I get the impression they will go for the Neptune as well.

what got me interested and the lights flashing  from the betfair preview was hint that charlie parks is on target for the triumph ,after  looking likely to contest the supreme before the kempton fall last weekend ,jp has a strong fav for the triumph in defi de suil but is still if i am correct sending charlie p as back up ,this is leading me to think that they may think they have a very strong candidate  for the supreme in p.nicholls movewiththetimes, 2nd in the betfair hurdle and on an upward curve and available at double figga prices on here , also charlie parks who hendo thinks the world of apparantly is also a juicy price for the triumph now ,no telling if he would have won or not on saturday but dave yates (despite being riddiculed by elliot nicholls and co ) view on the betfair preview was that despite charlie parks being ridden from 3 out he was staying on strongly and indeed jumped the flight level with the winner when he came down,i watched a replay again and yates is right imo  ,my point is charlie parks is too big in price as he may well have won on saturday and if defi du suil is such a good thing why run charlie parks in the triumph ,also the fact that hendo is looking likley to run him speaks volumes to me .its nrnb with most firms so if he is a noner then no harm done !

the more the merrier !shocster ^^^^^^^^^^

I think the point RE: CP was that he was catching up yes, but the winner hadn't even started racing through all of that catching up! and when the winner was asked at the end of the race he went right away relatively on the bridal!, it's some stretch to imagine CP matching that having been off the bridal for so long, he may have stayed on all the way to the line but he wouldn't have matched the winner.

They probably know Ruby rides Melon Catch.
Mind you that don't mean BOE cannot win.
He cant ride both, and they do get it wrong sometimes.

backing Melon in the next few days, that should be

I just wish i held up on laying off my 14.5s and 15s on here till now lol although i still have my 12/1 voucher too

They're probably casting their minds back to the festival bumper and thinking well, we've got Yanworth covered for pace that's half the battle.!!

Yes they are waiting to the five day stage, I think they will stay in the supreme myself.

^ Good point. He does this a lot, which is mildly embarrassing given his record at the top table in recent seasons.

When he's confirmed he's surely a 10/1 poke? I see that as a bit of value and can see him being strongly backed all day long. Moon Racer i mean.

I personally have my silly head on [when haven't i lol] and think the Pipes have made their mind up and the money from the stable staff is slowly being put down as we speak with person who laid it to 80 in supreme being given a stern talking to with he or she being told 'u silly person it looks obvious now'

harry -- I meant it is embarrassing that Pipe seems to always contemplate the open-company option and the novice race for his best novice each year before normally going for the novice race, and, normally, finding out that his horse isn't even the best in that particular race. I think his strike-rate at the top level is really poor for a trainer with so many expensively bought horses.

Specifically with regard to Moon Racer, I don't think it would be the worst decision to run in the Champion, but I do think the Supreme is the right choice. This may be a winnable Champion but it is less winnable than the Supreme and it's asking a hell of a lot for a horse to win it with so little hurdling experience. I am lukewarm on Limini but would rather back Willie Mullins making the decision to supplement an improving, unexposed horse than David Pipe running a novice against non-novices in a championship race.

Full disclosure, I am nailing my colours to Buveur D'Air's mast. If there is a star in the field I think it's him.

add to that the SUpreme looks a relatively weak affair. With Melon whilst impressive 1st time up has had the form let down 2nd fav Ballandy Moon Racer seems to just have his measure. Moon racer has a serious chance of taking the supreme be surprised if he ran in the Champion.
Gordon Elliott 1 week ago Tombstone for Champion backed into 16s  now any price you like but then again he did learn his trade from the pipes.

tomdeane

but would rather back Willie Mullins making the decision to supplement an improving, unexposed horse than David Pipe running a novice against non-novices in a championship race.


if mullins was supplementing her with already having a Faugheen or AP in the race it would be something to sit up and take notice at, Yorkhill would have been his first reserve IMO, but that's out and after gleaning a modicum of encouragement the other day she's just the next dart in line to throw....her price is awful.

I'd much sooner pick MR out of those particular two, Even though it was the bumper, I'd just watch that race to see his class and without his problems who knows where he would be now, he'd be the value if he gets there.

If Limini gets supplemented her price for the champ hdl will plummet, i can honestly see her going off fav' if momentum builds and why shouldn't it its wpm/rr after all and rw would be sure to ride

I think the market is already reflecting that she's nearly guaranteed to be supplemented.

Agree with STS if Limini is supplemented with Ruby on board i can see her being made  fav by the high street books up to the day of the race so they can take as much as they can as low as they can just by popular sheep like syndrome.
As for going off fav i doubt it


But yer canna have it both ways STS if she is going to be fav then Moon Racer will not be a 10/1 shot thats then backed all day long

Assuming all the other main protagonists show

I've had a few quid on here today on Neon Wolf for the Supreme. Having backed it for the Neptune NOT NRNB thought I better cover myself with plenty of rain forecast.  Would rather have cover for a small stake.  Just double stuffed should he not turn up.

One other thing I want to get off my chest. Is the long absence not a concern for Moon Racer? Not sure whether it's due to his well documented fragility or did Pipe say back in the autumn that they'd leave him off until now? It should n't be ground related because both his wins earlier in the season were on officially soft ground - not the same as deep mid winter ground admittedly.

It's plausible that the likes of Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes have improved past him for racing - especially if they have had no hitches in their training and he has.