Cheltenham Festival
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09 Jan 17
16:04
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Date Joined:
02 Apr 03
We've had a few threads for separate horses, but thought it might be easier to keep it all on one thread now.
Plenty of support for Cilaos Emery the past couple of weeks and starting to look as if he is the WPM first string for the race. Decent enough effort beating Joey Sasa who has since franked the form. Perhaps tells you everything about the weakness of the race this year though. Melon has been pushed out by PP and the fact he hasnt run yet, surely suggests he is up against it. Crack Mome has also been pushed out by PP.
Im still hopeful Jenkins can run well in this. Too bad to be true last time, and maybe, just maybe he won't go right handed? I've topped up at 25/1 and happy enough to hope he can run into the places.
Disappointed it looks like Saturnas is going to be stepped up to the Neptune as think he could have run a big race in this.
Plenty of support for Cilaos Emery the past couple of weeks and starting to look as if he is the WPM first string for the race. Decent enough effort beating Joey Sasa who has since franked the form. Perhaps tells you everything about the weakness of the race this year though. Melon has been pushed out by PP and the fact he hasnt run yet, surely suggests he is up against it. Crack Mome has also been pushed out by PP.
Im still hopeful Jenkins can run well in this. Too bad to be true last time, and maybe, just maybe he won't go right handed? I've topped up at 25/1 and happy enough to hope he can run into the places.
Disappointed it looks like Saturnas is going to be stepped up to the Neptune as think he could have run a big race in this.
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As you say mate, a weakish looking race. Many are dismissing Moon Racer too readily for me. The form of his last run hasn't worked out too well, but he has only one defeat on a racecourse; an excellent second to Blow by Blow last year when having been off for over a year.
The Pipes have talked about the Champion, which I think is very unlikely, but he is 8, which is old for a Supreme horse, and with the Champion looking equally weak, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see them throw a curve ball. If the Champion was completely ruled out, behind him in the Supreme, they all seem much of a muchness to me - Moon Racer is the only one at the minute that you can rely on imo. |
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Can see a couple of shocks this years fez and this race is quite possibly going to be one of them.
As weak as it looks on paper (i usually hate that term with a vengeance, i'm a huge believer in that horses can only beat what's put in front of them by whichever margin is allowed) it's bound to be a full field, whats that about 16? What's more i'm expecting a 4/1 the field market too. Are we looking for another Ezabiyan type 40/1er? Perhaps. My 2 darts so far have been Cilaos Emery at 14/1 and Capitaine at 25/1. |
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Stick with Jenkins, and Housesofparliament (I think this will be rerouted here) from the Triumph. Anyone with news about Epicuris, the ex-French Group horse? I thought he's been bought to go over jumps, no clue with which trainer though.
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Epicuris has gone to Kirk/Mullins for £147k in Oct 2016 Tattersalls sale - yet to appear on a racecourse.
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Why on earth would you think Housesofparliament would be rerouted to this?
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More chance of being in a burger stall at the festival than being rerouted to any race there.
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Defi De Seuil needs soft ground to show his best whereas Housesofparliament the direct opposite thus unlikely both will run in the same race; Charli Parcs and Landofhopeandglory are also JP owned and go on good/soft ground hence most likely runners in the Triumph; if there happens to be contrasting weather on Supreme and Triumph Hurdle days either Defi De Seuil or Housesofparliament will run.
Also JP has quite a few decent arrows for the Triumph but none, I believe, for the Supreme. As these two races are three days apart and more susceptible to a change in weather condition more likely than not at least one of the aforementioned could end up running in the Supreme. Another one of JP, Bhutan, has yet to debut over jumps, and he could be in the mix too. |
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Its the Moscow Flyer this weekend at Punch, a race that has previously been won by Vautour, Douvan and Min so we know Willie likes to send a good one, possibly his number one Supreme candidate.
Cialos Emery and Crack Mome are both entered, but despite the fact Cialos Emery has been very well backed for the Supreme the past few weeks and is almost half the price of Crack Mome with Paddy, the betting for this race suggest Crack Mome will be their first string. A bit of a puzzle. |
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Anyone heard anything about the well being of Avenir D'un Vie? He was a late non runner in the Grade 1 that Saturnas won at Leopardstown and is now friendless on here (out to 130). Quite fancied him for this.
 I have had a speculative bet on Finians Oscar @ 14/1 in case he runs here. Can take 6/1 nrnb if you prefer. Have also had a little on Saturnas @ 55 on here - he's not flash and is probably not quite good enough for either Cheltneham novice (though it might be a weak year), but I don't see why they want to step him up to 2m5f. He runs in the Delloite next over 2m2f which may tell us more - though that has been a much better trial for the Supreme than the Neptune (Brave Inca, Vatour, Champagne Fever, Like A Butterfly). |
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Im on Saturnas already for the Supreme... but sense that they think they have a few options in this and less in the Neptune. So Ruby pushing for Saturnas would make sense if they arent impressed with Invitation Only.
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New and fairly solid Supreme fav in approx' 20 mins time perhaps
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Nope
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Someone trying to lay moonracer at much bigger price than he is with the bookmakers
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Yeah real shame i really thought he looked the real deal, looked real good at 3 and 4 out and traded very short in running on here too. Thought he ran very greeen to the line
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Got to be honest, I wasn't that impressed with him. On debut or at any point during the race yesterday. Doesn't look like a potential star to me in any way. Wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even make the Festival.
Melon the only one left with th epotentisl to become the Mullins hotpot for the race. |
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Crack Mome looked to be too keen the whole way round and didn't jump that well with the mistake at the last being the final nail in his coffin.
A big field, fast pace and better ground might help him and at 20/1+ he is a plausible e/w option (as is the winner) given the open nature of the race, but no point going in now - wait till nrnb or final decs. |
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Any second now doesn't look to be heading to the supreme been matched for a £5 at 44s. Assume this means more likely that one of the two others might go although entirely possible that none of them go.
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Re Any Second Now -- after both wins, Ted Walsh doubted he'd be ready or suitable for Cheltenham. Obviously, his is not the final say but ... and it is not as if JP does not have other novice or juvenile hurdlers who can run here.
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Have just thrown a small dart at Neon Wolf
 for this at 50s (sportsbook) not even in the list on the exchange but after backing Elgin at 25s for this and having just had a good look at tomorrow's race the wolf does look to be his only danger and will surely shorten significantly if beating Elgin tomorrow. Shame he wasn't on exchange though too. |
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Great bet STS - his jumping was phenomenal.
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Maybe but won't be if they go Neptune which is what is being talked up at moment
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They all talk as if going for the Supreme ruins a future staying chaser.
How about War Of Attrition, Kicking King, Cue Card etc, |
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^^^ good point. (although over the years neptune has seen the better horses)
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Both races have had loads of excellent future top class chasers in them. Best Mate, Sprinter Sacre, Vautour, Douvan etc all ran in the Supreme.
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Yeah both races have produced plenty of decent horses, even finishing 2nd / 3rd in the neptune or supreme often signifies a really decent prospect. The Albert Bartlett on the otherhand is more of a slog and does seem to bottom some horses.
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I have been told that the Mullins stable really like Melon, and if all goes well with his debut the weekend the Supreme will be the target
I know its Mullins and you never know for sure, but the source is reliable. The 12s on offer now could look pretty big come Monday morning |
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Looks like it's Neptune for Neon Wolf according to markets, 12s this time yesterday 16s Saturday now only 8/1!
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Looks like it's Neptune for Neon Wolf according to markets, 12s this time yesterday 16s Saturday now only 8/1!
Oddly blue for the Supreme as well (albeit at 10/1 with 14/1 still in a couple of places). |
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Interesting, if so, against Finian's Oscar, Messire Des Obeaux, Any Second Now, Invitation Only and Saturnas unless a reroute by one of the present main protagonists.
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Just a few thoughts on Neon Wolf - I have no bets on him or in the Supreme to date.
I was at Haydock on Saturday and, as impressive as he was, I can't help thinking it was a weakish Grade 2 and additionally a totally different test to anything he would likely face at the Festival. I also read some strident views from Declan Phelan in Mark Howard's book that given NW was trained by Mags Mullins for his point and ridden by Patrick Mullins 'would Patrick allow a proper horse to slip through their hands? and 'Neon Wolf as of now has the smell of an expensive Mullins left over' Obviously Phelan gets a lot right and I'm quoting him with hindsight but I suspect the understated Harry Fry is a bit underrated both as a judge of horse flesh and as a trainer. One of his strengths is that he won't run his horses in races he does n't think are right for them - I saw him quoted as saying he swerved the Kauto Star novices chase at Kempton with American because of the ground before that one won at Warwick. So, given normal festival ground I would n't be surprised if NW bypassed the festival altogether and I doubt Fry is at all bothered about what the Betfair markets say. Not knocking your bet STS, clearly you have a nice voucher having backed him before he hacked up on Saturday. |
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^actually I can do better than my thoughts - here's Fry's quote from Pricewise preview today:
'We're in the lucky position of being able to consider all the options and he'll get entries in the Supreme and the Neptune, but there are no firm plans and he's not guaranteed to go to Cheltenham as he's a future chaser and a big heavy unit who would want slow ground.We'll do what's right for the horse. He's exciting.' |
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Interesting, thanks reaseheath.
If i was betting on whether he'd turn up at chelt though or not i'd be very long odds on turning up Incidentally, i popped into my local earlier on and despite being blue right across odds checker our local little independant (not naming no names) whom get their prices off of chisholms ahem oops sorry, were still 12/1 for the neptune so i've put a small ew saver on him for that. Also, still 8/1 for any race with a firm on odds checker  |
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What a bizzare thing for Declan Phelan to say. Given Mags Mullins owns him and his Dam i'm sure she was looking for the best price possible. Who knows maybe Kirk was interested but didn't want to go as high as 200K. I wonder does DP think he's a proper horse now?
 Hope he runs for you STS and we all get to see him in action again. GL |
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yep, I can't imagine Fry allowing considerations like that to worry him either - he'd just back his own judgement.
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Well I now have small stakes on both 12s for Neptune 50s supreme and 8s any lol. Split stakes around the board why not eh. The horse looks a monster and will more than certain to shorten dramatically should a target be made public! Can see it becoming fav for whatever race. Well jf with fo if Neptune was nominated. Got fo at 20s so looking like eating decent book
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Got finians Oscar at 20s Neptune and 12s any so looking like a decent book.
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12,s nep 50 supreme why need 8's for any plz explain
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Greed i suppose
Used up a free bet that was nearing it's expiry date lol so thought seeing as that price was out of line i just took that |
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Can anyone shed any light as to why melon is so short in this market as he is yet to see a British or Irish racecourse?
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