Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2017
champion hurdle 2017
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Moon racer is not far ahead of Ballyandy or Movewiththe times and they are only rated 147 and 146 after a big rise since Newbury! Moon Racer surely nowhere near 165 that is needed to win a CH.
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Shrews, I wouldn't see it that way. Limini running in the Mares is not because Footpad and WB are better, its because they are not 100% happy with VVM and Limini is now their best chance of winning the Mares.
For all that, both Footpad and WB have decent chances and wouldn't be a bit surprised if either won. |
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Yep, I think you're right there.
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1st Limini then VVM probable runners here, but now these two horses taking on each other in the Mares Hurdle, the most inconsequential race of the entire Cheltenham Festival. Only Mullins can engineer these scenarios...what a monumental climbdown by connections!
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The most inconsequential race of the festival??? How have you come to this conclusion? It is one of just 7 championship races at the festival. Its a mares hurdle. They are mares. Whats your problem this time?
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does anyone think the other jockeys will slow down the pace to get yanworth beat... they must know a fast pace will play into his hands. or is he not that scary a proposition that they'll think that deeply about the tactics?
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Most of the field lack that change of gear, not just Yanworth, BD definitely wants further IMO, If PM could get away with setting slow fractions he could nick the race...hard to think that he'd be allowed it though, but something to look at I/R.
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Well I am yet to see Yanworth outpaced enough to affect his chance of winning a race over 2m hurdling,and as this race is at a track that will suit him,unlike some others hes won at,i see no reason to worry on that score.
Given likely decent ground I am a tad worried about Brain Power however,but at least I have him on my side now as a cover bet. I hope Yanworth is the best horse in the race,but it is a tricky race with a few that may well be still improving. |
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the New One will also need a fast pace so I can't see it getting tactical. Yanworth looks the clearest winner of the meeting to me.
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I would love to see The New One or MTOY win this - mainly The New One because I've backed him every other time so why stop now
 . Plus I think it is great when one of the old guard win one of the big races. |
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I have Tent on here so would not mind if he won Chief,not TNO though!!May have to put a bit on him now
Yes,it would be nice I agree. |
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Managed to get on MTOY and TNO @ huge prices must admit im a bit of a sentimentalist and like to see the old guard perform well. But like the rest of the field i can quite easily see them getting a place .
Trouble is i cant see a winner in the field. im sure there will be and it will be quite obviuos after |
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Yeah Geoff, after months of debate on here I'm still no clearer on who the winner will be, but I'm really looking forward to it. I backed TNO and Moon Racer at big prices a while ago, and whilst I really want to back Petit Mouchoir too, I think two against the field at small stakes will be enough for me.
I think it would be one of those races where if you ran the same race 5 times, you could easily get 5 different winners, so it just depends on how things pan out on the day. Will the jockey make the move at the right time? Will the gap open up? Will any be hampered by fallers? Whilst there's no standout one (imo of course), luck in running and a clear passage through will be more important than ever. I think it will be a really tight race, with only a few lengths possibly covering the first three or four home. GL all. |
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I think it would be one of those races where if you ran the same race 5 times, you could easily get 5 different winners, so it just depends on how things pan out on the day. Will the jockey make the move at the right time? Will the gap open up? Will any be hampered by fallers?
nah yanworth wins. You've got to go with these horses at cheltenham who find at the end of their races so many people will lose their hard earned on bridle jobs this week, I prefer to end up with the winners  |
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I agree you very rarely get a Champion Hurdle winner winning on the bridle, the way you sometimes do with a novice hurdle winner or Arkle/QMCC winner; but I don't really think any of them in this race are bridle merchants - all have proven they can find off the bridle.
Yanworth can keep finding, but if his jockey takes a really wide path again, then it is irrelevant because he'll be out of the race. If they all run to form, they'll be very close jumping the last because whilst some may think Yanworth has the best form, if he does, it is not by much. You could argue that Yanworth's best run was when he demolished them in the Neptune trial when it was a bog, and the good ground could be an inconvenience. I don't normally like to sit on the fence, as I'll give an opinion either way, but in this race, it's too close to call to say one is way ahead and will win it. |
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He doesnt (Yanworth) jump well enough for me. 1 or 2 likened him to Hardy Eustace @ preview evenings. only thing they have in common is they ran in a Neptune/Ballmore?Sun Alliance... Hardy was a very slick hurdler that ran from the front on the inside everything Yanworth doesnt do. Oh and he won a Sun Alliiance....
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not worried about yanworths jumping at all.
been telling you guys for a while that yanworth will win but you don't listen. Oh well. |
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Haha, Lewisham you've also said Henderson's runners are 'flat track bullies who won't get up the hill' - pretty sure MTOY has finished 2nd in 2 Champion Hurdles & never been out of the frame at Cheltenham... not sure how that means he doesn't get up the hill but each to their own! GL for tomorrow!
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MTOY the ultimate nearly horse mate.
gl for tomorrow. |
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Couldnt solve it so took the 50s WB , on the basis that with a rest (at last ) and assuming a start he was overpriced , and he owes me nothing .
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I'm on MTOY at a big price but it is also more in hope than expectation although I think he has a chance of running into a place. I think Faugheen would have smashed this field in what is a poor renewal.
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Yanworth had the worst ride of the whole week last year and although Mark Walsh hasn't ridden him before he can't get a worse ride surely?
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I think Yanworth will be taken wide as I think he needs plenty of daylight to see the hurdle coming, he just lands in a bit of a heap too many times and all those times where the jockey just has to ride him away from the hurdle will add up in the end IMO.
I like it when I come round to a horse in a race that I had previously discounted out of hand because of simply towing the party line so to speak. To that end I am coming around to PM, crucially he has gears and "if" he can get the right fractions set and have something saved he might just be able to catch out those slow boats behind!  Like many others though, it's not a strong opinion but I do think it is a plausible one. Heart ruling head I would love MTOY to win because the natural talent this horse had in his prime deserved him a CH win, if only he relaxed more through his races back then. |
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I don't think Yanworth is anything like Hardy Eustace but is very similar to Brave Inca in my opinion
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I can't have Brain Power at all, slammed in the Greatwood (but lets blame the ground or he was still immature - all the old classics) and 6/1 off the back of a couple of handicap wins. Not for me in a Championship race. Why would The New One suddenly reverse form with Yanworth, just can't see it from the Xmas hurdle unless Yanworth runs lame or something. Don't really see Petit Moucher reversing form with Buvier Dair from the Supreme or Aintree. Moon Racer didn't look like a Champion Hurdle horse when it won at Cheltenham when it was in the right place off a joke pace and he hasn't run for 6 months. I just don't think Wicklow Brave is good enough unless several horses run below par and the only way I could see Ch'Tibello reversing form with Yanworth is if the latter runs lame or if they go a slow pace , neither of which is likely in my opinion.
If there is a shock in store then I see if coming from either Footpad (quietly brought along, ran better than finishing position suggests in last years Triumph and Mullins not running VVM in this race maybe they quietly fancy Footpad to run a big race) and Sceau Royal who travelled really well in the Kingwell and King was visably disappointed with this finishing effort - maybe they have tidied up any loose ends. I expect Yanworth to win well but Footpad and Sceau Royal look the jokers in the pack at big prices and whilst he has to improve, Buvier Dair is unexposed and open to any amount of improvement. I can't have anything myself - just my opinion. |
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* anything else
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So you expect Yanworth will win easily, but you can't have anything in the race?
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I just don't think My Tent of Yours wants to win races that much, not a great trait up the Cheltenham hill. Yanworth badly needed the run at Ascot first time up this season so his performance actually impressed me on the run in the way he dug in to see it out. I would prefer a horse to get slightly outpaced and stay on well than travel like a dream only to bottle it up the hill - refer to Harchibald, My Tent Or Yours etc
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lewisham ranger - I amended my post immediately. I posted an opinion which we are all entitled to yet you focuses on the typo! Comical - this place hasn't changed...
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* focused
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sorry swagger, been a long day!
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I think Footpad prefers soft/softish ground to show his best, the opposite of Brain Power.
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just seen the betting in the post from nov 1st.
faugheen 3/1 annie power 3/1 apple's jade 8/1 altior 12/1 vroum vroum mag 16/1 yanworth 16/1 yorkhill 16/1 ivanovich gorbatov 25/1 only yanworth made the field, the perils of ante-post betting. |
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unbelievable innit?
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That is an unusually high number but I always expect at least 50% of the November lists to be non runners.
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Going a bit wide until the water jump is OK but there are only 3 hurdles in the last mile so you need to be no more than one off the rail from there. That is why Ruby managed to inflict his only defeat in the Neptune. Ruby went at least 6 lengths less distance in the last mile.
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ashleigh 14 Mar 17 11:33 Joined: 23 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 8,424 | Blogger: ashleigh's blog just seen the betting in the post from nov 1st. faugheen 3/1 annie power 3/1 apple's jade 8/1 altior 12/1 vroum vroum mag 16/1 yanworth 16/1 yorkhill 16/1 ivanovich gorbatov 25/1 only yanworth made the field, the perils of ante-post betting. bookies must have made a small fortune already on those who haven't turned up, and meeting hasn't even started yet to think many were suggesting that Yanworth should go to the stayers as a potentially easier race to win, and now he's clear favourite! :D |
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Making myself slightly nervous by comparing supreme winner to petit mouchoir
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lewisham ranger - there you go my son!
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W.D backers an unsolvable puzzle 4 me apart from the false fav.
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