Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
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Free bets credited by 10am the morning of the race the selection is entered to run in. So if you've backed Charli Parcs for the Supreme and it runs in the Triumph you can expect your freebet to be credited no later than 10am next Friday morning though i expect it will be much sooner given that it could be difficult if say a selection that was backed for a race on the Friday ran on the Tues.
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thx lads helpful to know we haven't done our coconuts
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Why isn't it just money back regardless of whether it runs at Cheltenham or not? If it doesn't run in the race you've backed it for it is a N/R....or am I missing something
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eat some MELON
it's always good for you  |
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duffy 08 Mar 17 14:39 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 17,326 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Why isn't it just money back regardless of whether it runs at Cheltenham or not? If it doesn't run in the race you've backed it for it is a N/R....or am I missing somethingConfused generally these things are settled on the day of the race, not entirely sure why I guess just mainly for clerical purposes and to avoid confusion |
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its staggering the lack of genuine grade 1 form in this race, looks 1 of the weakest renewals of the supreme for a while
on form the newbury race looks the best on offer (of those that look likely to run) and its proved a fair guide in the past |
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king1111111 have backed mwtt,he will be a pound better off with ballyandy and has had less racing but tha twister horse is a tough bugger but at the prices its mwtt for me will look for another one for backup nearer the time . nicholls seemed quite keen on the betfair preview !
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I'm sure I'll end up throwing a few quid at Glaring at a silly price on the day if the ground comes up similar to last year.
I wish he'd run in the Dovecote to give us a better clue though. |
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This is only three months ago Hendo was reckoned to have two live ones in Jenkins and Charli Parcs; the former has had a setback thus missed the race; the latter, after a tumble at Kempton and probable softer ground on tuesday, has been withdrawn today.
Moon Racer and Ballyandy are closely matched on early form - the best on offer - I believe. As for Melon, perched at the top of the betting market,...the less said the better! |
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the less said the better why?
it's fav for a reason. |
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Melon has no chance, look no further than moon racer Bally Andy and movewiththetimes
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I'll look no further than melon's connections and their domination of this race in recent times
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No chance
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the last 3 for mullins had all won graded hurdles
when vautour and champagne fever won this they were a similar sort of price to melon but they were rocking up after winning the deloitte!! melon has won an egg and spoon race and is a massive guess up imo, not for me at the prices |
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happy to stick with BOE..... shorter distance and ( hopefully! ) better ground should see further improvement in him
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To say Melon has 'no chance' is plain daft. Has Bunk Off Early got no chance either?
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I think Melon is a 'lay' at evens to 5/4 for a place ie 1st, 2nd or 3rd, if anyone is staunchly against him.
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agree 100%, will wait for 4 place market though to lay odds on
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Well I'll be backing Melon, obviously not on the formbook, but he's not got the form in the book because he's not had the racing to put it in the formbook, so to support him you have to look for other positives and Mullin's enthusiasm is a massive plus.
Mullins enthusiasm is encouraging because it's coming from someone who's had Douvan and Vautour win the race for him, now I'm not saying that he's the same as those two but Mullins reaction to Melon's chances isn't being gauged against his other perhaps sub-standard novices this year, as, although that may make him the best of his he knows that being the best of an average bunch wouldn't make him the winner. You have to reasonably come to the conclusion that for this man to be enthusiastic about a horse to win this race he must have to be doing that much more than the next horse because in his mind he would be measuring that horse, not against his current crop, but against his previous winners. Now we're not putting Melon in that category, but for Mullins to be as enthusiastic, particularly with his history, it must count for a lot. As for Elliott, claiming his horse was useless, well yes he probably is but Melon didn't make hard work of it, he beat him by 10 hard held and could have won by half the track if Walsh had a mind too. |
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Yep,its part of punting these days(at least at Cheltenham),listening to Mullins,with no form for back up.
Each to their own. Has it paid off yet?? |
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Well Bunk Off Early has been second in a Grade 1 and looked a pretty exciting horse to me.
Yet Ruby thinks Melon is better. Can't believe some are completely dismissing that. |
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Budd. It's paid off countless times surely?!
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But Elliot's horse was indeed useless (to borrow his expression); the others in the race had not won a race either between them since; the winning time was always shoddy too. Unlike Vautour or Douvan Melon did not run in the Deloitte or Moscow Flyer.
This year's Supreme may not include another superstar like Altior or maybe Douvan (same stable as Melon but only beat Shaneshill and ADO, a 3 miler). And at 3/1 or evens for a place is a good proposition to lay, in my book. |
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You have to take notice of it to varying degrees,because to dismiss it you are basically saying that mullins doesn't know what he's looking at when working his horses...and that is bonkers!!!
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Of course Mullins' opinion is relevant. He could run a Champion Hurdle in his own yard but for injuries and horses gone chasing. If he believes he has a top class unexposed horse then he, more than anyone else, should know
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The horse isn't favourite because he's trained by Mullins "per se", he's favourite because Mullins thinks he bloody good, that's the difference.
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Has it Catch?
Maybe its me then,but I cannot recall too many Mullins winners at the festival with the form that Melon has. |
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Like I said.....its part of Cheltenham punting now.
Looks like we all agree. |
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Crack Mome is far and away my biggest winner having nibbled away at him at 25-40 for the last few months.
Think he'll be bang there two out, though might not find enough up the hill so will put up an in-running lay on the day. |
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Only bet I have is massive odds on Glaring as it stands.
If I thought Neon Wolf would run I think his price is fine right now and I would back, but don't think he'll run, then I like Moon Racer but don't think he'll run!!! Then it's MWTT, although 9/1 is very good but only if the other 2 don't run, so I'm loathed to back him in case the other 2 do end up here. Bit the bullet and backed MWTT and hope the other 2 end up elsewhere. |
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fiveforthree had a similar profile
so did flown anyway I'd rather not listen to mullins, what the hell does he know. I'd rather listen to some random forumites who I've never met, they're the real experts  |
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To me it is all about value, nothing else at this juncture. Hence, Melon at 3/1 or evens for place is a lay all day long, Mullins or no Mullins; the holy grail says Melon ain't got the form to wear the head honcho betting market hat for this race; I'd lay Melon from the shekels I've made from Limini's red herring.
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Moon Racer is the one, can see him winning in the same style as Altior, Hes not a flashy bridle ponce, just a grinder who will accelerate up the hill.
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Surely they must know what they are doing with moon racer, either he is going for the champion or he isn't don't see the point of leaving him in both races up to the 24 hour stage, is the champion field really going to change that much. To me they have dragged out a decision much longer than was required.
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I think connections of Moon Racer will be most probably go for the Supreme unless one or two key protagonists exit the Champion Hurdle scene early next week, otherwise they would have declared him for the latter race by this time.
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Is Ballyandy really going for this race?
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I was at a preview last night and the panel said they had it from a very reliable source that Moon Racer was going Champion. So I can't understand why he's doubly declared.
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I read somewhere just recently Twister indicated this is the one. A much better chance esp in a strongly run race, and best form to boot too. Moon Racer and Ballyandy to fight out the finish, I reckon, with Melon unsighted.
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I reckon that Melon's lack of form is becoming less of an issue when I see Ballyandy as 2nd fav
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