mentions on ATR website. |
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Support for Elliott's SAMCRO in the ante-post market for the Neptune. 16/1 into 10/1 with BVictor.....generally cut to 8's yesterday as he's beating Group 1 Beckford at Gordon's home gallops.
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Yet more proof that much of the the value in Cheltenham AP punting has gone. 8/1 or 10/1 without even jumping a fence in public, and with his target not clear.
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Samcro 1/3 in his maiden Hurdle - 2.05 Punchestown 2moro.
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Up against an interesting one in Jack Dillinger 5/1 with Ruby on board
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I know we shouldn’t get carried away by the race he won but that really impressed me, just reminded me of a certain Faugheen. Hope he takes the same route towards the Ballymore although Gordon keeps mentioning his 2mile speed
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Single figure price with so many options and might not even make the Festival. Novices are becoming very poor value now connections can mislead you onto several different races these days.
To put it in perspective if a novice has a choice of 3 races (thats ignoring them also being considered for the Champion Hurdle or Gold Cup) and is 8/1 for each race ante post, you are getting just 2/1 backing level stakes each of the 3 races. Yes that's 2/1 to get to the race without injury / redirection and to actually win the most competitive novice race over the trip of the year. Is it not far better value to back a 2/1 shot such as Cracksman this weekend with a definite run for your money? Obviously it is. Cheltenham ante post is now virtually giving money away for single price ante post novices long term. |
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Samcro's price is ridiculous for what he has done so far, faugheen himself was a simular price 4 or 5 days before the neptune
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Samcro's is being price sliced for The a Supreme now, from 20s down to between 16s and 10s on the price boards. I couldn't understand why he was more than 3x bigger for the Supreme c/w The Neptune, and now the differential is shortening. Royal Bond over 2m grade 1 mentioned as possible next target, in 6 weeks.
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Will be close to odds-on come March, hopefully, the Ballymore
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Take the 5/1, if you're not on already for the Ballymore..... there is nothing in that Division to worry about.....
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impressive as he was easygold he is no price as we stand, still lots of novices to reach the track
i have to say i do love a ramp horse lots of edges to be gained |
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Yeah, I`m happy with the 12/1,10/1,8/1,7/1 odds and I went over the possible opposition but my opinion is that come March he will scare off all connections, if you could mention the ones who you feel that hasn`t reached the track that your employing I would be happy to give my opinion
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thats fair enough at those odds but doubt he will be scaring horses off, he looks a nice prospect yes but unless you have the odds you have played at he makes limited appeal with 4 months to go
i have a nice horse i am playing at the moment at big odds but haven't got what i want on yet and no need to rush either with a horse like this taking all the market don't get me wrong easygold he looks a nice prospect but no more to me at this stage and his price is horrible in my book anyway |
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But we knew about him all last year and we knew he could jump, it was a no brainer to take what odds were on offer..... people wait too long to see the debut.... I agree on the ones that have only bumper form, but beasts that have point to point form is a bigger ball game altogether. What will happen is that he will win a small field contest on his next start on the bridle and will go into 5/2,9/4 and then win in February similar and will be 11/10.
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that maybe the case and will lead to value in other runners so hopefully he takes a lot of money like death duty did last year i still haven't got him running that fast but no doubt he will come forward...i'm looking forward to seeing him left handed as he still hasn't looked great going that way round and in all fairness i'm not sure what he has beaten to say yes he is a very good horse, i don't buy some of these figures given for winning weak national hunt flat races
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Cheers Harry, best of luck ....
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didn't mean to seem brutal easygold and wish you well with your wager, i'll pm you the one i like when i've put the pieces together no doubt i've fecked it up like i do with most national hunt racing
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Not at all Harry, I love debates about racing
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Samcro is one of the most promising novice hurdlers in Ireland and is set to reappear at Navan on Sunday. The five-year-old chestnut glided to victory in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last month and is on course for the Grade Three Monksfield Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles. Elliott said: "At the moment, the plan is to run Samcro. He's in good form and he'll do a bit of work (Tuesday morning)."
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Not sure whether to back Samcro for the 3m novice hurdle at the festival in march or for the 2m5f novice hurdle as Elliot looks to already have a strong hand in the albert Bartlett with Cracking Smart
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oh just looked at the 2m5f novice hurdle betting and samcro is about 9/2, that looks the target then, may have to leave it alone as that's a very short price this far out from march given it only won a maiden
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having said that, will probably bolt up tomorrow and get cut to 2s so maybe a smart bet
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Don’t discount the Supreme!
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I’ve never known the stable hype any bore as much as Samcro.
I noticed this horse thanks to this post when it was first put up. I then watched the race and decided he was going to be my main ante post bet for the festival. I read a couple of books about him and Jamie Codd was very complimentary. I have placed most of my bets any race but I have placed bets on the Ballymore. I have subsequently found an article in the Irish Examiner which astounded me. http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/racing/samcro-is-as-good-a-horse-as-well-ever-see-461816.html Let’s hope it’s all true. Forty |
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Forty. Not sure about that but wouldn't be surprised, that was sheer class today. Exciting prospect.
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Investments looking good after that...
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Rare to see a horse glide up the Navan hill with such ease. Reminded me a bit of Footpad a few weeks back. Exciting times indeed.
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Impressive, looks like the further the better for him, an accurate but not particularly quick/slick over his hurdles for me, like you'd want from a Supreme type.
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Some comments after he saunters to a smooth success in the Grade 3 Nov Hdl in Navan to make it six from six...
Samcro can actually roll up hills Absolute monster Here comes the Cheltenham hype in November Remember Melon last year. Dunguib? However Cheltenham spring ground and the best one..... This is Michael's best Aeroplane WOW.....The jockey has to pay 6 Euro for his seat tho ! |
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Been on him any race for a while
He's the most exciting novice hurdler I've seen in years He just looks like an absolute monster |
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what did he achieve the other day that he didn't achieve in his equally weak maiden hurdle?
i ask this, in regards to his full scale price crash for beating bad horses twice now? |
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Totally agree Harry. Clearly he's very exciting, but his form is almost worthless. His price is a complete joke. One of the worst I've ever seen in the last decade of antepost punting. Vautour was 7/2 the week of his Supreme!
I think you'd have to be stark raving mad to back him at 2/1 now. |
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Mengli Khan and Next Destination have both won much stronger races just as impressively and are 12/1 and 14/1 respectively.
It's purely on hype. |
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you can't beat a good ramp horse can't catch me all we can do is try to get him
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His owner, a Mr M O'leary rubbished the hype surrounding the horse. He compared it to that of Death duty last year.
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ImpossibleI agree.
When as MOL ever misled anyone? Forty |