Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2017
champion hurdle 2017
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I think UDS would be going to the QM if boarding at a different stable. Whether he is a match for Douvan is another matter. However, I hope connections of Douvan do not duck Altior later this year in the Tingle Creek (he chickened out last year) or next Cheltenham; Douvan has beaten chasers none of whom was Grade 1 status.
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Maybe FTV,but it does seem to me that we have a lack of real good horses at our elite distances at the festival.
If they aint good enough then do we want them in those races,surely better to have a competitive race they can run in instead? Tailed off in the Gold Cup or Queen Mum cos don't stay or not quick enough? I don't want that. |
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isn't that what aintree is for? (or always was, perhaps times have changed)
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fair enough Budd but when we get exceptional horses( Douvan, Altior, Faugheen etc) we are going to get uncompetitive,lob sided races. I'd rather have it this way rather than turning these races into handicaps or creating too many alternative races to facilitate more winners.
Impossible, what nonsense you spout. Chickened out! He ran in the grade 1 chase in leopardstown in December and he's heading for the QM next week.You can judge for yourself about chickening out then. And Sizing john is a proper grade 1 horse is he not? |
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I too think UDS would be heading for the Queen Mum if in a different stable,but then again if he were trained elsewhere he would have contested a Champion Hurdle and who knows maybe still hurdling.But that's another story.
Its a shame trainers use the Ryanair to swerve horses away from the distance where their best from is just to try and get more winners. That's not what the race was meant for,it was meant for horses that are best at around 2 and a halfm,and their are plenty around. If you look at some of the real good horses we have had over the years.....Kauto produced what I thought was one of his best at Ascot over 2 and a half,Vautour in the JLT and Ryanair........Wayward Lad,Florida Pearl,One Man,and no doubt plenty more would have relished a championship race over 2 and a half miles.And we could have had some classics. Maybe we are stuck in the past re the Gold Cup!!! Maybe we should reduce the distance of our Blue Riband event!!! Hang on I shall get my crash helmet!!! |
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Brainpower - Henderson today quoted:
He wouldn't want bullying. He is by Kalanisi and they just take a bit of humouring. Those were tough races he won, but he was able to boss it all the way through and he was very good to watch. Now Petit Mouchoir needs to be very handy and people are saying Yanworth 'should' be handy to have a clear look at the hurdle AND to utilise his stamina. If this ends up being a 3 way way fight like this who will benefit? Could it be that these three will just run the legs of the others like R-O-Ruby did ... I am starting to think so. People keep saying how weak it is but boy, I am so looking forward to it. |
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Can't see Yanworth being ridden too handy myself. Will just drop in behind whoever takes it up and wait to pounce up the hill. Then power away from them
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Lets hope so Catch.
Its a very intriguing race.Tactics will certainly be interesting. |
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yanworth supporters are placing their trust in a hithertoo poor jumper in poor races (at least the ones he's ran in this year) under a new jockey who's ridden 2 winners from 16 rides in britain over the past 5 years, i'd be surprised if he finishes in first three, likely to be outpaced and staying on way too late. its a desperate champion hurdle for yanworth to be fav and we could be looking at a flakey dove/katchit/punjabi type of result where form goes out the window
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others might travel better, they might jump better but yanworth will get it done where it matters
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Well I am putting my trust in a horse that is unbeaten in all hurdle races at 2m,and imo has the best form this season over the CH distance. Jumping issue is exaggerated imo, and not bothered at all on that score.
Jockey has vast experience over a fair few years now,and whilst not BG hes fine as far as I am concerned. Mind you,having said all that, I did back Yanworth last year after his novice win at Cheltenham. It is possible I would not be backing him at current odds though,as it looks an open race, and I have backed Brain Power as a saver,if he gets decent ground hes a big player imo. |
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With Yanworth and Brain Power you are almost there, full house if Petit Mouchoir is included, I think.
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well thats at least three of you i'm looking forward to catching up with on tuesday around 3.45!
seriously, there isn't too much good form this year, hence my suspicion/prediction for a 'shock' result, maybe sceau royal, footpad or moon racer |
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 Yeh,well, we get it right and we get it wrong. Its tricky this year,so none of us should be surprised if we do get it wrong. I do agree, there are a few lurking at big odds,no harm in a few bob on the day,just in case. |
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Usually the tricky ones on paper produce the most easy and convincing result ie a clear winner and no photo required.
1) Yanworth 2) Brain Power 3) Petit Mouchoir |
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if you're right, why would you have to catch up with us?
if you're right, so what, move on. I won't be coming on and rubbing it in to those who doubted Yanworth if he wins Honest |
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Gordon. Yanworth clearly has holes in him... but if you are so against him, who are you backing? Every runner has serious question marks.
He might not have done it that prettily, but in the past two seasons he'[s only been beaten once, by an exceptional horse who looks one of the bankers of the week. I can't have him out of the frame. |
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I've had a very small bet on buveur d'air who i backed when at aintree last spring and who finished third in what looks one of the best supremes of recent times, however i'm going to look closely again on tuesday morning when the ground is confirmed (although everybody knows that claisse will be pulling out all stops for good to soft) and then backing one of the outsiders, leaning towards sceau royal today but that may change
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But thats my point. Fair enough you fancy those two, (and you might be right!) but surely anyone impartial would find holes in the two you mention much more easily, than they would Yanworth.
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i'm impartial in as far as i've small stakes on buveur d'air but my main point is that if a poor jumper with an inexperienced (in this country and at cheltenham) jockey is fav for the CH, it can't be up to standard and expect a surprise result...holes everywhere to be honest but bda at 9/2 and drifting and sr at 33s appeal more to me
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Brain Power over Yanworth IMO (7's v 3's). Brain Power remains very unexposed at this level and did well when thrown in at the deep end in the grade 1 at Punchestown last year. Has clearly improved and clocked some very impressive times under big weights in two handicaps.
I can't help shaking the fact that Alan King wanted to up Yanworth in trip and JP elected to revert Buveur D'air back to hurdles with both Yanworth and MTOY as strong contenders. It doesn't sing confidence from connections and when you add in question marks about his jumping, I think you can take him on. With Brain Power you have a completely unexposed horse that has little to find on ratings with Yanworth, he jumps well, 2m is his ideaL trip, he is trained by Hendo who has won this race 5 times and back home he rides alongside Altior. Altior would be odds on for this and Yorkhill would be favorite. Brain Power works with Altior, has beaten Yorkhill and is more than double the odds of Yanworth. So I will take Brain Power |
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I'm surprised there's not more love for MTOY. He's arguably had a better prep this year - in the sense that he's been racing and sound - I think the plan was always to leave him off after Christmas.
I suppose you could be put off by his runs earlier on in the season - but at least two of them were nonsense to me. If he repeated what he did last year, he'd go very close imo. |
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^ although he's not actually won a race for three years
 Holes in all of 'em, too true. |
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ReaseHeath - I agree. MTOY had 15 days between Cheltenham and Kempton, Yanworth had 37 days between Ascot and Kempton. I am convinced the race came too soon for MTOY who jumped the second from last ahead of Yanworth at Kempton and then just got tired. Back to good ground, fresh, I can see him giving Yanworth a real race.
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About MTOY i can too but his price is about right as it stands now. I'd had TNO same price as MTOY that is the only part of the market which is wrong imo
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the fact that the trainer wanted to go up in trip doesn't bother me. Charlie Swan who knows a thing or two about winning champion hurdles, feels you need a horse that stays further than two miles in this race, and yanworth ticks that box nicely.
it always amazes me every year, that horses get sucked in by these bridle horses like MTOY. don't they realize you need a horse that relishes the hill to win at cheltenham? or is their memory faulty? |
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Nothing wrong with my memory - I don't disparage other people's opinions either.
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2014 Champion Hurdle comments:
Took strong hold, tracked leaders, not fluent 4 out, tracked leaders 2 out, chased winner last, strong run under pressure run-in, finished well, just failed (tchd 10/3) Doesn't sound like a bridle horse from that write up. Can't see it winning, but if ground is right and price ok, I might back it for a place on the day. Have backed Brain Power, but feel Yanworth is most likely winner. However, I missed the prices and am hoping that someone takes a stand against it in the day of race market and can get on then |
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If Henderson/McManus thought MTOY had a good chance, would they have brought Buveur D'air back from Chasing? Says it all to me.
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Fair comment, but the horse probably rated too high for any chance in a handicap so if it doesn't run here, it doesn't have (m)any other options.
A decent pace next week seems assured, so perhaps he's in to ensure it for Yanworth who will definitely want a strongly run race. So many times though, previous festival form is a major asset and three Grade 1 runner up spots at the festival can't just be dismissed |
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I see that but neither are averse to having multiple bullets to fire.
JP had a 1-2 in 2014 CH and Henderson had 1-2-3 in the Triumph in 2015. Plus Buveur D'Air's jumping was sketchy at Warwick in my opinion. And , probably more pertinently, in theory it enables them to cover more bases in terms of the ground - though it's a bit early to be pigeonholing Buveur D'Air as a soft ground horse. |
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BD not great over fences at warwick and would be a million against altior in the arkle
that's why they switched BD back from chasing imo |
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Just to change the subject just a little, i'd now be amazed if VVM don't run here
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As most have agreed, there are holes in most of them. Given how open it is, I am surprised so many are having multiple bets in it -- I think you could back three or four and not get the winner...
Personally, while fully accepting a lot is taken on trust and it is something of a 'feel' bet, I think Buveur D'Air is by far the most exciting in the race. I love his jumping, love his acceleration, and think he stays well and wants softish ground -- all of these make him an ideal candidate for the race, and I think he's the one open to the most improvement. Have said it before and will say it again -- I don't like Yanworth for this. I think he's simply too slow to get rolling and his jumping isn't good enough. He has got away with it so far down to his class and temperament (he really battles for you) but he has been doing it against the likes of Lil Rockerfeller, the old boys and Ch'Tibello. I think he'll be out of his comfort zone here. |
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tom. Just out of interest, what makes you think the fact BD wants sot ground is a positive for this? Its going to be Good to Soft at best and last year even though they called it that, it rode much more like good ground on the first day, and we have had a much drier run up this time around?
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Yeh,we have had many differences of opinion re Yanworth In the build up,and probably more to come.
Mines a lot different to yours Tom,i think the conditions of a Champion Hurdle are tailor made for the horse. Fast pace,galloping track and uphill finish......he will love it imo. Still, we shall find out soon. |
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I think that if Buveir Dair wins the CH it will be along the same lines as Yanworth may, by outstaying them as I'm actually concerned by BD lack of crucial pace when the pace quickens, I think he lacked it approaching and off the home bend last year and against PM at Liverpool despite travelling so well, he couldn't show a turn of foot, instead it took him a bit of an age to get past in the end.
Henderson was even saying after the Supreme that he would want to go further, however hasn't he said this year that he now thinks that he is a quicker horse, that remains a concern though but I am coming round to him as he is unexposed really compared to Yanworth who we really know what he is. So much depends on PM and the pace he sets, if connections of this horse have any sense they will try if they can to wait in front if they can get away with it, which they may, ROR was allowed to. If PM can do this, the lack of a turn of foot in behind may give him just enough time to get a length or two on them and hold on If he is given an easy lead and sets no pace he'd be a big play I/R. |
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To win BD will have to be good enough to do a Denman of the hurdles and just gallop them into the ground from the front.
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well given he's a hold up horse that's going to be rather difficult
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