Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
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In relation to what he's done it is
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Only 5/2 and 7/2 for Neptune and Supreme respectively but 8.6 in the Exchange for the latter. He exudes class, jumps well and possesses the best form eg beating Elgin (easily). The only unknown is the extra 4f in the Neptune (preference I believe).
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There is no way beating Elgin is the best form in the race.
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If the prices of Neon Wolf and Finian's Oscar are short for what they have done then you've probably not heard of Melon, the winner of an egg-and-spoon race at Leopardstown where no winner has come from the over-rans since.
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Various factors get you to a price, melon has got where he has on the back of glowing reports from the most powerful NH stable in racing, it's not form on the track but it's still a strong pointer. On comparison I'd see more value in that than the actual form that NW and FO have achieved on the track.
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I'd tend to agree if Closutton at present were enriched with championship potential juveniles but it is not. I also believe if Nero Wolf, Unowhatimeanharry and possibly Death Duty were trained by Mullins they would be a lot shorter than they currently are. But Melon at 7/2 for this race is a lay esp if the likes of Defi Du Seuil/Charli Parcs/Finian's Oscar's or Neon Wolf gatecrashed; I'm just waiting for race day to lay this Closutton "beast" when the runners are known.
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I thought Neon Wolfs Haydock win was the most visually taking novice performance of the season.
Haven't got a penny on him for the Neptune so I hope Messire Des Obeaux can beat him. |
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Can't Catch Me 06 Mar 17 18:13 Joined: 02 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 24,633 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
There is no way beating Elgin is the best form in the race. In fairness to Neon Wolf he beat fresh air that day and without really turning a hair. His time and sectionals compare very favourably with that of The New One & Clyne from the same card. Whatever race he runs in he is going to be the most likely winner imo as he has looked a street above whatever else turns up. |
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Moon Racer has the best form that I can see.
Beating Ballyandy and MWTT looks better than anything else I have seen. Think the race hinges on his appearance....or not. |
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One things for sure, can see a couple surprise results this years fez, even in these graded races.
There is no real hot pots at ridiculously short prices [a good thing] this year. It does not mean that the races are weaker that a lot of people have been eluding to it just means we have proper competitive races at the Olympics of jump racing for a change. Just because you lost your house when Faugheen and co was pulled out through injury don't mean these races are any weaker. I tried in vein to get on ontheline last night to make that point, fecking 3 mobiles and a house phone ringing for an hour and a half yet you had utter d!cks wasting everyones time clogging up the phone lines. Have also send messages and tweets to Matt and co for last two weeks to try to get him to announce a forfeit if Limini won the Champ hdl lol but no one has bit yet. Anyways, these hurdlers to me are all much of a muchness. Novices improve at different rates. We've taken to liking them at the top of the market because our eyes told us that won more easily than any of the other entered protagonists in that there festival race though none of them have actually met each other, as of yet. What about if one or two of them had niggly problems in their preps, ie crack mome? One things for sure, there's a lot more if's but's and maybes this year than normal |
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Whatever race he runs in he is going to be the most likely winner imo as he has looked a street above whatever else turns up.
All about opinions dyno layer. And obviously Neon Wolf has looked visually impressive and falls into the 'could be anything' category. Im not saying I dont like him or he cant win. He may well annihilate them. But at this point in time, its simply impossible to argue his form is better, or that he has achieved more than Bacardys. Twice placed and once successful in the 3 Championship Bumpers last season, and a recent Grade 1 winner in one of Ireland's premier Cheltenham trials. I can accept some thinking that Neon Wolf has more potential, but his form isnt better. |
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Fair enough..Its all about opinion and interpretation.. Im basing my opinion not on collateral form but by sectional time performances.. i would much prefer him to run in the supreme but its all about opinion...He can win either race
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Of course if the ground dried out then i wouldn't even expect him to run
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Really? Cant see Claisse letting it be any better than good to soft, and considering they have a short priced Fav for the Festival and one of the biggest talking horses of the week, I'll be amazed if they scratch him.
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Hope he runs in one or tother BUT i do think he is a horse who will not be asked to run on anything other than ground which is genuinely on the soft side,,,, regardless of what calamity class calls it ( which will be good to soft )
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Probably get the softer ground on day one hence why i much prefer the supreme for him
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When I looked yesterday their was rain forecast for Tuesday,depending on timing that could make Wednesday softer!!
This will go to last possible minute imo. |
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novices are exactly that and any contenders ... owners and trainers will know what might be achieved .. ??
CINDERS AND ASHES ...A FEW YEARS BACK WAS THE BUSINESS AND WAS ALWAYS GOING TO WIN . AT A DECENT PRICE .. well tipped near the time once the lolly was on .. mainly on the day .. yet a little whisper did reach a mate .. 2,500 miles away .but mum was the operative word .. ?? . Funny game and real competitive race for a starter ..?? |
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They may have fancied Cinders & Ashes to run a very big race but to say 'he was always going to win' is classic aftertiming.
 I wouldn't even dare say Altior or Douvan are certain to win, let alone a 10/1 shot in a hurly burly 19 runner novice hurdle. It's not like he went on to be a champion or anything. |
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no timing involved but ..was put up on the form days before .. many people knew about this one ..??
look back if you wish it is there .. watching RACE UNFOLD he was always going really well .. and looked the part . a top tip ..from holiday makers ..THEY KNEW ?? // I .knew nothing other than it was well tipped .. the people watching knew it would not stop that day .. ??? ..AND IT DIDNT STOP .. Sorry you find it upsetting somewhat ..  .. game ...many don't ever win again ..>> thats life .. MOVE ON .. |
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grumpy - shut up you idiot
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Will Melon turn into a lemon come next tuesday?; will Bunk Off Early be the 1st in the queue?; will Ballyandy get his revenge on Moon Racer? Or will Moon Racer reign supreme?
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the vibes for moon racer don't seem that good for either race judging by the markets
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impossible123 08 Mar 17 08:42 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 3,416 | Blogger: impossible123's blog Will Melon turn into a lemon come next tuesday?; will Bunk Off Early be the 1st in the queue?; will Ballyandy get his revenge on Moon Racer? Or will Moon Racer reign supreme? it's possible. Or could be a lemon surprise  |
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market indicating neon wolf more and more likely to run here - fav with some of the NRNB firms, only had one more run over hurdles than melon but the form and style is much better, long time since david pipe pulled a rabbit from the hat and scudamore one of my least fav big stable jocks so can't have moon racer, ballyandy probably the danger as betfair hurdle form is usually solid but saw it beaten by moon racer at perth and again at cheltenham and IMO not a good enough jumper for this race but at least it's a strong stayer..hoping harry does the right thing and runs here because bacardys/willoughby court could be harder to beat in the neptune
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neon wolf out to 20s on here so drifting imo.......if he runs, he would be fave , hence the stance by those bookies offering NRNB
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yes 20s is big, 5 day decs tomorrow but would expect most of the big guns will stand their ground pending the weather
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moon racer jt 5th fav in a small field of 13 (maybe down to 12 if VVM not declared) for the CH, considering its age and apparent 'difficult to train' surely runs in CH if at all?
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Declaration stage is today not tomorrow, they are out now.
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26 left
Azzuri Ballyandy Beyond Conceit Bravissimo Bunk Off Early Capital Force Cilaos Emery Crack Mome Elgin Glaring High Bridge Labaik Magna Carter Melon Mohaayed Montalbano Moon Racer Movewiththetimes Neon Wolf Peter The Mayo Man Pingshou Pleasant Company Riven Light River Wylde Airlie Beach Let's Dance |
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A bit surprised to see Let's Dance left in.
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No Finians Oscar.
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rease
i don't suppose you have got the link for the ultima entries have you? i can't seem to find it on weatherbys |
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I don't, mate, unfortunately - just copied 'em from PA Racing Twitter feed.
Have you tried BHA site? - I'll take a look now. |
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no Defi Du Seuil or Charli Parcs in Supreme either
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can't find it rease annoying
budd quick question i've got a friend to bet on with hills...how does this insurance bet work he is saying it is only up to £25 is that correct so you would the bet if it is higher...thx if you can help |
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Yes it is Harry. Non runner insurance up to a max of £25.
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Anyone fancy movewiththetimes ? Looked green last time at newbury
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that's only if it goes for another race though Harry. If it misses the Festival, it's money back. Slightly confusing.
Place your Cheltenham Festival ante-post bet with William Hill and: ‣ If your horse misses the Festival, your selection will be voided and you’ll get your full stake back. ‣ If your horse runs in a different Cheltenham Festival race to the one you have backed it in you’ll get your stakes back as a free bet to use at the Festival, up to a maximum of £25 for all bets placed on that horse. |
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MWTT looked green to me as well - hanging in behind Ballyandy....... have to say, i thought BOE ran green as well at Leop - he spent the straight looking at the crowd!
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