Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
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Replies: 404
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Genuinely? Like I said - fetch my medication!
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Have him backed in a £20 double Ballyandy 15/2 won yesterday and oscar for Neptune at 4/1
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Why are you ill delsie777
  You did post Finian's Rainbow after all  |
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I'm surprised Tizzard said he was none too wiser about Finian's Oscar next race after today's exertion at Exeter; I believe he also said he would be looking for an advantage of 4/5 lbs (in rating) over the others. Is that a possibility? In the Neptune Finian's Oscar will meet Neon Wolf (confirmed target); in the Supreme it could be Charli Parcs, and both are rated fairly similar to him.
Personally, Neon Wolf is a more formidable opponent than Charli Parcs as he has solid form, looked more of a stayer and natural hurdler whereas the latter has had only one run and lacked experience. This could be the race chosen by connections of Finian's Oscar, I think. |
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I thought -- like a few on here -- that Bunk Off Early ran a lovely trial for this today before being outstayed on soft ground over 2m2f. His form is already much better than Melon's and the 16-1 on offer looks too big.
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How many Fred's is this on now it's getting boring ffs post the proof
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I'm starting to really like the look of Bunk off Early for this now, though that might have a lot to do with i still have a live 25/1 voucher in the running for this race
 to go with my 12/1 melon and 7/1 CP though have 50s NW it is only a very small stake and is prob neptune (hense my 12/1 bet and 8s any) bound. GL all 4 weeks to go  |
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lot's written on here but am struggling to see why we are getting such a good price on ballyandy and movewiththetimes, surely imo the best novice hurdle run this season, yet we are getting 14/1 and 20/1 respectively the pair, in an open year am i missng something seems generous to me? i'd take the mcmanus horse but both look like improving plenty, i suspect they will run here but could be wrong of course
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harry, wait until you are sure which race they are aimed at. T-D mentioned Neptune and even a handicap for Ballyandy and he looks held by Moon Racer.
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"lot's written on here but am struggling to see why we are getting such a good price on ballyandy and movewiththetimes, surely imo the best novice hurdle run this season, yet we are getting 14/1 and 20/1 respectively the pair, in an open year am i missng something seems generous to me? i'd take the mcmanus horse but both look like improving plenty, i suspect they will run here but could be wrong of course"
Wouldn't be backing either of those pair without NRNB so say 10/1 and 14/1. Even then they still look overpriced based on current form but there's a 500lb Horse in the room that you are aware of. Should be out again in a couple of weeks. PP have him priced @ 7/2 NRNB. They know. |
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Melon out to 6.2 on here
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i haven't bet lads just thought they we're over priced for this...i would say movewithetimes would be a runner here over ballyandy but gave up doing the guessing game long ago, just thought the newbury race was under rated by the market from what i have seen of the other novices this season that is
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I wonder if the Melon drift is anything to note, or if it will be a temporary thing. I just wonder if people are thinking Ruby might now rather be on Bunk Off Early after his run yesterday. Not that I would take anything Ruby says too seriously, but he has only been passingly complimentary about Melon (at least with regard to the form in winning his maiden hurdle). I'm not sure it's a given that he rides the jolly.
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5/1 is still way too short. If either Finian's Oscar or Charli Parcs pitches up Melon could be double figures on the day, I believe, on present form.
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Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes up to 147 and 146 respectively - difficult to win a handicap off marks that high but not impossible.
In the last 12 years, the highest County Hurdle winner was 144. If up in distance, they're now too high for the Martin Pipe (0-145), but both would be inside the recent Coral Cup winners ratings of 153, 148 and 149. Ballyandy most likely to be upped in trip, so Coral Cup could be a possibility for him, but I'd be surprised if Movewiththetimes ended up in anything other than the Supreme. |
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NTD said supreme for Ballyandy at the weekend Chief.
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Will Moon Racer be here or Champion?
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Here as far as I know.
Has CH been mentioned by anyone? |
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Yeah saw that mate, just responding to a few posts mentioning the handicap route as a possibility.
I'm torn whether I think Ballyandy should be in the Supreme or Neptune - I get a feeling he'd be slightly better over a longer trip (Sam TD apparently favours the Neptune). I thought his Betfair run was a good run, but conidering he did it off 135, Darlan and MTOY were 11 and 13lbs higher a few years ago and still couldn't win the Supreme. He is as tough as old boots though, stays well, and has good form over 2m, so he has more than earned his place in the Supreme lineup if they go that way. |
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Media speculation but Pipe said on his own blog last week that Supreme remains the target.
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^ to Mary and budd re Moon Racer
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Cheers Rease,did not know that mate.
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Thanks mate, just seems a bit weak for the Supreme considering the form boost
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melon wins.
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poor betfair hurdle and as said above, classier horses have did it off of higher and not won the supreme.
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Far from ideal for Melon backers with Broken Soul running into a laboured third at Navan just few minute ago. However being one of them, I find the reaction fascinating. Lets be honest, Melon couldn't have won any easier than it did and it wont bolted up by 10 w/ its head in its chest whilst still chomping on the bit. Yet because the 2nd comes out and gets turned over, that automatically means the prior winner isn't any good. Im all for form lines, but taking one from a race where the winner could have won by a postcode if he wanted is a little luke warm for me. Funny old game this
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He is 7/2 fav for the Supreme on the back of beating a horrible screw, he could be the second coming but i am sorry where he trained anywhere else he would be multiples of that price. Of course people are going to look for holes to pick in the horse, he is a short priced fav off the back of 1 run which amounts to zero.
It doesn't mean he won't win or cannot win. |
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plus he is called Melon ffs, surely the god's that be cannot let a horse called Melon win a big race at the festival
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Crievehill runs in the 2.00 Huntingdon today. He was 11L behind Neon Wolf at Haydock on his last start. It will be interesting to see if either Sir Antony Browne or Glaring can beat him as convincingly and throw their hat into the Supreme pot.
Glaring won on his debut over C&D beating subsequent winners and would have gone very close at Kempton at Xmas, but for a terrible blunder 2 out in the race won by Elgin. He was previously smart on the flat rated 108 at his peak and 66/1 NRNB seems worth a go. The same price is available on Sir Antony Browne 66/1 NRNB if he takes your fancy. If either should win easily, then their odds will tumble and if they blow out, I should think they won't run next month at Cheltenham. |
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Agree with your observations about Glaring and have been keeping an eye out for his entries over the last few weeks.
Unfortunately Huntingdon is now off and he has no current 5 day entries so they face a race against time to get a prep into him before the Supreme - would n't be ideal going there on the back of his Kempton blunder without racing for the best part of three months. I'm surprised they've not run him before now but suspect they've been waiting for better ground. |
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Yep, getting tight now for a prep. But was off 3 months before hurdle debut success. I'm sure they'd prefer another run though so will keep my out for Glaring.
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Crack Mome getting shorter on here with a few quid up now. Was something proven to be amiss last time
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Any Second Now didn't do much for Crack Mome's form there
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David Casey at a Preview last night, said he had heard Moon Racer was proving very difficult to get right, and he thought he would miss the Festival
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Yes jb, it was Lismore.
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Pipe in weekender " I must warn readers we are thinking seriously about the champion hurdle instead. He is already 8 and it might be wise to give it a go if the field continues to cut up.so we will have a look at the 5 day entries and make a decision then.
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What's interesting is Yorkhill and why he ain't three figs now for champion hdl. I think moon racer is shorter as it's obvious he's being thought about him being 8 etc etc. But Yorkhill? He's solid 7/4 fav for the jlt so what is 55 to 65 all about? Plenty horses are 300s plus that have objectives in a different race eg. Still very suspicious imo.
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Incidentally I had 6 on at 30 moon racer last night thinking about on racer. And am keeping Yorkhill a mighty large green justjust need case
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will ballyandy run here do people think? i'm getting the vibe he may jump ship to neptune?
i'd quite like him in the neptune if they chose to run him there... any thoughts i haven't played yet on either race |