What about Champagne fever

and ebaziyan and tourist attraction, looked them up as they didn't immediately spring to mind

did he flop?, he got beat, but he was arguably inconvenienced by injuring himself mid race and was getting beat by a real star.....non of which exist in this current field....with the possible!!! exception of Moon Racer IMO who may not even run in this.

yeah how exactly did Min flop, second in the supreme after being slightly hammpered and beaten by a potential superstar who has smashed up everything he has faced over fences, horse in 3rd unbeaten over fences in two outings and 2nd fav for the champion hurdle. Would love to own such a flop!!

Whether Min was injured or not we can only take the words of connections nevertheless he was well beaten in the race despite starting 7/4 fav (I believe).

Ballyandy and Moon racer were closely matched on early form but the former was over-raced; a different horse when coming back fresh after two months to win the Betfair Hurdle last month.

As I've said earlier we are never going to agree on Melon, and only time will prove who is more right.

All about opinions and all should be welcomed that the point of forums

Mine for whats is worth is that this race has been a mine field for a/p punting all season. Now that we have arrived closer to the famous roar of the supreme there could be a number of different results and maybe we look back and ask how the winner was overlooked. Moon Racer has the best form in the book with a trainer that year after year fails in graded races with fancied horses Grand Crus, Dynaste and more recently Kings Palace. It just seems he panics and doesn't know how to prepare the good ones. W Mullins seems more adapt at getting his animals there to perform to the best of their ability, with 10 entries still in the race maybe he is expecting improvement on spring ground from some of his so called outsiders. Having just watched a replay of Melon he certainly looked a good ground horse and strides the ground like a vatour, maybe thats why he hasn't raced on winter ground. I have a bet on Cilaos Emery unfortunately at 12s after his win at Navan and will be a watcher with this interest only. I hope Moon Racer runs in the Champion so I can lay him with confidence. I have nothing against the horse but that trainer has made layers.

If Neon Wolf runs he'll have a favourite's chance - he's just awesome!

Impossible are you old enough to bet,you don't remember champagne fever,you seem to dislike WPM,and with his record the last few years you couldn't have done so good unless your the h'cap king

apologies for the awful typing. Hope you got the gist.

My take on Melon:

I totally understand why he's favourite, but...

For me, Melon is no value at the price, but then I'd say Neon Wolf isn't either in the Neptune (actually he's not really value in this anymore considering he's unlikely to run).

It all depends on your take on value, for some 4/1 will be well worth it. Come Tuesday afternoon we will find out, but as I've said about other horses, I can hat tip him if he wins, I won't lose sleep for not having backed.

Wouldn't it be boring if we all backed the same horse!

I liked Melon is n't worth a carrot better than the lemon variations.

Kinda wish he was entered in the potato race

of the 22 winners of the champion bumper prior to moon racer/ballyandy only the very first one, montelado, and champagne fever have won the supreme - of course not all of the 22 ran in the supreme but it's not a good stat, so sorry buddeliea not sure if that form line and/or betfair hurdle is in fact the best, although in a match bet i'd have moon racer as despite it's 'history' it still beat ballyandy twice and you know the definition of insanity! 

albeit neon wolf may not have the best form, I was at uttoxeter when it beat a fairly decent looking bumper field and subsequent two hurdle runs have convinced me that it has the best potential - still have fingers and toes crossed it runs here instead of neptune

why are people banging on about melon's inexperience?

it's a novice hurdle for crying out loud. it's not like he's going up against horses that have run 30 times. they're ALL inexperienced.

can someone name me a horse that failed in the supreme due to a lack of experience? or any other novice hurdle race at the festival?

I've always wondered how good Spirit Son might've been? It's often forgetten Geraghty opted to ride him over Sprinter that day.

Perfect example wellchief.

I think there have been plenty of Supremes where horses that have been beaten, have gone on to be the best horse from the race, thus proving inexperience cost them that day.

Clearly Melon's inexperience is a huge factor. Else more trainers would wrap their stable stars in cotton wool and just run them here.

what's the saying, lies, damn lies and statistics?

the day I start caring about how many starts a horse has had over hurdles feel free to shoot me

Sprinter was very keen as a novice hurdler who had trouble settling.

All his races were mickey mouse ones before the Supreme, with this last two being 2/9 and 30/100 SP's. His defeat to Frascati Park showed how green he was and doubt he would have learnt anything off the following two runs.

I'd say without doubt be didn't have the proper racing experience and he was looked after by McCoy on the run in; All Ferof was much more battle hardened having ran in the Bumper and in much higher standard hurdle races

just because sprinter sacre failed due to inexperience (if that was even the case) doesn't mean melon is going to....

I'm not wedded to the stats and some of them don't bear much scrutiny but 11-13 with 4+ hurdle starts tells me that experience is important.

Mullins won the Neptune with Fiveforthree after only one hurdle start but he'd finished 5th in the Champion Bunper the year before.

Horses that started their career on the flat don't have a great recent record either - that could be down to the ground being at its slowest on the first day.

None of this means Melon can't win but the price is skinny enough given the potential negatives - as Budd states above, we all develop and stand or fall by our own methods, if Melon gets smashed in to 11/10 and wins by 8 lengths, I'll live with it and move on to the Arkle.

It's quite possible sometimes to eliminate every horse in a particular race by applying the stats blind, so ultimately you have to exercise your own judgement. I'm personally not comfortable with the idea of backing Melon at his current price based on the visual impression of his maiden hurdle and the stable vibes.

I accept plenty will be and they may well be right.

I would have given High Bridge a big shout but he's being ridden by the owner's inexperienced son which is a sickener. He's won a few weak races on the horse but his style over the hurdles is awkward and he hasn't the experience to hold and keep a position so will go the long way round. Also doesn't receive his normal 7lb claim. It's John Ferguson's call who rides his horse but I don't think he's doing right by the animal.